Shining a Light on the Western Balkans Internal Vulnerabilities and Malign Influence from Russia, Terrorism, and Transnational Organized Crime Vera Zakem, Bill Rosenau, and Danielle Johnson May 2017 Select a caveat DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. CNA’s Occasional Paper series is published by CNA, but the opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of CNA or the Department of the Navy. Distribution DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. SPECIFIC AUTHORITY: N00014-16-D-5003 5/9/2017 Other requests for this document shall be referred to CNA Document Center at
[email protected]. Photography Credit: https://florianbieber.org/2016/07/04/the-western-balkans-after-the- brexit-vote-russias-gain-europes-loss/ Approved by: May 2017 Dr. Jonathan Schroden, Director Center for Stability and Development Center for Strategic Studies This work was performed under Federal Government Contract No. N00014-16-D-5003. Copyright © 2017 CNA Abstract Since the civil wars of the 1990s, the Western Balkans region has been plagued by conflict and instability. The United States and Western Europe disengaged from this region in the last decade, and the Western Balkan countries have become particularly unstable due to internal vulnerabilities and external influence from state and non- state actors. CNA initiated a study to assess these internal vulnerabilities and external influence and threats from Russia, international terrorism, and transnational organized crime. Using research and semi-structured discussions with subject matter experts in the United States, Serbia, and Macedonia, including recent U.S. senior military and civilian leaders, this paper presents findings and implications for U.S.