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Final Report for Project PG0102 Ramorum 060911

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Final Report for Project PG0102 Ramorum 060911 Measuring the economic, environmental and ecosystem services value of herita ge gardens, heathland and woodland in the context of determining potential impacts from the regulated plant pathogens Phytophthora ramorum and Phytopthora kernoviae Prepared for: Defra Prepared by: ADAS UK Ltd in conjunction with CJC Consulting, Fera, and the London School of Economics Date: 17th June 2011 0936648 Project FFG0921: TEV at risk from P. ramorum and P. kernoviae Acknowledgements The project team would like to thank the time, effort and support provided by the Defra economists, Phil Cryle, Adam Bell, Meredith Ward and internal reviewers as well as the team at Fera including Alan Inman, Keith Walters, Claire Sansford, and Judith Turner. For assistance and provision of information to: Bruce Rothnie, Jennifer Mcvey, Pat Snowdon, Olly Stephenson, Justin Gilbert, Shona Cameron and Mark Broadmeadow (Forestry Commission), Suzanne Perry and Keith Kirby (Natural England) and Ian Wright (National Trust). Project team: Glyn Jones, Ben Drake (ADAS) – lead authors and contact Nigel Boatman, John Hughes, Kate Somerwill (Fera) Bob Crabtree (CJC Consulting) Susana Mourato (London School of Economics) Project FFG0921: TEV at risk from P. ramorum and P. kernoviae Executive summary Introduction The main aim of this research is to provide estimates of the total value to society of heritage gardens, heathland and woodland which may be under threat from impacts from Phytophthora ramorum (P. ramorum) and Phytophthora kernoviae (P. kernoviae) . The estimates provide an update to the figures used in the 2008 Impact Assessment. Background P. ramorum and P. kernoviae are exotic plant pathogens that have only recently been described in the last decade. P. ramorum was first confirmed in Great Britain in 2002, whilst P. kernoviae was first discovered here in 2003. Both species represent a threat to ornamental and wild shrubs and trees. Ornamental plants in heritage gardens can be seriously affected, as can susceptible trees in woodlands where leaf hosts (principally Rhododendron ponticum and more recently Japanese larch) occur and drive epidemics; heathland species, especially Vaccinium species are also considered at high risk. P. ramorum is present in various parts of Europe and is also reported as an introduced exotic plant pathogen in the USA; it is currently subject to EC emergency phytosanitary measures, which are under review. Following an EU-wide Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) the EC Standing Committee for Plant Health (SCPH) have provisionally agreed that P. ramorum should become listed as a harmful organism within the EC Plant Health Directive (2000/29/EC) with phytosanitary measures yet to be defined and agreed. P. kernoviae is recorded in Great Britain and in Eire, as well as in New Zealand. A UK PRA for P. kernoviae was also reviewed by the EC SCPH and there has been provisional agreement that P. kernoviae should be subject to emergency EU phytosanitary measures, again yet to be defined and agreed. There is a Phytophthora control programme that began in April 2009 with funding of £23.5 million over five years (this included some £4 million of existing funding for work on Phytophthora). The principal aim is the combat two pathogens to reduce pathogen inoculum to epidemiologically insignificant levels by removing sporulating host plants from high risk areas. This will reduce the risk of significant tree death and significant impact on heathlands within England and Wales. In August 2009 it was established that P. ramorum had begun to cause the death of a previously unknown host, Japanese larch trees. Since infected larch produces more inoculum than R. ponticum , the programme has redirected funding from clearance of infected R. ponticum to clearance of certain infected larch and additional aerial surveillance 1. A number of projects have been funded by Defra which have investigated the epidemiology of outbreaks caused by P. ramorum and P. kernoviae in England (PHO194, PHO195, PHO414, PHO308). These projects have established methodologies for the investigation of key aspects of the epidemiology and developed new quantitative diagnostic approaches for investigating persistence and dispersal. Studies to date have provided valuable epidemiological data, which have contributed to the development of pest risk analyses and pest eradication and containment strategies. Current work on developing disease management approaches P. ramorum and P. kernoviae on Vaccinium and other heathland species includes work on biodiversity impacts of Phytophthora, assuming different degrees of spread and host destruction, and the likely impact on ecosystem services. 1 The cost of larch clearance is met by the forest owner Project FFG0921: TEV at risk from P. ramorum and P. kernoviae The impacts of invasive alien species like P. ramorum and P. kernoviae are multifaceted. They can have consequences for the economy and human welfare directly (e.g. by damaging nursery stock) or indirectly (e.g. by impairing ecosystem services). Changes induced by invasive alien species can include the wholesale loss or alteration of goods (e.g. horticulture and forest products) and services (e.g. climate stabilisation and recreation). Terms of reference The aim was to produce an estimate of the total economic value at risk (TEV at risk ) from the diseases in the absence of continued control. This is not a marginal valuation of the value at risk, but is rather a valuation of the value at risk from a cessation of disease controls. The TEV estimate is composed of use and non-use value, with the former representing the value obtained by the public from direct enjoyment of heritage gardens, heathland and woodland, while the latter represents the value obtained by the public from knowing these habitats remain unchanged simply to have the option of future use, or for altruistic or bequest motives. This aim has given rise to a number of methodological issues. Normally the counterfactual to a scenario of no control would be the expected spread given the current controls in place. The scenarios are presented in ES Figure 1. Starting from the current period, the blue line shows a scenario whereby the diseases are contained to their current level of spread and the red line the scenario of spread with no controls. The dashed lines present potential spread with controls (these lines could be decreasing if the control is successful beyond containment). Spread with no control Possible spread Damage with control Current spread: “contained” in future Time ES Figure 1: TEV at risk However, given the inherent uncertainty involved in modelling the spread of these diseases it was decided by the project Steering Group that using a counterfactual with current controls would present two uncertain points for the valuation and that the project should instead seek to estimate the value as represented by the difference between the blue and red lines. Two distinct valuation exercises were undertaken to identify TEV at risk . The first undertook an assessment of the public’s willingness-to-visit (WTV) affected habitats Project FFG0921: TEV at risk from P. ramorum and P. kernoviae under a scenario of uncontrolled spread and their willingness to pay (WTP) to preserve habitat as described by the current spread situation. The second exercise considered the impact on the commercial forestry sector and incorporated both timber values and restocking effects (private costs) as well as carbon values (social costs). Method In order to estimate the TEV at risk it was necessary to first estimate the total area of the habitats that were at risk from uncontrolled spread. Spread maps were created by incorporating host maps for four susceptible species into a Metapopulation Epidemic Model (MPEM) developed by Cambridge University that is being funded separately as part of the Phytophthora programme. The spread maps and underlying data were used in both aspects of the valuation exercise. The spread maps were incorporated in a contingent valuation survey that included questions relating to WTV as well as WTP. The survey followed on from similar survey work undertaken for the Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) project Memory and Prediction in Tree Disease Control. Unpublished results from this work suggested that changes in WTV would be minimal and that a survey should incorporate WTP questions. This is because basing estimates on changed WTV would underestimate the public values relating to the diseases and habitats by excluding the effect of the change in visit experience. To capture this, the survey included a number of photographs showing uninfected and infected plant species as well as maps showing the locations of the habitats. Respondents numbered a little below 1,000 and the survey was conducted online. This produced estimates of the publics’ WTP to prevent further spread and showed how visitation rates may or may not change at regional and national scales. The potential area of larch at risk from the diseases was used to estimate the timber and carbon values at risk using a discounted cash flow investment appraisal model. Results i) WTV and WTP As expected, the majority of responses were for visitation to remain unchanged. ES Figure 2 shows that there would be a net reduction in visitor rates and clearly this would be expected to have some impact on those sites with entrance fees. The net reduction is greater for national sites (those outside the respondents region). It may be that remedial changes to an infected site over time would negate even the small net reduction in visits. What is important though is that the change in visitor rates implied by the survey omits the effect of reduced enjoyment from continued visits to affected habitats. Heritage Gardens Heathland Woodland Change in Regional National Regional National Regional National Visitation More 105 65 60 47 65 44 The Same 620 654 681 690 692 700 Less 202 208 186 190 170 183 Project FFG0921: TEV at risk from P. ramorum and P.
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