Regional Environmental Change (2019) 19:2299–2310 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01502-x ORIGINAL ARTICLE Future effects of climate change on the suitability of wine grape production across Europe M. F. Cardell1 & A. Amengual1 & R. Romero1 Received: 29 November 2018 /Accepted: 20 April 2019 /Published online: 4 May 2019 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019 Abstract Climate directly influences the suitability of wine grape production. Modified patterns of temperature and precipitation due to climate change will likely affect this relevant socio-economic sector across Europe. In this study, prospects on the future of bioclimatic indices linked to viticultural zoning are derived from observed and projected daily meteorological data. Specifically, daily series of precipitation and 2-m maximum and minimum temperatures from the E-OBS data-set have been used as the regional observed baseline. Regarding projections, a suite of regional climate models (RCMs) from the European CORDEX project have been used to create projections of these variables under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future emission scenarios. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the simulated regional scenarios to properly project the RCM data at local scale. Our results suggest that wine grape growing will be negatively affected in southern Europe. We expect a reduction in table quality vines and wine grape production in this region due to a future increase in the cumulative thermal stress and dryness during the growing season. Furthermore, the projected precipitation decrease, and higher rates of evapotranspiration due to a warmer climate will likely increase water requirements. On the other hand, high-quality areas for viticulture will significantly extend northward in western and central Europe. The suitability zoning for the mid-century derived from this study could contribute to better design new strategies and management practices that would benefit the European winemaking sector. Keywords Climate change . Europe . Bioclimatic indices . Wine grape production Introduction global distribution, its growth and wine quality (Van Leeuwen et al. (2004); Jones (2006); Santos et al. (2011)). European wine production represents more than 70% of the Grapevine is one of the most sensitive crops to climate world total, and it is a sector of great relevance for the envi- modifications, so that it needs a basal temperature of 10 °C ronment, society, and economy across the continent. for its growing cycle (Amerine et al. (1944); Winkler (1974)). According to the State of the Vitiviniculture World Market Adequate solar radiation is also required for its correct devel- 2018 (http://www.oiv.int), Europe vineyards account for opment (e.g., Magalhães (2008)). Vineyards are traditionally approximately 52.7% of the total vine cultivation areas grown in areas where the average temperature during the rip- worldwide. They are especially predominant in the ening season (April–October for the Northern Hemisphere) is Mediterranean region, particularly in Spain, France, and between 12 and 22 °C (Jones 2006). This optimum tempera- Italy. Several studies analyze the effects of climate change in ture is different for each grape variety: 15.0 °C for Pinot Noir, viticulture, since climate plays an important role in grape wine 15.5 °C for Chardonnay, 17.2 °C for Cavernet Franc, 17.5 °C for Tempranillo, 18.0 °C for Merlot, 18.2 °C for Garnacha. In addition, the thermal optimum for the development of the fruit This article is part of the Topical Collection on Climate change impacts in in summer is within the 20–30 °C range. High temperatures the Mediterranean during the ripening season contribute to obtain a fruit with less aromas and a loss of pigments, such as lycopene (Collins et al. * M. F. Cardell [email protected] 2006). The plant photosynthetic system can be negatively af- fected by a prolonged exposure to extreme hot temperatures 1 (e.g., above 40 °C, Berry and Bjorkman (1980)). Department de Física, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Consequently, high temperatures can compromise grape vine 07122 Palma, Spain 2300 M. F. Cardell et al. productivity and quality (Kliewer (1977); Mullins et al. The assessment of regional and local impacts on grapevine (1992)). Grapevines have the capacity to tolerate temperatures cultivation requires future projections of the climate variables as low as 15–20 °C below zero during the early stages of described above. Here, we obtained future projections of these growth (Hidalgo 2002). However, its production is especially variables under different future emission scenarios from vulnerable to frost during spring, which could irreversibly Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the European damage the vineyard (Spellman 1999). CORDEX project. This work analyzes the future effects of Projected changes over Europe under high emission scenarios climate change on the suitability of European regions for wine (A1B, Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES); grape growing, using RCMs outputs that were corrected with Nakicenovic et al. (2000) and the RCP8.5, Representative a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) adjustment method. Applying this Concentration Pathways scenarios; Moss et al. (2008)) indicate adjustment method to model projections brings novelty over an average warming between 2.5 and 5.5 °C by the end of the existing impact studies and provides greater concordance be- twenty-first century, with higher warming rates in southern re- tween the input climate data and the local climate conditions gions and towards the northeast (Christensen and Christensen (Cardell et al. 2019). Model outputs suffer from systematic (2007); Jacob et al. (2014)). Additionally, temperature extremes errors arising from different sources (e.g., still too coarse spa- are also projected to increase (Andrade et al. 2012). Mean annual tial resolution, simple parametrizations, uncertainties in the precipitation is expected to decrease in most of southern Europe boundary forcing), and it is advised to calibrate them before and to increase in northern regions (Meehl et al. (2007); Jacob their use in impact studies. Correction approaches such as the et al. (2014); Cardell et al. (2019)). Although grapevine is rela- delta-change method or un-biasing procedures assume that the tively resistant to drought thanks to its deep roots, it can be variability in the climate scenario remains unchanged and is adversely affected by severe dryness (Koundouras et al. perfect, respectively (Déqué (2007), Ho et al. (2012)). The (1999);DosSantosetal.(2003)). Therefore, the projected future quantile-quantile mapping approach applied here is more flex- climate change can modify the conditions favorable for the ible in this regard. Quantile adjustments have been widely growth of vine in the current winemaking regions and lead to used before because they adjust not only the mean and vari- the appearance of new potential wine producing areas. ance but also the quantiles of the variable of interest (Boé et al. A wide range of bioclimatic indices has been proposed to (2007), Amengual et al. (2012), Tramblay et al. (2013), assess the suitability of a given region for growing grape wine, Ivanov and Kotlarski (2017), etc). In this study, the suitability which include different climate variables that affect the plant of a region for wine production is measured through various growth and development. For instance, the average growing bioclimatic indices and climate variables obtained from an season temperature index (GST), which measures the average ensemble of 14 RCM simulations from the EURO- temperature during the ripening season (Jones et al. 2010). The CORDEX project (Jacob et al. 2014). Prior to calculating vulnerability of vineyards to severe thermal stress makes it also the bioclimatic indices, the quantile-quantile adjustment de- necessary to consider maximum temperatures during spring scribed in Cardell et al. (2019) is applied to the cumulative and summer. Additionally, enhanced plant evapotranspiration distribution functions (CDFs) of daily minimum, maximum due to higher temperatures results in increased water demand temperature and accumulated precipitation from each individ- for its cultivation. Therefore, previous studies have analyzed ual RCM. not only future precipitation amounts, but also the real evapo- The structure of the paper is as follows: the “Database and transpiration (e.g., Camps and Ramos (2012)) and the projected methods” section introduces the observed and simulated data- changes in the water balance (Moriondo et al. 2013). The bases, the empirical correction method, and the bioclimatic Winkler and Huglin indices (WI, Winkler (1974) and HI, indices used; the “Results” section presents the projected Huglin (1978), respectively) are heat accumulation or degree- changes for the parameters of interest; the main results are day indices commonly used in viticulture zoning studies (e.g., discussed in the “Discussion” section; finally, the Jones et al. (2010); Malheiro et al. (2010); Fraga et al. (2013); “Conclusions and further remarks” section describes the main Fraga et al. (2017); Teslic et al. (2018), etc.). Other factors that conclusions and offers some additional remarks for future may restrict the viability of viticulture –particularly at the limits work. of the cultivation suitability areas– would be high levels of precipitation or frost occurrences during the blooming season (Mosedale et al. (2015); Nesbitt et al. (2018)) and the possible Database and methods climate-driven