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Pharmaceuticals Healthy Performance; Retain Neutral Stance Sector Update

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Pharmaceuticals Healthy Performance; Retain Neutral Stance Sector Update Pharmaceuticals Healthy performance; Retain neutral stance Sector Update Pharmaceutical companies under Sharekhan’s universe reported a healthy Q4FY2020 Results Review performance for Q4FY2020. Q4FY2020 results reflected the partial impact of COVID-19 related disruptions. The quarter witnessed stabilization of price Sector: Pharmaceuticals erosion in the US markets . Also, approvals from the US regulator – USFDA have relatively increased, which augurs well for Indian pharma companies Sector View: Neutral with US exposure. In Q4FY2020, Sharekhan’s pharma universe delivered a revenue growth of 8.2% y-o-y (slightly better than the estimates of 7%), largely driven by strong growth in domestic operations. Select players such as Aurobindo Pharma and IPCA reported a strong growth in the exports segment as well. Operating profit margin (OPM) for the universe declined by Our active coverage universe 70 BPS y-o-y to 19.6%. Higher cost pressures due to the impact of COVID-19 (Companies have witnessed a higher logistics costs), decline in gross CMP Companies Reco. PT (Rs) (Rs) margins for select players have exerted pressure on the operating margins. During Q4FY2020, lower tax rates and higher other income reported by Aurobindo 776 Hold 840 select players led to a strong double-digit growth in the universe’s earnings. Cadila 362 Hold 380 Amongst the players, Divis laboratories and Laurus Labs reported a lower tax rate while Dr Reddy’s reported a tax write back. Lupin’s other income Cipla 636 Buy 650 almost trebled for the quarter. Consequently, Sharekhan Universe’s PAT rose Divis 2,184 Buy 2,700 by a strong 12.7% y-o-y for the quarter, ahead of the estimated growth of 8%. Ipca Labs 1,643 Buy 1,750 Outlook Lupin 871 Hold 940 The topline for Sharekhan’s pharma universe grew by a healthy 8.2% y-o-y, while adjusted PAT was up 12.7% y-o-y for Q4FY2020. Management Sun Pharma 479 Hold 510 commentaries suggest that the performance in Q1FY21 is likely to be weak Torrent Pharma 2,335 Hold 2,780 given the lockdown through the months of April and May. Though most of UR - PT Under review the companies had resumed operations, the ramp up was slower. A near normal operations were reported towards the end of May 2020, pointing at sub optimal utilizations for larger part of Q1FY21. However this is likely to be short term phenomenon. Further the search for an alternative source for procurement of key raw materials / bulk drugs by the global companies is likely benefit Indian companies. The Government of India has also announced certain incentives / measures to promote bulk drugs manufacturing in India. Price chart Collectively these would support growth, albeit over the medium to long term. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the USFDA has held back all its inspections. 140 This implies that approvals for plants / units under OAI/WL status could be 110 delayed. Considering the cost-conscious nature of various export markets 80 amidst the economic impact of COVID-19, we believe companies with wider portfolio and integrated manufacturing will be the key beneficiaries in the light 50 of better earnings visibility as compared to others. 19 20 19 20 - - - - Jul Jul Nov Mar Valuation Nifty 50 Nifty Pharma Maintain Neutral stance: Over the past one year, the Nifty Pharma Index has remarkably outperformed the benchmark Nifty index. The Pharma index is up 25.7% y-o-y while benchmark Nifty has corrected by 10% over the past one year. The pharma index growth is more pronounced since March 2020, wherein it has risen by an impressive 53%. The outperformance can be attributable to the defensive nature of the industry. Pharmaceutical companies have emerged strongly amidst the COVID-19 crisis as they offer better earnings visibility. Consequently, the multiples across the sector have been rerated. Although valuation of most pharma companies seems reasonable, the risk of regulatory overhang would stay and could result in a likely stress in the U.S. business. Hence, we maintain our Neutral stance on the sector. However, in the pharmaceutical sector, we like the API space and domestic focused MNC companies. We have a constructive view on this space. Key risks: 1. Any adverse regulatory changes/currency volatility will weigh on the sector, thereby delaying chances of revival; 2. Any prolonged disruption due to covid related issues. Leaders in Q4FY2020: Laurus Labs, Aurobindo, Torrent Pharmaceuticals Laggards in Q4FY2020: Biocon, Granules Our Preferred picks: Divis Laboratories, Laurus Labs, Granules, Sanofi India, Abbott India July 07, 2020 17 Sector Update Q4FY2020 result snapshot Rs cr Net sales OPM (%) BPS BPS Adjusted PAT Companies Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY % QoQ% Q4FY20 Q4FY19 (YoY) (QoQ) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY % QoQ% Active coverage Aurobindo 6158.4 5292.2 16.4 4.5 21.8 20.0 176.3 130.5 882.2 624.8 41.2 24.3 Cadila 3752.1 3732.8 0.5 3.1 21.1 21.7 -63.4 203.3 444.4 470.5 -5.5 24.7 Cipla 4376.2 4404.0 -0.6 0.1 14.5 21.8 -734.6 -287.3 246.0 520.2 -52.7 -29.9 Divis 1389.7 1267.1 9.7 -0.5 32.0 33.4 -146.7 -339.2 331.2 299.4 10.6 -2.9 IPCA 1073.8 879.6 22.1 -11.5 15.7 18.7 -302.2 -687.4 85.4 97.0 -12.0 -57.3 Lupin 3845.7 3886.6 -1.1 2.0 13.7 20.0 -639.0 227.6 306.5 249.6 22.8 -152.9 Sun Pharma 8184.9 7163.9 14.3 0.4 18.4 14.9 346.9 -318.9 802.6 690.3 16.3 -3.5 Torrent Pharma 1946.0 1856.0 4.8 -1.0 28.2 25.5 267.5 69.3 314.0 205.0 53.2 25.1 Total - A 30726.9 28482.3 7.9 1.1 19.4 20.2 -76.7 -85.6 3412.3 3156.8 8.1 38.6 Soft coverage Biocon 1581.0 1528.8 3.4 -9.6 20.2 26.4 -620.9 -530.6 123.4 213.7 -42.3 -39.2 Dr Reddy's Lab 4448.9 4029.6 10.4 1.2 21.4 20.3 102.9 -210.3 770.6 439.7 75.3 -238.6 Granules 599.9 613.3 -2.2 -14.8 17.0 15.9 110.8 -615.3 34.7 64.0 -45.7 -63.8 Laurus Labs 839.1 635.2 32.1 15.0 22.8 17.6 523.5 255.4 109.6 43.1 154.3 50.3 Abbott India 961.3 906.3 6.1 -10.9 14.4 16.9 -247.4 -783.2 111.0 113.2 -1.9 -40.5 Sanofi India 784.5 717.3 9.4 -5.1 22.5 21.3 119.4 95.8 85.5 92.1 -7.2 -12.1 Total - B 9214.7 8430.5 9.3 -2.8 20.4 20.6 -23.4 -288.2 1234.9 965.8 27.9 1134.4 Grand Total 39941.6 36912.8 8.2 0.1 19.6 20.3 -64.3 -134.4 4647.2 4122.6 12.7 81.4 (A+B) Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Valuations Reco/ EPS (Rs) P/E (X) PT (Rs.) Companies CMP (Rs) View FY20 FY21E FY22E FY20 FY21E FY22E Active Coverage Aurobindo 776.0 Hold 49.7 52.6 55.9 15.6 14.8 13.9 840 Cadila 362.0 Hold 14.8 16.3 19.2 24.5 22.2 18.9 380 Cipla 636.0 Buy 19.2 24.0 31.4 33.1 26.5 20.3 650 Divis 2184.0 Buy 48.8 62.8 79.3 44.8 34.8 27.5 2700 Ipca Labs 1643.0 Buy 47.8 64.8 81.7 34.3 25.3 20.1 1750 Lupin 871.0 Hold 7.8 29.2 36.7 111.9 29.9 23.8 940 Sun Pharma 479.0 Hold 16.8 21.2 25.8 28.5 22.6 18.6 510 Torrent Pharma 2335.0 Hold 60.3 73.5 95.1 38.7 31.8 24.6 2780 Soft Coverage Biocon 400.0 Positive 5.7 9.2 13.2 70.5 43.4 30.4 Granules 207.0 Positive 13.0 14.9 19.2 15.9 13.9 10.8 Laurus Labs 549.0 Positive 24.0 28.7 36.5 22.9 19.1 15.0 Sanofi India 7547.0 Positive 205.9 227.8 265.0 36.7 33.1 28.5 Abbott India 15800.0 Positive 279.0 320.5 420.7 56.6 49.3 37.6 Source: Company, Sharekhan Research July 07, 2020 18 Sector Update Revision in earnings estimate Change in Current Previous Price Company Reason Estimates Reco Reco Target Cement Active Coverage Stocks Aurobindo Downwards Continued regulatory concerns could impact the Hold Hold 840 performance of the company going ahead as a substantial number of fillings are from plants under USFDA inspection and new approvals from these plants are held back. Timely resolution to the regulatory issues is critical for earnings growth and will be an overhang on the stock until fully resolved Cadila Upwards The US business is well placed to grow backed by Hold Hold 380 relatively stabilizing price erosion and new product launches. The India business in the near term seems to be reflecting the impact of COVID-19, though the consumer wellness business is expected to grow in double digits.
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