Regional Environmental Change (2019) 19:2299–2310 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Future effects of change on the suitability of production across

M. F. Cardell1 & A. Amengual1 & R. Romero1

Received: 29 November 2018 /Accepted: 20 April 2019 /Published online: 4 May 2019 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Abstract Climate directly influences the suitability of wine grape production. Modified patterns of temperature and precipitation due to will likely affect this relevant socio-economic sector across Europe. In this study, prospects on the future of bioclimatic indices linked to viticultural zoning are derived from observed and projected daily meteorological data. Specifically, daily series of precipitation and 2-m maximum and minimum temperatures from the E-OBS data-set have been used as the regional observed baseline. Regarding projections, a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) from the European CORDEX project have been used to create projections of these variables under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emission scenarios. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the simulated regional scenarios to properly project the RCM data at local scale. Our results suggest that wine grape growing will be negatively affected in southern Europe. We expect a reduction in table quality vines and wine grape production in this region due to a future increase in the cumulative thermal stress and dryness during the growing season. Furthermore, the projected precipitation decrease, and higher rates of evapotranspiration due to a warmer climate will likely increase water requirements. On the other hand, high-quality areas for will significantly extend northward in western and central Europe. The suitability zoning for the mid-century derived from this study could contribute to better design new strategies and management practices that would benefit the European sector.

Keywords Climate change . Europe . Bioclimatic indices . Wine grape production

Introduction global distribution, its growth and wine quality (Van Leeuwen et al. (2004); Jones (2006); Santos et al. (2011)). European wine production represents more than 70% of the Grapevine is one of the most sensitive crops to climate world total, and it is a sector of great relevance for the envi- modifications, so that it needs a basal temperature of 10 °C ronment, society, and economy across the continent. for its growing cycle (Amerine et al. (1944); Winkler (1974)). According to the State of the Vitiviniculture World Market Adequate solar radiation is also required for its correct devel- 2018 (http://www.oiv.int), Europe account for opment (e.g., Magalhães (2008)). Vineyards are traditionally approximately 52.7% of the total vine cultivation areas grown in areas where the average temperature during the rip- worldwide. They are especially predominant in the ening season (April–October for the Northern Hemisphere) is Mediterranean region, particularly in Spain, France, and between 12 and 22 °C (Jones 2006). This optimum tempera- Italy. Several studies analyze the effects of climate change in ture is different for each grape variety: 15.0 °C for , viticulture, since climate plays an important role in grape wine 15.5 °C for , 17.2 °C for Cavernet Franc, 17.5 °C for Tempranillo, 18.0 °C for , 18.2 °C for Garnacha. In addition, the thermal optimum for the development of the fruit This article is part of the Topical Collection on Climate change impacts in in summer is within the 20–30 °C range. High temperatures the Mediterranean during the ripening season contribute to obtain a fruit with less aromas and a loss of pigments, such as lycopene (Collins et al. * M. F. Cardell [email protected] 2006). The plant photosynthetic system can be negatively af- fected by a prolonged exposure to extreme hot temperatures

1 (e.g., above 40 °C, Berry and Bjorkman (1980)). Department de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Consequently, high temperatures can compromise grape vine 07122 Palma, Spain 2300 M. F. Cardell et al. productivity and quality (Kliewer (1977); Mullins et al. The assessment of regional and local impacts on grapevine (1992)). Grapevines have the capacity to tolerate temperatures cultivation requires future projections of the climate variables as low as 15–20 °C below zero during the early stages of described above. Here, we obtained future projections of these growth (Hidalgo 2002). However, its production is especially variables under different future emission scenarios from vulnerable to frost during spring, which could irreversibly Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the European damage the (Spellman 1999). CORDEX project. This work analyzes the future effects of Projected changes over Europe under high emission scenarios climate change on the suitability of European regions for wine (A1B, Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES); grape growing, using RCMs outputs that were corrected with Nakicenovic et al. (2000) and the RCP8.5, Representative a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) adjustment method. Applying this Concentration Pathways scenarios; Moss et al. (2008)) indicate adjustment method to model projections brings novelty over an average warming between 2.5 and 5.5 °C by the end of the existing impact studies and provides greater concordance be- twenty-first century, with higher warming rates in southern re- tween the input climate data and the local climate conditions gions and towards the northeast (Christensen and Christensen (Cardell et al. 2019). Model outputs suffer from systematic (2007); Jacob et al. (2014)). Additionally, temperature extremes errors arising from different sources (e.g., still too coarse spa- are also projected to increase (Andrade et al. 2012). Mean annual tial resolution, simple parametrizations, uncertainties in the precipitation is expected to decrease in most of southern Europe boundary forcing), and it is advised to calibrate them before and to increase in northern regions (Meehl et al. (2007); Jacob their use in impact studies. Correction approaches such as the et al. (2014); Cardell et al. (2019)). Although grapevine is rela- delta-change method or un-biasing procedures assume that the tively resistant to drought thanks to its deep roots, it can be variability in the climate scenario remains unchanged and is adversely affected by severe dryness (Koundouras et al. perfect, respectively (Déqué (2007), Ho et al. (2012)). The (1999);DosSantosetal.(2003)). Therefore, the projected future quantile-quantile mapping approach applied here is more flex- climate change can modify the conditions favorable for the ible in this regard. Quantile adjustments have been widely growth of vine in the current winemaking regions and lead to used before because they adjust not only the mean and vari- the appearance of new potential wine producing areas. ance but also the quantiles of the variable of interest (Boé et al. A wide range of bioclimatic indices has been proposed to (2007), Amengual et al. (2012), Tramblay et al. (2013), assess the suitability of a given region for growing grape wine, Ivanov and Kotlarski (2017), etc). In this study, the suitability which include different climate variables that affect the plant of a region for wine production is measured through various growth and development. For instance, the average growing bioclimatic indices and climate variables obtained from an season temperature index (GST), which measures the average ensemble of 14 RCM simulations from the EURO- temperature during the ripening season (Jones et al. 2010). The CORDEX project (Jacob et al. 2014). Prior to calculating vulnerability of vineyards to severe thermal stress makes it also the bioclimatic indices, the quantile-quantile adjustment de- necessary to consider maximum temperatures during spring scribed in Cardell et al. (2019) is applied to the cumulative and summer. Additionally, enhanced plant evapotranspiration distribution functions (CDFs) of daily minimum, maximum due to higher temperatures results in increased water demand temperature and accumulated precipitation from each individ- for its cultivation. Therefore, previous studies have analyzed ual RCM. not only future precipitation amounts, but also the real evapo- The structure of the paper is as follows: the “Database and transpiration (e.g., Camps and Ramos (2012)) and the projected methods” section introduces the observed and simulated data- changes in the water balance (Moriondo et al. 2013). The bases, the empirical correction method, and the bioclimatic Winkler and Huglin indices (WI, Winkler (1974) and HI, indices used; the “Results” section presents the projected Huglin (1978), respectively) are heat accumulation or degree- changes for the parameters of interest; the main results are day indices commonly used in viticulture zoning studies (e.g., discussed in the “Discussion” section; finally, the Jones et al. (2010); Malheiro et al. (2010); Fraga et al. (2013); “Conclusions and further remarks” section describes the main Fraga et al. (2017); Teslic et al. (2018), etc.). Other factors that conclusions and offers some additional remarks for future may restrict the viability of viticulture –particularly at the limits work. of the cultivation suitability areas– would be high levels of precipitation or frost occurrences during the blooming season (Mosedale et al. (2015); Nesbitt et al. (2018)) and the possible Database and methods climate-driven phenological changes in the vineyard (Molitor et al. (2014); Mosedale et al. (2016)). In addition, the suitability Input data of an area for growing grape wine is also determined as a result of non-atmospheric factors, such as soil type and grape variety The bioclimatic indices for grapevine growth over Europe that is planted (Van Leeuwen et al. 2004). However, this work were derived from gridded series of daily accumulated precip- focuses on changes in atmospheric factors only. itation and 2-m daily minimum and maximum temperature Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe 2301 from the E-OBS dataset (www.ecad.eu, Haylock et al. (2007)). A second validation of the technique was carried out, (2008)). E-OBS covers the entire European land surface, and in this case for a period of 25 alternate years from 1956 to it is available in four different spatial resolutions. Here, we use 2004, with the goal of alleviating the effects of the climate the highest available resolution (~ 25 km), which uses the change signal, already present throughout the historical study same grid rotation as most of the EURO-CORDEX simula- period. Using calibrated series instead of raw RCM outputs tions. We adopted the 1981–2005 period (25 years) as a cli- resulted in an improved representation of the regional and mate baseline to characterize future changes in the bioclimatic local climate characteristics. In particular, this approach clear- indices. ly reduced the biases of extreme values statistical distribu- Future climate projections were created from the regional tions. In addition, the standard deviation among models was simulations available from the EURO-CORDEX project (fur- notably reduced. ther information available at http://www.euro-cordex.net). We used 2-m minimum and maximum temperatures and precipi- Bioclimatic indices tation from 14 different RCM simulations. This ensemble is composed of 5 RCMs (ALADIN53, CCLM4-8-17, Once RCM outputs have been statistically adjusted, seven HIRHAM5, RACMO22E, and RCA4) driven by different metrics, including climate variables and bioclimatic indices GCMs under the future emission scenarios RCP4.5 and commonly used in viticulture zoning, were derived and ana- RCP8.5. All RCMs have a spatial resolution of approximately lyzed over the European domain (Table 1). These are: 12 km. We selected the 2021–2100 period to asses climate change impacts on European wine grape production and di- (i) Maximum temperature during summer (Tmax, June– vided it into three time slices: 2021–2045 (early future twenty- August). first century), 2046–2070 (mid twenty-first century), and (ii) Annual precipitation (AP). 2071–2095 (late twenty-first century). (iii) Average growing season temperature index (GST; April–October for the northern hemisphere; Jones Quantile-quantile adjustment method et al. (2010)). (iv) Winkler thermal index (WI) was calculated during the The assessment of future effects of climate change on the grape-growing season by using daily minimum and suitability of wine grape production requires reliable projec- maximum temperatures (where one degree-day equals tions of climatic variables from RCMs. Since RCMs still suf- the average daily temperature minus 10 °C; Winkler fer from potentially serious biases, it is advisable to statistical- (1974)). However, WI index does not adjust for increas- ly correct their outputs to obtain meaningful results on the ing daylight duration with higher latitudes. simulated properties of the climate system (Zahradníček (v) (HI) is a thermal index that considers daily et al. 2016). These inaccuracies are usually amended with mean and maximum temperatures from April to September. adjustment procedures so that model outputs are adequate With respect to the WI, HI weights daily maximum tem- for impact studies. perature more and improves the fitting of potential sugar Within this context, the Q-Q adjustment described in detail content of the grape (Huglin 1978). Moreover, it also has in Cardell et al. (2019) has been applied. Briefly, the calibra- the advantage of considering the increasing length of the tion method is founded on a non-parametric function that cor- daylight towards higher latitudes. rects mean, variability, and shape errors in the simulated (vi) Real evapotranspiration (RET). It was estimated from CDFs. The present climate CDFs are built using the climatic the annual potential evaporation (PET) following the variables from the 25-year observed and simulated baselines Thornthwaite’s formula (Thornthwaite 1948) and apply- (1981–2005), while the future ones are based on future simu- ing a crop-specific coefficient (Kc, Allen et al. (1998)). lated periods of the same length. Next, differences between (vii) Water balance (WB). The estimated water balance of quantiles from future and simulated baseline functions are the vineyard was defined as the difference between pre- computed for the entire distributions and rescaled on the basis cipitation and RET. Thus, the specific characteristics of of the observed baseline CDFs. The performance of Q-Q ad- each cultivation zone were not considered (e.g., water justment was successfully tested by Cardell et al. (2019). They retention capacity of each soil, type of root system). compared ensemble-mean calibrated and raw distributions of daily accumulated precipitation, 2-m minimum and maximum temperatures historical runs against observed CDFs for an The bioclimatic indices described above help to quantify independent validation period. Firstly, the performance of and classify the suitability of a given region for the cultivation the multi-model for a 25-year interval (1956–1980) was eval- of grape vine. However, they also have limitations that should uated by comparing the raw and calibrated CDFs against the be taken into consideration. For instance, WI and HI indices observations with the Perkins skill score (PSS; Perkins et al. are not based on grapevine physiological modeling, so, it is 2302 M. F. Cardell et al.

Table 1 Climate indices, their formulations, and sources. Tmax, Tmin, for the corresponding latitude; Kc is a specific coefficient of the crop; PET and T are maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures, respectively; K is is the annual potential evaporation a latitude coefficient which takes into account the average daylight period

Index and abbreviations Expression Reference

Growing season temperature index (GST) ∑ (Tmax + Tmin)/2 (April–October) Jones et al. 2010 (WI) ∑ ([(Tmax + Tmin)/2]-10 °C) Amerine and Winkler 1944 Huglin index (HI) ∑ (K/2)*[(T – 10 °C) + (Tmax - 10 °C)] Huglin 1978

Real evapotranspiration (RET) Kc *PET Allenetal.(2006)andThornthwaite(1948)

difficult to define accurate upper thresholds for each grape Projected changes in the GSTalso indicate a positive signal variety above which high quality are not viable (Van across all the domain. Among the viticultural regions, the Leeuwen et al. 2013). Also, indices such as HI and GST show largest increases are found in SEM (between 2.4 and 4.2 °C; inconsistent correlation results with regard to grape maturity Fig. 2). Specifically, this index would reach the highest growth timing studies over (Jarvis et al. (2017). Despite rate in southern Greece, central Spain, and the Middle East these limitations, grapevine phenology and wine quality are countries (up to 3, 3.6, and 4.2 °C, respectively). The standard highly correlated in European vineyards (Jones et al. 2005) deviation for the GST pattern shows that there is a good agree- and the indices can be readily adapted to phenological chang- ment among the 14 models, especially in central Spain (less es imposed by climate change by adding new classes or than 0.7 °C; Fig. 2). changing their limits (Santos et al. (2012); Fraga et al. (2013)). The WI projections reveal a northward extension and a substantial increase over Western and southern Europe. Based on the Winkler classification (Table 2), La and Results Piemonte (north-center Spain and northwestern Italy respec- tively, Fig. 3a) classified as regions III would become a region Temperature-related attributes V by the mid-century (Fig. 3b). Similarly, (located in south-western France) would also suffer an increase from We performed trend analyses of the different climate variables region II (Fig. 3a) to region IV (Fig. 3b). Southern France and bioclimatic indices for the three future 25-year time slices would also undergo an increase in the Winkler classification, (see the BInput data^ section). Future multi-model mean particularly Montpellier, which would change its classification changes in these indices and climatic variables, compared from region IV (Fig. 3a)toregionVI(Fig.3b) by the mid- with the observed time slice (1981–2005), have been ana- century. According to the inter-model SD (less than lyzed. The associated standard deviation (SD) among models 150 °C day, Fig. 3c), projected WI results indicate moderate have been also displayed. For the sake of brevity, our discus- confidence in these projections. On the other hand, new suit- sion will focus on the expected changes for the mid twenty- able regions for growing grape vine are expected to arise in first century under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. For the central Europe with a relatively low uncertainty (less than perspective of wine grape growers, this is likely the most 150 °C day in SD). interesting future period of the three, since it provides enough With regard to HI patterns (Table 2 and Fig. 4), a general time to adopt new strategies and management practices to face increase is also expected over Europe by the mid-century, the challenges imposed by climate change. In addition, especially over SEM. This implies a change in the clas- RCP8.5 is the most likely emissions pathway in the forthcom- sification of the potential grape variety of the region. ing decades, unless strict greenhouse gas mitigation policies For example, southern Portugal and northeastern and are implemented. central Spain will be off the Huglin scale (HI > 3000, According to our results, maximum summer temperature Fig. 4b) with high consensus among models (Fig. 4c). will generally increase by the mid twenty-first century, espe- Central-west Italy, which is classified as HI-2 in the cially in southern Europe and the Mediterranean (SEM; be- present (Fig. 4a), is expected to become a region HI + 1 by tween 2.7 and 4.3 °C; Fig. 1b). In most of the wine-producing the mid-century (Fig. 4b), with high agreement among models countries (France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal), this thermal given the low inter-model SD (less than 110 °C day, Fig. 4c). increase will be above the optimum growing temperature of However, high-quality areas are projected to significantly ex- 25 °C (Benacchio 1982). The low inter-model SD (less than tend northward, which is consistent with previous studies 1.1 °C; Fig. 1c) suggests that models project a similar change, (Malheiro et al. (2010), Fraga et al. (2013)). This extension which provides high certainty for this estimate. will be especially over southern England, Belgium, Germany, Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe 2303

a) b)

T MAX (°C) T MAX (°C) present future change 4 − 8 1.5 − 1.9 8 − 12 1.9 − 2.3 12 − 16 2.3 − 2.7 16 − 20 2.7 − 3.1 20 − 24 3.1 − 3.5 24 − 28 3.5 − 3.9 28 − 32 3.9 − 4.3 32 − 36 4.3 − 4.7 36 − 40 4.7 − 5.1 40 − 44 5.1 − 5.5

c)

Std. Dev. (°C) of change 0.4 − 0.6 0.6 − 0.8 0.8 − 1.1 1.1 − 1.2 1.2 − 1.4 1.4 − 1.7 1.7 − 2.0 2.0 − 2.3 2.3 − 2.6 2.6 − 2.9

Fig. 1 a Present observed mean maximum temperature in summer (1981–2005), b future change (multi-model mean, 2046–2070, RCP8.5), and c the inter-model standard deviation of the change (in °C)

Poland, and the Czech Republic (Fig. 4b). Indeed, southern project large decreases of precipitation in these regions (not England and northern Germany are currently very cool re- shown), which places high confidence in these results. In gions for growing grape wine (HI ≤ 1500, Fig. 4a) but they spring, when crops water requirements are higher, water avail- will become a region HI-2 (Fig. 4b). It is interesting to note ability could be affected due to the future decrease in precip- that similar results were also obtained for RCP4.5 scenario, itation (Camps and Ramos 2012). According to our results, although changes were not as large. (not shown). Spain, Portugal, and southern Italy will be exposed to the highest precipitation decreases during spring (down to − Water balance components 40%). The pattern of changes under the RCP4.5 scenario is very similar, but less pronounced (not shown). Concerning the water balance components, average annual With regard to RET, future crop evapotranspiration is precipitation is expected to decrease in SEM for the mid-cen- projected to strengthen over the entire domain, which would tury, while rainfall is supposed to increase in central and north- result in greater water demand. The most affected wine- ern Europe (CNE). The largest reductions are projected in producing countries by a RET increase will be Spain and southern Italy, the Balkan coast-lands, and central and south- Portugal (up to 18% in some scattered areas, Fig. 5c, d)with ern Spain (down to − 24%, Fig. 5), with high agreement across high confidence according to the low inter-model SD (not models (not shown). Positive changes in annual precipitation shown). In other countries such as France, Italy, or Germany, such as those projected in northern France and central Europe future changes show increases up to 12%. It must be noted that (up to 4 and 8% respectively) could be favorable for the cul- the vineyards with largest values of RET are located in south- tivation of wine grape. ern and northeastern Spain, Portugal, and the North of Italy There are regions, such as northern Spain, central Italy, and (between 330 and 410 mm, Fig. 5c). southern France, where spring and summer precipitation is Finally, it is worth noting that the only region with a neg- expected to considerably decrease (not shown), despite the ative water balance under present climate conditions is south- fact that annual rainfall will only reduce slightly. In fact, sum- eastern Spain, where it is close to − 100 mm (Fig. 5e). The mer will be notably drier in these areas and rainfall could future trends show a general decrease of WB for the SEM decrease as much as 40% by mid-century. Models consistently region and an increase in CNE. Specifically, Spain, Portugal, 2304 M. F. Cardell et al.

a) b)

T MEAN (°C) T MEAN (°C) present future change 0 − 3 1.5 − 1.8 3 − 6 1.8 − 2.1 6 − 9 2.1 − 2.4 9 − 12 2.4 − 2.7 12 − 15 2.7 − 3.0 15 − 18 3.0 − 3.3 18 − 21 3.3 − 3.6 21 − 24 3.6 − 3.9 24 − 27 3.9 − 4.2 27 − 30 4.2 − 4.5

c)

Std. Dev. (°C) of change 0.3 − 0.4 0.4 − 0.5 0.5 − 0.6 0.6 − 0.7 0.7 − 0.8 0.8 − 0.9 0.9 − 1.0 1.0 − 1.1 1.1 − 1.2 1.2 − 1.3

Fig. 2 a Present observed mean temperature during the ripening season (1981–2005), b future change (multi-model mean, 2046–2070, RCP8.5), and c the inter-model standard deviation of the change (in °C) south of Italy, the Balkan coast, and southern France will be during the ripening season. In Central and north-eastern exposed to the largest decreases in water balance (reductions Spain, some grape wine varieties as Tempranillo or up to − 300 mm are foreseen, Fig. 5f) due to a combination of , traditionally grown at temperatures of 17.5 and RET increases and substantial precipitation declines. This re- 18.2 °C respectively (Fig. 2a), will be exposed to thermal sult is consistent across models. In this context, only southern conditions exceeding its optimum during the growing season Spain will experience a negative water balance by the mid (more than 19 °C). However, countries of central Europe that twenty-first century (future WB not shown). currently have a colder GST (Germany, North France, and the Czech Republic; less than 16 °C; Fig. 2a) would reach favor- able thermal conditions for growing varieties of higher opti- Discussion mum mean temperature by the mid-century. The suitability of certain regions for growing grapevine The general increase projected for maximum temperatures could be affected due to changes in the Winkler classification. would negatively affect the growing cycle of the European According to our results, winemaking regions of recognized grapevines, especially in summer, when the development of prestige (La Rioja and Piemonte) will be less favorable for the fruit occurs. For instance, in SEM, the plant will be ex- high production and the quality of table wines might be re- posed during longer periods to temperatures that exceed the duced. Wine-producing areas in southern France (Bordeaux correct maturation threshold (e.g., more than 30 °C in south- and Montpellier) might also be affected, and they might be- ern France, Spain, Portugal, and Italy). Therefore, the quality come only suitable for extremely high production. However, of the grapevine would be lower, and the resulting fruit will the expected northward extension of the WI could create new have less aromas and a loss of pigments (Collins et al. (2006); favorable areas for growing grapevine in some countries of Downey et al. (2006)). A reduction in wine grape production central Europe (Germany, Belgium, Poland, southern is also expected in these regions due to its growth under severe England, etc.). thermal stress conditions (Moutinho-Pereira et al. 2004). In line with Fraga et al. (2013) findings, southern and west- Regarding the warming pattern of GST, Mediterranean ern Europe will experience a strong increase in HI by the mid- vineyards are projected to grow under higher temperatures century under the highest emission scenario. However, the Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe 2305

Table 2 Class groupings for the Huglin (HI) and Winkler (WI) indices defined in the Geoviticulture MCC System (Tonietto and Carbonneau 2004)and by Winkler (1974), respectively

Index Class name Class interval Grape variety

Huglin Index (HI) Very warm (HI + 3) HI > 3000 Possible, in certain cases, to have more than one harvest a year in intertropical . Warm (HI + 2) 2400 < HI ≤ 3000 Potential which exceeds the heliothermal needs to ripen the varieties (with some associated risks stress). Temperate warm (HI + 1) 2100 < HI ≤ 2400 Grenache, Carginan, Aramon, Tempranillo, and Mourvdre can ripen. Temperate (HI-1) 1800 < HI ≤ 2100 Later varieties such as Cabernet-Sauvignon Ugni blanc and can reach maturity. Cool (HI-2) 1500 < HI ≤ 1800 Allow a very large range of grape varieties to ripen (white or red): Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Cabernet France, etc. Very cool (HI-3) HI ≤ 1500 Only the very early/early varieties can reach maturity (e.g., , Gewurztraminer) Index Region °C day General ripening capability and wine style (regions of Europe) Winklerindex(WI) Toocold <1111 Onlyveryearlyripeningvarietiesachievehighqualitymostlyhybridgrape varieties and some V. vinifera. Region I 1111–1389 Only early ripening varieties achieve high quality mostly varieties and some V. Vinifera (e.g., Chablis, ) Region II 1389–1667 Early and mid-season table wine varieties (TWV) produce good quality wines (e.g., Alsace, Bordeaux). Region III 1667–1944 Favorable for high production of standard to good quality table wines (e.g., Piemonte, Rioja). Region IV 1944–2222 Favorable for high production, but acceptable table wine quality at best (e.g., Montpellier). Region V 2222–2500 Typically only suitable for extremely high production, fair quality table wines, or TWV destined for early season consumption are grown (e.g., Greek Islands, Sicily, Jerez). Region VI 2500–2778 Only suitable for extremely high production. Too warm > 2778 No suitable for vitis production.

expected increase in SEM would be notably higher after The average annual precipitation is projected to decrease correcting RCM biases with the Q-Q adjustment, hence these in SEM and increase in CNE according to the analysis of the regions will be classified higher in the scale. Some world- water balance components. Mediterranean vineyards tolerate renowned wine-producing areas (southern Portugal, north- certain levels of drought thanks to their deep root sys- eastern, and central Spain) will be very warm for wine-grape tems.However,asubstantialprecipitation decrease dur- production, which will affect typical grape varieties such as ing the ripening season may cause an important reduc- Tempranillo and Grenache (Table 2). Likewise, vineyards of tion in water availability during the growth and matura- central-west Italy—typically ripen in the cool region (HI-2)— tion periods. For current winemaking regions of Spain, would have to be grown in a temperate-to-warm climate (HI- Portugal, and southern Italy, a severe precipitation re- 1). This fact could have an influence on the wine-producing duction in spring would be a limiting factor for the potential of Merlot or Chardonnay varieties. The adoption of vineyards growth. In addition, one of the main effects adequate oenological techniques, changes in soil as well as of climate change is a reduction in the number of rainy genetic breeding would be necessary in these regions to adapt days in SEM and central Europe (Cardell et al. 2019) to such temperature changes. However, the projected warming and an increase in the frequency of extreme precipita- over Europe (Christensen 2007) also leads to a significant tion events. For heavy precipitation directly affecting northward displacement of the high-quality areas towards cen- vineyards, this could entail a higher risk of erosion by tral and northern countries, in line with the WI results. For runoff, since they are very often cultivated in vulnerable example, southern England and northern Germany are areas such as hill slopes. projected to be suitable for a wide range of grape varieties Water requirements might be increased not only by the (Tonietto and Carbonneau et al. 2004) as Chardonnay, Pinot precipitation decrease, but also by higher rates of evapotrans- noir, or , among others. (Table 2). piration in a warmer climate. In fact, the expected enhanced 2306 M. F. Cardell et al.

a) b)

Winkler Index Winkler Index (°C day) (°C day) present future < 1111 < 1111 1111 − 1389 1111 − 1389 1389 − 1667 1389 − 1667 1667 − 1944 1667 − 1944 1944 − 2222 1944 − 2222 2222 − 2500 2222 − 2500 2500 − 2778 2500 − 2778 > 2778 > 2778

c)

Std. Dev. (°C day) of future 0 − 30 30 − 60 60 − 90 90 − 120 120 − 150 150 − 180 180 − 210 210 − 240 240 − 270 270 − 300

Fig. 3 a Present observed Winkler Index (in °C day, 1981–2005), b future projected (2046–2070, RCP8.5), and c the inter-model standard deviation (in °C day)

a) b)

Huglin Index Huglin Index (°C day) (°C day) present future HI ≤ 1500 HI ≤ 1500 1500 − 1800 1500 − 1800 1800 − 2100 1800 − 2100 2100 − 2400 2100 − 2400 2400 − 3000 2400 − 3000 HI > 3000 HI > 3000

c)

Std. Dev. (°C day) of future 70 − 90 90 − 110 110 − 130 130 − 150 150 − 170 170 − 190 190 − 210 210 − 230 230 − 250 250 − 270

Fig. 4 a Present observed Huglin Index (1981–2005), b future projected (2046–2070, RCP8.5), and (c) the inter-model standard deviation (in °C day) Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe 2307

a) b)

Precip. (mm) Precip. (%) present future change 0 − 300 −40, −32 300 − 600 −32, −24 600 − 900 −24, −16 900 − 1200 −16, −8 1200 − 1500 −8, 0 1500 − 1800 0, 4 1800 − 2100 4, 8 2100 − 2400 8, 12 2400 − 2700 12, 16 2700 − 3000 16, 20

c) d)

RET (mm) RET (%) present future change 170 − 210 −30, −24 210 − 250 −24, −18 250 − 290 −18, −12 290 − 330 −12, −6 330 − 370 −6, 0 370 − 410 0, 6 410 − 450 6, 12 450 − 490 12, 18 490 − 530 18, 24 530 − 570 24, 30

e) f)

WB (mm) WB (mm) present future change −500, −400 −300, −240 −400, −300 −240, −180 −300, −200 −180, −120 −200, −100 −120, −60 −100, 0 −60, 0 0, 600 0, 60 600, 1200 60, 120 1200, 1800 120, 180 1800, 2400 180, 240 2400, 3000 240, 300

Fig. 5 a Present observed mean annual precipitation (in mm) and b future absolute change (in mm). Note that present corresponds to 1981–2005 relative change (in %); c present observed mean annual real and future to 2046–2070. All changes are expressed as the multi-model evapotranspiration (in mm) and d future relative change (in %); e mean and for the RCP8.5 present observed mean annual water balance (in mm); and (f) future crop RET over all the domain would lead to greater water not shown). In fact, Moriondo et al. (2013) have already point- demands in some regions. The wine-producing areas that will ed out that the highest deficits would take place in southern be most affected by a RET increase are countries with already Spain. The rate of perspiration and heat dissipation high RET in the present (northeastern Spain, southern would be also affected, and they will result in higher Portugal, and northern Italy). Furthermore, WB is expected leaf temperatures (Hsiao 1973). Management techniques to decrease in SEM and increase in CNE. The combined in- based on crop irrigation and improvement of water use crease in evapotranspiration and decline in precipitation would efficiency are necessary to secure a sustainable viticul- imply significant yield reductions (Camps and Ramos 2012)in ture in these regions (Flexas et al. 2010). By contrast, Spain, Portugal, southern Italy, the Balkan coast, and southern the gains from enhanced rainfall exceed the increase of France. In this context, southern Spain will experience a soil moisture losses via RET in the CNE region, and it negative water balance by mid twenty-first century (future WB will thus result in a higher water balance surplus. 2308 M. F. Cardell et al.

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