The Fractured Ocean Current Challenges to Maritime Policy in the Wider Atlantic

The Fractured Ocean Current Challenges to Maritime Policy in the Wider Atlantic John Richardson Armando Marques Guedes Xavier de la Gorce Anne-François de Saint Salvy Paul Holthus Wider Atlantic Series The Fractured Ocean Current Challenges to Maritime Policy in the Wider Atlantic John Richardson Armando Marques Guedes Xavier de la Gorce Anne-François de Saint Salvy Paul Holthus December 2012 Wider Atlantic Series Table of Contents Preface e Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 1 Geopolitical Shifts in the Wider Atlantic: Past, Present, and Future 11 Introduction . .11 . Historical Development in the Wider Rim: The First Steps . .13 . From Feast to Fast: The South Atlantic’s Short 19th Century . 17. The 20th Century: A Rebalancing from South to North . 20. Wider Atlantic Maritime Transport Flow Changes and Their Structural Basis 27 Mapping Systemic Pressures and Future Prospects: The Four Main Security Sub-Regions of the South Atlantic . .37 . Ports and Maritime Security in the South. 45 Looking Ahead, Informed by the Past . 49 What Lies Ahead? . .56 . 2 Evolution of Illegal Activities at Sea and Governments’ Responses to Them 59 Introduction . .59 . Illegal Activities Threatening Maritime Security . 60. Activities Abusing Maritime Freedom for Illegal Goals. 74 Legal Activities Affecting the Marine Environment and Resources . .88 . Conclusions and Policy Recommendations . 89 3 Fisheries: A Resource in Crisis 91 Introduction . .91 . Governance for Transboundary Fisheries . 102 Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fisheries . 108 Climate Change . .112 . Aquaculture . 114. 4 Marine Natural Resources Extraction 119 Introduction . 119. Mineral Resources . 120. Bioprospecting . .131 . Renewable Energy . 142. Overall Conclusions 159 Bibliography/References 165 About the Authors 173 D WIDER ATLANTIC SERIES Preface arly on in GMF’s partnership with the OCP Foundation, we jointly identified maritime policy questions as central to the Efuture of the Atlantic Basin in economic, environmental, and security terms. It has also become clear that any fundamental rethinking of mental maps regarding the Atlantic, and a more imaginative approach to Atlanticism in general, requires serious attention to the ocean, and oceans policy. As this new report by John Richardson and others makes clear, a great deal is happening, or is set to happen, that will shape the economic and geopolitical future of the Atlantic space, with important implications for actors around the basin and beyond. From ports to piracy, from fisheries to offshore energy, global prosperity and stability will be influenced by developments in and around the Atlantic Ocean, north and south. Managing these maritime challenges and opportunities will be an essential element in future governance and cooperation among public and private sector stakeholders. This study is part of a multi-year series of publications exploring geopolitical and geo-economic questions affecting the wider Atlantic. The series is an essential complement to the Atlantic Dialogues, an annual large-scale forum organized by GMF and the OCP Foundation, with an emphasis on North-South and South- South dialogue in the Atlantic. Comments on this and other reports in this series are most welcome, and may be addressed to the authors or to me at GMF. Ian O. Lesser Executive Director GMF Transatlantic Center Brussels E Executive Summary his series of papers is dedicated to the hypothesis that analyzing the complex reality of international relations Tbetween the countries on opposite coasts of the Atlantic Ocean from the perspective of the Atlantic as a whole, rather than looking at two sets of transatlantic relations in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, can shed new light on old dilemmas and point the way toward new directions for government policy. This particular paper examines the challenges posed by human activity on the Atlantic Ocean itself, and around its coasts, looking at it not so much as a vast expanse separating the Americas from Africa and Europe but rather as a shared resource and an important connector. All littoral states face a common challenge in maintaining its value as a foundation for sustained “blue growth” in the years to come. The introduction to the paper sets the scene. It refers as well to the previous report in this series on “Energy and the Atlantic: Mapping the Shifting Energy Landscape of the Atlantic Basin,” and in particular to its conclusion that a southward shift in the center of gravity of the Atlantic Basin energy map is taking place. Whether this true for other sectors of activity is a question that recurs throughout this paper. Although taking care to examine policy challenges confronting all Atlantic states, the report also looks at their relative geographic importance, and as a result it relies to a considerable extent on their spatial representation in the form of maps. These show important differences for various parts of the ocean, affecting the acuteness of the challenges posed to states. Thus, shared policy dilemmas need to be analyzed in light of great heterogeneity among the coastal nations. In Chapter 1, Armando Marques Guedes traces the evolution of the economic activities that have determined the geoeconomic 1 development of the Atlantic and of the complex web of international relations that have grown up as a result. He details the importance of the slave trade and the associated growth of plantation culture, the changes as a result of the political independence of former colonies, and the growth in the most recent century of trade patterns fueled by globalization and associated port development but also of illegal activities such as drug trafficking, new forms of trafficking in people, illegal fisheries, and piracy. He concludes that patterns are indeed changing fastest in the southern Atlantic, and he identifies deficiencies both in the area of cooperative governance structures and in the capacities of the littoral states to police activities on the ocean. He explains why the current policy positions of the main participants represent a serious obstacle to improving on this situation. In Chapter 2, Xavier de la Gorce and Anne-François de Saint-Salvy examine the development of illegal activities on the Atlantic. They divide these into three classes: those such as piracy that impede legitimate maritime activities; those that lead to a degradation of the marine environment, for example, through the discharge of polluting substances; and those that abuse the freedom of the seas to engage in criminal activity such as arms smuggling or trafficking in people or drugs. In each case, careful attention is given not only to the overall development of each activity but also to its geographical distribution and to the Atlantic routes used. Thus, the Gulf of Guinea is identified as of particular concern with respect to piracy and the Caribbean as an area in which terrorism is a potential problem. And in each case, the possibilities for the detection of illegal activities, for their interdiction, and for bringing to justice their perpetrators are considered. The authors conclude that the development of illegal activities is of particular concern in the southern Atlantic since that is where their growth is strongest; this is to a considerable extent a result of lack of effective surveillance, insufficient cooperation and exchange of information between governments, and weak coastguard capabilities. Chapter 3 takes a look at fisheries in the Atlantic Basin. It paints a picture of the overexploitation of one of the planet’s most valuable living resources and shows how this has led to the decline of 2 fish and shellfish stocks in the northern hemisphere and is now threatening to do the same in the South Atlantic. It shows how ineffective management of fishing resources by individual nations and by the regional fisheries management organizations set up to provide broader oversight is exacerbated by the activities of illegal fishermen. It describes how improved management and surveillance can help to remedy this situation before it is too late. It also examines the role of capacity-enhancing subsidies granted by governments to fishing fleets and calls for their elimination. The chapter, a collaborative effort by Paul Holthus, Xavier de la Gorce, and Anne-François de Saint-Salvy, looks also at the impact of climate change on the distribution of fisheries stocks and activities. Finally, it assesses the prospects for the continued development of aquaculture. Chapter 4, written by Paul Holthus, investigates the exploitation of the resources of the Atlantic, both living and mineral, including renewable energy. He notes the geographic distribution of each resource and the extent of its current exploitation. In the case of mineral resources, this encompasses the many deep ocean resources that are potentially exploitable in the future, such as the polymetallic sulfides found on ocean ridges, which are becoming commercially interesting, something that does not apply to many other mineral deposits. The exploitation of such resources, in areas beyond national jurisdiction, is regulated by the International Seabed Authority, which was set up under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The chapter also looks at inshore mineral deposits, such as sand and gravel, which have been extracted for centuries. In this context, the environmental impact of the activities is examined. Bioprospecting in the oceans is also covered, and the shortcoming of its UN-based regulation are discussed.

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