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US Faced with 'Good Problem' As Gas Glut Stabilizes Prices Calpine

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US Faced with 'Good Problem' As Gas Glut Stabilizes Prices Calpine Thursday, March 24, 2011 US faced with ‘good problem’ Merger Stories Deal Approval as gas glut stabilizes prices AEShttp://www.snl.com/interactivex/snapshot.aspx?id=4055465 Corp. EL AES Close: $12.46 -0.01 (-0.1%) Vol: 5,063,626 (78% of Avg.) by Petermailto:[email protected] Marrin Semprahttp://www.snl.com/interactivex/snapshot.aspx?id=4057062 Energy DE SRE The growth of shale gas production has stabilized natural gas prices Close: $52.04 -0.34 (-0.6%) Vol: 3,116,520 (179% of Avg.) and provides an opportunity to expand the efficient use of gas in Southernhttp://www.snl.com/interactivex/snapshot.aspx?id=4057146 California Gas Co. NG the U.S., a national producer-consumer task force said in a March FERC on March 18 approved AES Corp. subsidiary AES California 22 report. Management Co.’s Feb. 18 request to sell its ownership interest in The group, led by the Bipartisan Policy Center and the American AES Placerita to Clean Energy Systems Inc. Clean Skies Foundation, convened a yearlong review to produce the 70-page report, finding that governments need to “encourage the continued on page 3 development of domestic natural gas resources, subject to appro- priate environmental safeguards.” Comprising gas producers, distributors, consumer groups, large- teractivex/MyInteractive.aspx industrial users, independent experts, state regulatory commis- http://www.snl.com/inNow Featured on sions and environmental groups, the diverse task force noted that increased gas use can reduce air emissions, enhance energy security Wary of potential fines, PG&E requests and “improve the prospects of U.S.-based energy-intensive manu- more time to complete pipe inspections facturers.” “While we wish we could have completed all this work by now, In addition, the report said, gas is abundant. the fact is that the magnitude of the task is enormous,” the util- continued on page 2 ity said in a supplemental filing. http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?Id=12525368 Wednesday's Energy Stocks Hawaii bill to allow developers cost recovery for interisland cables draws fire Calpine shares up after Hawaii state legislators are considering a bill that would allow the developers of high-voltage interisland transmission lines to analyst raises price target recover the costs of their investments from electricity ratepayers. http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?Id=12519615 by Amymailto:[email protected] Poszywak Broader markets inched up Wednesday, March 23. The Dow Jones Task force: Dodd-Frank could impede Industrial Average gained 0.56% to 12,086.02, and the S&P 500 risk management, hedging added 0.29% to end at 1,297.54. The SNL Energy Index showed a The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act slight gain, finishing up 0.07% to 245.34. The SNL Coal Index rose “has the potential to significantly alter the nature of — and cost of 2.43% to 616.64, and the SNL Gas Utility Index was down 0.51% to — price risk mitigation for gas buyers and sellers alike,” according 340.02. to a task force report released by the Bipartisan Policy Center and Calpine Corp. shares finished up 1.17% to $15.53 in light trading the American Clean Skies Foundation. after Jefferies & Co. Inc. raised its price target on the company to http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?Id=12525575 $18 from $17 in a March 23 research report. Jefferies analyst Paul Fremont said Calpine is in a good position to benefit from the fallout M&A Replay: Progress, Duke file merger of tougher rules from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on proxy; Oglethorpe details financing coal-fired power plants, adding that the company will be the first merchant generator to discuss the impact of the proposed national for KGen plant acquisition standards. SNL Energy power M&A updates, announcements, completions and progress for March 16-22. “Not only is Calpine positioned to benefit from higher prices which may come about as a result of the expected decrease in the supply http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/article.aspx?Id=12522284 of coal power plants following the adoption of tougher EPA rules, it If you experience difficulties or have any questions, please continued on page 2 e-mail us at [email protected] or call us at 888-275-2822. One SNL Plaza, P.O. Box 2124, Charlottesville, VA 22902 Phone: +1.434.977.1600 News fax: +1.434.293.0407 snl.com SNLEnergy © 2011, SNL Financial LC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Use limited and subject to SNL license. Thursday, March 24, 2011 Page 2 Gas glut continued “From shale gas discoveries onshore to new gas fields offshore, On the physical level, policymakers also need to recognize the our nation has significant supplies of clean energy that will power importance of gas pipeline and storage infrastructure and existing our economy affordably for generations to come — an anticipated import infrastructure in promoting stable gas prices. 100 years,” Dave McCurdy, president and CEO of the American Gas “Policies to support the development of a fully functional and safe Association, said in a statement. gas transmission and storage infrastructure both now and in the “We have a good problem,” task force co-chair Norm Szydlowski said future, including streamlined regulatory approval and options for in a separate statement. market-based rates for new storage in the United States, should be Szydlowski, who also serves as president and CEO of SemGroup continued,” the group said. Corp., said the recent jump in supply provides “an opportunity that Jay Copan, executive director at the American Gas Foundation, is as much unparalleled as it was unexpected.” said his group welcomes the task force recommendation, “which “Fundamental changes that have taken shape in the domestic includes the recognition that long-term contracts and hedging pro- supply and demand balance for natural gas, including an unprec- grams are valuable tools to manage natural gas price risk.” edented level of available storage and import capacity, should Uncertainty remains allow markets to function more efficiently and fluidly in the future,” While the development of shale gas offers significant new gas sup- Szydlowski said. plies at moderate prices, large uncertainties remain regarding the According to Paula Gant, senior vice president for policy and plan- future development of these resources. These uncertainties include ning at the AGA, “With U.S. natural gas now one-fourth the price of the accuracy of current estimates, future costs of drilling, and even oil on an energy equivalent basis, it is further welcome news to con- the availability of pipeline and processing infrastructure in proxim- sumers that, with the right policies, U.S. natural gas appears poised ity to the resource base. to enter into an era of greater price stability.” But “by no means least important,” uncertainty also continues to Regulators, industry need to think long term hinge on the environmental risks associated with shale gas devel- With natural gas prices stabilizing, state public utility regulators and opment. the industry need to consider making greater use of longer-term “While more than 20,000 shale wells have been drilled in the past 10 supply contracts, the report said. years with little adverse environmental impact, environmental risks “Rules that unnecessarily restrict the use of or raise the cost of long- and concerns are likely to become increasingly important if and term contract and hedging tools for managing supply risk should be when production activities expand substantially beyond current avoided,” the task force said. levels,” the report found. According to the report, the National Association of Regulatory “These risks and concerns will have to be carefully monitored and Utility Commissioners should consider the merits of diversified gas managed to avoid adverse impacts and to ensure that communities portfolios, including hedging and longer-term natural gas contracts, remain willing to accept shale gas development based on confi- building on its 2005 resolution. dence that appropriate safeguards for the protection of the environ- ment and the public are in place.” Specifically, the report found, NARUC should examine whether the focus on shorter-term contracts, first-of-the-month pricing provi- According to Ralph Cavanagh, senior attorney and co-director of sions and spot market prices supports the goal of enhancing price the energy program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, “If stability for end users; the pros and cons of long-term contracts for the industry can meet high standards of environmental perfor- regulators, regulated utilities and their customers; the regulatory mance for extracting and delivering the fuel, we are looking here at risk associated with long-term contracts and the issues of utility very good news for America’s economy and industrial competitive- commission pre-approval of long-term contracts and the look-back ness, the environment, and our nation’s energy security.” risk for regulated entities; and state practices that limit or encour- COMPANY REFERENCED IN THIS ARTICLE: age long-term contracting. SemGrouphttp://www.snl.com/interactivex/snapshot.aspx?id=4135511 Corp. In addition, as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission http://www.snl.com/interactivex/doc.aspx?CDID=A-12525550-12087Full filing implements financial reform legislation, the agency should preserve the ability of natural gas end users to cost-effectively use the deriva- http://www.snl.com/interactivex/doc.aspx?CDID=A-12526948-12075Full filing tives markets to manage their commercial risk exposure. The CFTC http://www.snl.com/interactivex/doc.aspx?CDID=A-12526959-11818Full filing also should consider how any new rulemaking will affect liquidity in the natural gas derivatives market, as reduced liquidity could have http://www.snl.com/interactivex/feedback.aspx?Id=12526995&Action=estory E-mail this story.
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