Weather and Forecasting Challenges in the Pacific
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Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1997
2440 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 127 Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 1997 MILES B. LAWRENCE Tropical Prediction Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 15 June 1998, in ®nal form 20 October 1998) ABSTRACT The hurricane season of the eastern North Paci®c basin is summarized and individual tropical cyclones are described. The number of tropical cyclones was near normal. Hurricane Pauline's rainfall ¯ooding killed more than 200 people in the Acapulco, Mexico, area. Linda became the strongest hurricane on record in this basin with 160-kt 1-min winds. 1. Introduction anomaly. Whitney and Hobgood (1997) show by strat- Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the east- i®cation that there is little difference in the frequency of eastern Paci®c tropical cyclones during El NinÄo years ern North Paci®c basin (east of 1408W). Seventeen trop- ical cyclones reached at least tropical storm strength and during non-El NinÄo years. However, they did ®nd a relation between SSTs near tropical cyclones and the ($34 kt) (1 kt 5 1nmih21 5 1852/3600 or 0.514 444 maximum intensity attained by tropical cyclones. This ms21) and nine of these reached hurricane force ($64 kt). The long-term (1966±96) averages are 15.7 tropical suggests that the slightly above-normal SSTs near this storms and 8.7 hurricanes. Table 1 lists the names, dates, year's tracks contributed to the seven hurricanes reach- maximum 1-min surface wind speed, minimum central ing 100 kt or more. pressure, and deaths, if any, of the 1997 tropical storms In addition to the infrequent conventional surface, and hurricanes, and Figs. -
Subtropical Storms in the South Atlantic Basin and Their Correlation with Australian East-Coast Cyclones
2B.5 SUBTROPICAL STORMS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN AND THEIR CORRELATION WITH AUSTRALIAN EAST-COAST CYCLONES Aviva J. Braun* The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 1. INTRODUCTION With the exception of warmer SST in the Tasman Sea region (0°−60°S, 25°E−170°W), the climate associated with South Atlantic ST In March 2004, a subtropical storm formed off is very similar to that associated with the coast of Brazil leading to the formation of Australian east-coast cyclones (ECC). A Hurricane Catarina. This was the first coastal mountain range lies along the east documented hurricane to ever occur in the coast of each continent: the Great Dividing South Atlantic basin. It is also the storm that Range in Australia (Fig. 1) and the Serra da has made us reconsider why tropical storms Mantiqueira in the Brazilian Highlands (Fig. 2). (TS) have never been observed in this basin The East Australia Current transports warm, although they regularly form in every other tropical water poleward in the Tasman Sea tropical ocean basin. In fact, every other basin predominantly through transient warm eddies in the world regularly sees tropical storms (Holland et al. 1987), providing a zonal except the South Atlantic. So why is the South temperature gradient important to creating a Atlantic so different? The latitudes in which TS baroclinic environment essential for ST would normally form is subject to 850-200 hPa formation. climatological shears that are far too strong for pure tropical storms (Pezza and Simmonds 2. METHODOLOGY 2006). However, subtropical storms (ST), as defined by Guishard (2006), can form in such a. -
Downloaded 09/24/21 04:27 PM UTC 1512 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 146
MAY 2018 C A V I C C H I A E T A L . 1511 Energetics and Dynamics of Subtropical Australian East Coast Cyclones: Two Contrasting Cases LEONE CAVICCHIA School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia ANDREW DOWDY Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia KEVIN WALSH School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia (Manuscript received 27 October 2017, in final form 13 March 2018) ABSTRACT The subtropical east coast region of Australia is characterized by the frequent occurrence of low pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs). The more intense ECLs can cause severe damage and disruptions to this region. While the term ‘‘east coast low’’ refers to a broad classification of events, it has been argued that different ECLs can have substantial differences in their nature, being dominated by baroclinic and barotropic processes in different degrees. Here we reexamine two well-known historical ECL case studies under this perspective: the Duck storm of March 2001 and the Pasha Bulker storm of June 2007. Exploiting the cyclone phase space analysis to study the storms’ full three-dimensional structure, we show that one storm has features similar to a typical extratropical frontal cyclone, while the other has hybrid tropical–extratropical charac- teristics. Furthermore, we examine the energetics of the atmosphere in a limited area including both systems for the ECL occurrence times, and show that the two cyclones are associated with different signatures in the energy conversion terms. We argue that the systematic use of the phase space and energetics diagnostics can form the basis for a physically based classification of ECLs, which is important to advance the understanding of ECL risk in a changing climate. -
The Unnamed Atlantic Tropical Storms of 1970
944 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vol. 99, No. 12 UDC 551.515.23:661.507.35!2:551.607.362.2(261) “1970.08-.lo” THE UNNAMED ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS OF 1970 DAVID B. SPIEGLER Allied Research Associates, Inc., Concord, Mass. ABSTRACT A detailed analysis of conventional and aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite pictures for two unnamed Atlantic Ocean cyclones during 1970 indicates that the stqrms were of tropical nature and were probably of at least minimal hurricane intensity for part of their life history. Prior to becoming a hurricane, one of the storms exhibited characteristics not typical of any of the recognized classical cyclone types [i.e., tropical, extratropical, and subtropical (Kona)]. The implications of this are discussed and the concept of semitropical cyclones as a separate cyclone category is advanced. 6. INTRODUCTION ing recognition of hybrid-type storms provides additional support for the recommendation. During the 1970 tropical cyclone season, tn7o storms occurred that were not given names at the time. The 2. UNNAMED STORM NO. I-AUG. Q3-$8, 6970 National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitored their prog- ress and issued bulletins throughout their life history but A mell-organized tropical disturbance noted on satellite they mere not officially recognized as tropical cyclones of pictures during August 8, south of the Cape Verde Islands tropical storm or hurricane intensity. In their annual post- in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, intensified to ti strong season summary of the hurricane season, NHC discusses depression as it moved westmarcl. On Thursday, August 13, these storms in some detail (Simpson and Pelissier 1971) some further intensification of the system appeared to be but thej- are not presently included in the official list of taking place while the depression was about 250 mi 1970 tropical storms. -
Lang Hurricane Basic Information Flyer
LANG FLYER INFORMATION BASIC LANG HURRICANE HURRICANE BASIC INFORMATION FLYER FLYER This flyer will try to explain what actions to take when you receive a hurricane watch or warning alert from the INFORMATION INFORMATION National Weather Service for your local area. It also provides tips on what to do before, during, and after a hurricane. https://www.ready.gov/hurricane-toolkit LANG EM WEB PAGE: LANG HURRICANE BASIC BASIC LANG HURRICANE http://geauxguard.la.gov/resources/emergency-management/ 1 Hurricane Basics What Hurricanes are massive storm systems that form over the water and move toward land. Threats from hurricanes include high winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, coastal and inland flooding, rip currents, and tornadoes. These large storms are called typhoons in the North Pacific Ocean and cyclones in other parts of the world. Where Each year, many parts of the United States experience heavy rains, strong winds, floods, and coastal storm surges from tropical storms and hurricanes. Affected areas include all Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas and areas over 100 miles inland, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii, parts of the Southwest, the Pacific Coast, and the U.S. territories in the Pacific. A significant per cent of fatalities occur outside of landfall counties with causes due to inland flooding. When The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak occurring between mid- August and late October. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15 and ends November 30. Basic Preparedness Tips •Know where to go. If you are ordered to evacuate, know the local hurricane evacuation route(s) to take and have a plan for where you can stay. -
Flood of August 1950 in the Waimea Area Kauai, Hawaii
Flood of August 1950 in the Waimea Area Kauai, Hawaii > R. K. CHUN :^LOODS OF 1950 GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WATER-SUPPLY PAPER 1137-C ^repared in cooperation with the Territory of Hawaii UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, WASHINGTON : 1952 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Oscar L. Chapman, Secretary GEOLOGICAL SURVEY W. E. Wrather, Director For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U. S. Government Printing Office Washington 25, D. C. - Price 15 cents (paper cover) PREFACE This report on the flood of August 1950 in Kauai, T. H., was prepared in the Surface Water Branch, J. V. B. Wells, Chief. The material was assem bled and the text was written by R. K. Chun, hydraulic engineer, under the immediate super vision of M. H. Carson, District Engineer. Base data used in this report were collected in cooperation with the Territory of Hawaii. The Weather Bureau furnished a discussion on the meteorology of the storm and a map showing the path of the hurricane. The collection of data for indirect determination of peak discharges was supervised, and the computations made, by Hollister Johnson, hydraulic engineer. Ill CONTENTS Page Introduction ..................................................... 327 Stages and discharges at stream-gaging stations ..................... 327 Waimea River near Waimea, Kauai .............................. 331 Kawaikoi Stream near Waimea, Kauai ............................ 332 Mohihi Stream near Waimea/ Kauai .............................. 333 Makaweli River near Waimea, Kauai ............................. 334 Combined discharge of Waimea and Makaweli Rivers ............... 335 Summary of flood data ............................................ 337 Flood stages and discharges ..................................... 337 Annual floods in Waimea River ................................... 337 Physical features of Kauai'........................................ 342 Meteorological features of the flood ................................ 343 Precipitation................................................... 343 Meteorology, by R. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
The Climatology and Nature of Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North
THE CLIMATOLOGY AND NATURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCE<\N Herbert Loye Hansen Library . U.S. Naval Postgraduate SchdOl Monterey. California 93940 L POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California 1 h i £L O 1 ^ The Climatology and Nature of Trop ical Cy clones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean by Herbert Loye Hansen Th ssis Advisor : R.J. Renard September 1972 Approved ^oh. pubtic tidLixu, e; dLitnAhiLtlon anturuJitd. TU9568 The Climatology and Nature of Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean by Herbert Loye Hansen Commander, United 'States Navy B.S., Drake University, 1954 B.S., Naval Postgraduate School, 1960 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN METEOROLOGY from the b - duate School y s ^594Q Mo:.--- Lilornia ABSTRACT Meteorological satellites have revealed the need for a major revision of existing climatology of tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The years of reasonably good satellite coverage from 1965 through 1971 provide the data base from which climatologies of frequency, duration, intensity, areas of formation and dissipation and track and speed characteristics are compiled. The climatology of re- curving tracks is treated independently. The probable structure of tropical cyclones is reviewed and applied to this region. Application of these climatolo- gies to forecasting problems is illustrated. The factors best related to formation and dissipation in this area are shown to be sea-surface temperature and vertical wind shear. The cyclones are found to be smaller and weaker than those of the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. -
Mariner's Guide for Hurricane Awareness
Mariner’s Guide For Hurricane Awareness In The North Atlantic Basin Eric J. Holweg [email protected] Meteorologist Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch Tropical Prediction Center National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration August 2000 Internet Sites with Weather and Communications Information Of Interest To The Mariner NOAA home page: http://www.noaa.gov NWS home page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov NWS marine dissemination page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/home.htm NWS marine text products: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/forecast.htm NWS radio facsmile/marine charts: http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/marine.shtml NWS publications: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/nwspub.htm NOAA Data Buoy Center: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov NOAA Weather Radio: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr National Ocean Service (NOS): http://co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ NOS Tide data: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ USCG Navigation Center: http://www.navcen.uscg.mil Tropical Prediction Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ High Seas Forecasts and Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/forecast.html Marine Prediction Center: http://www.mpc.ncep.noaa.gov SST & Gulfstream: http://www4.nlmoc.navy.mil/data/oceans/gulfstream.html Hurricane Preparedness & Tracks: http://www.fema.gov/fema/trop.htm Time Zone Conversions: http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/zones.html Table of Contents Introduction and Purpose ................................................................................................................... 1 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................... -
A Synoptic World Weather Analysis of Tiros Vii Radiation Data
NASA TECHNICAL NOTE A SYNOPTIC WORLD WEATHER ANALYSIS OF TIROS VI1 RADIATION DATA bY Lewis J. Allison Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, M d. i I_ 'I and './ Gzrenter Wamecke Freie Universitlit Berlin Berlin, West Germany NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION 0 WASHINGTON, D. C. 0 JUNE 1967 TECH LIBRARY KAFB, NM I illlll11111111111111111111 IIIII lllll1l11 Ill1 hT A 0330533 A SYNOPTIC WORLD WEATHER ANALYSIS OF TIROS VI1 RADIATION DATA By Lewis J. Allison Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Md. and Guenter Warnecke Freie Universitgt Berlin Berlin, West Germany NATIONAL AERONAUT ICs AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION For sale by the Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technical Information Springfield, Virginia 22151 - CFSTI price $3.00 ABSTRACT A synoptic world weather analysis of TIROS VI1 radia- tion data was made for January 21-22, 1964. The distri- bution of quasi-global cloudiness inferred from the channel 2 (8-lap) "atmospheric window" data was compared with a previously published, July 16, 1961, study of TIROS 111 8-12p radiation data. The January 1964 radiation-synoptic analysis is characterized by a small difference in outgoing radiation between the winter and summer hemispheres. It was also noted that mid-latitude frontal systems extend into the sub-tropics during the southern hemisphere summer. The January-July radiation study tends to confirm our premise that the 8-1211. infrared region is suited for global synoptic detection and tracking of meso-scale meteorologi- cal features. ii ......... , CONTENTS Abstract .............................. INTRODUCTION ......................... METHOD OF ANALYSIS.. .................. THE TIROS VI1 AND TIROS 111 RADIATION ANALYSES OF JANUARY 21 -22, 1964 AND JULY 16,1961. -
9. East Pacific Easterly Wave Genesis Experiment
9. East Pacific Easterly Wave Genesis Experiment Principle Investigators: Ghassan Alaka (HRD) Adam Rydbeck (NRL) Eric Maloney (CSU) Links to IFEX Goals: Goal 1: Collect observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; Goal 3: Improve understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its lifecycle. Significance & Background: Many studies have hypothesized that African easterly waves (EWs) serve as seed disturbances for East Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) (e.g., Avila and Pasch 1992). However, it is often difficult to track African EWs crossing Central America and entering the East Pacific basin. In addition, African EWs may not be necessary to initiate EWs in the East Pacific. Several mechanisms for the in situ generation of EWs in the East Pacific have been proposed: 1) breakdown of the inter-tropical convergence zone (Ferriera and Schubert 1997), 2) barotropically unstable gap jets (Mozer and Zehnder 1996), 3) inertial instabilities from cross-equatorial pressure gradients (Toma and Webster 2010), 4) growth of vorticity noise by barotropic conversion in favorable basic states (Maloney and Hartmann 2001, Hartmann and Maloney 2001), and 5) upscale vorticity organization from diurnal convection in the Panama Bight (Rydbeck et al. 2016). This last mechanism for EW generation, proposed by Rydbeck et al. (2016), is the focus of this experiment. East Pacific EW initiation can occur near the coasts of Panama and Colombia, with little or no preceding signal propagating from the Atlantic Ocean (Rydbeck and Maloney 2014). The Panama Bight has the highest occurrence of organized deep convection on the planet based on the NOAA Highly Reflective Cloud dataset (Kilonsky and Ramage 1976). -
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-601 JUNE 8, 2012 Operations and Services Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program, NWSPD 10-6 TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS
Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-601 JUNE 8, 2012 Operations and Services Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program, NWSPD 10-6 TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: W/OS21 (T. Schott) Certified by: W/OS21 (M. Tew) Type of Issuance: Emergency SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes NWS Instruction 10-601, dated June 15, 2011. The following revisions were made to this directive: 1.1.3.3.d Standardizes CONUS policy for storm surge information in the TCP as the combination of storm surge and tides, to emphasize total water level (i.e., inundation) 1.5.2.3 Added WFO Guam policy 1.10.2.3 Added WFO Guam policy 7.1.3.4 Added WFO Guam policy 7.1.4 Updates HLS policy for relationship between the HLS and Rip Current Statement /RP.S/Changes to product examples in Appendix: Updates TWO examples Updates TCU example Updates TCP example with improved storm surge wording Signed May 25, 2012 David B. Caldwell Date Director, Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NWSI 10-601 JUNE 8, 2012 Tropical Cyclone Products 1. Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Advisory Products .............................................................4 1.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP) .............................................................4 1.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories (TCM) .....................................................11 1.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussions