Forecasting Attacks by Pest Insects of Cruciferous Crops Rosemary H
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The management of diamondback moth and other crucifer pests Forecasting attacks by pest insects of cruciferous crops Rosemary H Collier and Stan Finch Horticulture Research International, Wellesbourne, Warwick CV35 9EF UK Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract The timing of pest insect attacks can vary greatly from region to region and from year to year. A simulation method, based on rates of insect development, has been developed for forecasting the timing of insect attacks on cruciferous crops. The method is based on using a fixed number of individuals from one generation to the next and simulates the timing of events in the life cycle of the pests rather than their population dynamics. Forecasts produced for the cabbage root fly, the bronzed-blossom beetle and various species of Lepidoptera have been validated using pest monitoring data. Forecasts can be generated on either a regional basis from standard meteorological data, or on a local basis from air and soil temperatures collected by participating growers. Introduction Pest insects of horticultural crops are often controlled by spraying insecticide onto established crops. Such sprays are used against root-feeding insects because the insecticides applied at drilling or planting have usually degraded by the time the later generations of the pest become active. Sprays are also the simplest way of controlling foliar pests such as aphids and caterpillars. As the majority of insecticides recommended currently are of relatively short persistence, treatments are most effective if they are targeted to coincide with periods of peak pest activity. Unfortunately, the timing of such peaks can vary considerably from region to region and from year to year. Although it is possible to monitor the activity of many pest species using insect traps, routine monitoring is laborious and often requires specialist knowledge. An alternative is to use weather data to forecast the timing of pest attacks. Forecasting systems have been developed for many insects. Many of these forecasts have been based on accumulated day-degrees (e.g. Eckenrode & Chapman 1972, Butts & McEwen 1981). However, day-degree forecasts have severe limitations, as their accuracy is based on the assumption that the relationship between the rate of insect development and temperature is strictly linear (Baker 1980). In addition, day-degree forecasts can be used only to predict the start and/or the peak of activity of the population. They cannot readily predict the spread of activity nor can they cope easily with insect populations that have polymodal patterns of activity. For example, the cabbage root fly (Delia radicum) can occur as one of two developmental biotypes, that emerge either `early' (April-May) or `late' (June-July) in the season (Finch & Collier 1983; Finch et al. 1988). As a result, the population of cabbage root flies within a particular locality, may consist primarily of one biotype or be a mixture of the two. Further problems in using day-degree models occur when attempts are made to include periods of diapause or aestivation, the major phases of insect dormancy that are induced by changes in temperature or photoperiod. As it is usual for only a proportion of the insect population to respond at any one time to a particular environmental cue, there is always variation between individuals in their rates of development. This is true of cabbage root fly populations during both aestivation and diapause (Collier & Finch 1983, Finch & Collier 1985). At Horticulture Research International, a simulation method, based on rates of insect development and which allows for variation within the individuals in the insect population, has been produced for forecasting the timing of attack by a number of pest insects (Phelps et al. 1993). The simulation method has been used to develop forecasts for the cabbage root fly, bronzed-blossom beetles (Meligethes spp.) and more recently for some of the pest Lepidoptera of Brassica crops. The cabbage root fly and bronzed-blossom beetle forecasts are now used by growers. Similar forecasts for caterpillars are being validated currently. The biological basis, validation and practical uses of such forecasts are discussed in this paper. The model The forecasts were developed using a Monte Carlo simulation method (Phelps et al. 1993). The method uses a fixed number of individuals (usually 500, to obtain repeatable simulations) from one generation to the next and simulates the timing of events rather than the population dynamics of the insects. To develop each model, individuals at each stage of development (egg, larva, pupa, adult) were reared in cooling incubators Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop, Nov. 2001, Melbourne, Australia 163 The management of diamondback moth and other crucifer pests at a range of constant temperatures between 6 and 30oC. The data recorded were used to determine the relationship between the rate of insect development and temperature. Linear or non-linear (Gompertz) curves were fitted to these data to provide equations, which could be incorporated into the model. In addition, variability was incorporated using the 'same-shape property' (Sharpe et al. 1977, Shaffer 1983). This implies that the coefficient of variation of the rate of insect development is constant at all temperatures. Account was taken also of periods of dormancy (aestivation and diapause) and of activity thresholds which might affect the outcome of the forecasts. Ideally, the forecasts should be run using daily maximum and minimum air temperatures and maximum and minimum soil temperatures at a depth of 6-10 cm. However, maximum and minimum soil temperatures are not available from standard agro-meteorological stations in the UK. Therefore, the program uses several equations to estimate soil maximum and minimum temperatures from the air maximum, air minimum and 10 cm soil temperatures recorded daily at 09.00 h GMT (Phelps et al. 1993). If data for soil maximum and minimum temperatures are available, then the forecasts could be run equally well using these. In general, the forecasts are run using accumulated temperatures for which the accumulation is started usually on 1 February each year. This is because late January is the natural break in insect development as it is usually the period of the year when temperatures are at their lowest. When temperatures start to rise again in the spring most of the species that overwinter in diapause have completed their diapause development and are ready to start post-diapause development. The diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) is an exception. This species does not appear to overwinter successfully in large numbers in the UK (R. Collier, unpublished data) and the majority of insects are migrants from Europe and North Africa. Thus the forecast model has to be triggered by the arrival of migrant moths. Forecast validation The forecasts are validated using insect monitoring data. Cabbage root flies are monitored using either yellow water traps (Finch & Skinner 1974) or by sampling for fly eggs (Finch et al. 1975); bronzed-blossom beetles by using yellow sticky traps (Finch et al. 1990) and pest Lepidoptera by using yellow water traps, pheromone traps (for moth species) and by sampling plants for eggs and larvae. Cabbage root fly The cabbage root fly forecast (Collier et al. 1991) was developed originally for timing the application of mid-season insecticide treatments to control the fly on long-season Brassica crops such as swedes. Other uses of the forecast include warnings of the likely onset of third generation attack to Brussels sprout buttons and to autumn-sown crops of oilseed rape. At present, most insecticide treatments to leafy brassicas are applied prophylactically, before or soon after transplanting, and treatment against subsequent generations of this fly is usually unnecessary. However, the forecast could be used to indicate 'windows' where treatments would not be required. Figure 1 shows a comparison of the observed and forecast cabbage root fly activity at Kirton, Lincolnshire in 1999. Local variations in cabbage root fly activity include the co-existence in certain regions of the two developmental biotypes, with diapause of different durations (Finch & Collier 1983; Collier et al. 1989). Late-emerging flies emerge several weeks later than early-emerging flies so that, in effect, the generations of the two biotypes alternate. Similar damage to brassicas is caused by the closely-related turnip fly (Delia floralis) in Scotland and in some areas of south-west Lancashire (Finch et al. 1986). The presence of the two cabbage root fly biotypes and turnip fly in areas of south-west Lancashire means that in that specific locality there is continuous root fly pressure to Brassica crops throughout the summer. The cabbage root fly model produces forecasts for populations that contain specified proportions of the two biotypes. A turnip fly forecast has not yet been developed. The cabbage root fly model has also been used to predict the changes that might occur as a result of global warming (Collier et al. 1990) and to predict cabbage root fly phenology in Spain, an EU member country in which calabrese production for the UK market can be affected severely by damage done to the crop florets by fly larvae. 164 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop, Nov. 2001, Melbourne, Australia The management of diamondback moth and other crucifer pests 3 3.5 3.0 2 2.5 2 2.0 1.5 1 1.0 No. eggs/plant/day 1 0.5 Forecast percentage eggs/day 0 0.0 y y g g pr pr a a un un ul ul ul u u ep ep -A -A M M J J -J -J -J A A S S 8 2 - - 3- 8- 1 5 9 - - 9- 2- 2 7 20 1 1 2 12 27 2 Observed Forecast Figure 1. Comparison of the numbers of cabbage root fly eggs laid at Kirton, Lincolnshire in 1999 with a forecast of egg hatch generated using data from the nearby weather station.