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Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 Focuses on Stable Long Term Developments … Trend Compendium 2050 Six megatrends that will shape the world December 2020 #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 2 The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 focuses on stable long term developments … > The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Institute (RBI), the think tank of Roland Berger. Our Trend Compendium 2050 describes the most important megatrends shaping the world between now and 2050 > Our trend views are based on expert sources and assessments. Estimates reflect the normal case, i.e. a stable development of the global economy > To incorporate today's uncertainties into strategic planning, we recommend combining the megatrends of the Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 with the Roland Berger scenario planning approach Is it worth dealing with megatrends when there are such drastic global events as the Corona pandemic taking place? Clearly yes! The Corona pandemic has far-reaching consequences and affects us deeply, all within a very short time – but in itself the pandemic does not set aside the megatrends here analyzed. Such is the inherent nature of megatrends: Climate change, the aging of society or the ongoing evolution of technology do not lose their overriding direction or importance. To cope with such challenges – and to master resulting opportunities – our awareness and understanding of these megatrends is paramount in order to develop sustainable answers 2 2 #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 3 … and covers six megatrends that shape the future development of our world until 2050 1 2 3 4 5 6 People & Health Environment Economics Technology Politics & Society & Care & Resources & Business & Innovation Governance Population Pandemics & Climate Change Globalization Value of Future of Other Wildcards & Pollution Revisited Technology Democracy Migration Diseases & Resources & Power Shifts Artificial Governance & Values Treatments Raw Materials Intelligence Geopolitics Sectoral Education Caregiving Ecosystems Transformation Humans & Global Risks at Risk Machines Debt Challenge 3 3 #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 4 Megatrend 1 People & Society 4 #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 5 Trend overview People & Beyond mere demographics, people and society are at the core of our Society 1. Population thinking – People are on the move, rely on values and are eager to learn 2. Migration 3. Values 4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "People & Society" Health & Care 1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards 2. Diseases & Treatments 3. Caregiving Environment & Resources 1 2 3 4 1. Climate Change & Pollution 2. Resources & Raw Materials 3. Ecosystems at Risk Economics & Business 1. Globalization Revisited 2. Power Shifts 3. Sectoral Transformation 4. Debt Challenge Technology & Innovation 1. Value of Technology 2. Artificial Intelligence Population Migration Values Education 3. Humans & Machines Politics & Governance 1. Future of Democracy 2. Governance & Geopolitics 3. Global Risks 5 #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 6 Trend overview People & Population trends toward 2050 point at a myriad of changes across the Society 1. Population globe – For continents and countries, their growth rates and age structures 2. Migration 3. Values 4. Education Global population trends – Selected facts & figures Health & Care Despite global 1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards World population aging, huge 2. Diseases & Treatments in the 3. Caregiving growth is fueled by differences growth in less median age of Environment developed countries. & Resources countries persist in 1. Climate Change & Pollution Population in 2050: Niger: 19.0 2. Resources & Raw Materials Sub-Saharan 3. Ecosystems at Risk years vs. South Around 2027, Africa will In 2050, 1.9 Our world is aging. Korea: 56.5 India is expected to Economics double from & Business billion more In 2050 there will overtake China as the 1. Globalization Revisited 2020 to 2050 be more than 1.5 world's most 2. Power Shifts people will inhabit billion people aged 3. Sectoral Transformation our planet populous 65+ years 4. Debt Challenge (2020: 7.8 billion country. In 2050 (2020: 727 million) Technology 2050: 9.7 billion) India will have more & Innovation and 3.2 million than 1.6 billion 1. Value of Technology aged 100+ inhabitants 2. Artificial Intelligence 3. Humans & Machines Politics & Standing side by side, the predicted 9.7 billion strong population of 2050 would span the equator Governance more than 240 times. However, average global population density will only rise to 71 people per 1. Future of Democracy 1) 2. Governance & Geopolitics sq km – a quarter of the population density of the United Kingdom today 3. Global Risks 1) Calculated with the Earth's land area without Antarctica 6 Sources: UN Population Division; Roland Berger #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 7 Trend overview People & The rate of population growth is decreasing due to lower fertility rates – Society 1. Population In 2050, a vast majority of the 9.7 billion will live in less developed regions 2. Migration 3. Values 4. Education Evolution of world population Global population characteristics > According to the UN medium variant Health & 1950-2100 [bn] 2050 [%] prediction, the world population will Care grow at a slower pace between 2020 1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards and 2050 compared to previous 2100: 13% 2. Diseases & Treatments Economic origin Less developed regions decades, reaching a population of 9.7 3. Caregiving 10.9 bn of inhabitants Developed regions billion in 2050 87% Environment > The evolution of the world population is & Resources driven by two factors: The evolution of 1. Climate Change & Pollution fertility rates and the evolution of life 2. Resources & Raw Materials expectancy 3. Ecosystems at Risk 2050: Residential area 32% Rural – Global fertility rates are expected to of inhabitants1) Urban Economics 2020: 68% decrease from 2.5 births per woman in 2020 to 2.2 births per woman in & Business 7.8 bn 9.7 bn 1. Globalization Revisited 2050. This lowers the rate of 2. Power Shifts population growth 3. Sectoral Transformation – Average life expectancy is expected 16% 0-14 4. Debt Challenge Age of 21% to increase from 72.3 years in 2020 to 15-64 inhabitants 76.8 years in 2050. This drives Technology 63% 65+ population growth, but cannot totally & Innovation compensate for decreasing fertility 1. Value of Technology rates 2. Artificial Intelligence 3. Humans & Machines > In 2050, the majority of the global <70 population will stem from less Politics & 1950: Life expectancy 20% 26% developed regions, resides in urban 70-80 Governance 2.5 bn at birth areas is between 15 and 64 years old >80 1. Future of Democracy 54% and has a life expectancy of 70-80 years 2. Governance & Geopolitics 1950 2000 2050 2100 3. Global Risks 1) The definition of urban areas follows the definitions that are used in each country 7 Source: UN Population Division #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 8 Trend overview People & Over the next three decades, Africa's population will increase by more than Society 1. Population 1.1 billion – Asia still remains the world's population giant 2. Migration 3. Values 4. Education Population by continent Top five countries per region by population 1) Health & 2020 and 2050 [m] 2050 [m] Care 1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards 9,733 2. Diseases & Treatments 3. Caregiving Asia Asia India China Pakistan Indonesia Bangladesh Africa 1,639 1,402 338 331 193 Environment & Resources 7,796 LatAm/Caribbean Africa Nigeria Ethiopia D.R. Congo Egypt Tanzania 1. Climate Change & Pollution Europe 2. Resources & Raw Materials 5,290 401 205 194 160 129 3. Ecosystems at Risk Northern America Economics Oceania LatAm/ Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Peru & Business 4,641 Caribbean 229 155 56 55 40 1. Globalization Revisited 2. Power Shifts Europe Russia Germany UK France Italy 3. Sectoral Transformation 136 80 74 68 54 4. Debt Challenge 2,489 Technology 1,341 Northern USA Canada & Innovation America 379 46 1. Value of Technology 762 2. Artificial Intelligence 748 3. Humans & Machines 710 Oceania Australia Papua N. New 654 33 Guinea 14 Zealand 6 425 Politics & 43 369 57 Governance 2020 2050 1. Future of Democracy 2. Governance & Geopolitics 3. Global Risks 1) Only countries with at least 5 million inhabitants are included 8 Source: UN Population Division #PitchTeam (bespoke design, non-transferrable to other documents, cloud fonts in use) TC 2050_Compact version_v05.pptx 9 Trend overview People & All regions are aging with fewer people of working age having to support Society 1. Population more older people – Intercontinental differences remain significant 2. Migration 3. Values 4. Education Median age [years] and old-age potential support ratio by region > A low old-age support Health & 2020 vs. 2050 [people 20-64 / people 65+] ratio can have severe Care consequences for 1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards countries if a large 2. Diseases & Treatments proportion of state 3. Caregiving expenditure is allocated to e.g. health and social Environment 47.1 38.6 43.0 42.5 security, which is being & Resources 3.5 2.4 1.9 3.1 32.0 39.9 taken up to a greater extent 1. Climate Change & Pollution 6.8 2. Resources & Raw Materials 3.2 by older members of 3. Ecosystems at Risk Northern America Europe society Asia Economics > However, this ratio ignores & Business that people above the age 1. Globalization Revisited of 65 are not necessarily 2. Power Shifts dependent on support as a 3. Sectoral Transformation rising proportion is in work; 4. Debt Challenge reversely not all of those considered of working age Technology 24.8 are actually working 40.8 19.7 13.0 9.2 & Innovation 31.0 1.
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