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Morning Research Focus Table of Contents 目录 股 票 研 Research 究 [Table_Title] Equity Research Department Morning Research Focus 11 December 2020 [Table_Summary] Table of Contents 目录 Focus 今 News Focus 新闻焦点 晨 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 焦 Research Infrastructure Sector: S&P Dow Jones to Remove 10 Chinese Companies from Over 48 Indices Starting on 点 21st December Morning 基建行业: 标普道琼斯指数将于 12 月 21 日起将 10 家中资公司剔出逾 48 只指数 PICC Group (01339 HK) PICC P&C (02328 HK):Motor Premiums Continued to Declined 人保集团 (01339 HK) 中国财险 (01339 HK)：车险保费继续下滑 GCL Poly (03800 HK) & GCL New Energy (00451 HK): Disposal of Subsidiaries and Business Update on 证 FBR Granular Silicon 告 券 研 报 保利协鑫能源 (03800 HK)及协鑫新能源 (00451 HK)：出售附属公司以及对硅烷流化床法颗粒硅的业务更新 究 究 报 研 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 告 券 Equity Research Report Company EPS Code Title TP Chg Rating Chg 证 Name Est.Change? 代码 标题 目标价 评级 变动 z 公司名称 盈利预测是否改变 Household Consumption as Key Dali Foods 03799 HK HK$6.30 -- Buy -- Y Growth Driver, Maintain "Buy" 达利食品 03799 HK 家庭消费成为关键增长动力，维持“买入” HK$6.30 -- 买入 -- 是 Expected to Benefit from the IPO of A CICC 03908 HK HK$24.67 ↑ Buy ↑ Y shares, Upgrade to "Buy" 中金公司 03908 HK 预计将受益于 A 股 IPO，上调至“买入” HK$24.67 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是 Automobiles & Sector Report: A Race to Components -- Outperform -- 是 Revolutionize the Auto Industry Sector 汽 车 及 零 部 件 行业报告:颠覆汽车行业的竞赛 -- 跑赢大市 -- 否 行业 Dongfeng A-Share IPO to Boost Valuation, 00489 HK HK$8.96 ↑ Accumulate -- Y Motor Group Maintain "Accumulate" 东风汽车 00489 HK A 股 IPO 有助于提高估值，维持“收集” HK$8.96 ↑ 收集 -- 是 Technologically Ready for L4 ADAS, Nexteer 01316 HK HK$10.20 ↑ Accumulate ↑ Y Upgrade to "Accumulate" 技术层面上 ADAS 已达 L4 级别，上调至 耐世特 01316 HK HK$10.20 ↑ 收集 ↑ 是 “收集” Great Wall Promising Sales Trend, Upgrade to 02333 HK HK$18.18 ↑ Accumulate ↑ Y Motor "Accumulate" 长城汽车 02333 HK 确定的销量趋势，上调至“收集” HK$18.18 ↑ 收集 ↑ 是 See the last page for disclaimer 1 of 13 Morning Research Focus Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 16,000 35,000 33,000 14,000 31,000 29,000 12,000 27,000 25,000 10,000 23,000 21,000 8,000 19,000 17,000 6,000 Dec/19 Mar/20 Jun/20 Sep/20 Dec/20 Dec/19 Mar/20 Jun/20 Sep/20 Dec/20 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Please subscribe GTJAI Research Wechat subscription account and service account. Wechat subscription account ID: 国泰君安国际研究部 Wechat service account ID: 国泰君安国际 策略研究 Please scan the QR code s on the right -hand side. Research Report Database: (1) www.gtjai.com – “Research” – “Focus: Company”/ “Research Highlights” (2) Bloomberg Report Page: RESP GJIR or NH GTJ 欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部微信公众号及服务号。 公众号账号：国泰君安国际研究部 服务号账号：国泰君安国际策略研究 研究报告库：(1) www.gtjai.com – “研究报告” – “公司点评”/“专题研究” (2) Bloomberg 报告页面： RESP GJIR 或 NH GTJ 新闻焦点 [NewsTable_ NewsFocus]Focus News Comments 新闻评论 Analyst: Andy Huang 分析员：黄凯鸿 Last night the European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as markets had expected. The European Central Bank claimed that it would increase the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) by EUR500 billion, extending the term by nine months to the end of March 2022. It would also extend the maturity date of the third Targeted Long-term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) prime rate from June 2021 to June 2022; reinvesting maturity PEPP bonds would extend to at least the end of 2023. ECB said more long-term loans will be added and the window period for minimum interest rates extended. Lately the COVID-19 pandemic has still been spreading in Europe and the US. The latest jobless claims in the US rebounded to the highest level in the past three months, worse than market had expected, and the US financial stimulus plan may be pushed out sooner. Europe and the US maintained a high level of government and corporate debt, and monetary easing is not expected to end any time soon. Given the emergence of COVID-19 vaccines and its imminent widespread launch, which may favor the market risk sentiment, we expect the Hong Kong stock market to maintain an oscillating uptrend in the short term. 昨夜欧央行宣布维持基准利率不变，符合市场预期。欧央行表示，将紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP）规模增加 5,000 亿 欧元，期限延长 9 个月至 2022 年 3 月底。并计划将第三轮定向长期再融资操作（TLTRO）优惠利率到期日由此前的 2021 年 6 月延长至 2022 年 6 月；将重新投资到期的 PEPP 债券至少持续至 2023 年底。欧央行表示将增加更多长期 See the last page for disclaimer 2 of 13 Morning Research Focus 贷款，并延长最低利率的窗口期。近期欧美新冠疫情仍在蔓延。美国最新初请失业金人数反弹并创近 3 个月新高，增 幅超过市场预期，美国财政救助法案或加快推出。欧美政府与企业债务水平较高，预计货币宽松政策短期不会结束。 考虑到新冠疫苗已诞生且即将广泛推出，将提振市场风险偏好，我们预计港股短期仍将波动上升趋势。 Market News 市场新闻 British Prime Minister Johnson stated that the United Kingdom should prepare to leave the EU without a trade agreement, as the negotiation was hardly making progress. 英国首相约翰逊表示，由于谈判不顺，英国应该做好在没有贸易协议的情况下脱离欧盟准备。 U.S. initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 853,000 in the week ended December 5, higher than market expectation of 725,000. 美国 12 月 5 日当周初请失业金人数为 85.3 万人，高于预期的 72.5 万人。 Industry and Company Focus Infrastructure Sector: S&P Dow Jones to Remove 10 Chinese Companies from Over 48 Indices Starting on 21st December Analyst: Gary Wong What happened: S&P Dow Jones stated that it will remove 10 Chinese companies from more than 48 indexes effective on 21st December. At the same time, starting from 1st January, 2021, another 11 Chinese companies will be excluded from the fixed income index. The index company also stated that it will continue to monitor the update of the entity list and further clarify the scope of the administrative order and other related matters. The removed companies include CRRC Corporation (01766 HK), China Communications Construction Company (01800 HK), China National Chemical Engineering (601117 CH), China Nuclear Engineering Construction (601611 CH), China Spacesat Co., Ltd (600118 CH), China State Construction International (03311 HK), China Railway Construction (01186 HK), Sugon Information Industry (603019 CH), Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology (002415 CH) and SMIC (00981 HK). Comments and Views: The removed companies under our coverage include China Communications Construction Company (01800 HK), CRRC (01766 HK), China State Construction International (03311 HK) and China Railway Construction (01186 HK). As we mentioned before, the proportion of related companies in the indexes were very low, even if index investors passively reduce their holdings due to this, the impact on the stock prices of related companies will be minimal. Investment suggestion: From the perspective of the companies under our coverage, we believe that investors will pay more attention to the company's fundamentals and valuation rather than whether it is excluded from the indexes. We believe that the fundamentals of related companies remain sound, and there is very limited room for further declines where the current valuation is close to historical lows. Maintain the "Buy" rating of CRRC Corporation (01766 HK), China State Construction International (03311 HK) and China Railway Construction (01186 HK), and the "Accumulate" rating of China Communications Construction Company (01800 HK). Reiterate the sector’s "Outperform" rating. See the last page for disclaimer 3 of 13 Morning Research Focus [Table_Focus] PICC Group (01339 HK) PICC P&C (02328 HK):Motor Premiums Continued to Declined Analyst: Wiley Huang What happened: PICC Group (01339 HK) announced 1-11M2020 premium income on December 10. PICC P&C’s (02328 HK) premiums increased 1.1% YoY to RMB398,916 mn. PICC Life’s premiums dropped 4.2% YoY to RMB90,384 mn. PICC Health’s premiums grew 46.3% YoY down to RMB30,623 mn. 11M2020(RMB) YOY% 1-11M2020(RMB) YOY% PICC P&C Premiums 28,571 mn (13.8) 398,916 mn 1.1% PICC Life Premiums 4,518 mn 14.4 90,384 mn (4.2) PICC Health Premiums 1,781 mn 25.7 30,623 mn 46.3 Source: the Company. Comments and views: P&C premiums continue to record negative growth in November due to decline in both motor premium and non-motor premiums. Impacted by the comprehensive reform, motor insurance saw 11.7% premiums decline in November. Non-motor premiums continue sluggish performance in November, which dropped 0.8%, despite 29.5% premiums growth in agriculture insurance. Except for significant decline in credit and surety insurance premiums, liabilities premiums also registered 10.5% decrease in November. Going forward, motor premiums decline trend is expected to continued, while non-motor lines might be still weak. Life premiums increased 11.7% in November, supported by 74.3% growth in first-year premiums. Single premiums increase 2.0x in November, whereas first-year regular premiums dropped 25.9%. The increase in single premiums might alleviate pressure in new business growth. However, it will also bring downward pressures for new business value margin. Stepping into December, the focus will be 1Q2021 sales campaign. Considering low base in 1Q2020, we expect life business to record notable growth in 1Q2021. Investment suggestion: For PICC P&C, the comprehensive auto insurance reform will bring negative impacts to premiums growth and underwriting profit expansion. Non-motor premiums growth should continue sluggish performance. For PICC Group, life first-year premiums growth is expected to remain weak due to unfavourable macroeconomic environment. Hence, our investment rating for PICC P&C is "Neutral" with target price of HK$5.80. Our investment rating for PICC Group is "Neutral" with target price of HK$2.46. GCL Poly (03800 HK) & GCL New Energy (00451 HK): Disposal of Subsidiaries and Business Update on FBR Granular Silicon Analyst: Jun Zhu What happened: GCL Group (i.e. GCL Poly Energy and GCL New Energy or "GNE") announced last night that it (as the seller) had entered into the share purchase agreement with Weining Energy (as the buyer) in relation to the disposal of majority stake in 4 operational solar power projects held by the Group in China with an aggregate grid connected capacity of approximately 185 MW at a consideration of RMB291 mn.
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