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The History and Future of Space Weather Forecasting

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The History and Future of Space Weather Forecasting The History and Future of Space Weather Dr. Thomas Berger NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center HAO 75th Anniversary September 2, 2015 18th and 19th Century The Subject: Aurora Borealis Geodetic Expedition to Lapland Pierre Maupertuis, 1736 A Treatise on Meteorology Elias Loomis, 1868 1580 Augsburg, Germany 17-March-2015 ©Joe McCabe 22-January-2012 Aurorae are linked to terrestrial “Magnetic Storms” Kew Observatory, London, 1859 1852: Edward Sabine asserts that magnetic storms are correlated with sunspots... ...but there was no physical mechanism to explain a magnetic storm on Earth originating at the Sun. Then on the morning of September 1st, 1859... Redhill, Surrey, England Richard Carrington records the first known “white light flare” 1826 — 1875 September 1st, 1859 11:20 am local time A sudden magnetic jump was later found at exactly the same time… Kew Observatory, London, September 1st 1859 ...and approximately 17.5 hrs later, a HUGE magnetic storm commenced: Kew Observatory, London, September 2nd 1859 The storm was detected all over the world... Colaba Observatory, Bombay, India September 1—3 1859 …and auroral displays were observed as far south as Honolulu and Venezuela. “The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with “The red light was so vivid that the roofs of the houses and the leaves of the trees appeared as if covered with blood” Report of the aurora seen in San Salvador, September 2, 1859 1861: Balfour Stewart proposes a link between Carrington’s observation and the geomagnetic storm. If no connexion had been known to subsist between these two classes of phenomena, it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this “... it would, perhaps, be wrong to consider this in any other light than a casual coincidence; but since General SABINE has proved that a relation subsists between magnetic disturbances and sun spots, it is not impossible to suppose that in this case our luminary was taken in the act.” 1828 — 1887 On the Great Magnetic Disturbance Which Extended from 28 August to 7 September 1859, as Recorded by Photography at the Kew Observatory, Phil. Trans. of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 151, (1861). 1863: George Airy, Astronomer Royal 1835 — 1881, refutes any connection… On the Diurnal and Annual Inequalities of Terrestrial Magnetism “If they point to any cycle at all, it is 6 or 6 1/2 years…” George Airy, Proc. Roy. Soc. 1863 1801 — 1892 1892: Lord Kelvin uses math… with bad physics. 1. Calculate the energy in a terrestrial magnetic storm. 2. Assume that the Sun is the source of that magnetic energy. 3. Assume the Sun emits this energy isotropically through all space. 4. The energy output of the Sun in several hours = its normal output in 4 months! 1824 — 1907 Royal Society Presidential Address Nature, 47, 1892 1897: J.J. Thomson discovers the electron “Something corpuscular that carries electric current” 1856 — 1940 Courtesy AIP, www.aip.org/history c. 1900: Kristian Birkeland proposes that electrons from the Sun cause the Aurora. Terrella experiments, 1867 — 1917 1908, 49 after Carrington’s flare: George Ellery Hale uses the Zeeman effect to measure magnetism in sunspots. 1868 — 1938 Mt. Wilson Observatory, California 1928: The first “space weather” forecast of radio conditions from the Eiffel Tower, using G. Marconi’s special receivers. 1874 — 1937 1933: S. Chapman suggests plasma ejected during a flare can distort the Earth’s magnetic field. Chapman and Bartels (1940) 1940s: Movies are the frontier of solar physics... …and the corona is studied during eclipses and shown to have a temperature of ~1,000,000 K: plasma HAO Eclipse Expedition: 12 November 1966 at Pulacayo, Bolivia (altitude 13,000 ft). 1950s: Eugene Parker proposes the “Solar Wind” b. 1927 Thesis advisor to Tom Bogdan www.lmsal.com 1-Dec-1965: First regular daily report and forecast of solar conditions from “Space Disturbances Forecast Center” in Boulder, Colorado in support of NASA’s Gemini mission. FROM SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST CENTER ESSA BOULDER COLO VIA AGIWARN TRIAL SPACE DISTURBANCE FORECAST' NUf1BER 201 JUNE 1966 A. THE SUN CONT INUES RELAT IVEL Y INACT IVE TODAY. ONLY SUBFLARES HAVE BEEN REPORTED eMMA IN REGIONS 8340 AND 8352. THE SUNSPOT GROUPS . IN REGIONS 8340 AND 3344 ARE DECLINING. T\vO TINY NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE APPEARED AT N17WOl N11Wll. THE SUNSPOT GROUP REPORTED YE STERDAY AT N 18E38 HAS NOW VANISHED. B. THE PROBABILIT IES FOR FLARES AND PROT.ON EVENTS FOR THE THREE DAY PER 100 JUNE 21 t23 ARE AS IfIGURES ARE FOR EACH OF THE THREE DAYSI IMPORTANCE ONE FLARES 85/85/85 IMPORTANCE TWO FLARES .2/212 IMPORlANCE THREE FLARE S 0/0/0 IMPORTANCE FOUR FLARES 0/0/0 PROT ON EVENT S Q/O/O C. THE 10.7 FLUX tODAy \lJAS 91. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR THE THREE DAY PER laD JUNE 21 t23 ARE' 91/91/92 .... ." D. THE FREDERICKSBURG 'MAGNETIC A INDEX YESTERDAY WAS '6. TODAY IT WILL BE ABOUT 6. THE PREDICTED VALUES FOR JUNE 21t23 ARE 6/4/,4. RMt'1XX 1969: radio observations of the Sun indicate some kind of plasma expulsion 80 MHz radio observation of the Sun, 1-March-1969 1971: NRL scientists use space-based Lyot coronagraph to produce artificial eclipses... OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded ...and identify “Coronal Mass Ejections” or CMEs OSO-7, 1971: the first optical CME ever recorded 1973: Skylab orbiting solar laboratory discovers “coronal holes”: recurring geomagnetic storms. 27 days solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov 1973: Skylab SO-52 coronagraph (HAO) 10-June-1973 Today: Solar Magnetic Eruptions Today: Space Weather Forecasting 1. Flare “Radio Blackout” Alert Issued upon detection of X-ray flare by GOES satellite Lead time = 0 2. Radiation Storm Warning Issued if/when GOES detects rising radiation levels Lead time = minutes 3a. Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued upon CME detection in SOHO coronagraph Lead time = 15 — 72 hours 3b. Geomagnetic Storm Warning Issued upon CME detection at L1 by ACE satellite Lead time = 15 — 60 minutes 3c. Geomagnetic Storm Alert Issued upon real-time geomagnetic storm detection Current conditions, Nowcasting NOAA SWPC Space Weather Scales Lead time: 0 Lead time: minutes Lead time: 12 — 72 hours Ionospheric Conditions? Space Weather in the Department of Commerce 1942: National Bureau of Standards Interservice Radio Propagation Laboratory (IRPL). Newbern Smith, Director. 1945: IRPL —> Central Radio Propagation Laboratory (CRPL). 1954: CRPL moves from Washington, D.C. to Boulder, CO. Includes Space Environment Forecasting Division (SEFD). Connie Sawyer, 1-Sep-2015 Space Weather in the Department of Commerce 1965: CRPL merges with Weather Bureau and Coast and Geodetic Survey to form Environmental Science Services Administration (ESSA). • Space Disturbances Laboratory (SDL) • Space Disturbances Forecast Center (SDFC) 1970: ESSA —> National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • SDL —> Space Environment Laboratory (SEL). Don Williams, Director. • SDFC —> Space Environment Services Center (SESC). Bob Doeker, Director. • USAF begins operational coordination. 1986: SEL Director Ernie Hildner. Retires in 2005. 1995: NOAA Reorganization • SEL —> Space Environment Center (SEC). Space Weather in the Department of Commerce 2005: SEC becomes part of National Weather Service (NWS) under the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). • SEC —> Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). SWPC Forecaster Meghan Stockman on the Weather Channel, July 2013 2007–2012: SWPC Director Tom Bogdan. Space Weather in the Department of Commerce 2014: UK Met Office opens Space Weather Operations Center NOAA/SWPC trains and collaborates with UKMet forecasters. UK Met Office, Exeter 2014: SWPC Director Tom Berger The Future: New Observations DSCOVR GOES-R In testing at L1 Launching in 2016 COSMIC-2 Launching in 2017 The Future: New Models Sun:! WSA Operational! Aurora:! Solar Wind: ! OVATION Operational! Enlil Operational! Magnetosphere:! U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016! Ionosphere:! IPE Operational in 2017! Thermosphere:! WAM Operational in 2015! Ground:! E-Field Operational in 2017! FY16 PBR: +$1.5M for SWPC R2O “Testbed” activities! National Space Weather Strategy Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is chartered at the White House/OSTP Tasked to develop: • National Space Weather Strategy to ensure national readiness for an extreme space weather event. • Space Weather Action Plan to implement strategy with a whole community approach. Will von Dauster, NOAA Thank You!.
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