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Climate Change: Observed Trends, Simulations, Impacts and Response Strategy for the South African Vineyards

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Climate Change: Observed Trends, Simulations, Impacts and Response Strategy for the South African Vineyards Réchauffement climatique, quels impacts probables sur les vignobles ? 1 Global warming, which potential impacts on the vineyards? 28-30 mars 2007 / March 28-30, 2007 Climate change: observed trends, simulations, impacts and response strategy for the South African vineyards Valérie BONNARDOT 1∗ and Victoria Anne CAREY 2 1 ARC-Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Private Bag X79, Pretoria 0001, South Africa 2 University of Stellenbosch, Department of Viticulture and Oenology, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa [email protected] - [email protected] Abstract Global warming is scientifically and widely accepted (IPCC). Climate change is a reality and its impacts are increasingly felt in South Africa. According to a recent economic impact assessment on climate change in agriculture and particularly the study on farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate, long-term changes in temperature and rainfall have been noticed in all nine provinces of South Africa (Benhin, 2005). This paper focuses on climate change in the Western Cape Province, where most of the traditional South African vineyards lie, examining the observed climatic trends and potential impacts for viticulture. Using the longest data series from weather stations located in the Stellenbosch wine district, major trends in rainfall and temperature over the past 40 years can be drawn for the vineyards of this region: A significant increase in the annual temperature values was noticed. February, ripening period for most of the cultivars in the Western Cape Province, was warmer in terms of minimum as well as maximum temperatures. This may hasten sugar accumulation in wine grapes. With a significant temperature increase from April to July, the winter season has shortened. As a result, lack of sufficient cold during late autumn and beginning of winter may interfere with bud dormancy, which in turn may lead to irregular budburst, resulting uneven growth, berry set, fruit ripening and crop loss. The use of chemical agents to get an even budburst may have to increase. A significant increase in August and September rainfall was noticed. This means that the rainy season tends to occur later than expected. As a result of more spring rainfall, disease pressure during the early season may increase. Assuming an even 0.5°C temperature increase over the year (accepted value for Southern Africa), some global climatic indices for viticulture were calculated for different South African wine regions. Some regions reach the upper level of their group while others change to warmer groups. More heat tolerant varieties would have to be planted. Changes in the areas of suitability for certain cultivars could be of major importance for the regional economy. Adaptation, change in production practices and development of new wine regions are the keys to surviving climate change. The search for cooler locations towards the coast, where the moderating effect of the ocean is expected to temper increasing summer temperatures or at altitude, as well as the development of vineyards towards the eastern part of the Western Cape Province with an evenly distributed rainfall are an existing response to climate change in South Africa. Key-Words: Climatic trends, vineyards, South Africa * * * ∗ Current address: BERCAV Bureau d’Etude et de Recherche en Climatologie Appliquée à la Viticulture, 3 479 Route de Thonon, 74380 Cranves-Sales, France. Réchauffement climatique, quels impacts probables sur les vignobles ? 2 Global warming, which potential impacts on the vineyards? 28-30 mars 2007 / March 28-30, 2007 South Africa is a young wine producing country with an increasing area under vines (110.000 ha in 2005), a production of 950 million litres (3% of the world production) 9th largest overall volume production. Locally, viticulture represents 8.2% of the gross product of the Western Cape Province and there are 257.000 persons working directly or indirectly for the wine industry (SAWIS, 2006). It therefore forms one of the vital sectors of the provincial economy. Climate is an important environmental factor in viticulture, which, together with soil surveys, is studied in order to help in establishing new locations for vineyards, assessing the potential viability and profitability of the vineyard and managing sites. Global warming is scientifically and widely accepted (IPCC, 2001). Climate change is a reality and its impacts are increasingly felt in South Africa. According to a recent economic impact assessment on climate change in agriculture and particularly the study on farmers’ perceptions of changes in climate, long-term changes in temperature and rainfall have been noticed in all nine provinces of South Africa (Nhemachena et al., 2006). This paper focuses on climate change in the Western Cape Province, where most of the traditional South African vineyards are situated, examining the observed climatic trends and potential impacts for viticulture. I. Data and method Since 1940, the Institute for Soil, Climate and Water of the Agricultural Research Council has installed a countrywide network of weather stations (mechanical and automatic) aimed at monitoring the climate and satisfying the climatic requirements of agriculture. Mechanical weather stations were chosen due to their longer time series of daily data (40 in total with at least 13 years of records) and a larger spatial representation of the wine regions compared to the automatic weather station network, which has been established more recently in a reduced number of regions. Using the longest temperature and rainfall series from these mechanical weather stations located in the different wine regions of South Africa, a descriptive statistical analysis (3-year moving averages, decade averages and linear trends) and the calculation of the Winkler index for viticulture, preliminary results can be drawn for the vineyards of this country over the past 40 years. II. Results II.1. Observed climatic trends A significant increase in the annual temperature values was noticed for the past three decades. Figure 1 shows the example of the annual maximum and minimum temperature for a station in the Stellenbosch wine district from 1967 to 2005 as well as the 3-year moving averages and the linear trends. Except the usual inter-variability between years, both minimum and maximum temperature trends show a positive slope (warming) over the 39-year period. The top ten warmest years in the district and over this period occurred after 1985 except for 1973 (eighth warmest year). The five warmest years were 1999, 2000, 1985, 1993 and 2005 with annual mean temperature between 0.6 and 1°C above the 1967-2005 average (Table 1). Looking at the average per decades for the same weather station (Fig. 2), a 1°C and 0.7°C increase for maximum and minimum temperature respectively were noticeable over the past three decades. Réchauffement climatique, quels impacts probables sur les vignobles ? 3 Global warming, which potential impacts on the vineyards? 28-30 mars 2007 / March 28-30, 2007 Table 1: Annual temperature (maximum, minimum and mean) and anomaly for the top 12 warmest years over the 1967- 2005 period at Nietvoorbij in the Stellenbosch wine district. Top five warmest years in bold red. Anomaly (°C) Warmest Years MaxT (°C) MinT (°C) MeanT (°C) year MaxT MinT MeanT (rank) 1973 23,4 11,9 17,7 0,6 0,2 0,5 7th 1984 23,2 12,0 17,6 0,4 0,3 0,4 10th 1985 23,6 12,2 17,9 0,8 0,5 0,7 3rd 1986 23,3 12,2 17,7 0,5 0,5 0,5 8th 1988 23,3 11,8 17,6 0,5 0,1 0,4 9th 1993 23,4 12,2 17,8 0,6 0,5 0,6 5th 1994 23,4 12,0 17,7 0,6 0,3 0,5 6th 1999 24,1 12,4 18,2 1,3 0,7 1,0 1st 2000 23,6 12,1 17,9 0,8 0,4 0,7 2nd 2001 23,1 12,1 17,6 0,3 0,4 0,4 11 th 2004 23,1 11,9 17,5 0,3 0,2 0,3 12th 2005 23,4 12,3 17,8 0,6 0,6 0,6 4th 24 23 22 R2 = 0,32 21 p < 0,01 20 19 18 17 16 15 Temperature (°C) 2 14 R = 0,29 p < 0,01 13 12 11 10 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Years MaxT MinT Linear MaxT Linear MinT 3-year moving average Figure 1. Minimum (blue) and maximum (red) annual temperature at Nietvoorbij weather station in the Stellenbosch Wine District (1967-2005 period). Réchauffement climatique, quels impacts probables sur les vignobles ? 4 Global warming, which potential impacts on the vineyards? 28-30 mars 2007 / March 28-30, 2007 25 24 23,0 23,1 23,0 22,5 23 22,1 22 R2 = 0,82 21 p < 0,01 20 19 18 17 16 Temperature (°C) 15 R2 = 0,78 14 p < 0,01 13 11,6 11,7 11,8 11,8 12 11,1 11 10 1967-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-05 Decades MaxT MinT Linear (MaxT) Linear (MinT) Figure 2. Minimum (blue) and maximum (red) annual temperature per decade at Nietvoorbij weather station in the Stellenbosch Wine District (1967-2005 period). Considering an earlier annual temperature time series (1942-1965) at another weather station (Lourensford) in the same district (Stellenbosch), the slopes were slightly positive but not statistically significant (Fig. 3). A slight temperature increase (0.4°C and 0.5°C for maximum and minimum temperature respectively could be noticed but it does not indicate a significant warming.
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