INDEX (e-Scan16-28 Feb 2021) S No Rank & Name Country Page(s) 1. Brig RK Bhutani (Retd) CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo- 2-5 Politics & Geo-Economics) 2. Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri IOR, ANC AND INDO- 5-8 PACIFIC 3. Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari MYANMAR AND NORTH 8-10 KOREA 4. Col Siddhartha Sharma WEST ASIA 10-11 5. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) UNITED STATES 11-12 6. Brig Rajat Upreti MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI 12-15 LANKA 7. Col Siddhartha Sharma IRAN 15 8. Col Siddhartha Sharma AFGHANISTAN 15-16 9. Air Cmde T Chand (Retd) EURASIA 16-17 10. Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd) SPACE 17-19 2 ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 16-28 FEB 2021 CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd) Beijing Tightens Grip on South China Sea with 800,000-square-Mile City. The U.S. Naval War College brought out a new report about one of the world’s oddest cities. Sansha City was founded by China in 2012 and is the world’s largest city by area, covering 800,000 square miles of the South China Sea within the “nine-dash line” that China claims for itself. That makes it 1,700 times the size of New York City. Most of Sansha City is salt water, although it includes the Paracel Islands, which Vietnam and Taiwan claim, and the Spratly Islands, several of which are claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. City Hall is on Woody Island, one of the Paracels. “Once a remote outpost, Woody Island has become a bustling hub of activity,” says the 57-page, heavily footnoted report, which was written by China expert Zachary Haver. “The island now boasts expanded port infrastructure, seawater desalination and sewage treatment facilities, new public housing, a functioning judicial system, 5G network coverage, a school, and regular charter flights to and from the mainland.” Beyond Woody Island, Sansha City is “developing tourism in the Paracel Islands, attracting hundreds of newly registered companies, cultivating aquaculture, and encouraging long-term residency,” the report says. The obvious question is why China is going to such lengths to build a civilian infrastructure in a watery region that is effectively under control of the People’s Liberation Army Navy and China’s semi-militarized coast guard. The report provides the answer -China’s system of “military-civil fusion” is “a mechanism to govern contested areas as if they were Chinese territory,” like any mainland city. Sansha City is effectively an extension of the Chinese Communist Party. “The expansion of the city’s party-state institutions allows municipal authorities to directly govern contested areas of the South China Sea and ensures the primacy of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interests in local decision-making,” the report says. Sansha City is what China calls a prefecture-level city, which on the mainland is an administrative unit that includes a central city as well as surrounding cities, towns, villages, and rural areas. In other words, it is geographically large—but not this large. Comments. Though Sansha City is just nine years old but China has created enough infrastructures for settling in for a long stay. In entrusting these responsibilities to the municipal party-state and supporting the city’s development, Beijing has revealed that its ambitions extend beyond dominating the South China Sea via CCG [Chinese Coast Guard] and PLA Navy operations. By establishing normalized administration in these islands, China is converting South China Sea into de facto Chinese territory. 3 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/china-has-an-800-000-square-mile-city- in-the-south-china-sea Biden’s Early Policy ‘Smacks of Trumpism’, Affords Little Optimism, China State Media Says. Chinese state media said President Joe Biden’s early policy toward Beijing “smacks of Trumpism,” signaling new concern over the prospects for a reset in ties with the U.S. The official China Daily said in an editorial 25 February that the Biden administration’s approach so far “affords little optimism.” Many of the new U.S. leader’s policies seem similar to those of former President Donald Trump, according to the English-language newspaper, whose opinion pages are often used to send messages to foreign audiences. The piece cited Biden’s comments last week at the Munich Security Conference, where he said: “We have to push back against the Chinese government’s economic abuses and coercion that undercut the foundations of the international economic system.” Also singled out were remarks by Biden’s nominee, William Burns, to lead the Central Intelligence Agency. He said at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee that China’s “adversarial, predatory leadership” is the biggest threat to the U.S. “Such incendiary remarks harp on the same tune as that heard from the previous administration, and are centered on a zero-sum mentality which sees China’s gain as the U.S.’ loss,” the China Daily said. “Such messages from Washington are unhelpful for the rebuilding of a sound and healthy bilateral relationship”. The Trump administration’s four years were marked by tough rhetoric and tensions with China on issues from trade and tech to human rights and political freedoms in Hong Kong. https://theprint.in/world/bidens-early-policy-smacks-of-trumpism-affords-little-optimism-china- state-media-says/612101/ China's Debt-trap Diplomacy? Beijing Delays Kenya's $245 Million Debt in 'Repayment Holiday'. The Chinese government has postponed Kenya's debt repayments worth $245 million due over the next six months in a 'debt repayment holiday' in what is seen as another example of Beijing's debt-trap diplomacy. Kenya was scheduled to pay 27 billion shillings ($245 million) to China from January through June. The announcement of delayed payment came a week after the Paris Club of creditors agreed to delay $300 million in payments by the government of East Africa’s biggest economy. The East African nation has been struggling with repayments to Beijing's Export– Import Bank of China to fund the building of a standard gauge railway, under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as some of its projects are not generating enough income to pay for themselves, according to a South China Morning Post report. The facility was to be repaid in 30 installments from January 21 to July 21, 2035, at a price of Libor plus 3 per cent, the Bloomberg said. 4 According to reports, Chinese loans comprised 21 per cent of Kenya’s external debt at the end of June 2020, compared with the World Bank’s 25 per cent. Sovereign bondholders held another 19 per cent, commercial banks 11 per cent and the African Development Bank 7.5 per cent. Kenya was due to pay China about $499 million by the end of 2020, as per World Bank Debtor Reporting System. This month, Chinese foreign ministry said that Beijing had signed payment suspension agreements with 12 African countries and provided waivers on mature interest-free loan, SCMP reported. Comments. A recent report by Center for Global Development, a non-profit research organization, found that eight BRI recipient countries—Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, the Maldives, Mongolia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tajikistan—are at a high risk of debt distress due to BRI loans. Now twelve countries from Africa itself have been identified by China for loan payment suspension. China will find it difficult to sustain the BRI projects as envisaged in the original plan. https://www.news18.com/news/world/chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-beijing-delays-245-million-in- debt-repayment-holiday-3441506.html China Calls for a Reset, but U.S. says Beijing Trying to 'Avert Blame'. Chinese state councilor and foreign minister, Wang Yi said on Monday the United States and China could work together on various issues if they repaired their damaged bilateral relations, but Washington accused Beijing of trying to avert blame for its actions. Wang said Beijing stood ready to reopen constructive dialogue after ties sank to their lowest in decades under former president Donald Trump. But he urged Washington to respect China’s core interests, stop “smearing” the ruling Communist Party, stop interfering in Beijing’s internal affairs, and stop “conniving” with separatist forces for Taiwan’s independence. He called on the United States to remove tariffs on Chinese goods and abandon what he said was an irrational suppression of the Chinese tech sector. In response, State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters: “His comments reflect a continued pattern of Beijing’s tendency to avert blame for its predatory economic practices, its lack of transparency, its failure to honor its international agreements, and its repression of universal human rights.” Before Wang spoke at a forum sponsored by the foreign ministry, officials played footage of the “Ping-Pong diplomacy” of 1972 when an exchange of table tennis players cleared the way for then-U.S. President Richard Nixon to visit China. “Over the past few years, the United States basically cut off bilateral dialogue at all levels,” Wang said in prepared remarks translated into English. “We stand ready to have candid communication with the U.S. side, and engage in dialogues aimed at solving problems.” Wang pointed to a recent call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden as a positive step. 5 Washington and Beijing have clashed on multiple fronts including trade, accusations of human rights crimes against the Uighur Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region, and Beijing’s territorial claims in the resources-rich South China Sea. Comments. There are enough indications that the Biden administration will maintain pressure on Beijing.