Exploring the Requirement for Place-Specific Geodemographic Classifications

Exploring the requirement for Place-Specific Geodemographic Classifications

Amanda Otley*, Dr Michelle Morris, Dr Andy Newing, Professor Mark Birkin mm08ao@leeds.ac.uk October 2018 University of Leeds What are Geodemographic Classifications?

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 2/19 What are Geodemographic Classifications?

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 3/19 Foundation of Geodemographic Classifications

Tobler’s First Law of Geography:

“Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things.”

Tobler W., (1970) "A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region". Economic Geography, 46(Supplement): 234-240.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 4/19 Typical applications

. Commercial

E.g. Marketing, retail location planning, etc.

. Public Sector

E.g. Policy development, resource allocation, etc.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 5/19 Scale

Classifications are typically generated at a national extent

Methodological Concerns Theoretical Concerns

Masking local Goodchild’s 2nd Law heterogeneity of Geography .. particularly in areas which deviate from ‘No such thing as a ‘national average’ national average’

Goodchild, M.F., 2004. The validity and usefulness of laws in geographic information science and geography. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 94(2), pp.300-303.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 6/19 2011 Output Area Classification Open classification with 60 input variables from the decennial census

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 7/19 2011 Output Area Classification

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 8/19 London Output Area Classification (LOAC)

“A key motivation for creating our classification of the Greater London area independent of the rest of the UK arises out of the belief that there is something distinctively different about the geography of the UK’s capital city.”

Singleton, A.D. and Longley, P. 2015. The internal structure of Greater London: a comparison of national and regional geodemographic models. Geo: Geography and Environment. 2(1), pp.69-87.

http://www.opengeodemographics.com/#LOAC-section

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 9/19 Preliminary analysis: Leeds Specific Classification

2011 Output Area Leeds Specific Classification Output Area Re- classification

Key finding: There is a need for a place-specific classification in Leeds – but this is not the best solution.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 10/19 Proposition…

… place-specific variable selection

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 11/19 Geodemographic precursors: Urban Ecology

Q. What does the social structure of the Leeds population look like?

Concentric rings? Sectional? Neither? (Burgess, 1925) (Hoyt, 1939)

Q. Which attributes underpin the structure of the Leeds population?

Occupation? Ethnicity? Age? A combination?

Q. How does this compare with other urban areas?

Park, R.E. et al. 1925. The City. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Hoyt, H. 1939. The structure and growth of residential neighbourhoods in American cities.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 12/19 Geodemographic precursors: Factorial Ecology

Latent Variable Methods:

A statistical technique to identify a few common underlying factors/components from a large number of variables

Q. Can an understanding the unique structures of cities inform geodemographic classification variable selection?

Q. Are variables universally representative of the same population characteristics in different locations?

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 13/19 Factor Analysis

Leeds Factor Breakdown Bradford Factor Breakdown

Demographic Demographic variables Ethnicity/ variables Ethnicity/ Country of Country of birth variables birth variables Housing Housing variables variables

Socio-Economic Socio-Economic variables variables

Employment Employment

variables variables

7 8 9 10

Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 Factor 5 Factor 6 Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor 11 Factor 12 Factor 13 Factor 14 Factor

Full-time students Full-time students Highest qualifications level 3 Highest qualifications level 3 School children/Full-time students School children/Full-time students

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 14/19 Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA UniversityAmanda Otley, Leeds, of “Stability and wealth” Principal ComponentAnalysis Leeds: Country Country birth of Indicators of “stability and wealth” Email: Email: [email protected] Bradford : Twitter: @amandaotley Twitter: 15/19 Principal Component Analysis

Leeds: Bradford : “Stability and “Stability wealth”

Indicators of “stability and wealth” Ethnicity variables Employment/unemployment variables

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 16/19 Principal Component Analysis

Leeds: Bradford : “Stability and “Stability wealth”

Student variables “IT professionals”

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 17/19 Not all cities are driven by the same variables.

The same variables are not necessarily universal proxies for the same social phenomena in different cities.

Need for place-specific variables supporting place-specific geodemographic classifications.

Next Steps: Work with local government to identify and gather place specific data with which to develop a more informed place-specific classification.

Amanda Otley, University of Leeds, LIDA Email: [email protected] Twitter: @amandaotley 18/19 Exploring the requirement for Place-Specific Geodemographic Classifications

Amanda Otley*, Dr Michelle Morris, Dr Andy Newing, Professor Mark Birkin October 2018 [email protected] University of Leeds