Planning for Delay: Influence of Flight Scheduling on Airline Punctuality
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Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality EUROCONTROL Trends in Air Traffic Volume 7 EUROCONTROL Acknowledgements The idea for this study came from the Performance Review Commission reporting on the performance of European Air Navigation Services (ANS) in 2008 in the Performance Review Report (PRR20081). The PRR2008 reports on Key Performance Areas of Safety, Punctuality and Predictability, Capacity/delays, Flight-Efficiency, Cost- Effectiveness and Environmental impact. Within the area of punctuality and predictability, a comparison between the USA and Europe showed similar arrival punctuality rates albeit with higher variability in the US. In section 7.4.4 of PRR2008 we read that “The gap between departure and arrival punctuality is significant in the US and quasi nil in Europe”. This document has been developed to help explain why this gap is so small in Europe and how airlines themselves can influence it. Bo Redeborn, EUROCONTROL Director Cooperative Network Design, approved the further development of this series of studies with the objective of increasing the depth of knowledge. I am grateful to him for his support and encouragement. Thanks go to the STATFOR team, Claire Leleu and Magda Gregorova for their technical support and expertise. I am grateful to EUROCONTROL’s Corporate Communications Service, Caroline Cochaux and Lucia Pasquini for their help in the design and publication of this document. Thanks go to a number of people who gave their input, reviewed the document, suggested changes and helped in the proof reading. Notable amongst these were Milena Studic during her traineeship at CODA, Eric Moyson from IACA, Mark Deacon from Monarch Airlines, Daniella Massart from Brussels Airlines, Gerrit Klempert and Jens Armenat from Lufthansa. Any remaining errors are our own. The views expressed in this document are those of the author and should not be construed to represent any official policy or view of the EUROCONTROL organisation itself. Yves De Wandeler Volume Author: EUROCONTROL Trends in Air Traffic CODA Analyst EUROCONTROL 1 www.eurocontrol.int/prc/gallery/content/public/PRR_2008.pdf ii Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality Trends in Air Traffic l Volume 7 Foreword EUROCONTROL has a unique archive of detailed airline punctuality data in Europe, covering some 6 million flights per year (or 60% of all yearly filed flight plans). For more than ten years the Central Office for Delay Analysis (CODA) has been collecting scheduled and actual times direct from airlines. Drawing on the trends it finds in the Agency archives, the Trends in Air Traffic series aims at giving an insight into some specific aspects of European aviation. The aim of these reports is to help stakeholders, and ourselves, to understand better the traffic trends that we see. Increasingly, we are also making traffic and punctuality statistics available on the web through the CODA portal1 and STATFOR interactive dashboard2, but that has not taken away the value in having reference documents presenting the key figures. Trends 23 discussed how flight delays are categorised and measured in Europe. This issue of Trends aims to bridge new planning indicators with post-flight delay analysis. The object of these studies is to inform and educate stakeholders across the industry thereby ensuring common understanding of the issue we face. We believe this report will be a useful contribution to the unders- tanding of this important characteristic of the Air Traffic Management network; a small contribution to improving performance of the network to everyone’s benefit. David Marsh Series Editor: EUROCONTROL Trends in Air Traffic Head of Unit, Forecasting and Traffic Analysis EUROCONTROL 1 See www.eurocontrol.int/coda. 2 See www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid. 3 A Matter of Time : Air Traffic Delays in Europe, EUROCONTROL Trends in Air Traffic Volume 2, September 2007. Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality Trends in Air Traffic l Volume 7 iii Summary Summary Trends in Air Traffic Volume 7 (TIAT7) – Planning for Delay Building on TIAT2 (A Matter of Time: Air Traffic Delays in Europe) TIAT7 intends to elaborate further on the punctuality drivers for air traffic in Europe. A key aspect of delay analysis is a good understanding of the definition of delay: “The time lapse which occurs when a planned event does not happen at the planned time.” A crucial driver for good punctuality is good planning. An important source of information is the internal database of the airline. This can be enriched with external data if the airline’s own data source proves to be insufficient. The scheduling department of an airline has a very difficult task to create a “realistic” route programme for each (IATA) season that makes optimum use of the available resources. When a schedule or block time is too long an airline will not be able to make optimum use of its resources (staff, airframe, infrastructure, etc). These resources will be blocked for too long and potential revenue is lost. On the other hand, an airline will generate a lot of rotational delays (Late Incoming Aircraft, Crew or Passengers from a previous Flight) if the schedule is too short. Flights leaving on time will in many cases arrive after the scheduled time of arrival and will potentially generate reactionary delays. A scheduled block time (or timetable) can be influenced by numerous variables: distance that needs to be covered (or the city- pair), choice of airframe, availability of ATS routes (difference between weekdays and weekends), night curfews, availability of airport slots in the case of coordinated airports, inclusion of schedule padding, prevailing winds whilst in flight, taxi-times, etc. In this issue of Trends in Air Traffic we take a closer look at the variability in the duration of the three phases of each flight between leaving the gate at the departure airport and arriving at the gate at the destination airport: Taxi-Out, Flight phase and Taxi-In. These three phases make the actual block time. Most airlines base their schedules on the length of historical block times. Any change in actual block times will ultimately have an effect on the scheduled times. The Block Time Overshoot and Delay Difference Indicator-Flight are two new punctuality indicators that are introduced in this document. They are defined below. The Block Time Overshoot (BTO) indicates the percentage of actual block times which are longer than the scheduled block time (during an observed period). The BTO of flights operated in Europe is typically between 25% and 35%. The Delay Difference Indicator – Flight (DDI-F) is the difference between the arrival punctuality and departure punctuality expressed in minutes. Flights operated ahead of schedule can therefore have a negative delay figure. The DDI-F of flights operated in Europe, with a tendency to be slightly negative, is typically around -3 minutes. In the current highly competitive market, airlines are constantly trying to reduce their cost base. One major cost element is fuel. Flying slower often means less fuel consumption and less costs. Will this have an effect on the future schedules? Another important driver for good punctuality is a good understanding of events that may influence the airlines’ on-time perfor- mance and the implementation of a remedy in the case of serious operational shortcomings. A thorough post-flight analysis is essential in this regard. Cultivating a no-blame culture and correct data collection is paramount. Data sharing helps to better understand the constraints of individual airlines. This is one of the strong aspects of the EUROCONTROL Central Office for Delay Analysis (CODA). By supplying data to CODA, airlines can access a database representing around 65% of all IFR flights in Europe1. vi Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality Trends in Air Traffic l Volume 7 The CODA data partners are aircraft operators, ANSP’s2, airports and CFMU3. Delay analysis based on CFMU data is referred to as ATFCM4 delays. Delay analysis based on data supplied by other data partners is referred to as “All Causes of delay”. CODA publishes regular reports on the delay situation in Europe. Apart from these public reports, data partners can access on-line analysis tools via the secured pages of the CODA web portal. In this document, we take a closer look at the available tools and data sources on these secured web pages. More detailed information can also be found on www.eurocontrol.int/coda This document is not a magic wand that can achieve a 100% punctuality rate for all flights, nor does it want to point at airlines performing below the European average. It is a guideline for all stakeholders to improve the understanding of delay analysis: comparing a schedule with the actual event. New delay indicators and availability of data (through CODA) supplied by an increasing number of aircraft operators will enhance the analysis and understanding of delay occurrence and propagation. And finally, this document also serves as a reference document by including tables of actual taxi-times at all major European airports in the annexes. 1 Europe: for the purpose of this study Europe consists of the EUROCONTROL Member States, see the Glossary for an overview of States included. 2 ANSP: Air Navigation Service Provider 3 CFMU: Central Flow Management Unit 4 ATFCM: Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality Trends in Air Traffic l Volume 7 vii viii Planning for Delay: influence of flight scheduling on airline punctuality Trends in Air Traffic l Volume 7 Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. CODA Statistics 4 3. Some definitions 7 4. The art of good scheduling 10 5. New CODA indicators for schedule sensitivity to arrival delays 17 5.1 Planner’s Indicator 1: Block Time Overshoot (BTO) 18 5.2 Planner’s Indicator 2: Delay Difference Indicator-Flight (DDI-F) 22 5.3 Example: Indicators for flights on Frankfurt to Istanbul route 25 6.