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The Lunar Nodal Cycle Influence on the Barents Sea

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The Lunar Nodal Cycle Influence on the Barents Sea Dr.philos. avhandling Harald Yndestad The Lunar nodal cycle influence on the Barents Sea Dr.philos. avhandling 2004:132 Fakultet for samfunnsvitenskap og teknologiledelse Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, NTNU Trondheim ISBN 82-471-6489-2 ISBN 82-471-6488-4 (elektronisk) The Lunar nodal cycle influence on the Barents Sea Harald Yndestad Submitted to Norwegian University of Science and Technology for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Industrial Ecology and Technology Management Norwegian University of Science and Technology 2 “NATURE has been defined as a 'principle of motion and change', and it is the subject of our inquiry. We must therefore see that we understand the meaning of 'motion'; for if it were unknown, the meaning of 'nature' too would be unknown. When we have determined the nature of motion, our next task will be to attack in the same way the terms, which are involved in it.” -- Aristotle 350 BC. PHYSICS. 3 Preface The research for this thesis began in 1996. The purpose was to confirm or reject the hypothesis that the life history of Northeast Arctic cod can be explained as a stationary cycle in a time series. I was rector at Aalesund University College from 1997 to 2000 and my research had to wait. In 2000 and 2001 I developed dynamic models for the most important species in the Barents Sea. The results supported the analysis from my first investigations. The next step was to look for the missing link between the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle and the identified cycles in the Barents Sea. In 2001 I started to develop new methods to analyze climate indicators. The result was the Arctic Oscillation system theory. Wavelet analysis showed promising results and I started to analyze the biomass time series using the same analysis methods. This opened the possibility of a unified theory to explain the results from all time series. The research on this subject has not been straightforward, partly because I did not follow the mainstream of published ideas and partly because the idea that the moon has an influence on the climate and biomass fluctuation has not been accepted by most scientists. The major problems have been to reduce complexity, to get access to data that extended over a long period of time, and to understand the complex dynamics. During this research I found that other scientists had studied the same problem earlier in the 19th century. Later, the 18.6-year cycle was estimated using a long time series, but the work failed to explain the reasons that drove this cycle length. This problem made it necessary for me to go back to the basic ideas found in early papers. I studied the early philosophy of science and general systems theory. I developed new analytical methods and new theories to explain these new results. The results were first presented at international conferences for discussion and were later published in international journals. This thesis represents a synthesis of seven papers that describe the different facets of the investigation. Harald Yndestad 4 Abstract The Barents Sea contains one of the most productive marine areas in the world. For centuries, Northeast Arctic cod and Norwegian spring spawning herring have been of vital importance for the Norwegian fish export industry and hence economic growth in Norway. It has been common knowledge that the biomass of different Barents Sea species experiences both short- and long-term fluctuations. These fluctuations have been explained by changes in herring cycles and cod cycles, or by the introduction of new fishing equipment, and more. Norwegian marine research began in earnest at the beginning of the 19th century. The main task for researchers was to discover how nature influenced cod stocks and the effects these fluctuations had on the lives of people who depended on fishing for a living. Nearly 100 years later, scientists still disagree over the causes for the biomass fluctuations in the Barents Sea. At the same time, marine research has produced long time series, which can now be analyzed using new methods. This thesis represents an investigation of a number of long time series of Arctic climate indicators and biomasses in the Barents Sea. The purpose of this analysis has been to identify a potential stationary cycle in the biomasses. A stationary cycle in the biomass allows for expanded possibilities for better long-term biomass forecasting. The methods are based on general systems theory, analysis of systems dynamics and a wavelet analysis of time series. The wavelet analysis has identified the cycle time and the cycle phase of the dominant cycles in the time series. The phase-relation between the identified cycles contains information abort the dynamic chain of events between climate indicators and the biomasses in the Barents Sea. The investigation has identified harmonic and sub-harmonic cycles of the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle in all analyzed time series. The identified lunar nodal spectrum is explained by a gravity force from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle as the First Cause. The energy from the 18.6-year gravity force from the moon introduces a chain of oscillating events. The oscillating gravity introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the lunar nodal tide and the polar position. A wavelet analysis of time series indicates that movement of the polar position introduces a new lunar nodal spectrum of circulating water in the Arctic Ocean. This circulation water interacts with the 18.6-year lunar nodal tide in the Atlantic Ocean and introduces an oscillation in the extent of Arctic ice, and an oscillation in the inflow of the Atlantic Ocean to the Barents Sea. The lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow introduces a lunar nodal spectrum in the Barents Sea ecology system. Analysis of the biomass in the Barents Sea shows that long-term growth, reduction and collapse are associated with the phase-relation between the biomass eigen dynamics and the lunar nodal spectrum of Atlantic inflow. 5 THESIS OVERVIEW Contents Preface.................................................................................................................................... 3 Abstract .................................................................................................................................. 4 THESIS OVERVIEW................................................................................................................ 5 Contents.................................................................................................................................. 5 Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................. 7 Motivation .............................................................................................................................. 8 The research hypothesis ......................................................................................................... 8 Scientific approach................................................................................................................. 9 Related works....................................................................................................................... 10 Main concepts and ideas ...................................................................................................... 11 Thesis outline ....................................................................................................................... 12 Lists ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Figures.............................................................................................................................. 14 Tables ............................................................................................................................... 14 Notation............................................................................................................................ 14 Symbols............................................................................................................................ 15 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... 15 Definitions........................................................................................................................ 16 References ............................................................................................................................ 17 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 22 1.1 The First Cause............................................................................................................... 22 1.2 The rotary motion........................................................................................................... 24 The lunar nodal cycle ....................................................................................................... 25 The earth’s nutation cycle ................................................................................................ 27 The Polar position movement .......................................................................................... 27 The lunar nodal tide.......................................................................................................... 27 1.3 The lunar
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