Special Issue INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES AND February 2016 CULTURAL STUDIES ISSN 2356-5926

An Applied SWOT Model for Analyzing Role-Taking of Converted Villages to Towns in Urban Network Behzad ENTEZARI1, Mostafa TALESHI2, Mahdi MUSAKAZEMI3 1 Ph.D. Student in Geography and Rural Planning, PNU. Tehran (Responsible Author) 1 Associated Prof. of Geography, PNU, Tehran 1 Associated Prof. of Geography, PNU, Tehran (The case of 12 villages in East / – 2001-2011)

Abstract One of the most important features of urbanization in IRAN, like other third world countries, has been converting rural points to new city centers. These effects impact on the number of cities and urban networks of the different regions. So it is necessary to provide new development plans for these new rurban settlements. However, as the usual, after converting them to cities, especially in macro regional plans, they are placed in the same group as service points for their rural jurisdictions. As a result, there is a need to introduce some methods and models for separating these small settlements to be able to offer different strategies for their development and role- taking in the region’s urban network. For this purpose, using SWOT analysis, a research has been done in 12 converted former villages to city centers during 2001-2011 in East Azerbaijan, Iran. The results show that with regard to structural-functional features of each settlement, it would be possible to place them in different groups and offer different strategies for each group. The model can be easily applied to small towns and rural centers almost in all and especially in the third world countries. Keywords: Converted villages to city centers, urban networks, SWOT analysis, in Iran.

1 Ph.D. Student in Geography and Rural Planning, PNU. Tehran (Responsible Author) 2 Associated Prof. of Geography, PNU, Tehran 3 Associated Prof. of Geography, PNU, Tehran http://www.ijhcs.com/index.php/ijhcs/index Page 1953

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Literature During the last 50 years, one of the most important effects of acceleration of urbanization on spatial structure of the population in Iran has been increasing the number of cities through changing rural points to urban centers (ZiaTavana,2007: 1). Despite substantial differences in the forms and dynamics of urbanization in different parts of the country, the share of urban population is increasing annually due to changing villages to towns, although increasing of cities’ population themselves has a role in this process. Converting villages to towns is realized by legal rights and approves in parliament and with creating political and administrative institutions in these newly created towns which results in structural and functional changes in them (Rahnamayi and ShahHoseyni,2003:29) Locating in the center of commercial as well as socio-economical exchanges parallel with increasing number of population can change a village to a city status (Rahmani and Parishan,2009:102). Therefore regardless of those settlements which have been originally cities, annually there is an increasing number of villages converting to towns after a transitional period and legal approving (Goli,2004:3). One of the most important problems in studying converted villages to towns (CVTs) specially in macro regional plans is that they are categorized in one group say “cities with less than 25000 population with a service role for their hinterlands”; while these settlements have different features, potentials and obstacles which make a need for establishing certain models and methods for separating them and adopting different policies and strategies for their development and role accepting in a large scale urban network of the province and even the whole country. Study area and methodology In the present study SWOT analysis is used to analyze the structural - functional features of CVTs in reorganizing East Azerbaijan province’s urban networks. Using SWOT analysis is due to this fact that any settlement has after all some internal as well as external positive possibilities and negative obstacles which can be very different from other settlements and SWOT analysis is one of the simplest methods for scoring small scale settlements which can be done by any local authorities specially in developing countries. SWOT is a qualitative prospective, as it describes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and it is used for the identification of the proper strategies for the regional development (Buta, 2007:241). On this basis analyzing strategies can be defined and choosing the best positive strategy for each settlement can be selected for future actions and then reorganizing of urban networks would be possible in macro level for dealing with transforming regions. Of course it will be a two sided approach: by analyzing present perspective it is possible to give special roles to settlements and by defining roles it will be possible to design the future perspective. SWOT analysis is created based on two series of positive and negative variables and in this case the

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study surveys structural-functional strengths and opportunities as well as weaknesses and threats of CVTs. East Azerbaijan Province is one of the 31 . With a population more than 3.7 million people in 2011, it is located in Iranian Azerbaijan, bordering with Armenia, Republic of Azerbaijan and three Turkish internal provinces (map 1). Its Capital city is with almost 2 million inhabitants. During (2001-2011) period 12 villages with a population altogether more than 35000 have converted to cities in this province.

Map 1: East Azerbaijan Province in IRAN Using Cochran formula 96 questioners have been applied as the table 1 below: Table 1: The number of samples for each converted village to town (CVT) Settlement’s Population Share Number of Name (2011) (of total Samples Population) Tark 2406 1.14 7 Khodaju 1584 4.5 3 9832 27.94 27 Aghkand 1733 4.93 5 Khumarlu 1659 4.73 5 Duzduzan 3815 10.84 10 Siyahrud 1553 4.41 4 Kharvana 1373 3.90 4 Kuzekonan 3274 9.31 9 AbishAhmad 2318 6.59 6 Bunab-i- 4371 12.42 12

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Marand Nazarkahrizi 1266 3.6 3 Total 35184 100 96 Source: Authors based on Official Statics of 2011 Selecting indicators of VCTs for analyzing urban networks is not a simple engagement and can be done carefully only after passing years and experiencing some empirical cycles. Moreover, any indicator can have different weight in different regions which make need to calibration which is out of scope of this research. In this early study, 100 different indicators are intended to test the model and the proposed method. These indicators have been within the ten groups as follows: Table 2: components and indicators SWOT analysis in this study N Typ Dime N Indicators o e nsions o 1 Settlement’s Population Population Growth Rate (2006- 2 2011) 3 Tourism Potentials Specialization in a Special Settle 4 Product ment’ Approximate Number of s 5 Investors Inter Potent 1 Existence of Suitable nal ial for 6 Structures Devel Settlement’s Capacities for opme 7 Growth and Development nt Existence of Different Banks 8 Branches 9 Number of Industrial Plants 1 Amount of Exports from the 0 Settlement 1 Age of Municipality 1 Coope Ability of Independent Action 1 ration among Authorities and 2 Inter Level Managers 2 nal in the 1 Cooperation between People Settle 3 and Public Offices ment 1 Cooperation between People 4 and Municipality 1 Cooperation between City

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5 Council Members and the Mayor 1 The Settlement’s Authorities 6 Believe in Development 1 Telephone and Communication Infrast 7 Status ructur 1 Gas Status as a Base for Inter es for 8 Industries 3 nal Devel 1 Electricity Status for opme 9 Stablishing New Industries nt 2 Water Status for Industries 0 2 Transportation Status 1 Differ 2 Tourism Status ent 2 Inter Sector 2 4 Education Status nal s 3 Status 2 Health and Sanitary Status 4 2 Commerce Status 5 2 Existence of Multi-Blur 6 2 General Status of People 7 Culture 2 General Status of People 8 Income 2 Obeying Environmental Laws Institu 9 tional 3 Obey of Civil Laws and Obsta 0 Regulations Inter 5 cles in 3 nal General Level of Education Urban 1 Netw 3 Public Confidence to Tabriz ork 2 (Capital of The Province) 3 Public Confidence to Tehran 3 (Capital of the Country) 3 Existence of Different Political 4 Tendencies 3 Public Information Status 5 (Specially about Opportunities) 3 Private Sector’s Actors

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6 Response to Opportunities 3 Religious Fanaticism 7 3 Women Participation in the 8 Society 3 Linguistic and Ethnical 9 Prejudices 4 Low Number of Inhabitants as 0 an Obstacle for Development Low Level of Education and 4 Specialization as Obstacles for 1 Development 4 Rate of Migration of Educated 2 and Specialized Persons 4 Lack of Public Confidence to 3 development 4 Number of Villages and Towns 4 in Hinterland 4 Closeness to Tehran 5 4 Closeness to Province’s 6 Capital (Tabriz) 4 Closeness to the County’s Locati 7 Center onal Exte 4 6 Oppor Access to main Roads rnal 8 tunitie 4 s Strategic Location 9 5 Closeness to Special Land 0 Uses 5 Closeness to Different Mines 1 5 Locating in or Closeness to 2 Commercial Free Zones 5 Locating in or Closeness to 3 National Projects 5 Locating in or Closeness to Locati 4 Touristic Zones Exte onal 7 5 rnal Threat Closeness to Borders 5 s 5 Locating in Preserved Zones 6 5 Locating in Military Zones

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7 5 Locating in Prohibited Zones 8 5 Meritocracy in Selecting Local 9 Authorities Cooperation between the 6 Settlement and Province 0 Offices 6 Lack of Confidence of Local Exter 1 People to Central People nal 6 Amounts of Credits Allocated Exte Institu 8 2 from Center to the Settlement rnal tional 6 Prohibited Regulations of the Obsta 3 Country for Development cles 6 Centralization in Province 4 6 Commercial Relations with 5 Neighborhood Countries 6 Relation and Cooperation with 6 adjacent Cities 6 Gas Transitional Pipe Line to 7 East of the Province 6 Etilen Line in Hashtrud 8 6 Julfa-Noduz-Armenia Railroad 9 7 Tabriz-Bazargan-Turkey Oppor 0 Railroad tunitie 7 Tabriz-Bazargan Freeway s on 1 Future 7 -Sarab-Ardabil Exte 9 Progr 2 Highway rnal ams 7 -Julfa Highway of the 3 Provi 7 Tabriz-- nce 4 Highway 7 Hashtrud-Maragha Freeway 5 7 Julfa-Aslanduz Mainroad 6 7 Julfa-Bazargan Mainroad 7 7 Bostanabad-Sarab Railroad

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8 7 Develop and set up of Maragha 9 Airport 8 Hajilar Dam 0 8 Completion of Khudaafarin 1 Dam Water Supplying to North and 8 Eastern North of Urumuyeh 2 Lake 8 Completion and Utilization of 3 Provinces Dams Extension of Free Zone 8 Activation to Mughan and 4 Bazargan Establishing Investment Town 8 with Azerbaijan Republic in 5 Khudaafarin 8 Establishing Investment Town 6 with Armenia in Varzeqan 8 Establishing Cargo and Aras 7 Airport Free Zone 8 Special Economic Zone of 8 Sarab 8 Special Economic Zone of 9 Bostanabad 9 Special Economic Zone of 0 Mianeh 9 -Maragha Electrical 1 Power Plant 9 Combined Cycle Power Plant 2 of Maragha Establishing Common 9 Investment Town with 3 Armenia 9 Construction of Boarder 4 Railroad 9 Connection of Iran Railroad to 5 Baku-Tbilisi 9 Extension of Transitional Road 6 of Iran-Azerbaijan-Turkey 9 Copper Concentrate Production 7 Plant

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9 Tabriz-Espiran-Noduz Higway 8 9 Hashtrud Private 9 Petrochemical Plant 1 0 Hashtrud Private Refinery 0

Measurement of Indices For different nature of selected indices, their scoring has been done in different following methods: 1. Some of the indicators have been offered in the form of 10-options questions to the settlements’ authorities which score of each item for any settlement has been determined after scoring by them and statistical methods. 2. In the same questioner some other questions had values “strong agreement- agreement- so so – disagreement- strong disagreement” for the settlements’ authorities which then thier choices modified to a number between 0 to 10. 3. Some other indicators such as “proximity to the main road” have been scored through GIS and geographical maps. Later their scores also have been modified in a 0-10 system. 4. Some statistical methods have been applied to scores after scoring to all 12 settlements in 100 items (a total of 1200 items. 5. Then, for comparing 12 settlements with each other, the scores again modified with the mean score of any item and a new positive or negative score applied to each item. Positive scores specified S and O when negative scores showed W and T. 6. Then total scores of any settlement in each item have been calculated. 7. Then each settlement scores for any items of S-W-O-T have been calculated. Research Findings Using above mention methods and with SWOT model it is possible for surveying each settlement alone or with each other and these settlements which have been categorized in one large group now can be separated and located in different groups with possibility of offering different strategies for any single group emphasizing strengthening of strengths (S) and Opportunities (O) or limiting weaknesses (W) and treats (T) to play a suitable role in the province’s urban network. In this research 5 strategy are used: 1 . Strategy No 1: Strengthening of the Positive Forces This strategy is based on the strengthening positive forces in two internal and external dimensions of any settlement. Under this strategy it is expected the negative points be alleviated

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and gradually eliminated by strength points. So this strategy is focused on maximizing positive forces: [S and/or O ➡ max] 2. Strategy No 2: Reducing the Negative Forces This strategy would be applied when internal weaknesses and external treats are in their maximum amounts. So the settlement has to work on reduction of its weaknesses and at the same time on decreasing effects of external treats: [W and/or T ➡ min] 3. Strategy No 3: Concentrating on Internal Forces This strategy will be applied when total of internal forces is more than total of external forces or is in a maximum amount. So the settlement has to work more on strengthening of its internal forces as well as decreasing its external forces: [(S+O)/(O+T) ➡ max] 4. Strategy No 4: Overcoming Internal Weaknesses While internal Strengths and External Opportunities for a settlement are in their maximum amounts in relation to its weaknesses, the settlement can work on reinforcing its positive forces while reducing her weaknesses: [(S+O)/W ➡ max] 5. Strategy No 5: Overcoming External Treats This strategy is emphasizing on effects of strengths and opportunities on negative treats. In this strategy external treats are intense and their extension and risks are more than internal weaknesses. Therefore, there will be a need to utilize (S)s and (O)s for limiting effects of external (T)s: [(S+O)/T ➡ max] It is clear that other strategies could be designed say combining strategies 4 and 5 and making strategy 6 as [(S+O) / (W+T) ➡ max] and so on, but it seems that 5 strategies will be sufficient for purpose of this study and due to the small number of cases studied (12 settlements). Results Table 3 shows the results of scores for any 12 settlements which gives a possibility for analyzing and decision making about using any settlement from each of the mentioned strategies. Table 3: Modified Scores for each of CVTs Scores for Strategies Settlement Different Scores 1 2 3 4 5 s S+ O+ S+ W+ (S+W)/(O+ (S+O)/ (S+O)/ (NCTs) S W O T W T O T T) W T Tark 57. 22. 31. 4.6 80 36 88. 27.4 2.22 3.89 19.26

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2 8 4 6 63. 12. 27. 24. 52. 90. Khodaju 75.7 37.5 1.44 7.19 3.64 1 6 5 9 4 6 29. 33. 40. 63. Yamchi 61 6.3 90.8 67.3 2.26 1.04 10.11 8 9 2 7 15. 51. 16. 39. 38. Aghkand 23 66.6 68.2 1.68 0.74 2.28 1 5 7 7 1 31. 34. 64. 17. 81. 95. Khumarlu 65.5 51.5 0.81 2.77 5.57 1 4 2 1 3 3 21. 32. 19. 52. 54. Duzduzan 29 50.4 48.5 0.96 1.87 2.78 4 9 5 4 3 17. 38. 38. 93. 72. Siyahrud 55 56.7 77.5 0.61 1.87 1.89 8 9 6 6 8 11. 56. 26. 24. 50. 37. Kharvana 67.6 80.3 1.35 0.67 1.56 4 2 1 1 2 5 52. 19. 20. 39. 71. Kuzekonan 17 69.8 37.1 1.78 4.23 3.58 8 1 1 2 9 Abishahma 29. 40. 24. 51. 53. 27 69.6 67.1 1.36 1.34 1.99 d 5 1 3 3 8 57. 27. 16. 14. 30. 73. 84.3 41.4 2.76 2.70 5.17 1 2 3 2 5 4 Nazarkahri 26. 36. 14. 50. 63. 26 52.6 40.3 1.03 2.43 4.42 zi 6 6 3 9 2

Now it is possible to analyze and discuss on allocating each of strategies for any settlement and then re-categorizing them Strategy No 1: As mentioned above, this strategy will be used when (Ss) and (Os) are in their max, which itself can be divided to 3 groups:

a. Maximizing Strengths (S ➡ max) : In this case “Khodaju” is in the first rank with a score of 88.3, therefore it is better to this settlement to emphasize on its internal strengths.

b. Maximizing Opportunities (O➡ max) In this case “Khumarlu” with 64.2 points is in the first rank and therefore it is better to it to emphasize on its available opportunities in near future.

c. Maximizing Total of Strengths and Opportunities (S+O ➡ max)

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After “Khodaju” scores of “Tark” (86.3) is higher than others. Therefore, this settlement has to focus on its positive forces. In summary, 3 settlements of (“Khodaju”, “Khumarlu” and “Tark”) in spite of their differences can use the first strategy. Strategy No 2: In this strategy, opposite with the first strategy, the importance of negative and preventing forces (W-T) are more than positive powers (S-O), therefore it is for these types of settlements authorities to work on solving their weaknesses and search for ways to confront with external treats. Like the first strategy, this strategy can be divided into three components:

a. When weaknesses are in max (W➡ max) “Kharvana” is a converted village which suffers from its internal weaknesses (Score :-55.5), therefore first of all it has to have plans for reducing these weaknesses.

b. When treats are in max (T➡ max) “Siyahrud” as a border town has the higher negative score of treats (-38.6). Some actions on active and inactive defense are needed for this settlement.

c. When total of weaknesses and treats are in max (W+T➡ max) After 2 above mentioned settlements, “Aghkand” with a total of (-68.2) and “Abishahmad” (- 66.9) can utilize of this strategy that means to focus on internal as well as external negative items. So in summary strategy No 2 is the best one for “Kharvana”, “Siyahrud”, “Aghkand” and “Abishahmad” Strategy No 3:

(S+W)/(O+T) ➡ max Settlements “Bonab”(2.68), and “Yamchi” both in “Marand” county, have strongest internal forces in relation to external forces. They are located in an isolated geographical location (at least comparing with other 10 cases), therefore face with less opportunities and treats. So the best strategy for these two settlements is third strategy which focuses on internal forces. Strategy No 4:

(S+O)/W ➡ max Settlements “Duzduzan” and “Nazarkahrizi” which have more strengths and opportunities from one side also their weaknesses are more than their treats can use this strategy.

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Strategy No 5:

(S+O)/T➡max The best strategy for “Kuzekonan” in which treats are more than weaknesses (T>W) is strategy number 5. So in summary the optimum strategy for each settlement is as table 4 below Table 4: Optimum Strategy for any CVT Strategies Settlements Tark, Khodaju, 1 Khumlu, Aghkand, Siyahrud, 2 Abishahmad 3 Yamchi, Bonab 4 Duzduzan, Nzarkahrizi 5 Kuzekonan

Conclusion It is seen that the model is working and could separate those settlements which have been located in the same group in macro plans and offer different decisions for each of them. This model can be easily applied to rural centers as well as small towns but applying it to larger cites will have complicated processes. One of advantages of this model is this fact which it is not only on the base of statistical and geographical data, but also on asking the settlements’ people and authorities viewpoints. Choosing indices and indicators and type of scoring can be modified in some empirical cycles and calibrate for different regions, but as a whole it seems that these models could be useful in local micro levels.

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References

BUTA, R. (2007):” The SWOT Analysis in the Geographical Research, with Applicability in the Study of the Human Settlements from Moldova Valley (Baia-Draguseni Sector)”; Present Environment and Sustainable Development, 1:239-248.

Goli, A. (2004): Analyzing Process of Transition from Village to City and Designing a Model for Detecting Transitional Villages in Iran (in Farsi); Tarbiyat Modarres University’ Tehran. RAHMAN FAZLI, A. and PARISHAN, M. (2009):“Structural-Functional Changes after Converting Rural Points to Cities” ; (in Farsi); Journal of Applied Researches of Geographical Sciences; 9-9-12 (101-128).

RAHNAMYI, M and SHAHHOSEYNI, P. (2003): Process of Urban Province in Iran; (in Farsi); Samt Publishers, Tehran.

ZIYATAVANA, M. and AMIRENTEKHABI, Sh. (2006): “Process of Converting Village to City and its Results in Talesh County”; (in Farsi); Journal of Geography and Development, 10(107-128).

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