Gulfstream Market Update Q4 • 2018
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LOS ANGELES | NEWPORT BEACH | WEST PALM BEACH | CHICAGO | EUROPE GULFSTREAM MARKET UPDATE Q4 • 2018 2018 continued its upward trend and ended the year with both new and used deliveries and orders up Quarter 4 over 2017. However, the big-bang Q4, that so many projected, seemed to be over by mid-November aided by an increasingly caustic political environment, slowing GDP (worldwide), wild stock market 2018 gyrations and finally the threat of a Government shut down that materialized by the end of the Qtr. It wasn’t a bad quarter, it just wasn’t a great quarter as buyer caution outweighed the tax benefit fueled Gulfstream G200 2 activity, which we began seeing in Q2 & Q3. The caution was also evident in aircraft activity which on a Gulfstream G280 3 whole was down 0.5% Year over Year according to flight tracking data from Argus International. Gulfstream GIV-SP 4 The future remains exciting nonetheless. We saw new certifications in 2018 of the G500 and Global Gulfstream G450 5 7500. 2019 will celebrate more exciting aircraft with the G600, Global 5500/6500 and Embraer Praetor 400/500 all due for certification. We expect 2019 to be a tougher growth year as new models will be in Gulfstream GV 6 low ramp up production rates and the inventory of later model pre-owned aircraft remain low. Gulfstream G550 7 How does this affect the Gulfstream pre-owned market? Q4-18 saw a nice jump in activity for both Gulfstream G650 8 pre-owned and new sales, with an 18% and 63% rise respectively. The G500 is now in service and in the Gulfstream G650ER 9 hands of customers both domestically and abroad, and the G600 should be entering service later this year. Owners can look forward to the impressive speed capabilities of both aircraft combined with the legendary Gulfstream cabins. Across the pre-owned market, inventory levels rose roughly 4%, with all tracked models remaining below 10% of the fleet for sale. GIV-SP’s and G450’s saw an amazing year for pre-owned sales, while the newer and larger G650 and G650ER’s slowed down to round out the year. Mark Bloomer Brant Dahlfors JetTransactions ...at a higher level. www.JetTransactions.com 1 JetTransactions ...at a higher level. G200 MARKET UPDATE Q4 • 2018 Market Summary Current Market Market History 24 MONTH AVERAGE While 2017 proved to be a record setter for the ERPE Currently for Sale 24 Inventory High 34 G200 pre-owned market, 2018 still saw an active year for the model with over 13% of the fleet Ask Price Range $2.3M - $6.5M Inventory Low 17 trading by year’s end. Average ask prices rose for the quarter above $4M again, though available % of Active Fleet 9.8% Avg. Sales Price $4.1M inventory began crowding a bit more with 24 SI units or 9.8% of the fleet for sale. DaysR on MERI In Operation 244 Avg. Ask Price $4.5M Market also increased, with newer inventory and NextGen equipped aircraft moving the quickest. Avg. Days on Market 327 NorthEI American Sales 81% S MERIERPE RI 1 2 SI G200 R MERI BasedBSED Locations IS 3 1 18 28 EI For Sale Pre-wned Sold G200G200G200 4 - 2018 IN LAST 12 MONTHS 0 0 S MERI RI 2 1 AVG PRE-OWNEDAVGAVG PRE-OWNED PRE-OWNED FOR SALE FOR FOR SALE SALE AVG PRE-OWNEDAVG0 AVG 1PRE-OWNED PRE-OWNED SOLD SOLD SOLD AVG ASK AVGPRICEAVG ASK ASK PRICE PRICE Q2-2016 Q2-2016- Q2-2016Q1-2018 - Q1-2018- Q1-2018 FOR SALEFOR Q2-2016FOR SALE SALE Q2-2016- Q2-2016Q1-2018 - Q1-2018- Q1-2018 IN MILLIONSININ MILLIONS MILLIONS BSED IS Avg Pre-Owned For Sale Pre-Owned Sold Avg Ask Price in Millions 50 5050 20 2020 6 6 6 For Sale Pre-wned Sold 1 - 2018 IN LAST 12 MONTHS 5.0 5.0 40 4040 5 5 5 5.0 15 1515 4.3 4.34.3 4 4 4 0 00 10 1010 3 3 3 20 2020 2 2 2 5 5 5 10 1010 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 0 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 0 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 0 1 - 171 - 17 2 - 172 - 17 3 - 173 - 17 4 - 174 - 17 1 - 181 - 18 2 - 182 - 18 3 - 183 - 18 4 - 184 - 18 www.JetTransactions.com 50 5050 20 2020 2 6 6 6 5 5 5 40 4040 15 1515 4 4 4 30 3030 10 1010 3 3 3 20 2020 2 2 2 5 5 5 10 1010 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 2 - 182 3- 18 - 183 4- 18 - 184 - 18 2 - 182 - 183 - 1834 - 18 - 184 - 18 3 - 183 -4 18 - 184 - 18 G280 MARKET UPDATE Q4 • 2018 Market Summary Current Market Market History 24 MONTH AVERAGE New unit deliveries set a two-year record for the Currently for Sale ERPE2 Inventory High 6 G280, proving its continued popularity in the super mid-size category. On the pre-owned side, the two- Ask Price Range $15.9M - $17.3M Inventory Low 1 year Average Sold and Ask Price both rose 1.3% respectively, while Days on Market dropped by over % of Active Fleet 1.3% Avg. Sales Price $15.3M 31% to 193. Gulfstream customers love the G280 SI for its performance and range capabilities, and we In Operation 154 Avg. Ask Price $16.1M R MERI see continued brand loyalty as a plus for Gulfstream moving into the new year. Avg. Days on Market 193 NorthEI American Sales 80% ERPE S MERI 0 1 2 RI SI G280 R MERI Based Locations 0 2 0 BSED IS 2 17 5 EI For Sale Factory-New Sold Pre-wned Sold G280G280G280 4 - 2018 IN LAST 12 MONTHS S MERI 0 0 0 RI 0 1 0 0 0 0 AVG PRE-OWNEDAVGAVG PRE-OWNED PRE-OWNED FOR SALE FOR FOR SALE SALE AVG PRE-OWNEDAVGAVG PRE-OWNED PRE-OWNED SOLD SOLD SOLD AVG ASKAVG AVGPRICE ASK ASK PRICE PRICE Q2-2016Q2-2016 Q2-2016- Q1-2018 - Q1-2018 - Q1-2018 FOR SALEFORFOR Q2-2016 SALE SALE Q2-2016 Q2-2016- Q1-2018 - Q1-2018 - Q1-2018 IN MILLIONSININ MILLIONS MILLIONS BSED IS Avg Pre-Owned For Sale Pre-Owned & New Sold Avg Ask Price in Millions 6 6 6 15 1515 For Sale Factory-NewNew Sold Pre-wned Sold 20 2020 (1 - 2018) (IN LAST 12 MONTHS) Pre-Owned 5 5 5 16.5 16.516.5 12 1212 15.3 15.3 15 151515.3 4 4 4 9 9 9 3 3 3 10 1010 6 6 6 2 2 2 5 5 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 1 4- 17 - 17 2 1- 17 - 18 3 2- 17 - 18 4 3- 17 - 18 1 4- 18 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 14 - 17 - 17 21 - 17 - 18 3 - 217 - 18 4 - 317 - 18 1 - 184 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 -1 17 - 17 14 - 17 -2 17 - 17 21 - 17 -3 18 - 17 3 2- 17 -4 18 - 17 43 - 17 -1 18 - 18 1 4- 18 -2 18 - 18 2 - 183 - 18 3 - 184 - 18 4 - 18 www.JetTransactions.com 3 6 6 6 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 5 5 5 12 12 12 12 12 12 15 15 15 4 4 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 3 3 3 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 2 2 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 2 - 18 23 - - 18 18 34 -- 1818 4 - 18 2 - 16 3 - 16 4 - 16 1 - 17 22 - 17 - 16 33 - 17 - 16 44 - 17 - 16 11 - 18 - 17 22 - 18 - 17 33 - 18 - 17 44 - 18 - 17 1 - 18 3 - 18 4 - 18 2 - 16 3 - 16 4 - 16 1 - 17 2 2- 17 - 163 3- 17 - 164 4- 17 - 161 1- 18 - 172 2- 18 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 2 - 16 3 - 16 4 - 16 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 17 4 - 17 1 - 18 2 - 18 23 - -18 18 4 - 18 2 - 16 3 - 16 4 - 16 1 - 17 2 - 17 3 - 173 - 418 - 174 - 118 - 18 2 - 18 3 - 18 34 - -18 18 4 - 18 PRE-OWNEDPRE-OWNEDPRE-OWNED SOLD SOLD SOLD NEW SOLDNEWNEW SOLD SOLD keep samekeepkeep axis same same value axis axis and value value stack and and stack stack GIVSP MARKET UPDATE Q4 • 2018 Market Summary Current Market Market History 24 MONTH AVERAGE It’s unlikely anyone could have imagined the year ERPE Currently for Sale 21 Inventory High 43 to be as good as it was for the GIV-SP market; an astonishing 40 units transacted this year, and some Ask Price Range $1.3M - $6.3M Inventory Low 21 of that heightened activity will likely rollover into 2019.