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Coherence of Climatic Reconstruction from Historical Documents in China by Different Studies

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Coherence of Climatic Reconstruction from Historical Documents in China by Different Studies INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Int. J. Climatol. (2007) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.1552 Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical documents in China by different studies Quansheng Ge,a* Jingyun Zheng,a Yanyu Tian,a Wenxiang Wu,a Xiuqi Fanga,b and Wei-Chyung Wangc a Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 100101 b School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China 100875 c Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, New York, USA 12203 ABSTRACT: Much effort has been spent in the last few decades to reconstruct the climate over China using a variety of historical documents. However, differences in the results of reconstructions exist even when people are using similar documents. In order to address this issue, 14 published temperature series by different studies were analyzed for coherence and mutual consistency. The analyses on their temporal fluctuations indicate that for the individual time series (standardized) on the 10-years time scales, 57 of the 91 correlation coefficients reach the significance level of 99%. The spatial patterns among the different time series also show high coherency. In addition, consistency also exhibit when comparing the reconstructions with other available natural climate change indicators. Above information was subsequently used to synthesize the temperature series for the last 500 and 1000 years. Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society KEY WORDS coherence; climatic reconstruction; historical documents; China Received 30 May 2006; Revised 11 March 2007; Accepted 25 March 2007 1. Introduction Ge et al. (2003), however, shows that the warmth dur- China has abundant continuous historical documents with ing the Medieval Warm Period is more evident than a large number of records describing the weather and that in the 20th century. Therefore, it is natural that climate information (Wang, 1979; Zhang and Gong, some doubt be raised on the objectivity and quality of 1980; Wang and Zhang, 1988; Zhang, 1991; Bradley reconstruction, even the reliability of the historical doc- et al., 1993; Zhang, 2004; Ge et al., 2005b). As proxy uments as data source. What is the main factor that data with high temporal and spatial resolution, these results in the discord between different reconstructed records have been used to reconstruct climate time series series? What kind of temporal resolution would be suit- since the 1970’s (Chu, 1973; Zheng and Feng, 1986; able while using these reconstructed series with a lack Zhang and Crowley, 1989; Gong and Hameed, 1991; of ‘complete’ historical information? Is there signifi- Wang, 1991; Wang and Zhang, 1992; Zhang, 1994; Zhang cant difference between the climate series reconstructed et al., 1997; Riches et al., 2000; Ge et al., 2003), and from the natural proxy data and the historical docu- have provided valuable datasets for studying past climatic ments? change (Bradley and Jones, 1995; Pfister and Wanner, 2002). This paper attempts to answer the above questions However, compared with instrumental records and nat- through comparative analysis on climatic series recon- ural evidence, the meaning of historical documents is structed with historical documents as well as natural evi- not always so definite (Pfister and Wanner, 2002). Some dence, and furthermore, to illustrate the quality of climate discrepancies have been found between different recon- reconstruction using Chinese historical documents. The structed climatic series derived from Chinese historical study has taken following steps. Firstly, the relationship documents. For example, the warming intensity in the between the different climatic series reconstructed by dif- Medieval Warm Period in China is so moderate when ferent studies using Chinese historical documents is anal- compared with the warmth in the 20th century accord- ysed. Secondly, the coherence between document-based ing to some proxy temperature reconstructed by Chu series and natural-evidence-based series is examined. (1973); Wang and Gong (2000a). The reconstructed tem- Based on the discussion on the validation of histori- perature by Zhang (1993); Man and Zhang (1993) and cal documents, the synthesized temperature series are achieved. * Correspondence to: Quansheng Ge, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A To provide a general idea on the work basis of Datun Road, Beijing 100101 China. E-mail: [email protected] the reconstructed series discussed in this article, we Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Q. GE ET AL. have annexed an introduction on the climatic informa- 110–120 °E) during 1500’s-1990’s, and the 30-year tion recorded in Chinese historical documents. More- mean winter-half-year temperature series for the past over, because some proper nouns may cause confusion 2000 years. Most of these above series focus on last to readers who are unfamiliar with ancient Chinese lit- 500 years because the climatic information in historical erature, and some words may need a clear definition, documents is more abundant in this period (see Appendix a glossary is annexed as well to help the understand- I for detail). In our study, 14 document-based temperature ing. Both appendices are attached at the end of this series over 500 years are selected and analysed (Table I). paper. These series all have 10-year-resolution, and cover large area of Eastern China (Figure 1). Besides the half-millennial series above, some scien- 2. Research Materials tists have reconstructed the millennial-scale temperature series of China, based on either historical records, or In past decades, Chinese researchers have reconstructed natural proxy data (Table II). Wang and Gong (2000a) many temperature series from Chinese historical docu- collected documentary records on abnormal meteorolog- ments. For example, based on the records of frost, heavy ical and hydrological phenomena, from which the cold snow, river and lake freezing, excessive rain, cold disas- index can be defined, and reconstructed the tempera- ter, etc, Wang and Wang (1990) reconstructed the winter ture series for every 50-year in Eastern China during temperature of the East China (25–35 °N, 115–120 °E) A.D. 800–2000 (WG00). With similar method used in during 1470’s–1970’s. In this study, the description of 500-year temperature series reconstruction (Table I), Ge cold/warm in historical documents was ranked and trans- et al. (2003) reconstructed the winter-half-year tempera- formed into corresponding anomaly temperature series, ture series for every 30-year in Eastern China during A.D. by calibration with modern data. Similar method was 1–2000 (Ge03). Tan et al. (2003) analysed the stalag- used by Wang et al. (1998) to reconstruct the decadal mite near Beijing, and reconstructed the annual summer- temperature in the other area of Eastern China for the past temperature series during A.D.1–1985 (Tan03). Liu et al. 500 years. Zhang (1980); Zheng and Zheng (1993) calcu- (2004) reconstructed the tree ring width chronology in the lated the frequency of cold/warm year, and reconstructed Qilian Mountain in Qinghai Province (near Tibet), and the decadal winter temperature in different regions dur- estimated the temperature variation of the region during ing 1470’s–1970’s. This method is also used by Shen A.D. 1000–2000 (Liu04). Yang et al. (2003) analysed the and Chen (1993) to reconstruct relatively longer (1100’s- ice core samples from Qinghai-Tibet plateau, and recon- 1970’s) temperature series in the drainage area of the structed the relative temperature series for every 50 years Taihu Lake. Based on a collection of the phenologi- during A.D. 1–2000 (Yang03). Yang et al. (2002) syn- cal records on plant, hydrometeorology and agriculture, thesized several reconstructed series based on tree ring, Ge et al. (2003) estimated the difference between ancient ice core, lake sediments, and historical documents, and and modern phenology, and reconstructed the decadal developed relative decadal temperature series for China winter-half-year (October–April, similar herein after) during A.D. 1–2000 (Yang02). These six series are also temperature series for Eastern China (25–40°N, compared in this study. Figure 1. Locations and area of 14 temperature series from Chinese historical documents by different studies. Copyright 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. (2007) DOI: 10.1002/joc Copyright Table I. Brief information of 14 reconstructed series at 10-year resolution. 2007 Royal Meteorological Society Region Reconstructed Length of Temporal Historical Locality Reconstruction Authors Abbreviation indexes series resolution records of the method and the of the records publishing series year North China Annual 1380’s–1990’s 10 years Frost, heavy snow, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Rank the description of Wang et al., 1998 WNCY COHERENCE OF CHINESE DOCUMENTA temperature (rivers and lakes) Shanxi, northwest of temperature variations, freezing, over rain, Shandong, north of and transform the rank cold disaster, etc. Henan into corresponding East China Annual 1380’s–1990’s 10 years As above Anhui, Jiangsu, anomaly temperature Wang et al., 1998 WECY temperature Zhejiang, Jiangxi, series by calibration Shanghai with modern data Central China Annual 1470’s–1990’s 10 years As above Hunan, Hubei Wang et al., 1998 WCCY temperature South China Annual 1500’s–1990’s 10 years As above Guangdong Wang et al., 1998 WSCY temperature Fujian and Taiwan Annual 1500’s–1990’s 10 years As above Fujian, Taiwan Wang et al., 1998 WFTY Provinces temperature Shandong Winter 1470’s–1980’s 10 years Frost, heavy snow, Shandong Calculated the Zheng and Zheng, ZSDW RY CLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTION Province temperature (rivers and lakes) frequency of cold/warm 1993 freezing years in every 10 years, Middle reaches of Winter 1470’s–1960’s 10 years Frost, heavy snow, Hankou, Xiangyang, then reconstruct the Zhang, 1980 ZMYW Yangtze temperature (rivers and lakes) Changsha series with the freezing, over rain, regression equation cold disaster, etc.
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