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Welcome Global Light Vehicle Outlook Briefing from Shanghai 22nd October 2020 AGENDA Session 1: China 13:00 5min Intro and housekeeping Volker KRUEGER LMC Automotive 13:05 15min Macro Economic Outlook Louis KUIJS Oxford Economics 13:20 15min China PV Outlook Alan KANG LMC Automotive 13:35 15min China NEV Outlook Lancy ZHANG LMC Automotive 13:50 10min China CV Outlook John ZENG LMC Automotive 14:00 10min Q & A Session 2: Regional Overview 14:10 15min Customer Satisfaction Jun SU J.D. Power 14:25 10min Asia May ARTHAPAN LMC Automotive 14:35 10min Europe Justin COX LMC Automotive 14:45 10min Americas Jeff SCHUSTER LMC Automotive 15:00 15min Q & A 15:15 10min Global wrap-up Pete KELLY LMC Automotive 15:30 END © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 2 The outlook for China and Asia in a tumultuous world Louis Kuijs, Head of Asia Economics [email protected] Outline of webinar • The post-Covid recovery • Globally • China • APAC • Longer-term outlook for China and Asia • Headwinds to China’s external conditions • Role of US elections • China’s policy response: ‘Dual circulation’ • Outlook Global recovery to be slow; risks skewed to the downside 2 Central bank interest rates lower for longer 3 China’s has recovered but consumption still lags 4 Exports and imports bounce back sharply 5 The PBoC allows the CNY to strengthen further 6 APAC: containment is key to economic recovery Progress towards recovery varies greatly in APAC (I) 8 Progress towards recovery varies greatly in APAC (II) 9 Our baseline has a strong rebound in 2021 With global rates lower for longer, Asian bond yields will remain relatively low too 11 Longer-term outlook China’s external conditions have worsened more than expected • US has ramped up efforts to decouple from China and counter it • Other countries have also taken efforts to decouple, for various reasons (Australia, UK, India) • What about a Biden Presidency? • Less aggressive, more predictable • Tough US stance will remain • Greater chance of ‘common front’ 13 US-China tensions won’t go away 14 ‘Decoupling’ increasingly weighing on LT outlook 15 But dramatic decoupling remains unlikely • Governments of most developed countries want to remain engaged with China, economically • Even amid the escalation of the US-China trade war, many US firms remain keen to expand their China business • FDI, PF flows • Expansion / establishment US financial firms • Amcham survey 16 We don’t expect drastic decoupling 17 Decoupling? 18 Harder external conditions are shaping China’s policy • ‘Dual circulation’: • Boosting domestic demand and domestic growth (both demand and supply), and ensuring the economy is robust against shocks • Continued commitment to reform and opening up • Hukou system and improving the quality of urbanization, the rural land system, and SOEs • Easing restrictions on FDI and PF flows, lowering tariffs 19 Decoupling hurts China’s long-term growth 20 China and APAC to remain fastest growing part of global economy 21 Conclusions • Globally, after the initial post-lockdown bounce, the recovery will be slow and risks are to the downside • China has recovered, but consumption is lagging • APAC prospects are mixed, but we expect a rebound in 2021 • US-China tensions won’t go away and a Biden presidency won’t change the outlook much • But we don’t expect dramatic decoupling and see China and APAC growing relatively solidly in the coming 5-10 years 22 Thank you! Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 150 industrial sectors and 7,000 cities and regions. For more information, please scan the QR code below to follow us on Wechat. Global headquarters Europe, Middle East Americas Asia Pacific Oxford Economics Ltd and Africa Abbey House, 121 St Aldates Oxford New York Singapore Oxford OX1 1HB, UK London Philadelphia Sydney Tel: +44 (0) 1865 268 900 Belfast Boston Melbourne Frankfurt Chicago Hong Kong London Paris Los Angeles Tokyo 4 Millbank, Westminster Milan Toronto London SW1P 3JA, UK Stockholm Mexico City Tel: +44 (0)20 3910 8000 Cape Town Dubai Frankfurt: Marienstr. 15, 60329 Frankfurt Email: am Main, Germany [email protected] Tel: +49 69 96 758 658 Website: www.oxfordeconomics.com New York Further contact details: th 5 Hanover Square (8 floor) www.oxfordeconomics.com/about-us/worldwide-offices New York NY 10004, USA Tel: +1 646 503 3050 Singapore: 6 Battery Road # 38-05, Singapore 049909 Tel: +65 6850 0110 The New Normal Coronavirus Impact on China Car Industry Alan Kang, Senior Market Analyst The Global Light Vehicle Outlook Briefing October 22, 2020 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Outline ▪ COVID-19 Impact to Marco Economy ▪ Passenger Car Market Overview ▪ Market Dynamics: Sales Distribution, Brand Origins and Segments ▪ Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. China Still Under the Risk of a Second COV-19 Wave ▪ China is ahead of the world from a recovery perspective but the risk of second wave of COV-19 is still high ▪ In May, a small scale of outbreak in Jilin province. ▪ In June, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Beijing. Xinjiang th ▪ In July 16 , cases restarted in Xinjiang province. Qingdao ▪ In October 12th, new cases raised in Shandong province. 120 Xinjiang New cases 100 (July-August) Jilin Beijing 80 (May) (June-July) 60 40 Shandong 20 (October) 0 27/06/2020 04/08/2020 09/05/2020 11/05/2020 13/05/2020 15/05/2020 17/05/2020 19/05/2020 21/05/2020 23/05/2020 25/05/2020 09/06/2020 11/06/2020 13/06/2020 15/06/2020 17/06/2020 19/06/2020 21/06/2020 23/06/2020 25/06/2020 29/06/2020 01/07/2020 03/07/2020 05/07/2020 07/07/2020 09/07/2020 11/07/2020 13/07/2020 15/07/2020 17/07/2020 19/07/2020 21/07/2020 23/07/2020 25/07/2020 02/08/2020 06/08/2020 08/08/2020 10/08/2020 12/08/2020 14/08/2020 01/10/2020 13/10/2020 27/07/20203 29/07/20205 31/07/20207 16/08/20202 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 3 China’s Economy Recover Momentum Extended To Q3 (bn RMB) GDP (bn RMB) Total retail sales of consumer goods 30,000 10% 80,000 2019 2020 YoY 10% 2019 2020 YoY 60,000 4.9% 5% 3.2% 0.70% 20,000 0.9% 0% 40,000 0% -3.1% -7.20% 20,000 -5% 10,000 -10% -6.8% 0 -10% 0 -19.0% -20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 (bn USD) Export (bn RMB) National fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) 50,000 15% 2,000 2019 2020 YoY 20% 2019 2020 YoY 10% 40,000 8.8% 1,500 8.9% 10% 4.6% 5% 30,000 0.80% 0% 1,000 0.2% -0.8% 0% 20,000 -5% 500 -10% -10% -13.3% 10,000 -16.1% -15% 0 -20% 0 -20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1-Q3 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 4 Exports Show Surprising Surge as Global Economy Reopens ▪ China exports surged 9.9% in Sep despite Trump’s “tech grenade” and strong RMB appreciation. RMB VS USD ▪ Surge is powered by demands for lockdown goods overseas (medical supplies, electronics and work-from-home equipment. Supply chain disruption in India/Asean regions also shifted overseas orders back to China. ▪ Strong recovery of exports sectors boosted consumer confidence in coaster regions where the local economy more open to foreign trade China Export 9.5% 9.9% 10% 7.2% 5% 3.5% 0.5% 0% -0.8% -2.3% -5% -3.3% -4.1% -6.2% -10% -6.6% -7.7% -9.0% -13.3% -15% -17.2% YoY Ytd YoY -20% 202001-02 202003 202004 202005 202006 202007 202008 202009 © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 5 Consumer Confidence Improved But Still Weak ❑ Income confidence was improving slightly in Q2 and Q3, but still in a low level Income Sentiment and Income Confidence index Residents' willingness to consume, save and invest © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Source: PBOC, NBS 6 Consumers’ Budget Continues To Drop Jan-Jun 2020 YoY (in nominal terms ) YoY (in real terms) Per capita disposable personal income(RMB) 15,666 2.4% -1.3% Per capita consumer spending (RMB) 9,718 -5.9% -9.3% Gap(RMB) 5,948 Source: NBS © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 7 Outline ▪ COVID-19 Impact to Marco Economy ▪ Passenger Car Market Overview ▪ Market Dynamics: Sales Distribution, Brand Origins and Segments ▪ Outlook © 2020 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. New Car Wholesales Recovered as Economy Rebound CHINA PASSENGER VEHICLE SALES (CAAM WHOLESALES) Sales Volumes Sales YoY Growth Downswing Tax Cut Stimulus Payback COVID-19 8 31% 40% 7 30% 20% 18% 14% 15% 20% 6 15% 13%12% 9% 6% 7% 8% 10% 3% 4% 4% 2% 10% 5 0% 0% 0% -2% -8% -6% 0% 4 -15%-14%-14% -10% 3 -20% In millionunits Pre-buy effect: 4˜5 million extra 2 car sales estimated during the -30% 1 period -45% -40% - -50% Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 9 Source: LMC Automotive; CAAM Wholesales (exports are removed from 2018) ; Vehicle Registrations (2016 onwards: Insurance Data Insurance onwards: (2016 Registrations Vehicle ; 2018) from removed are (exports Wholesales CAAM Automotive; LMC Source: © 2019 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. Reserved. Rights All2019 © AutomotiveLimited, LMC In Million Units Retail ❑ M 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 0 1 2 3 ONTHLY level atlowremained level Gapbetween Wholesales Retailsand stood atonly124,000 unitsinfirst9 months, suggestinginventory thataddednewly sales 20154%of retail million0.8 201501 201502 201503 Sales Followed the Wholesales Pace Tightly Pace Followed the Wholesales Sales 201504 Registration 201505 R 201506 gap: 201507 ETAIL 201508 201509 201510 201511 50% tax cut purchase 201512 S 201601 ALES 201602 sales 2016of2% retail 0.48million 201603 201604 Wholesales 201605 V.S W 201606 201607 201608 gap: 201609 201610 201611 HOLESALES 201612 201701 25% purchasetax cut 201702 201703 sales 2017ofretail 3% million0.68 201704 201705 201706 201707 201708 (2015 201709 gap: 201710 201711 201712 201801 201802 – 201803 S 201804 sales 2018of7% retail million 1.4 EP 201805 201806 201807 2020) 201808 201809 201810 gap: 201811 201812 201901 201902 201903 201904 201905 2019retail of0.4% 201906 201907 82,408gap 201908 sales 201909 201910 201911 201912 202001 202002 202003 202004 202005 ) 202006 124kgap 202007 Ytd 202008 S 10 202009 ep.
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