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MV Baseline Summary Report UK Data Archive Study Number 8361 – Millennium Village Impact Evaluation in Northern Ghana, 2012-2016 MILLENNIUM VILLAGES IMPACT EVALUATION, BASELINE SUMMARY REPORT Date: February 2014 By Masset, Jupp, Korboe, Dogbe, and Barnett Page | 1 MILLENNIUM VILLAGES IMPACT EVALUATION, BASELINE SUMMARY REPORT, FEBRUARY 2014 Acknowledgements This report has been prepared by the team for the impact evaluation of the Millennium Villages Project. The team is composed of staff from Itad, the Institute of Development Studies, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and PDA-Ghana. The team is fully independent of the Earth Institute and the Millennium Promise. The principal authors of this report are Dr Edoardo Masset, Dr Dee Jupp, Dr David Korboe, Tony Dogbe, and Dr Chris Barnett. The team is nonetheless very grateful to all the researchers that have assisted with data collection, the staff at DFID, and everyone else that has provided support, information, and comments – including the work of the Earth Institute during the enumeration phase. The findings of this report are the full responsibility of the authors, and any views contained in this report do not necessarily represent those of DFID or of the people consulted. The first drafts of this report were edited and proofread by Pippa Lord, Jane Stanton, Alice Parsons, and Kelsy Nelson. The final copy was proofread by Caitlin McCann. Citation Masset, E., Jupp, D., Korboe, D., Dogbe, T., & Barnett, C. 2014. Millennium Villages Impact Evaluation, Baseline Summary Report. Itad, Hove. Page | 2 MILLENNIUM VILLAGES IMPACT EVALUATION, BASELINE SUMMARY REPORT, FEBRUARY 2014 Acronyms ANCOVA Analysis of Covariance CHPS Community-based Health Planning and Services CSPro Census and Survey Processing System CV Control Village DD Difference-in-differences DFID Department for International Development DHS Demographic and Health Survey EI Earth Institute FGD Focus Group Discussion GLSS5 Ghana Living Standards Survey 5+ GSS Ghana Statistical Service IDD Initial Design Document ISSER Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research JHS Junior High School MDGs Millennium Development Goals MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey MMDA Mamprugu-Moaduri District MWDA West Mamprusi District MV Millennium Village MVP Millennium Villages Project OLS Ordinary Least Squares PPP Purchasing Power Parity PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal PRG Peer Review Group PVA Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment QA Quality Assurance RCA Reality Check Approach SADA Savannah Accelerated Development Authority SHS Senior High School TBA Traditional Birth Attendant UN United Nations Page | 3 MILLENNIUM VILLAGES IMPACT EVALUATION, BASELINE SUMMARY REPORT, FEBRUARY 2014 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................7 2. Overview of the MVP area ..........................................................................................................................9 2.1 Institutional assessment .................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Communities in the area where MVP operates ................................................................................. 11 3. Survey instruments and qualitative research .......................................................................................... 15 4. Characteristics of the study population ................................................................................................... 23 4.1 MDG status in MV sites and comparison to the rest of Ghana ......................................................... 23 4.2 Local perceptions of poverty .............................................................................................................. 26 4.3 Household characteristics .................................................................................................................. 31 4.4 Income Poverty .................................................................................................................................. 33 4.5 Agriculture .......................................................................................................................................... 35 4.6 Education ........................................................................................................................................... 37 4.7 Health ................................................................................................................................................. 40 4.8 Gender ................................................................................................................................................ 43 4.9 Social networks .................................................................................................................................. 44 4.10 Expectations and time preferences ................................................................................................. 44 5. Characteristics of the data ....................................................................................................................... 47 5.1 Balancing tests ................................................................................................................................... 47 5.2 Balancing by matching ....................................................................................................................... 50 5.3 Difference-in-differences and trend analysis ..................................................................................... 54 5.4 Seasonality ......................................................................................................................................... 58 5.5 Data quality and Benford’s Law ......................................................................................................... 62 5.6 Post-hoc power calculations .............................................................................................................. 64 6. Summary and conclusions........................................................................................................................ 68 6.1 Characteristics of the study population ............................................................................................. 68 6.2 Characteristics of the data – balance tests ........................................................................................ 69 6.3 Characteristics of the data – seasonality ........................................................................................... 69 6.4 Characteristics of the data – quality .................................................................................................. 70 7. References ................................................................................................................................................ 71 APPENDIX A. TERMS OF REFERENCE ............................................................................................................ 72 APPENDIX B. BALANCING TESTS .................................................................................................................. 82 APPENDIX C. QUANTITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS………………………………………………………………………………..…..…..90 APPENDIX D. WELL-BEING AND FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS ASSESSMENT….……………………………………..139 Page | 4 MILLENNIUM VILLAGES IMPACT EVALUATION, BASELINE SUMMARY REPORT, FEBRUARY 2014 APPENDIX E. REALITY CHECKS APPROACH….………………………………………………………………………………………….184 APPENDIX F. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILSA DISTRICTS.……………………………………………………….217 APPENDIX G. INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE WEST MAMPRUSI DISTRICTS……………………………………….239 APPENDIX H. SEASONALITY……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..257 APPENDIX I. MILLENNIUM ENGEL CURVES……………………………………………………………………………………....……279 APPENDIX J. METHODOLOGY EMPLOYED IN THE CALCULATION OF AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE…………..290 Tables Table 1. Actual enumeration start and end dates ....................................................................................... 16 Table 2. Quantitative survey instruments and number of observations ..................................................... 16 Table 3. Re-enumeration/Verification Checks conducted by the MVP ....................................................... 17 Table 4. Types of data entry checks ............................................................................................................. 18 Table 5. Summary of independent quality checks ....................................................................................... 19 Table 6. MDGs in MV and CV localities and in the rest of Ghana ................................................................ 24 Table 7. Local categorisation of well-being cohorts .................................................................................... 27 Table 8. Characteristics of each well-being category ................................................................................... 28 Table 9. Household structure ....................................................................................................................... 32 Table 10. Poverty indicators ........................................................................................................................ 33 Table 11. Per capita expenditure and food shares ...................................................................................... 34 Table
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