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North Macedonia Political Briefing: Macedonian Debates on the New European Commission Anastas Vangeli

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North Macedonia Political Briefing: Macedonian Debates on the New European Commission Anastas Vangeli ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 22, No. 1 (MK) Oct 2019 North Macedonia political briefing: Macedonian Debates on the New European Commission Anastas Vangeli 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Macedonian Debates on the New European Commission Introduction As an aspiring candidate for membership in the European Union (EU), the Republic of North Macedonia (hereinafter Macedonia) paid close attention to the formation of the new European Commission (EC) for the period 2019-2024. A significant part of the debates on the new Commission were shaped by the discourse in the mainstream European media – focusing on the negotiations and bargaining between the top leaders on who gets which position, while also discussing the key challenges for the forthcoming commission – the projected exit of the United Kingdom from the EU being the most burning one. At the same time, Macedonian media paid significant attention to the issue of EU enlargement, and in particular, the attitude of the new Commission towards the EU membership candidacy of Macedonia, as well as the appointment of a new Commissioner in charge for enlargement negotiations. Once it turned out that the Directorate General (DG) dealing with enlargement would be assigned to a Hungarian official from the ranks of Fidesz, the discussions on the new Commission and its enlargement agenda became more politicized – as the future of the relations between Macedonia and Hungary remain a big unknown in the aftermath of the escape of the former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski to Budapest, where he has been granted political asylum. This paper therefore discusses the two aspects of the Macedonian debates on the new EC – the general discussion, and the discussion of the Enlargement Portfolio. General Expectations and Analyses Very few Macedonian policymakers and experts have thorough inside knowledge of European politics and the strenuous negotiation processes through which the most powerful governments on the continent agree on the line up of the EC. While the negotiations between European power elites cover a wide range of issues (e.g. stances on trade, migration, climate change, external relations, and so on), what interests Macedonian policymakers, experts and media is whether a given political figure is perceived to have a friendly attitude towards Macedonia or not. This is greatly a result of the prevailing political culture and (lack of) understanding of EU politics, which is still perceived as somewhat distant and “off limits” for Macedonians to comment on substantial issues. Therefore, while the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the French President Emanuel Macron and a range of other political leaders 1 from the region in the period after the EU elections discussed a number of political and policy issues that will shape the future of Europe on the medium and potentially long term, Macedonian elites were on the sidelines not even probing into the substance of the core issues of discussion; their major interest were the various perspectives on EU enlargement and the perceived “friendliness” of the proposed new EC officials towards Macedonia. So when the surprising appointment of the new EC President, Ms. Ursula von der Leyen, was announced, Macedonian elites were in celebratory mood. Von der Leyen, as a German Minister of Defense, was one of the array of German officials who visited Macedonia in September 2018 to voice her support for the Referendum on the Prespa Agreement. Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said that Ms von der Leyen is a proven long-term friend and supporter of Macedonia, who had played a great supportive role for Macedonia's NATO integration; Zaev had voiced his expectations that she will play a similar role in the process of the EU enlargement and Macedonia's accession. The Vice Premier and Minister of Defense, Radmila Shekerinska greeted the selection of von der Leyen arguing a similar point, while also noting that it is a great achievement for Europe to have a female EC President. Macedonian analysts also interpreted the outcome of the tough negotiations in Brussels, that is the appointment of von der Leyen, as a good sign for the EU enlargement prospects and Macedonia's hopes. Even though during the period of the negotiations, the French President Emanuel Macron had fiercely opposed the idea of EU enlargement in the near future (arguing that what EU needs first is comprehensive institutional reform), Macedonian analysis interpreted the nomination of a German Commissioner as a sign that gives grounds to be more optimistic about Macedonia's candidacy bid (as Germany in recent years has been a major supporter of the enlargement process). Macedonian policymakers and analysts at the same time focused on the prospects of Macedonia starting its accession talks with the EU in the course of October 2019. In the Macedonian discourse, enlargement is seen as equally important for the EU as Brexit and other burning political issues that are about to be decided upon by the new Commission. The supportive statements by officials from the outgoing Commission, and from officials from a number of member-states (in the first place Germany and Poland), were interpreted as a sign that EC will finally make the way overdue decision on the opening of the accession talks – which was delayed twice so far – in Summer 2018 and in Summer 2019 (see previous papers on external affairs). France's and other countries' remarks were downplayed in light of the nomination of von der Leyen. Therefore, even though not thoroughly grasping the political 2 dynamics in Brussels, Macedonian elites already carved up a general expectation from the new EC. Debates on the Enlargement Portfolio As a candidate country, Macedonia primarily deals with two organs of the EC – the European External Action Service (EEAS), and the DG that is in charge for enlargement (in the previous EC, it was DG Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations or DG NEAR). Even though EEAS has a central role in shaping and implementing EU's foreign policy and in that sense is central for the enlargement process, Macedonian policymakers and experts have been primarily concerned with DG NEAR (or its successor), which will be directly in charge for contacting and monitoring the enlargement process. Thus, the nomination of Josep Borell as a High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy attracted relatively little attention in the Macedonian debates (contrary to the European debates, where Borell has been a subject of a lot of coverage, primarily due to his particularly direct diplomatic style). Nevertheless, the announcement that it will be a Hungarian official assigned to chair the enlargement portfolio attracted much more attention in the country (as well as in the wider epistemic community that deals with EU enlargement). Hungary has been one of the most committed EU member states when it comes to advancing the enlargement agenda for the Balkans throughout the years, and has therefore fought hard for getting the enlargement portfolio. At the same time, Hungary has been considered as one of the EU member states that has diverged from the liberal governance blueprint over the years, and therefore has been exposed not only to harsh criticism coming from various EU voices across the political spectrum, but also subjected to various punitive measures, such as the triggering of the Article 7 of the EU Treaty. The membership of the ruling party Fidesz in the European People's Party has been temporarily suspended (but not terminated) until further notice. These two disparate images of Hungary – as both a EU enlargement supporter, and as an illiberal EU member state – have shaped the debate on the prospects of a Hungarian official running DG NEAR. The major contradiction in the eyes of liberal commentators was that Hungary, which has been blamed to violate a number of EU norms, would now be in charge of promoting those norms among candidate countries. On the other hand, conservatives claimed that getting a Hungarian to lead DG NEAR was a logical step forward, given Hungary's long-time commitment to the enlargement process. 3 In the case of Macedonia, the nomination of a Hungarian official to be in charge of the enlargement process had added political weight. Namely, in late 2018, the former Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski (sentenced for unlawfully influencing the purchase of armored vehicle – see previous reports), has escaped to Hungary, and requested – and was promptly granted – political asylum, claiming that he has been a victim of politically motivated process in Macedonia, and that he has evidence that his life would be in danger if he returns in his home country. Gruevski has been a long time friend with Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, while Gruevski's VMRO-DPMNE and Orban's Fidesz have historically had close cooperation and shared ideological values. The SDSM-led government protested Hungary's motion to protect Gruevski, framing it as a direct intervention in Macedonia's internal affairs that contradicts EU norms. Experts and media close to SDSM – who had many times in the past criticized the VMRO-DPMNE – Fidesz connection, adopted even harsher rhetoric on Hungary after Gruevski's escape. They had hoped for some kind of intervention by Brussels on the issue. Therefore, the news that Hungary will be taking over the enlargement portfolio under the new EC was perceived as a huge blow to the anti-Gruevski forces in the Macedonia. However, not willing to cause any conflict, Macedonian policymakers remained largely silent on the issue. At the same time, the news that a Hungarian will be in charge of DG NEAR was considered a good sign by VMRO-DPMNE: its Vice President, Aleksandar Nikoloski lauded Hungary's commitment and the example of its own experience (as Hungary joined the EU in 2004), arguing that Hungary is Macedonia's true friend, which will create a momentum to fast-track Macedonia's EU accession bid.
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