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Integrated Resource Plan 2021‐2040

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Integrated Resource Plan 2021‐2040 Integrated Resource Plan 2021‐2040 In accordance with the amendment of The South Carolina Code of Laws, 1976, section 58‐37‐40 to include electric cooperatives, Central Electric Power Cooperative Inc. (Central) is submitting its Integrated Resource Plan to the South Carolina State Energy Office on behalf of itself and the 20 South Carolina distribution electric cooperatives. The IRP’s development included a planning process that was begun in 2019. Central will complete this process every three years, with a review and update in the off years. Page | 2 Contents 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Central Electric Power Cooperative, Inc. ...................................................................................... 7 1.2 Cooperative Business Model......................................................................................................... 8 1.3 Cooperative Principles .................................................................................................................. 9 1.4 Central’s Member‐Cooperatives ................................................................................................. 10 2 South Carolina Electric Cooperative Service Territories ..................................................................... 12 2.1 Purpose of the Integrated Resource Plan ................................................................................... 15 3 Existing Resources ............................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 Santee Cooper ............................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC ......................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Southeastern Power Administration .......................................................................................... 21 3.4 Renewables – Community Solar, Horry County Schools, Savion QF, Volvo Solar....................... 22 3.5 Diesel Generators........................................................................................................................ 24 3.6 Central’s Energy Mix ................................................................................................................... 25 4 Demand‐Side Management ................................................................................................................ 27 4.1 Existing DSM Resources .............................................................................................................. 28 4.1.1 Future Projections for Existing Programs ........................................................................... 29 4.2 Incremental DSM Modeling ........................................................................................................ 31 4.2.1 Economic Modeling Framework ......................................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Sensitivities ......................................................................................................................... 33 4.2.3 Overview of New Program Archetypes ............................................................................... 34 4.2.4 Business as Usual Funding Allocation ................................................................................. 38 4.2.5 Business as Usual Results .................................................................................................... 38 4.3 Aggressive DSM Scenario ............................................................................................................ 43 4.3.1 Funding Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 43 4.3.2 Aggressive Scenario Results ................................................................................................ 43 5 Load Forecast ...................................................................................................................................... 49 5.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 50 5.2 Base Load Forecast ..................................................................................................................... 51 5.2.1 Member‐Owner Forecasts .................................................................................................. 53 Page | 3 5.2.2 Central Demand and Energy Forecast ................................................................................ 54 5.2.3 DSM and Energy Efficiency in the Base Forecast ................................................................ 54 5.2.4 Load Duration Curves .......................................................................................................... 55 5.3 Load Forecast Scenarios .............................................................................................................. 56 5.3.1 DSM Penetration Scenarios ................................................................................................ 60 5.3.2 Renewable and Cogeneration Penetration Scenarios ........................................................ 60 6 Resource Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 61 6.1 Southeast Regional Transmission Organization Potential .......................................................... 63 6.2 Reliability Considerations ............................................................................................................ 64 6.2.1 Planning Reserve Margin .................................................................................................... 64 6.2.2 Effective Load Carrying Capability ...................................................................................... 64 6.2.3 Probabilistic Loss of Load .................................................................................................... 64 6.2.4 IRP Reserve Margin ............................................................................................................. 65 6.3 Santee Cooper Balancing Authority ............................................................................................ 66 6.4 Duke Balancing Authority ........................................................................................................... 67 6.5 Central Resource Planning Process ............................................................................................. 68 6.6 Study Inputs and Assumptions .................................................................................................... 69 6.6.1 Technical Assessment of New Generation Resources ........................................................ 69 6.6.2 Thermal Technology ............................................................................................................ 69 6.6.3 Peaking Technology ............................................................................................................ 69 6.6.4 Combined Cycle Technology ............................................................................................... 70 6.6.5 Renewable Technology ....................................................................................................... 71 6.6.6 Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) ................................................................................... 74 6.6.7 Electric Transmission Investments ...................................................................................... 75 6.6.8 Load ..................................................................................................................................... 75 6.6.9 Fuel ...................................................................................................................................... 77 6.6.10 Renewables Integration ...................................................................................................... 78 6.6.11 Demand‐Side Management ................................................................................................ 79 6.6.12 Carbon Policy ...................................................................................................................... 80 6.6.13 Financial Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 80 6.7 Capacity Expansion Modeling ..................................................................................................... 81 Page | 4 6.7.1 Expansion Strategies ........................................................................................................... 82 6.7.2 Expansion Strategies Modeled with Base Input Assumptions ............................................ 83 6.7.3 Scenario Analysis ................................................................................................................. 85 6.7.4 Custom Portfolios ................................................................................................................ 85 6.8 Portfolio Screening ...................................................................................................................... 85 6.9 Production Cost Modeling .........................................................................................................
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