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Winter Cloud Seeding Potential on the Mogollon

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WINTER CLOUD SEEDIN POTENTIAL ON THE MOGOLLON RIM FINAL REPORT PREPARED FOR ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES UNDER IGA-88-6189-000-0051 JANUARY 1989 , U.S. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Denver Research and laboratory Services DivWon Water Augmentation Group POTENTIAL ON THE EPORTPREPAREDFOR ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES UNDER IGA-88-6189-000-0051 03720 7. AUTHOR(S) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. Arlin B. Super, Edmond W. Hdroyd, Ill, and Jack T. McPartland R-89-02 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. WORK UNIT NO. Bureau of Reclamation Denver Office 11. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO. Denver CO 80225 IGA-88-6189-000-0051 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD - COVERED 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS I State of Arizona I Department of Water Resources 1 15 South 15th Avenue 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE R 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES I Microfiche and hard copy available at the Denver Office, Denver, Colorado. 16. ABSTRACT Natural doud and precipitation processes were investigated on the Mogollon Rim of Arizona during midJanuary to midMarch of 1987 and 1988. The primary goal was to evaluate the cloud seeding potential of winter storms prior to attempting any seeding. It was crucial to monitor the availability of supercooled CLW (cloud liquid water) required for precipitation development, and this was accomplished with a ground-based microwave radiometer and instrumented aircraft. Other measurements of importance included doud depth and structure, atmospheric stabilii, winds, doud ice particles and water droplets, and surface precipitation. The field measurements were put in the context of large-scale weather patterns using standard weather maps and satellite photographs. A secondary goal involved evaluation of ground-based seeding simulated by transport and diffusion experiments using a tracer gas. Several important findings emerged from the various analyses of the data Cloud liquid water was available during portions of most storm episodes. The flux of liquid water passing over the crestline during a 4-month winter was estimated at 30 to 100 percent of the mean annual runoff from the study areas. Thus, the raw material required for successful cloud seeding was available in reasonable abundance. The majority of the total CLW flux for each season was produced during a few large storms that were efficient in producing snowfall during portions of their lifetimes but quite inefficient during other periods. The total flux for both seasons was approximately equally divided between 326 hours (85 percent of all hours) with vertically integrated CLW amounts less than 0.20 mm and 59 hours (15 percent) with amounts between 0.20 and 0.65 mm. The amount of CLW produced by local storms or isolated clouds was limited. The transport hddision studies revealed that plumes of ground-based seeding material could usually fill most of the lowest kilometer of doudy air passing over the crest during periods with stratiform douds. However, this zone was often too warm for significant ice nucleation with conventional types of silver iodide and generators. Airaaft seeding would likely be required for a large fraction of the Arizona storm clouds. Recommendations are mdfor future experiments designed to document the physical chain of events following pmicular seeding treatments. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS DEscR lPToRs-- Weather modification/ doud seed / precipitationaugmenta,tkm/ precipitation enhancement/ artificial seeding/ cloud physics omg~bdpuds/w mdedItquid water/ doud li "id water liquid water content/ ice crystalsf snow/ preetp~tatlon~se tracking/ transport and dqkusion/ ~~s/ b. I NTIF ERS-- ~o~ollon'Rim/H y Jack Hanna n Meadow/ WieMountains/ Fla staff/ &he/ F& / Cooonhlo ~ational%st/drBSCOttBercd( National Forest/ Camp \Berde/ .. &f~ld!!%k!!p @lB COWRR: 0402.1 SRIM: 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT 19. SECURITY CLASS Pl. NO. OF PAGE (THIS REPORT) Available fmm the National Technical Information Servlce, Operations u~c~~SSl~l~D- Division. 5285 Port Royal Road. Springfield. Virginia 22161. 20. SECURITY CLASS 22. PRICE173 ITUIS PAGE) WINTER CLOUD SEEDING POTENTIAL ON THE . MOGOLLON RtM FINAL REPORT PREPARED FOR ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES UNDER tGA-88-6189-0004051 Arlin B. Super Edmond W. Holroyd, Ill Jack T. McPartland Water Augmentation Group Research and Laboratory Services Division Denver Office Denver, Colorado January 1989 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR * BUREAU OF RECLAMATION ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigations discussed in this report were jointly supported by the Arizona Department of Water Resources; Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region; Central Arizona Project Association; Central Arizona Water Conservation District; Maricopa Water District; and Salt River Project. Several other agencies provided substantial assistance in conduct of the project. Significant contributions were made by the Federal Aviation Administration: Albuquerque Air Route Traffic Control Center, Scottsdale Flight Standards District Office, and Prescott Flight Service Station; U.S. Forest Service; Apache, Coconino, Prescott, and Sitgreaves National Forests; and U.S. Department of the Interior, Office of Aircraft Services. Don Griffith, John Thompson, Bill Hauze, Rich Benner, George Wilkerson, and Marty Thorp of North American Weather Consultants made substantial contributions to the 1987 field program. Wayne Sand and George Bershinski of the University of Wyoming capably managed the research aircraft program and provided their skills as pilots. John Lease provided direction for the Bureau of Reclamation's Water Augmentation Group. Others from this group who made significant contributions include Mike Collins and Glenn Cascino who provided electronics expertise and, in particular, Bruce Boe who accomplished substantial software development and preliminary analysis in support of this work, including section 5.8. Mary Ann Trujillo made significant editing and organizational contributions to the final report. As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses our energyand minerai resources and works 10 assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in Island Territories under U.S. Administration. The information contained in this report regarding commercial products or firms may not be used for advertising or promotional purposes and is not to be construed as an endorsement of any product or firm by the Bureau of Reclamation. The information contained in this report was developed for the Bureau of Reclamation; no warranty as to the accuracy, usefulness, or completeness is expressed or implied. 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report documents the data collection and subsequent analyses from the first two field programs of the Arizona Snowpack Augmentation Program. The purpose of these field programs was to examine the suitability of winter clouds over the Mogollon Rim area for possible future weather modification activities aimed at increasing water supplies. Only naturally occurring cloud systems were studied during the period of this report, and no cloud seeding was conducted. Measurement programs were carried out during the mid-January to mid-March period of both 1987 and 1988. Two different primary ground-observing sites were used, both near the crest of the high terrain. During early 1987, that site was Happy Jack, south of Flagstaff, while Hannagan Meadow in the White Mountains of eastern Arizona was used in early 1988. The 1987 program was more comprehensive, including aircraft, radar, and other observations not available during 1988. One of the initial analysis efforts was to develop a storm episode classification system. In its final form, each hour of each storm was typed by the scale of the weather disturbance causing it, whether synoptic (affecting a large area) or mesoscale (affecting a local area), and by the presence or absence of significant convection; that is, whether the clouds were predominantly stratiform or convective. This dual classification provided a framework for other analyses. The most important field observations were of cloud liquid water, chiefly collected by a ground-based microwave radiometer. This relatively new instrument can continuously monitor the vertically integrated amount of cloud liquid water above it. Winter precipitation over the Mogollon Rim is produced when the normally supercooled (colder than 0 °c) cloud liquid water is converted into tiny ice particles that grow to snowflake size and settle to the surface. Consequently, it is very important to measure the cloud liquid water overhead as it is the "raw material" or "fuel" for precipitation. It is known that cloud liquid water often forms over the windward side of mountain barriers due to the uplift and associated cooling of moist air. Conversely, the cloud liquid water rapidly evaporates on the lee side due to subsidence and warming of the air, resulting in the well-known "rain shadow" effect downwind of many mountain ranges. In the Arizona studies, the radiometer was located so
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