CLIMATE MODELLING AT VINEYARD SCALE IN A CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT Page | 1 Page | 2 CLIMATE MODELLING AT VINEYARD SCALE IN A CLIMATE CHANGE CONTEXT COORDINATORS Kees van Leeeuwen1 Laure de Rességuier1 Valérie Bonnardot2 Hervé Quénol2 AUTHORS Renan Le Roux2 Etienne Neethling3 Théo Petitjean1 Liviu Irimia4 Cristi Valeriu Patriche4,5 1UMR1287 EGFV, Bordeaux Science Agro/INRA, ISVV, 210 Chemin de Leysotte, F-33883 Villenave d'Ornon (France) 2UMR6554 LETG-Rennes, CNRS, Université Rennes 2, Place du recteur Henri le Moal, 35043 Rennes (France) 3UR-GRAPPE, ESA, 55 rue Rabelais, 49007 Angers (France) 4 University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine, Iași, (Romania) 5 Romanian Academy, Iaşi Branch, Geography Group, (Romania) With the collaboration of G. Santesteban (UPN), S. Roger (ESA), M. Hofmann (HGU), M. Stoll (HGU), C. Foss (PC), C. Cortiula (PC) http://www.adviclim.eu/ Copyright © LIFE ADVICLIM With the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Union Under the contract number: LIFE13 ENVFR/001512 Page | 3 Page | 4 Table of contents FOREWORD 7 INTRODUCTION 9 Part 1: General understanding of climate change modelling at vineyard 11 scale Climate Change Scenarios modelling 12 Climate change modelling: from global to local scale 13 Climate change modelling and viticulture 14 Methodology developed in the ADVICLIM project 16 Bibliography 17 Part 2: Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of 19 climate change in wine regions of LIFE-ADVICLIM project Part 3: Regional approach of climate change modelling 24 Part 4: Climate modelling at vineyards scale in a climate change 27 context Huglin and Winkler indices 28 Grapevine Flowering Veraison model (GFV) 34 Page | 5 Page | 6 FOREWORD Across the earth, there is growing evidence adaptation and mitigation strategies. The that a global climate change is taking place. measurement network and web platform of Observed regional changes include rising this project seeks to inform and assist temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns winegrowers on climate change impacts, on and extreme weather events. Over the next rational adaptation scenarios and on century, climate changes are expected to greenhouse gas emissions related to their continue and have important consequences practices at the scale of their vineyard plots. on viticulture. They vary from short-term These technologies are evaluated in many impacts on wine quality and style, to long- European wine growing regions (Figure 1), term issues such as varietal suitability and namely Bordeaux and Loire Valley (France), the economic sustainability of traditional Sussex (England), Rheingau (Germany) and wine producing areas. As a result, the wine Cotnari (Romania). The region of Navarra industry is facing many challenges, which (Ausejo and Carbonera vineyards) in Spain is includes adapting to these potential a non-official study area. These six regions impacts, as well as reducing greenhouse gas represent the climatic diversity of European emissions related to their activities. wine, ranging from the Mediterranean to In response to these challenges, the LIFE- Oceanic and Continental climates. ADVICLIM project has the objective to For more information on this project, visit evaluate and develop local climate change www.adviclim.eu Figure 1: Position of the six European wine growing regions that are studied in the LIFE-ADVICLIM project. Page | 7 Page | 8 INTRODUCTION For most wine growing regions, significant trends in regional climates have been observed. At the same time, important changes in grapevine phenology and grape composition have occurred, with the latter leading to altered alcohol levels and sensory profiles. Although changes in grapevine behaviour are partly attributed to evolving practices, recent climate changes, in particular increasing temperatures, have been major causal factors. As a result, future climate changes are very likely to have key effects on wine quality and style, which over the long term may cause geographical shifts in suitable grapevine varieties and production areas. A changing climate is therefore one of the major environmental and socio- economic issues facing sustainable viticultural development and production over the next century. Various studies on vine’s climate adaptability under different climate change scenarios show that we can expect major upheavals at global level, with the disappearance of some wine- growing regions by 2100. These studies, based specifically on climate simulation, propose fairly “brutal” methods to adapt to climate change, for instance moving wine-growing regions or changing varietals. Studies on the impact of climate change only cover major global wine regions, however, without taking into account the spatial variability of climate on finer scales. However, atmospheric parameters at the level of the boundary layer depend on surface conditions (surface roughness and type), and these can cause significant spatial variability in relatively small areas (from a few square metres to a few square kilometres). A wine’s specific features are determined by these fine-scale variations (e.g. slope, exposure, type of soil, etc.), and it is at the scale of the plot that winemakers manage their estate and adapt to the climate, notably by agricultural practices (tillage, work on the vine, etc.). The spatial variability of climate at local scale should therefore be taken into account when defining a rational climate change adaptation policy (Quénol et al, 2014). Page | 9 The manual is divided into four parts: The first part provides a general introduction to climate change modelling in viticulture sector. The objective is to PART 1: present the methodology developed to build agro-climatic models adapted to the scale of the LIFE-ADVICLIM project vineyards. PART 2: The second part aims to present climate change over the past 60 years in the regions of each pilot site. The calculation of specific indicators for vines and wine has enabled the recent climate change at the level of European vineyards of the LIFE- ADVICLIM project to be analysed. PART 3: This part provides the modelling of bioclimatic indices from the outputs of regional climate change models (EuroCordex data). These maps were produced for the future periods 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 in comparison with a 1986-2005 reference period for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. PART 4: The fourth part aims to present a fine-scale mapping of projected bioclimatic indices and phenological modelling according to climatic change scenarios (RCP4.5 a,d RCP8.5) by 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 at the scale of each LIFE-ADVICLIM pilot site. Page | 10 PART 1: CLIMATE CHANGE MODELLING IN VITICULTURE SECTOR Climate Change Scenarios modelling Since climate change and its effects are already perceptible, climate projections are needed to understand the expected impacts and help inform adaptation planning and policy. To perceive future climate changes, projections of greenhouse gas emissions vary over a wide range, depending on both socio-economic development and climate policies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed the future evolution of variables controlling climatic conditions; especially the evolution of the greenhouse gases due to human activities according to different socio-economic scenarios. These studies showed different climate evolution for Earth. The latest scenarios on greenhouse gases are the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and replace the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios). These scenarios are issued from an international project gathering 30 climatic centres: the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Inter comparison Project) aiming to assess Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the next decades. Four main scenarios were kept (IPCC, 2014) (figure 1): Figure 1. Framework and projections of future climate models. source: Moss et al, 2010 and IPCC, 2013 Page | 11 REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS • RCP 8.5: This RCP is consistent with a future with no policy changes to reduce emissions. It was developed by the International Institute for Applied System Analysis in Austria and is characterised by increasing greenhouse gas emissions that lead to high greenhouse gas concentrations over time. • RCP 6.0: There is a raise of greenhouse gases emissions until the 2080’s followed by a decrease. • RCP 4.5: same as RCP 6.0 but the decrease starts around the 2040’s. • RCP 2.5: This RCP is consistent with a future with policy changes to reduce emissions and is characterised by decreasing greenhouse gas emissions that lead to limit the warming to 2°C by 2100. Climate change modelling: from global to local scale The adaptation of viticulture to climate change is crucial and should be based on simulations of future climate. Different types of model exist to represent climate on Earth at various scales. At the global scale, General Circulation Models (GCMs) are mainly used as the basis to build climate change scenarii that estimate trends in climate variables like temperature, rainfall and wind globally, at low spatial resolution (~300 km). Obviously, these kinds of models are not suitable for considering temperature variability at vineyard scale. The global climate models do not have a fine enough resolution for wine-growing region or vineyard scale impact studies. This is why many studies are attempting to create models able to disaggregate the overall climate signal at regional scales. Regional circulation models of the atmosphere, or mesoscale models, can represent finer