INDEX (e-Scan16-28 Feb 2021)
S No Rank & Name Country Page(s)
1. Brig RK Bhutani (Retd) CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo- 2-5 Politics & Geo-Economics) 2. Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri IOR, ANC AND INDO- 5-8 PACIFIC 3. Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari MYANMAR AND NORTH 8-10 KOREA 4. Col Siddhartha Sharma WEST ASIA 10-11
5. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) UNITED STATES 11-12
6. Brig Rajat Upreti MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI 12-15 LANKA
7. Col Siddhartha Sharma IRAN 15
8. Col Siddhartha Sharma AFGHANISTAN 15-16
9. Air Cmde T Chand (Retd) EURASIA 16-17
10. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) SPACE 17-19
2
ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 16-28 FEB 2021
CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)
Beijing Tightens Grip on South China Sea with 800,000-square-Mile City. The U.S. Naval War College brought out a new report about one of the world’s oddest cities. Sansha City was founded by China in 2012 and is the world’s largest city by area, covering 800,000 square miles of the South China Sea within the “nine-dash line” that China claims for itself. That makes it 1,700 times the size of New York City. Most of Sansha City is salt water, although it includes the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam and Taiwan claim, and the Spratly Islands, several of which are claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.
City Hall is on Woody Island, one of the Paracels. “Once a remote outpost, Woody Island has become a bustling hub of activity,” says the 57-page, heavily footnoted report, which was written by China expert Zachary Haver. “The island now boasts expanded port infrastructure, seawater desalination and sewage treatment facilities, new public housing, a functioning judicial system, 5G network coverage, a school, and regular charter flights to and from the mainland.”
Beyond Woody Island, Sansha City is “developing tourism in the Paracel Islands, attracting hundreds of newly registered companies, cultivating aquaculture, and encouraging long-term residency,” the report says.
The obvious question is why China is going to such lengths to build a civilian infrastructure in a watery region that is effectively under control of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and China’s semi-militarized coast guard.
The report provides the answer -China’s system of “military-civil fusion” is “a mechanism to govern contested areas as if they were Chinese territory,” like any mainland city. Sansha City is effectively an extension of the Chinese Communist Party.
“The expansion of the city’s party-state institutions allows municipal authorities to directly govern contested areas of the South China Sea and ensures the primacy of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interests in local decision-making,” the report says.
Sansha City is what China calls a prefecture-level city, which on the mainland is an administrative unit that includes a central city as well as surrounding cities, towns, villages, and rural areas. In other words, it is geographically large—but not this large.
Comments. Though Sansha City is just nine years old but China has created enough infrastructures for settling in for a long stay. In entrusting these responsibilities to the municipal party-state and supporting the city’s development, Beijing has revealed that its ambitions extend beyond dominating the South China Sea via CCG [Chinese Coast Guard] and PLA Navy operations. By establishing normalized administration in these islands, China is converting South China Sea into de facto Chinese territory.
3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/china-has-an-800-000-square-mile-city- in-the-south-china-sea
Biden’s Early Policy ‘Smacks of Trumpism’, Affords Little Optimism, China State Media Says. Chinese state media said President Joe Biden’s early policy toward Beijing “smacks of Trumpism,” signaling new concern over the prospects for a reset in ties with the U.S.
The official China Daily said in an editorial 25 February that the Biden administration’s approach so far “affords little optimism.” Many of the new U.S. leader’s policies seem similar to those of former President Donald Trump, according to the English-language newspaper, whose opinion pages are often used to send messages to foreign audiences.
The piece cited Biden’s comments last week at the Munich Security Conference, where he said: “We have to push back against the Chinese government’s economic abuses and coercion that undercut the foundations of the international economic system.”
Also singled out were remarks by Biden’s nominee, William Burns, to lead the Central Intelligence Agency. He said at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee that China’s “adversarial, predatory leadership” is the biggest threat to the U.S.
“Such incendiary remarks harp on the same tune as that heard from the previous administration, and are centered on a zero-sum mentality which sees China’s gain as the U.S.’ loss,” the China Daily said. “Such messages from Washington are unhelpful for the rebuilding of a sound and healthy bilateral relationship”. The Trump administration’s four years were marked by tough rhetoric and tensions with China on issues from trade and tech to human rights and political freedoms in Hong Kong. https://theprint.in/world/bidens-early-policy-smacks-of-trumpism-affords-little-optimism-china- state-media-says/612101/
China's Debt-trap Diplomacy? Beijing Delays Kenya's $245 Million Debt in 'Repayment Holiday'. The Chinese government has postponed Kenya's debt repayments worth $245 million due over the next six months in a 'debt repayment holiday' in what is seen as another example of Beijing's debt-trap diplomacy.
Kenya was scheduled to pay 27 billion shillings ($245 million) to China from January through June. The announcement of delayed payment came a week after the Paris Club of creditors agreed to delay $300 million in payments by the government of East Africa’s biggest economy.
The East African nation has been struggling with repayments to Beijing's Export– Import Bank of China to fund the building of a standard gauge railway, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as some of its projects are not generating enough income to pay for themselves, according to a South China Morning Post report.
The facility was to be repaid in 30 installments from January 21 to July 21, 2035, at a price of Libor plus 3 per cent, the Bloomberg said. 4
According to reports, Chinese loans comprised 21 per cent of Kenya’s external debt at the end of June 2020, compared with the World Bank’s 25 per cent. Sovereign bondholders held another 19 per cent, commercial banks 11 per cent and the African Development Bank 7.5 per cent. Kenya was due to pay China about $499 million by the end of 2020, as per World Bank Debtor Reporting System.
This month, Chinese foreign ministry said that Beijing had signed payment suspension agreements with 12 African countries and provided waivers on mature interest-free loan, SCMP reported.
Comments. A recent report by Center for Global Development, a non-profit research organization, found that eight BRI recipient countries—Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan—are at a high risk of debt distress due to BRI loans. Now twelve countries from Africa itself have been identified by China for loan payment suspension. China will find it difficult to sustain the BRI projects as envisaged in the original plan. https://www.news18.com/news/world/chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-beijing-delays-245-million-in- debt-repayment-holiday-3441506.html China Calls for a Reset, but U.S. says Beijing Trying to 'Avert Blame'. Chinese state councilor and foreign minister, Wang Yi said on Monday the United States and China could work together on various issues if they repaired their damaged bilateral relations, but Washington accused Beijing of trying to avert blame for its actions. Wang said Beijing stood ready to reopen constructive dialogue after ties sank to their lowest in decades under former president Donald Trump. But he urged Washington to respect China’s core interests, stop “smearing” the ruling Communist Party, stop interfering in Beijing’s internal affairs, and stop “conniving” with separatist forces for Taiwan’s independence.
He called on the United States to remove tariffs on Chinese goods and abandon what he said was an irrational suppression of the Chinese tech sector.
In response, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters: “His comments reflect a continued pattern of Beijing’s tendency to avert blame for its predatory economic practices, its lack of transparency, its failure to honor its international agreements, and its repression of universal human rights.”
Before Wang spoke at a forum sponsored by the foreign ministry, officials played footage of the “Ping-Pong diplomacy” of 1972 when an exchange of table tennis players cleared the way for then-U.S. President Richard Nixon to visit China.
“Over the past few years, the United States basically cut off bilateral dialogue at all levels,” Wang said in prepared remarks translated into English.
“We stand ready to have candid communication with the U.S. side, and engage in dialogues aimed at solving problems.”
Wang pointed to a recent call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden as a positive step. 5
Washington and Beijing have clashed on multiple fronts including trade, accusations of human rights crimes against the Uighur Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region, and Beijing’s territorial claims in the resources-rich South China Sea.
Comments. There are enough indications that the Biden administration will maintain pressure on Beijing. Earlier, there was a feeling that President Biden would reverse all the policy initiatives of Donald Trump but the foreign policy initiatives are based on national interests of a country and that very rarely change with the succession of a new government. Confronting China is one of the few areas where Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Congress find common ground. Therefore, the president has voiced concern about China’s “coercive and unfair” trade practices, its predatory economic practices, its lack of transparency and endorsed a Trump administration determination that China has committed genocide in Xinjiang. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-wang-yi/china-calls-for-reset-in-sino-u-s- relations-idUSKBN2AM018
IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri
China to Conduct Extensive Month-long Naval Exercises in South China Sea. China has announced that its Navy will hold military exercises in the South China Sea for the whole month in Mar 2021. These military exercises will be held in a circular zone in an area west of Leizhou Peninsula, till 31 March 2021. Since Jul 2020, China has held several exercises in the area, indicating that it has become the usual location for its naval exercises. China's Maritime Safety Administration has issued navigational warning prohibiting entry of other vessels in the area. The notice though, did not elaborate on details of the exercises.
Comments. This announcement comes at a time when the US military has been frequently sending reconnaissance aircraft and ships to the region. The latest US activities involved deployment of reconnaissance aircraft of different types, including an MQ-4C maritime reconnaissance UAV, an EP-3E spy plane and an RC-135U strategic reconnaissance aircraft on 24, 25 and 27 Feb 2021. USNS Impeccable ocean surveillance ship is also present in the vicinity. These kinds of operations have military significance because they allow the US to gather military intelligence on the activities of PLA Navy, including eavesdropping on military communications, recording electromagnetic signal patterns of Chinese equipment and planting underwater listening devices to track PLA submarines.
In addition, a French naval flotilla comprising an amphibious assault ship and a frigate is on its way to the South China Sea; and they are scheduled to transit through the area twice. The French warships are scheduled to sail through the Qiongzhou Strait – which China calls as its inland sea – between Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island. China feels that it will continue facing pressure from the sea, as the US, its allies – and even India – could keep the region stirred up. Hence it has scheduled these extensive exercises to show commensurate amount of force.
Source:https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202102/1216821.shtml
Iran, Russia Conduct Joint Naval Drill in Indian Ocean. Iranian forces conducted a two-day naval exercise with Russia named ‘security Belt 2021’ in the northern part of the Indian Ocean, which commenced on 16 Feb 2021. Ships and forces from the 6 navy divisions of both, the Iranian army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) participated in the exercise, alongside several vessels from the Russian navy. The exercises included live firing on surface and air targets, rescuing of hijacked ships, as well as search-and-rescue and anti-piracy operations. Indigenously built Iranian frigate Jamaran, commissioned in 2010, led the exercise while Iranian and Russian navy helicopters provided air monitoring and support. The exercises were supposedly conducted over an area of 17,000 square km (6,500 square miles).
Iran said the intended outcomes of the current exercise were exchange of information and technical and tactical experience, while becoming better-equipped to ‘fight piracy at sea and terrorism’. Commander of the Iranian navy said that the exercise was flexibly designed to allow other countries to join in at any time, adding that the Indian navy and Chinese navy had been requested to join.
Comments. The Indian navy however issued a statement denying India’s participation in the exercise. Participation of China could also not be confirmed. Iran’s army and the IRGC have conducted several exercises in the past two months in a show of force amid tensions with the US. These exercises saw a variety of locally manufactured long-range missiles, drones, tanks, warships, submarines and helicopters tested on land, sea and air targets. Iran, Russia and China have participated in a similar exercise in 2019.
Source:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/16/india-joins-irans-navy-drill-with-russia- china-also-expected
Third ‘Quad’ Ministers Meeting Signals Closer Alignment Among Participants. Dr. S. Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs participated in the 3rd India-Australia- Japan-USA Quad Ministerial Meeting held on 18 Feb 2021 with his counterparts Foreign Minister Marise Payne, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Ministers recognised that the changes underway in the world make a strong case for their countries to work closely together. The Ministers emphasized their commitment to upholding a rules-based international order, underpinned by respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, rule of law, transparency, freedom of navigation in the international seas, and peaceful resolution of disputes. They reiterated common vision for a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific region, with clear support for ASEAN cohesion and centrality. It was noted that the Indo-Pacific concept had gathered growing international support, including in Europe. The Ministers exchanged views on furthering cooperation in areas such as maritime security, HADR, supply chain resilience and counter- terrorism.
India officially used the term ‘Quad’ for the first time, to describe its grouping with the US, Australia and Japan. India’s reference to ‘Quad’ came in its official statement after a video conference with the four Countries’ Foreign Ministers. Japan’s Foreign Minister Motegi expressed “serious concern with regard to the China’s Coast Guard Law” and said that “the four Ministers concurred to strongly oppose unilateral and forceful attempts to change the status quo in the context of the East and South China Sea”.
Comments. This is the third meeting of ‘Quad’ Foreign Ministers, after Sep 2019 and Oct 2020, since the mechanism at the level of officials was revived in 2017. The ‘Quad’ is increasingly being seen as a possible counterweight to China‘s aggressive 7 moves in the region. The US, too, flagged a “free and open Indo-Pacific region, including support for freedom of navigation and territorial integrity” in a statement similar to India’s, but less elaborate.
While the US and Australia have always termed the grouping as “Quad”, India had so far been reluctant to use the term officially, referring to such interactions instead, as a ‘meeting of the four countries.’ This meeting was also significant because it was the first involving the new US administration under President Joe Biden, and signalled continuity in its approach on dealing with an over-assertive China.
Source:https://indianexpress.com/article/india/china-on-mind-quad-ministers-want-respect-for- territorial-integrity-7194897/; https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/33540/3rd+indiaaustraliajapanusa+ quad+ministerial+meeting
India–Maldives Agreement to Develop and Maintain Coast Guard Harbour. India and Maldives signed an agreement on 21 Feb 2021 to ‘develop, support and maintain a Maldives National Defence Force’s Coast Guard Harbour’. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, signed the agreement with Maldives’ Defence Minister Mariya Didi. The dockyard to be developed at the Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) Naval Base, a few miles northwest of Male, will strengthen the Maldivian defence capabilities. Maldives Defence Minister Mariya Didi said that defence cooperation has been a key element of sisterly relationship between India and the Maldives from time immemorial. She added that the Coast Guard harbour and dockyard will mark another significant milestone in this relationship.
India also extended a $50 million line of credit to the Maldives for defence projects. India will also support development of other infrastructure needed for the harbour, support the development of communications resources and radar services, and provide training.
Comments. Maldives Coastguard needs a designated harbour and dockyard to repair and dock vessels. It attends to over 700 distress calls and conducts approximately 300 missions annually, apart from handling transnational crimes and conducting medical evacuations. The agreement was part of ‘Defence Action Plan’ signed in 2016 by then President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom during a visit to India; and was signed pursuant to the request by Government of Maldives in Apr 2013 for India’s support in enhancing the capability of Maldives Defence Forces in maritime surveillance. The Project will strengthen Maldivian Coast Guard capability and facilitate regional HADR efforts. The project is seen as key part of Indian and Maldivian collaborative strategic interests, particularly in view of increasing Chinese footprint in the Indian Ocean Region.
Source:https://indianexpress.com/article/india/security-allies-delhi-maldives-in-pact-for- harbour-7198677/
India offers $100 million line of credit to Mauritius for Defence Procurement. India offered a $100 million line of credit to Mauritius to facilitate procurement of defence assets on 22 Feb 2021. The two sides further exchanged letters on provision of Dornier aircraft and Dhruv helicopter by India, to step up Mauritius’ maritime monitoring capabilities. The two countries also signed a ‘Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Partnership Agreement’ following talks between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth. 8
Comments. India and Mauritius share very important strategic interests in the Western Indian Ocean region, and India has been engaging with Mauritius on maritime security matters for more than half a century. While Maldives and Seychelles have been the beneficiaries of transfer/stationing of naval aircraft, helicopters and even patrol ships; Mauritius will get such equipment for the first time. Increasing Chinese activities in and around Mauritius – mainly under pretext of civilian maritime research and deep water exploration – which could have adverse security implications for India, are all to noticeable. Space telemetry ships and deep water research ships have sometimes been operating from Port Louis of Mauritius for more than six months. Thus it has become imperative for India to engage even more robustly with Mauritius, so as to ensure that the Indian maritime security interests are protected from that part of the IOR.
Source:https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-offers-100-million-line-of-credit-to- mauritius-to-facilitate-procurement-of-defence-assets/article33903662.ece
MYANMAR AND NORTH KOREA Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari
Protester Rally, Businesses Close in Strike against Myanmar Coup1. Thousands of protesters were gathered in cities and towns across Myanmar as businesses also shut their doors, despite the country’s military warning of further “loss of life” if people answered a call for a general strike opposing its 01 Feb 2021 coup (Aljazeera dated 22 Feb 2021refers). Several rallies took place on 22 Feb 2021, which local media called the biggest to date since the military takeover. This rally came as the United States warned it would “take firm action” against Myanmar’s generals if they continued to crack down on people calling for the restoration of the country’s elected government. In Myanmar’s largest city, Yangon, thousands gathered in the hot sun, chanting “Release all detained leaders” and “Don’t go to the office, break away”. Protesters also turned out en masse in the capital, Naypyidaw, the second-largest city of Mandalay, and various towns across the country, including in Myitkyina, Hpaan, Pyinmana, Dawei and Bhamo. The crowds were gathering after supporters of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), a loosely organised group leading the resistance, called for people to unite for a “Two Five” or a “Spring Revolution”. Protesters inciting the people, especially emotional teenagers and youths, to a confrontation path where they will suffer the loss of life,” the onscreen text said in English as the announcement was spoken in Burmese. The military’s statement also blamed “criminals” for past protest violence, with the result that “the security force members had to fire back”. Also, Facebook took down the pages of MRTV. Three protesters have been shot dead so far, including a 16yearold who was shot in Mandalay and 20yearold Mya Thwate Thwate Khaing, who was shot in the head at protests in the capital on February 9 and died from her injuries 10 days later. The military meanwhile made more arrests, with popular actor Lu Min taken from his home after apparently posting a video condemning the coup. About 640 people have been arrested since the coup began and 594 remain in detention. The military claims it had to seize power because of fraud in last November’s elections, which the NLD won in a landslide. The elections commission has rejected those claims of the Myanmar’s military. The US government condemned the killing of anti-coup protesters in Myanmar and will continue to take firm action against those who perpetrate violence against the people of Burma as they demand the restoration of
1https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/22/myanmar-new 9 their democratically elected government. The US has already imposed sanctions on Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the coup on 01 Feb 2021 and other military officers.
Comments. Myanmar’s military, which is known as the Tatmadaw, seized power from the civilian government in a coup on 01 Feb 2021.This coup happened nearly three months after the general election, where the NLD Party, helmed by Aung San Suu Kyi, returned with a landslide mandate of more than 80 percent seats. The Myanmar’s military justified this coup on its unproven assumption that the election results were fraught with massive irregularities. Myanmar’s military arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and dozens of other civilian leaders. Since the coup happened, fierce protests have gripped almost all corners of Myanmar, with various segments of the population -from young students to industrial workers to Buddhist monks joining civil disobedience movement against the military coup. The scale and depth of these protests surpassed the early uprisings against the Myanmar’s military. On 22 Feb 2021- thousands, defying warnings by the military thronged the streets in various cities and towns in a nationwide general strike. Besides domestic opposition, there was also a surge in calls for the international community to act. The United States, United Kingdom, and Canada have imposed sanctions on the Tatmadaw leadership. Armed forces have been constitutionally given a position in national politics in Myanmar. This included a guaranteed 25 per cent of the 644 seats in the national Parliament, leaving the 476 seats to be contested in the elections. In the latest elections of the 476 seats, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won 396 seats, which was a landslide victory. India has expressed deep concern over the military coup in Myanmar, however, has refrained from outright condemnation of the developments as it needs support of Myanmar against the insurgent groups of the Northeast. Myanmar’s military helped India to carry out raids against these insurgent groups across the border in Myanmar. India is also exporting military hardware to Myanmar. The biggest stake of all is the Sittwe Project in the Rakhine province, where India has built a large deep seaport to facilitate India’s commerce. The location of this port is playing a crucial role in connecting the Northeast Indian region to the sea.
Reference. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/22/myanmar-new
North Korea's Kim Appoints New Navy, Air Force Chiefs in 'Generation Shift' in Army2. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for tougher discipline within the Army and appointed new Chiefs of the Navy and the Air Force as he chaired an enlarged meeting of the central military commission, state media reported on 25 Feb 2021(Thursday). The gathering took place at the ruling party's headquarters on 24 Feb 2021 (Wednesday). The meeting referred to a series of shortcomings revealed in the military and political activities and moral life of Korean People's Army (KPA) Commanding Officers, and mainly discussed the issue of thoroughly establishing the revolutionary moral discipline within the KPA. Kim stated that discipline was vital to the very existence of the KPA, noting the need to boost "education and control" in order to ensure that commanding officers have the proper political consciousness and moral convictions. The central military commission appointed Kim Song Gil as navy commander and promoted him to vice-admiral. Kim Chung Il was appointed as air and anti-air force chief and promoted to lieutenant general. The news agency did not specify their previous
2https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/feb/25/north-koreas-kim-appoints-new-navy- air-force-chiefs-in-generation-shift-in-army-2268913.html 10 positions, just calling them "comrades." According to South Korean news outlets, these people are unknown to media and can be considered "new faces." Several dozen commanding officers have also been promoted to lieutenant general and major general. Media outlets also suggest that the reshuffle of the air force and navy command is related to the strengthening of border security after the 2020 incident, when a South Korean fisheries official who accidentally swam into North Korea's waters was shot dead by the military.
Comments. To build more discipline and a strong defence Force, North Korea appointed new Chiefs of the Navy and the Air Force on 25 Feb 2021. The promotions were given to young commanders, not the "mature" military leadership, in what may be a "generational change" to get rid of corruption in the army and improve morale and discipline of the troops. In past shortcomings were revealed in the military and political activities of Korean People's Army (KPA) by its leader Kim Jong Un. He has called for tougher discipline within the Army thus appointed the new Chiefs of the Navy and the Air Force. .
Reference.https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2021/feb/25/north-koreas-kim-appoints- new-navy-air-force-chiefs-in-generation-shift-in-army-2268913.html
WEST ASIA Col Siddhartha Sharma
News / Developments
(a) Palestinian politician Marwan Barghouti, who is seen as the leader of the First and Second Intifada, is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison. His intention to run for president in the upcoming Palestinian elections has shaken the Palestinian political scene. If he runs and wins, as recent polls have suggested he might, his victory could reshape the Palestinian cause with great implications for the Israeli occupation. Predictably, Barghouti is facing a stiff opposition from the octogenarian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is planning a rerun, and from his clique of loyalists in the Fatah party, who have been running the Palestinian Authority for over two decades.
(b) Israel is said to have vaccinated more than half of its population and is also sponsoring vaccination of Syria alongwith donation from Russia.
(c) Syria released an Israeli woman after Israel returned two shepherds to the Syrian-controlled side of the Golan Heights amid a Russian-mediated prisoner swap. Identity of woman was not revealed.
(d) The Kurdistan Workers’ (PKK) Party in Syria had blamed air raids by Turkey itself for the death of 13 Turkish workers. US statement upheld the statement resulting in a diplomatic row between US and Turkey. Both countries are now attempting to normalizing the issue.
(e) US President Joe Biden’s authorisation of military air raids in eastern Syria on Thursday has drawn criticism in the Middle East. The United States military said it carried out measured attacks on facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran-backed militias, in response to rocket attacks against US targets in Iraq. 11
(f) US intelligence agencies have concluded in a new report that slain Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered by a Saudi hit squad operating under the command of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). President Joe Biden’s administration is considering the cancellation of arms deals with Saudi Arabia that pose human rights concerns.
Comments
(a) The US - Saudi relation post the Khashoggi case is under review of the world in view of the US report. However, considering interests of both nations, any serious repercussion is unlikely.
(b) Authorization of Biden administration regarding air raids in Syria show an unlikely change in US-Syria policy.
(c) Turkey -US relation is under stress post Erdogan gaining much power in 2017. Both nations are old allies however, post Erdogan pushing Islamist agenda and attempting to be a tall leader of the Muslim world, the relations of both countries are currently under duress. How events unfold in future is being watched closely by India.
(d) Contesting Palestinian elections by Marwan Barghouti, who is extremely popular in Palestine and much younger than current president Abbas could be a landmark event in the Palestinian dynamics. He is being viewed to trigger Mandela like revolution if elected.
UNITED STATES Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)
Democrats Want Biden to Relinquish Sole Authority for Nuclear Launches In-Depth Coverage. The president of the United States is always accompanied by a military aide carrying a satchel containing nuclear launch codes, has sole authority to order nuclear warfare or respond in kind to such an enemy attack. Now, lawmakers of the current president's own party are asking President Joe Biden to surrender that unilateral power.
Giving one person such authority "entails real risks," according to a letter endorsed by 31 Democratic members of the House." Past presidents have threatened to attack other countries with nuclear weapons or exhibited behavior that causes other officials to express concerns about the president's judgment."3
Comments. In almost all nuclear states (except China)4 the authority to launch a nuclear attack vests with the Head of the state. The issue raised by the democrats in US congress deserves a through debate across the world so that the safety of the humankind does not perish by the action of a single individual who in his whimsical moment may order launch of a nuclear attack. While it is true the ultimate responsibility lies on one individual, in most states the decision is generally taken in consultation with the other responsible persons in the government. Of courses this does not apply to rogue states such as North Korea. Even utterances by the former US President Trump have been criticised for being outlandish and threatening
3GlobalSecurity.org
The deliberations should also review the necessity of ready to launch state of nuclear weapons by some nuclear weapons states since, if decision of nuclear launch is after consultation then, it necessarily would entail longer time frame to decide than the existing. This will reduce the risk of accidental launch and give enough time to decide the correct course of action which could even be other than nuclear retaliation. Moreover, the split-second response and authorizing the head of the state alone to respond was possibly the requirement of the cold war between United States and former Soviet Union but, it has little relevance now especially as China, the third entrant in the power struggle maintains the nuclear weapons in the recessed state of readiness.
MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI LANKA Brig Rajat Upreti
Maldives
India on Sunday reiterated its commitment to the Maldives’ security and signed a USD 50 million defence Line of Credit agreement with it to boost the maritime capabilities of the strategic island nation. The USD 50 million credit line agreements for defence projects was signed between the Finance Ministry of Maldives and the Export Import Bank of India. The signing of the agreement took place after External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held talks with Maldivian Defence Minister Mariya Didi, Minister of Finance Ibrahim Ameer, Minister of Economic Development Fayyaz Ismail and Minister of National Planning, Housing and Infrastructure Mohamed Aslam. “Glad to sign with Defence Minister @MariyaDidi the UTF Harbour Project agreement. Will strengthen Maldivian Coast Guard capability and facilitate regional HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief) efforts. Partners in development, partners in security,” he said. Didi said it was a great pleasure to welcome Jaishankar. “From time immemorial Defence Cooperation has been a key element of the sisterly relationship that exists between India and the Maldives. The Coast Guard Harbour & Dockyard at SIFAVARU will mark another significant milestone,” she tweeted.
Comments. Jaishankar also witnessed the signing of a project execution contract for the construction of roads in Addu, the second-largest urban area in the Maldives in terms of population. This further underscores the importance of connectivity in India-Maldives partnership. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-signs-usd-50-million-defence-loc-agreement-to
Pakistan
Global money laundering watchdog the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) on Thursday said it would keep Pakistan on its terrorism financing “grey list”. In an online press briefing from Paris, FATF President Marcus Pleyer said Islamabad had made “significant progress” but there remained “serious deficiencies” in mechanisms to plug money laundering and terrorism financing. Pleyer said three out of 27 action 13 points still needed work. Following the announcement, Pakistan said it was committed to complying with the FATF evaluation process. “It was also noted by FATF member countries that Pakistan is subject to perhaps the most challenging and comprehensive action plan ever given to any country,” Pakistani federal minister Hammad Azhar wrote on Twitter. Azhar, who leads Pakistan’s effort to implement the FATF roadmap, said the country was “subject to dual evaluation processes of FATF with differing time lines”. Last year, Azhar said that FATF acknowledged that any blacklisting, meaning further downgrading of the country’s status is off the table now. However, replying to a question, Pleyer said on Thursday that the risk of Pakistan being put on the blacklist had not gone, and that the country must continue to work on outstanding action points to fix its financial monitoring mechanisms.
Comments. FATF had placed Pakistan on its “grey list” of countries with inadequate controls over terrorism financing in 2018, which made foreign firms more cautious about investing in Pakistan. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-fatf/global-money-laundering-watchdog-keeps-
The militaries of India and Pakistan said in a rare joint statement on Thursday that they had agreed to observe a ceasefire along the disputed border in Kashmir, having exchanged fire hundreds of times in recent months. The nuclear-armed neighbours signed a ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) in the Kashmir region in 2003, but the truce has frayed in recent years, and there have been mounting casualties among villagers living close to the de facto border. “Both sides agreed for strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control and all other sectors with effect from midnight 24/25 Feb 2021,” the joint statement said. The return to a truce was settled by the two armies director-generals of military operations. India’s military would maintain deployments along the LoC to prevent infiltration and continue counterinsurgency operations in the Kashmir valley, the official said.
Comments. Kashmir has long been a flashpoint between the neighbours, which claim the region in full but rule only parts. There has been a significant increase in ceasefire violations since 2014, leading to nearly 300 civilian fatalities https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-pakistan/india-pakistan-militaries-agree-to-stop-
The Pakistan navy’s seventh biennial multinational “Aman” (peace) exercises in Pakistani waters aimed at fostering international cooperation to fight piracy, terrorism and other crimes threatening maritime security concluded on Tuesday. “The purpose of this exercise to bring regional and extra-regional navies on one platform and conduct exercises to enhance intra-operability in addition to counter terrorist threat and the crime which are happening in maritime domain,” Commodore Khan Mehmood Asif told media. In the sea phase of the six-day exercise, navies conducted exercises together against terrorist and piracy threat in the maritime domain, he added.
Comments. Around 45 navies, including those of the United States, Britain and China, took part in the Arabian Sea exercise with ships and observers. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-navy-drill/pakistans-multinational-naval-
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Sri Lanka
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s two-day visit to Sri Lanka, starting Tuesday, has attracted a fair amount of controversy because of a cancelled invitation to address the Sri Lankan parliament. But ties between the two countries are on much more solid footing than immediately apparent, and this is unlikely to become a sticking point in a long and steady relationship. The Colombo trip is only Imran Khan’s second foray in the neighbourhood since becoming Prime Minister. His first was to Afghanistan last November, two years after his election. The last time a Pakistani prime minister visited Colombo was Nawaz Sharif in 2016. It is also the first visit by a head of government to Sri Lanka since the pandemic began. For Colombo, the visit holds much value. It comes at a fraught time for the government on the international stage. Imminently, it is bracing to be hauled over the coals at the United Nations Human Rights Commission for withdrawing from resolution 30/1 of September 2015, under which it committed to carry out war crime investigations. The Pakistan Prime Minister is in Colombo along with Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, and trade and commerce officials. Sporadically, the Indian security establishment has voiced concerns about Pakistan’s role in the radicalisation of Muslims, especially in Eastern Sri Lanka, where funds have poured in for new mosques from some West Asian countries, and the effect that this could have in India.
Comments. Pakistan is Sri Lanka’s second largest trading partner in south Asia after India. Newspaper Dawn reported that the two countries decided to reactivate a Joint Working Group (JWG) to resolve pending technical issues on trade, during commerce secretaries-level talks on February 18. Sri Lanka and Pakistan have a free trade agreement dating back to 2005. Pakistan’s top exports to Sri Lanka are textiles and cement. It is defence ties that are a strong pillar of the Sri Lanka- Pakistan bilateral relationship. Sporadically, the Indian security establishment has voiced concerns about Pakistan’s role in the radicalisation of Muslims, especially in Eastern Sri Lanka, where funds have poured in for new mosques from some West Asian countries, and the effect that this could have in India. There is now a new wariness about a triangulation in the ties between Sri Lanka, China and Pakistan in defence co-operation, though it has not been publicly expressed. In 2016, India put pressure on Sri Lanka to drop a plan to buy the Chinese JF-17 Thunder aircraft made in Pakistan and co-produced by the Chinese Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/imran-in-sri-lanka-multiple-facets-of-a-
Seeking India’s “proactive” support at the UN Human Rights Council, where a resolution on Sri Lanka will be soon put to vote, the Secretary to Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “India cannot abandon us”. “If the world is one family, as your Foreign Minister has said, then we are immediate family, isn’t it,” Admiral Jayanath Colombage (retired) said, citing External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s reference to ‘vasudhaiva kutumbakam’ in his recent address to the Council. “Our President’s [Gotabaya Rajapaksa] first letter requesting support was to the Indian Prime Minister, and his first meeting here was with the Indian High Commissioner. Because we are very conscious of South Asian solidarity,” he said, adding: “Sri Lanka is in dire need of support from our friendly neighbours. And we are not asking anything extraordinary, we are asking something based on your neighbourhood first policy, based on Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).” His appeal comes at a time when Indo-Lanka bilateral ties have come under strain, following a series of decisions taken by Colombo on development projects involving India and China. 15
Comments. It remains to be seen how India might vote on the Sri Lanka resolution that draws from UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet’s damning report on Sri Lanka’s “alarming path towards recurrence of grave human rights violations”, which Colombo has categorically rejected. With the Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe government co-sponsoring the 2015 resolution, a vote was not required. Irrespective of India’s vote in Geneva, going forward, the two countries will have to navigate a broader terrain mired in controversies, especially after Colombo cleared a Chinese energy project in the northern islands; pulled out of a 2019 deal with India and Japan to joint develop a Colombo Port Terminal, and sought the Trincomalee oil tank farms leased out to an Indian Oil Corporation subsidiary. http://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking_news/India-cannot-abandon-us-Sri-Lanka/108-206700
IRAN Col Siddhartha Sharma
News / Developments
(a) US President Joe Biden says he wants to restart negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme. The statement came after Iran and IAEA agreed to nuclear inspection deal with less access. Meanwhile the hard-line lawmakers of Iran condemned the moderate government for the agreement.
(b) Sanctions imposed by the United States inflicted $1 trillion worth of damage on Iran’s economy as per Iran’s foreign minister. Meanwhile South Korea has agreed to release “a part” of billions of dollars of Iranian money it had blocked in its banks for years because of United States sanctions.
Comments.
(a) The agreement of IAEA and Iran is a welcome step towards re-instating the JCPOA deal.
(b) The outcome of deal would impact Indian investments in Iran which were suspended in view of the US Sanctions.
AFGHANISTAN Col Siddhartha Sharma
News/Development.
(a) As May approaches, US decision to withdraw completely or stay put is being awaited by the world. Meanwhile, New Zealand has announced that it will withdraw its last remaining troops from Afghanistan by May, concluding a 20-year deployment.
(b) Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government have resumed in the Qatari capital Doha after weeks of delays, escalating violence and a change in US diplomatic leadership as the Biden administration began.
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Comments
(a) It is estimated that US would take a middle path by withdrawing most soldiers but leaving a small force in Afghanistan. No final decision has been taken on the same.
(b) Resumption of talks is a positive step. Sincerity of effort by the involved parties is yet to be seen.
EURASIA Air Cmde T Chand (Retd)
Has America Lost Eurasia to China. Traditionally, Soviet Union and after that Russia enjoyed a predominant influence over the Eurasian region. As the post Soviet era began to unfold, Russia began to leave more and more space in the economic field to China. With the Belt and Road initiative of China spreading fast in the region the Russian influence started decreasing. USA tried for a foothold and gained some ground but China seems to be outsmarting both Russia and USA in this important geo strategic area. Gordon G. Chang, the author of “The Coming Collapse of China”, analysed this subject in detail recently5 opining that not only in Eurasia but even with Russia and Europe, China has established itself as a dominant economic power and Vladimir Putin suggested in late October 2021 that ties between Russia and China were extremely close, indicating a possibility of a formal Russia-China military alliance in future. He highlighted the already existing strategic partnership between China and Russia which is inspired by a sense of commonality of interests and adversarial stance towards United States6.
Several thinkers in the past had put forth theories regarding domination of certain geographic areas for achieving control over the world. Halford John Mackinder believed that the rise of a unified Eurasian heartland would eventually threaten the dominance of the Western maritime powers and Leonard Hochberg, coordinator of the Mackinder Forum-U.S., stated recently that the Mackinder’s prediction seems to be coming true of late as China seems determined to control the Heartland. Chang also observed that China and Russia together seem to be dominating the Rimland, theorized by Spykman.
China is also determined to replace Russia as a major trading partner in the Rimland. Its BRI is realigning transportation routes in Central Asia, building out east- west routes that increase Chinese influence and decrease Russia's, which depends on north-south aligned routes.
Another important observation made by Mr Chang is regarding increasing Chinese hostilities towards India especially during the recent East Ladakh standoff adding that China has just made an important foe, which enjoys great influence in the Rimland. Cleo Paskal of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told Newsweek "We may look back at the Galwan incident as a moment that shifted the world7.
5 Gordon G. Chang, “Has America Lost Eurasia To China?” Newsweek, 26 February 2021, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/has-america-lost-eurasia-to-china-opinion/ar- BB1e2yhR. 27 February 2021 6 ibid 7 ibid 17
China’s thinkers also seem to believe the theory of Alfred Thayer Mahan, who thought those who controlled the seas could control the world, as China in 2013 also announced another project, the new Maritime Silk route connecting China and the important parts of the rest of the world. It seems, China is not content with the enhanced influence in the heartland alone but also in the Rimland and around the sea lanes.
(https://images.search.yahoo.com/search/images?p=international+north+south+transportation +corridor&fr=mcafee&type=E211US714G0&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki %2FSpecial%3AFilePath%2FNorth_South_Transport_Corridor_%28NSTC%29.jpg#id=10&iurl= https%3A%2F%2Fwww.clearias.com%2Fup%2FINSTC-and-connected-outes.jpg&action=click)
Mr Chang recommended that for US to regain its influence it will have to have close relationship with India, going beyond military pacts and developing stronger trade and investment ties, as well. US will have to strive for better relation with Russia and wean it away from China, for ensuring that China does not dominate the Heartland and Rimland. India on its part will have to reemphasize the importance of the areas of cooperation with the Eurasian region under its several bilateral and multilateral initiatives. India’s steadfastness for supporting the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200-km-long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe will enable it to look after its interest in the Eurasian region.
SPACE Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)
Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV). ISRO is likely to launch the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) in March end-April. The launch date has not been finalised yet. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is all set to add another feather in its cap, as it gets ready to launch a new-generation compact rocket on its maiden orbital test flight. So far, ISRO has developed five generation of launch vehicles -- SLV-3, ASLV, PSLV, GSLV and GSLV-MkIII.ISRO started working on 18 developing a new launch vehicle of mini rockets - Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) - to meet needs of the emerging global small satellite launch service market. In a report, news agency PTI said several sources in ISRO have said that SSLV-D1 is targeted to be launched towards the end of March or early April. However, there is no official confirmation on the date so far.8
Comments. Small satellites are currently are being launched by ISRO in a piggyback mode along with a larger satellite. In fact, till some time ago, ISRO held the record of launching 104 satellites in one launch which has been overturned by Space X a private entity, with launch of 143 satellites together in the end of Jan 21. Launching an individual small satellite with large launchers while is possible but, at prohibitive cost. The development of Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) will make individual launch of small satellites affordable thus, meet the growing "launch on demand" from the foreign and domestic civil sector as well as from the military in a cost-effective manner. As per news report, the future SSLV is would be a three- stage all solid vehicles and would have a capability to launch up to 500 kg satellite mass into 500 km low earth orbit (LEO) and 300 kg to Sun Synchronous Orbit (SSO). Since the launch vehicle would be able to launch pay load up to 500 Kg means that it would also be possible to launch multiple satellites of small sizes i.e., Nano, micro and small satellites together with in the permissible weight if needed. As per ISRO, assembly of PSLV takes up to 60 days but, it would be possible to assemble the SSLV in 72 hours which indeed is heartening since, it would be possible to seek satellite launch for the civil /military needs at short notice. It would still be better if both assembly and launch of small satellite is taken up by the upcoming start-ups in the private sector. This will free ISRO for launching large satellites and for the space exploration. Diversification will also conform to the recently announced reforms in the space sector. Already, the Department of Space (DoS) has entered into a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) with Skyroot Aerospace Pvt. Ltd., a private company based in Hyderabad for building of small satellite launch vehicles. This indeed is a step forward in the Space reforms.
Mangalyan-2 Mission. As NASA's Perseverance rover landed on Mars in the early hours of Friday to look for signs of past life, ISRO chief K Sivan said India's next mission to the Red Planet is likely to be an orbiter. He, however, did not provide an exact time frame for the mission -- Mangalyaan-2. The second mission to Mars will be undertaken only after the launch of Chandrayaan-3, he said.
The third mission to the Moon or Chandrayaan-3, under which ISRO aims to land a rover on the satellite, has been delayed due to the coronavirus-induced pandemic and is now likely to lift off in 2022.
Comments. We still have to make safe landing on the moon; hence, it is prudent to attempt landing on Mars only after we have successfully carried out landing on the moon. In comparison, the Chinese space programme has moved ahead with the Moon and Mars landing. Seen in perspective, both India and China started space journey nearly same time period (late sixties). Since then, in the intervening years, China has made tremendous progress matching US and Russia. The inherent power competition and in particular the space race between US and China is the main reason for quick advancement in the space arena. Though India is not really lagging badly but, we still have to demonstrate our prowess in several areas i.e., landing
8https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/isro-gearing-up-to-launch-sslv-its-new-generation-mini-rocket- launch-system-in-maiden-flight-1773080-2021-02-25 19 rover on moon and Mars, launch of a space station and safe conduct of human flights. All these are on anvil. The US sanctions on ISRO after 1974 tests have somewhat affected ISRO especially in the cryogenic launch technology, which have been indigenously developed deserves credit, as this also led to innovation and self- reliance in space unlike China which besides indigenous efforts, allegedly sources technology by stealing it wherever possible.