A Quantitative and Qualitative Study of the Impact of Swedish Foreign Aid on the Palestinian Economy

STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY Department of Economic History and International Relations Master's Thesis in International Relations with specialization in Global Political Economy Spring Term 2021

Student: Waris Miratif Supervisor: Jonathan Michael Feldman

A Quantitative and Qualitative Study of The Impact of Swedish Foreign Aid on the Palestinian Economy

Keywords: Aid Effectiveness, Economic Growth, Two-Gap Model, Corruption, Occupation

Abstract

This thesis contributes to the scholarship on aid effectiveness by evaluating the economic impact of Swedish foreign aid on the Palestinian economy (GDP) from 1999 to 2019. Econometric approaches have often been used in previous studies to assess aid effectiveness, but they are not sufficient for establishing clear conclusions, especially in a unique conflict- affected economy such as Palestine. Therefore, this study combines a mixed methods research approach involving qualitative and quantitative approaches. The primary research question is: “To what extent has Swedish foreign aid significantly contributed to the Palestinian economy during the past two decades from 1999-2019?” Two sub-questions follow the main research question: “To what extent has aid effectiveness in Palestine been affected by corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation during the past two decades. The thesis uses a two-gap model of the economic growth theory by employing different techniques like inferential and descriptive statistics (quantitative research) followed by a content analysis and interviews (qualitative research) to answer the research questions. Results from the descriptive and inferential statistics and the content analysis show that Swedish aid positively affects the Palestinian economy but is limited by countervailing factors. The effectiveness of aid is constrained by the Israeli occupation and corruption in the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Acknowledgements

First and foremost, I want to thank the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Department of Economic History and International Relations at Stockholm University for giving me the opportunity to travel to Palestine and Israel and conduct fieldwork through Minor Field Study (MFS) scholarship program. I am truly grateful for the unique experience and would thank all the interviewees who participated in this study.

I want to thank my supervisor, Jonathan M. Feldman, for the guidance and inspiration he has provided me during this entire process. Last but not least, I wish to thank Fia Sundeval, the convener and main teacher of the master thesis course, for her guidance and instructions throughout this course.

iii

Abbreviations and Acronyms

CA Civil Administration DAC Development Assistance Cooperation DoP Declaration of Principles EU European Union FBA Folke Bernadotteakademin (Swedish Agency for Peace, Security and Development) FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund LDCs Least Developed Countries NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NIS New Israeli Shekel ODA Official Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OLS Ordinary Least Squares PA Palestinian Authority PCBS Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics PLO Palestinian Liberation Organization PMA Palestinian Monetary Authority SI Swedish Institute Sida Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SMEs Small Medium Enterprises UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development USD United States Dollar UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East WB World Bank WBGS West Bank and Gaza Strip

Table of Contents

Abstract...... ii Acknowledgements ...... iii Abbreviations and Acronyms ...... iv Table of Contents...... v 1. Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Overview ...... 1 1.2 Need for the Study ...... 1 1.3 Statement of the Problem ...... 2 1.4 Objectives of the Study ...... 3 1.5 Organization of the Thesis ...... 3 2 Background ...... 4 2.1 Overview ...... 4 2.2 Background on Foreign Aid to Palestine ...... 5 2.3 Swedish Development Cooperation with Palestine ...... 7 3 Literature Review and Theoretical Framework ...... 11 3.1 Introduction ...... 11 3.2 Literature Review ...... 11 3.3 Theorizing the Dependent Variable ...... 15 3.4 Theorizing Foreign Aid’s Contribution in a Palestinian Context ...... 17 3.5 Theorizing Corruption and Israeli Occupation ...... 17 3.6 Summary ...... 18 4 Methodology ...... 20 4.1 Introduction ...... 20 4.2 From Theory to Method ...... 20 4.3 Research Strategy ...... 21 4.4 Quantitative and Quantitative Research and Sources ...... 21 5. Empirical Section I ...... 26 5.1 Quantitative Analysis – (Stage I) ...... 26 5.2 Summary ...... 30 6. Empirical Section II...... 30 6.1 Qualitative Analysis – (Stage II) ...... 30 6.2 Qualitative Analysis – (Stage III) ...... 37 7. Conclusions...... 47 7.1 Introduction ...... 47 7.2 Swedish Foreign Aid ...... 48 7.3 Corruption ...... 49 7.4 The Israeli Occupation ...... 49

7.5 Summary ...... 50 7.6 Future Research ...... 50 8. References ...... 50 Appendix 1 ...... 55 Appendix 2 ...... 61 Appendix 3 ...... 66 Appendix 4 ...... 69 List of Tables:

Table 1: Swedish Granting Agencies ...... 10 Table 2: Components of a Theory and Measures (Quantitative Part) ...... 19 Table 3: Linking Factors and Measures (Qualitative Part) ...... 19 Table 4: Summary of Relevant Factors and Variables ...... 19 Table 5: List of the Informants Interviewed ...... 25 Table 6: Swedish Aid and GDP Figures of Palestine ...... 27 Table 7: Summary Statistics ...... 29 Table 8: Correlation Coefficient for Swedish Aid and Palestinian GDP ...... 29 Table 9: Correlation Coefficient and the Critical Value at 19 Degrees of Freedom ...... 29 Table 10: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from OmVärlden …………………….…….34 Table 11: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Dagens Nyheter (DN)………………..35 Table 12: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Göteborgs-Posten (GP)…………...….36 Table 13: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from OmVärlden…………………………...39 Table 14: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Dagens Nyheter (DN)………………...40 Table 15: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Göteborgs-Posten (GP)………………41 Table 16: General Conclusions of the Thesis ...... 50

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Palestine Unemployment Rate ...... 8 Figure 2: Foreign Aid to Palestine Per Capita (Current USD) ...... 8 Figure 3: Sweden’s Aid to Palestine Per Capita (USD in million) ...... 8 Figure 4: Swedish Aid to Palestine ...... 28 Figure 5: Palestinian GDP ...... 28 Figure 6: Swedish Aid to Palestine ...... 28 Figure 7: Palestinian GDP ...... 29 Figure 8: Theory, Factor and Measure (Deductive Approach)……………………………………………..……32 Figure 9: Impact of Swedish Aid on the Palestinian Economy - OmVärlden, DN and GP Combined ……...….36 Figure 10: Measure, Factor and Theory (Inductive Approach)………………………………………………..…39 Figure 11: The Effectiveness of Swedish Aid is Constrained by Corruption in the PA, Israeli Occupation, or both - Articles from OmVärlden, DN and GP Combined……………...……………………………….42

1. Introduction

1.1 Overview

The author has worked with development and humanitarian aid for more than five years at the international level, including in a country that has been the largest Swedish aid recipient nation – Afghanistan. During all these years, The author learned that aid effectiveness had been a primary concern for development and humanitarian aid workers and agencies.

The role of foreign aid in contributing to growth and development has been extensively explored, but there is no consensus on how to enhance aid effectiveness. This paper argues that the effectiveness of foreign aid is associated with a complex set of social and economic variables. Thus, it is not easily understood by analysis based only on the quantification of those variables. That is why this thesis combines a mixed methods research approach involving qualitative and quantitative approaches.

The primary research question is: “To what extent has Swedish foreign aid significantly contributed to the Palestinian economy during the past two decades from 1999-2019?” Two sub-questions follow the main research question: “To what extent has aid effectiveness in Palestine been affected by corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation during the past two decades. The thesis uses a two-gap model of the economic growth theory through deductive reasoning, aiming to test this theory by employing different techniques like inferential and descriptive statistics (quantitative research) followed by a content analysis and interviews (qualitative research) to answer the research questions.

Results from the descriptive and inferential statistics and the content analysis show that Swedish aid positively affects the Palestinian economy, which coincides with the theoretical expectations, but is limited by countervailing factors. Through inductive reasoning, the study argues that the effectiveness of Swedish aid to Palestine is constrained by the Israeli occupation and corruption in the Palestinian Authority (PA).

1.2 Need for the Study

Foreign aid is a typical and regular affair concerning the least developed and developing countries. Aid serves and promotes different objectives, and the most cited aim is to reduce poverty in the recipient countries. The problem, however, is that aid programs can potentially

1 be limited in their effectiveness by external military pressure and the internal organization of political and economic institutions.1

While assessing foreign aid, its objectives should be considered. Foreign aid has played a significant part in the Palestinian economy, which has unique and multifarious features. There are many controversial opinions about the utilization of foreign aid. Numerous research studies regarding foreign aid to the Palestinian economy have been carried out, but none has been conducted so far, connecting Swedish aid effectiveness, Palestinian economy, corruption in the Palestinian Authority, and the Israeli occupation altogether. This thesis will provide information for the stakeholders engaged in aid-related debates, policymakers, academics, and everyone else directly or indirectly involved with the Palestinian economy, which might assist in planning the future economic development of Palestine.

1.3 Statement of the Problem

In September 1993, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Israel signed a Declaration of Principles (DoP) in Washington DC, formally recognizing each other and initiating reforms to end their historical conflict. As per the DoP, limited Palestinian self- government over parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip (WBGS) was established.2

Since 1994, large sums of foreign aid money have been pumped into the Palestinian economy, but the overall economic situation, unfortunately, continues to deteriorate. The WBGS (the term West Bank and Gaza Strip is often used interchangeably with Palestine) has extremely high poverty rates, sometimes climbing over 60 percent, and a fluctuating unemployment rate between 30 to 60 percent in recent years.3 Key major macroeconomic indicators indicate declining conditions.4

Sweden every year transfers millions of dollars of aid to Palestine, yet the economic conditions have been depressed. Is Swedish aid helping and having a positive impact on the Palestinian economy? If it has a positive impact, then what are the factors that impede the Palestinian economy from subsequent growth and development, is it corruption in the PA or the Israeli occupation, or both?

1 Taghdisi-Rad (2011). 2 Makovsky (1996). 3 PCBS (2017). 4 World Bank (2016).

1.4 Objectives of the Study

This thesis focuses on Swedish aid effectiveness in Palestine from the period 1999 till 2019. The main objective is to find explanations for the weakening of the Palestinian economy despite the huge sums of foreign aid received during the past two decades. Besides the main objective, this thesis aims to explore the current Palestinian economic status and examine corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the effects of the Israeli occupation that influence the utility of aid in general.

1.5 Organization of the Thesis

The thesis has six further chapters apart from references. The next chapter (Chapter Two) briefly traces the history of Palestine and a description of its current economic situation. It starts with a historical overview of foreign aid to Palestine and then examines the contemporary problem of economic growth in Palestine and the role which foreign aid has played in the most general terms. The chapter concludes by exploring Swedish development cooperation with Palestine and the leading Swedish aid agencies engaged in Palestine.

Chapter Three begins by focusing on the limitations of econometric techniques and reviews relevant aid literature debated by prominent authors in the field of study. Then it discusses the preconditions offered by the aid effectiveness literature, which are necessary for the success of foreign aid in reaching its objective. The chapter then elaborates on the theoretical approaches used in this study. It reviews the relevant literature supporting the theoretical model and explains why specific methods were selected to test the theoretical approach and the limitations of a quantitative research method.

Chapter Four justifies and explains methodological choices adopted for this study. It argues why both quantitative and qualitative mythologies are useful. It further explains the use of quantitative descriptive and inferential statistics and the qualitative use of content analysis and interviews.

Chapter Five presents the first empirical section consisting of quantitative analysis part, in which the relationship between dependent and independent variable is tested by using inferential and descriptive statistics and with the help of Microsoft Excel and STATA a simple statistical analysis is carried out. Results are reported in the format of descriptive statistics that include reports on means, standard deviation (SD), and different types of charts and graphs.

Chapter Six represents the second empirical section based on content analysis by examining the effect of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy and how pervasive the perception of corruption in the PA and the Israeli occupation is by analysing data from the articles and interviews.

Chapter Seven reviews the author's findings and highlights the study's contribution to the literature on aid effectiveness. It then discusses the main findings and results during the qualitative and quantitative analysis. It also addresses empirical and methodological issues that were raised in the process. It compares the findings to academic and policy literature's claims and assesses that literature's strengths and weaknesses. Finally, it highlights the strengths and weaknesses of the thesis and offers recommendations and suggestions for future research.

2 Background

2.1 Overview

This section provides a brief historical background of Palestine and a description of its current economic situation and history of foreign aid to Palestine. Then, the author examines the contemporary problem of economic growth and development and the role which foreign aid has played in the most general terms. The author also reviews the general context for economic development in Palestine. However, before I move on to the next section, let us clearly explain the meaning of two key terms from the very outset of this study. The two terms are foreign aid and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Foreign aid: In this study, foreign aid is defined as Official Development Assistance (ODA) which was first recorded and defined by the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). According to the DAC, foreign aid promotes the economic development, growth, and welfare of developing and least developed countries by transferring resources on concessional terms through official agencies. It has a grant element of twenty-five percent or more. Official Development Assistance (ODA) is used in aid effectiveness studies by almost all DAC members (which include Sweden) in the reporting of aid data and can be provided both in kind and in cash.5

5 OECD (2019).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): According to OECD, the single most important indicator of economic growth and the most comprehensive measure and indicator of the overall economic performance of a country is GDP. It is often used as a main and primary indicator for a nation’s economy and is defined as “the standard measure of the value-added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period.” GDP “also measures the income earned from…production, or the total amount spent on final goods and services (less imports).”6 Therefore, in this study, by referring to the Palestinian economy in the research question and elsewhere, I use GDP as the main indicator of the Palestinian economy.

2.2 Background on Foreign Aid to Palestine

Despite decades of receiving aid, Palestine, as the highest aid receiver per capita worldwide, has failed to accomplish any lasting development; it constantly suffers from significant problems that undermine its survival. To understand why? First and foremost, it is essential to know this nation’s history.

Both Israel and Palestinian territories were under the Ottoman (Turkish) empire until World War I and later came under the British administration from 1917 until 1948. After the establishment of Israel as a state, the eastern part of British Palestine became a part of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which today is known as the West Bank. In the southern part, a narrow coastal strip named after its central city of Gaza - was administered by Egypt. After the Six-Day War of 1967, both the West Bank and Gaza Strip (WBGS) came under Israeli rule, and their markets integrated into Israel. A major popular uprising erupted after twenty years of Israel’s occupation of the WBGS, also known as the First Intifada. This uprising almost shattered the links between Palestinian and Israeli economies.7

In 1994, after the September 1993 Economic Protocol agreement in Paris between the Palestinians and Israel resulting in the Declaration of Principles, both parties agreed to cooperate economically. This agreement defined the de jure regime of the five years agreed interim period (1994-99). Since the Paris Agreement, the Palestinian economy has undergone a dire crisis based on several factors, due to border closures mainly. During the Second Intifada, which erupted in September 2000, these closures peaked and created labor flow and trade

6 Ibid. 7 Oren (2003).

5 obstacles.8 Despite the peace process in 1993, the Palestinian economy has never been under complete Palestinian jurisdiction. Since the Israeli occupation of Palestine in 1967, the economy has suffered dramatic shifts. These changes are always attached to some external factors like employment in the labor markets of Israel and the rich Arab Gulf States, plus the number of external donations.9

The international community has transferred billions of dollars during the last decade to transform the low-income economy of Palestine. The country has experienced minor improvements, but it is minimal compared with the amount of money that has been poured in the form of foreign aid. The international aid community might alternatively use the case of the Marshal Plan of the US transferring cash to Western Europe after the Second World War as a contrasting, more effective model for how to structure aid. In the case of the Marshal Plan, aid led to investment followed by growth and eventually reducing poverty. Unlike the Marshal Plan, in Palestine, foreign aid does not invest substantively in the infrastructure or economy, leaving the war-affected Palestine worse off. Western European countries had stable and well- functioning governments with suitable business environments. The situation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip is precisely the opposite. 10

The Palestinian economy's various policies and actors create an exceptional economic case that makes this thesis different from previous studies related to foreign aid effectiveness. Scholars have used different models and econometric techniques to test aid effectiveness in the past, but they have reached different conclusions. One key reason for such differences is the variation in their approaches to assessing foreign aid effectiveness. The differences can also be due to model specifications involving different variables and different development or growth indicators. This thesis, however, uses both quantitative data by employing descriptive and inferential statistics and qualitative data to test the effect of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy and the role of corruption in PA and Israeli occupation through a content analysis of newspaper articles and interviews, which to the best of knowledge has never before been investigated.

The previous historical overview provides a brief context for understanding Palestine as both an object of foreign aid and a region subject to disruptions. Some data covering the recent past elaborates upon the area’s economic problems. First, in January 2017, the

8 Kleiman (2001). 9 UNCTAD (2013). 10 Turner and Shweiki (2014).

Palestinian unemployment rate was 27%, but by the Summer of 2018, it reached a high point of 32.4%, declining to 29.1% around January 2019. In other words, while unemployment has decreased in recent years, it remains very high.11 The recent patterns in Palestine’s unemployment rate can be seen in Figure 1.

At the same time, from 1993 to 2018, foreign aid to Palestine has been relatively high. It has increased from about $79 per capita in 1993. By 2009 it increased to a high of $766 per capita. In 2018, it was still as high as $490 per capita. In sum, the World Bank shows that per capita aid “averages out to $398 over nearly a quarter-century.” Moreover, “other countries received more per capita in aid in 2017 than the Palestinians, such as Syria ($567), Tonga ($744) and Kiribati ($663).” Nevertheless, a 2005 report found that Palestinians received $310 per person in 2004, which was then “considered one of the highest levels of aid in the world.”12 These trends are illustrated in Figure 2.

In 1999, Sweden’s total foreign aid to Palestine was $23.8 million. By 2008, total aid was $71.5 million. By 2011, Swedish foreign aid reached a high point of $106 million. This amount decreased to $51.1 million in 2019. During the past twenty years, the general pattern has been a steady increase in aid to about 2011 and then a steady decrease.13 These trends are illustrated in Figure 3.

The following section will explore some of the prominent Swedish aid agencies and their development cooperation with Palestine. The focus will be on the role of different Swedish aid agencies in developing the Palestinian economy, and this is crucial because later, it will help us better understand when measuring the economic and social influence of the Swedish foreign aid in Palestine.

2.3 Swedish Development Cooperation with Palestine

The author will now briefly discuss Palestine-Sweden relations and overview the Swedish aid agencies and their development cooperation with Palestine. On a bilateral basis, Sweden is one of the prominent donors to Palestine. After recognizing Palestine as a state by Sweden in 2014, the Swedish government presented a five-year development strategy for Palestine (2015-2019), which focused on human rights, democratic development, private sector development, and environmental issues.

11 Trading Economics (2019). 12 Kessler (2019); Development Studies Programme (2004). 13 Openaid (2019).

Figure 1: Palestine Unemployment Rate

Source: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, 2019

Figure 2: Foreign Aid to Palestine Per Capita (Current USD)

Source: World Bank, 2019 Figure 3: Sweden’s Aid to Palestine Per Capita (USD in million)

Source: Openaid, 2019

The total budget for this strategy was around $177 million, which is a significant increase over previous aid budgets.14 Before discussing the current Swedish development strategy for Palestine, it is crucial to identify Swedish aid agencies that have been directly or indirectly operating in the West Bank and Gaza. Some of the prominent granting agencies that provided aid during 2015-2019 Sweden’s Development Strategy for Palestine are presented in Table 1. Sida, the development agency, is mainly responsible for disbursing such funds and has provided financial assistance on a larger scale during the current Swedish development strategy for Palestine (2015-2019). The National Police Board, Swedish National Courts Administration, Swedish National Audit Office, Swedish Prison, and Probation Service, and Swedish Prosecution Authority are also among Swedish granting agencies that have provided financial support to Palestine but on a smaller scale than the central agencies mentioned in Table 1 below.15

The Swedish aid agency, Sida, provides the following explanation for their aid program with Palestine. Sida says it aims to support Palestine as a democratic, independent, cohesive, and vibrant country living “in peace with Israel and Jerusalem as a capital city for the two states.” The official Swedish position highlights the Israeli occupation as the key stumbling block to economic growth and development in Palestine. As Sida states, the biggest obstacle to development is the Israeli occupation that lasted for more than 50 years. The core focus of the cooperation is democracy and human rights, the environment and climate, and the growth of a private sector. To achieve long-term development, it is a requirement that Israel’s policy of occupation ceases.16 Despite this argument, we can ask additional questions about the external and internal factors limiting Palestine’s development. First, how effective was all the aid sent to Palestine in promoting economic growth and development? Second, what role has the occupation and corruption played in terms of the effectiveness of aid? Third, were there other internal factors that influenced economic growth and aid effectiveness during this period? The author now reviews relevant literature and some theories that can help us answer these questions.

14 It is also important to mention that Palestinian representation in Stockholm has been upgraded to an embassy, while Sweden still has a general consulate in East Jerusalem rather than an embassy (Sida, 2019). 15 Openaid (2019). 16 Sida (2015).

Table 1: Swedish Granting Agencies

Agency name Background Sida Formed in 1995, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) is a government agency that works on behalf of the government and Swedish parliament. The core mission of Sida is to alleviate global poverty. Through its work and other organizations, Sida immensely contributes to the implementation of Sweden’s Policy for Global Development (PGD). One of the principal objectives behind the implementation of development policy is to enable poor people worldwide to have better living conditions. The second part of Sida’s mission is to provide humanitarian assistance to people in need. The third part of Sida’s assignment is to conduct reform cooperation with Eastern Europe. Sida manages half of Sweden’s total development aid budget, and its work is financed by tax money. The other half part is administered and channelled through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.17 FBA Established in 2002, the Folke Bernadotte Academy (FBA) is the Swedish Government Agency for Peace, Security, and Development. It is named after the first UN mediator, Count Folke Bernadotte. Its primary mission is to support global peace, international development cooperation, and crisis management operations. Through FBA, Sweden contributes to international peace and security and improves the lives of poor repressed people in different parts of the world. The agency also conducts research, training, and policy analysis and development to improve state-building and peacebuilding in conflict and post-conflict countries. FBA also recruits personnel and expertise for election observation missions and international peace operations led by the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). FBA cooperates with many international and Swedish organizations.18 MSB Established in 2009, when no other authority has responsibility, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) is tasked with emergency management, civil protection, civil defence, and public safety issues. It takes all the measures before, during, and after crisis and emergency. The MSB receives instructions from the Swedish government, which specifies all tasks and responsibilities MSB’s has to carry, and it also specifies resources allocated for MSB activities and the reporting requirement.19 SI Founded in 1945 - The Swedish Institute (SI) is a government agency tasked with spreading information about Sweden outside the country. It organizes different opportunities for exchanges with other countries in different areas such as education, culture, and research. It also seeks to establish lasting relations and cooperation with different countries around the globe through strategic communication.20 UHR UHR or the Swedish Council for Higher Education is also a government agency that covers responsibilities concerning education in general. It is also the national agency for the international program and EU education programs. It provides support and information for collaborations and international exchange regarding education.21 Source: Developed by the author based on data from the respective agencies, 2019

17 Sida (2019). 18 FBA (2019). 19 MSB (2019). 20 SI (2019). 21 UHR (2019).

3 Literature Review and Theoretical Framework

3.1 Introduction

This study investigates the impact of Swedish foreign aid during the past two decades on the Palestinian economy. It will try to answer the following research questions: “To what extent has Swedish foreign aid significantly contributed to the Palestinian economy during the past two decades from 1999-2019?” Two sub-questions follow the main research question: “To what extent has aid effectiveness in Palestine been affected by corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation.

In this chapter, the author first reviews the literature on the preconditions necessary for the effectiveness of foreign aid. Such discussion will help us better understand some of the reasons as to whether Swedish foreign aid has achieved its primary objectives in the West Bank and Gaza Strip (WBGS). The author then elaborates on the fundamental theories and variables that help us answer the research questions and their operationalization. The fundamental theories will connect the following variables: (a) Palestinian GDP, (b) Swedish foreign aid, (c) corruption in the PA, and (d) the Israeli occupation.

3.2 Literature Review

Overview

The extensive literature on foreign aid provides plenty of evidence showing a positive relationship between foreign aid and GDP regardless of any approach and model we use. The disagreement in the foreign aid literature among different authors is based mainly on certain conditions required to make aid effective. As far as the economy of Palestine is concerned, there is minimal literature addressing the problems of foreign aid effectiveness. In order to understand the potential effectiveness of Swedish aid to Palestine and the theories that might help us assess that effectiveness, first, the author explores the character, objective, and purpose of foreign aid in general terms, as reflected in the literature.

Since the Bretton Woods Conference, many forms of foreign aid have been given to different nations to foster reconstruction. When we say “many forms of foreign aid,” we usually refer to three broad types of aid: emergency or humanitarian aid, which is dispensed in response to calamities – for example, aid in response to floods, earthquakes, storms, and other catastrophes; charity-based aid which is disbursed to people or institutions by charitable organizations; and systematic aid that is given directly to governments either through

11 government-to-government transfers (which is termed as bilateral aid) or through international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank or the United Nations, also known as multilateral aid.22

The role of foreign aid regarding its impact on development, growth, and donor’s interest and objective has been widely discussed. General statements about foreign aid from the donor countries indicate different objectives. For instance, Australian aid objectives are humanitarian, strategic, and commercial.23 Official statements from the United States government indicate that the objective of foreign aid, besides providing “humanitarian relief” and helping “long term economic and social development of low-income countries,” is also to promote “national security.”24 So, bilateral aid has humanitarian and political motives which have remained integral to the foreign policy instrument of a donor country. It is generally given to support donor’s political, economic, and security interests. Multilateral aid is allocated based on recipient need criteria.

Among the two main objectives for aid are first, the interest of the donor, and second the needs of the aid recipient. If the motivation for aid is a donor’s interest, it will mainly serve the donor’s interest in security, trade, and investment objectives.25 If the recipient’s need is the priority, aid will be used to lessen poverty, promote growth, and decrease inequalities between developing and developed countries. Rather than considering the real needs of recipient countries, donor countries allocate foreign aid following their strategic objectives.26

Aid can positively affect recipient economies if recipient needs, and donor interests are not in conflict. There is a negative impact when there is a conflict of interest between the recipient government and the donor. In such cases, aid policy should be designed to suit the characteristics of the recipient government.27 Regardless of what motive foreign aid serves, one of its main objectives besides spurring growth in the developing countries is also to reduce poverty. There is a correlation between growth and poverty reduction, yet it is possible that aid has been successful in reducing poverty but has not had the same positive effect on growth.28

22 Qarmout (2017). 23 The Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia (1996). 24 Lawson and Morgenstern (2019). 25 Maizels and Nissanke (1984). 26 Alesina and Dollar (2000). 27 Cordella and Dell’Ariccia (2001). 28 Burnside and Dollar (1998).

We can add that foreign aid can serve donor interests, recipient objectives, or both from the discussion above. Bilateral aid is often directed to achieve the donors' strategic interest, and multilateral aid focuses on achieving the recipient's needs. Therefore, the degree of aid effectiveness depends on the fundamental objectives behind the aid. In this study, we focus on significant systematic Swedish aid that is transferred each year to Palestine. Systematic aid from rich countries to poor has been either in concessional loans (money lent for a lower rate of interest than the actual market interest rate and with much more extended lending periods than commercial market) or grants (money given for nothing expected in return).29 Next, it is essential to fully comprehend what other researchers and scholars have written previously about foreign aid effectiveness.

The Debate of Foreign Aid Effectiveness

The effectiveness of aid has been studied extensively during the past fifty years, and many economists have approached the question of whether aid is effective and works or not from the following different ideological and methodological perspectives: First, the impact of foreign aid has been tested at both the macro and micro level. Second, it has been evaluated considering both cross-country and single-country case studies. Lastly, it has been tested through broad surveys in order to conduct both qualitative and quantitative analysis.30

Recently, however, the literature on aid effectiveness has been dominated by cross- sectional studies which use single-equation methods and techniques, producing mixed results. The finding shows that the overall impact of aid has been reasonably positive, but the question is why foreign aid has been successful in some developing countries while others are in a far worse condition than before receiving aid. The answer to this question lies in several factors such as the motives behind foreign aid, status of the country before receiving aid, the relationship of donors and recipients, type of foreign aid given, the definition of development, and proposed policy of foreign aid (donor’s foreign policy).31

Thus, foreign aid may help a country develop, but it may also contribute to its failure. One study used pooled data of thirteen Asian countries to test the aid relationship, and the result showed a positive and significant relationship between aid and growth.32 However, aid had no impact on income growth or investment when it was tested using a sample of Least Developed

29 Ibid. 30 Ibid. 31 Yiew and Lau (2018). 32 Dowling and Hiemenz (1983).

Countries (LDCs).33 There is no consensus among authors regarding the effectiveness of foreign aid, mainly due to the different approaches they use in their assessment. Some have used single equation studies.34 In contrast, others have used simultaneous equations.35 Variation among authors can occur because of the model specification and various types of variables and growth indicators.

Earlier empirical studies have different conclusions, and some of the most prominent researchers are mentioned here. For example, in the 1950s, a cross-country regression analysis of 34 countries and 51 countries in the 1960s was done to test the following variables: foreign investment, foreign aid, domestic savings, and other flows. The conclusion showed that foreign aid has a highly significant impact on economic growth compared to other variables considered. It also found that aid can fill both the savings gap and foreign exchange gap. Unlike other foreign inflows, aid is mainly designed to foster economic growth.36 A similar study of 77 countries over a different period showed a positive relationship between economic growth and foreign aid in developing countries. Using modern growth theories, it was pointed out that foreign aid, exports, savings, and human capital are positively correlated with economic growth.37

In another study, the relationship between growth and macroeconomic policies was examined, and it revealed that foreign aid is more effective in countries with good and stable policies.38 After an in-depth empirical and theoretical investigation, a positive relationship between foreign aid and economic growth was found in another study during the mid- nineties.39 The role of foreign aid in generating economic growth was reconsidered using an updated dataset by Burnside and Dollar (2000) after William Easterly criticized it. The finding showed that the relationship between foreign aid, economic growth, and government policy is shaky and depends on the sample of data used. In the original set of countries included by Burnside and Dollar, good policies (the ability of the recipient country to use aid money efficiently and wisely) affect the effectiveness of foreign aid and increase economic growth. However, the relationship vanishes for a more extensive set of countries.

33 Boone (1996). 34 Papanek (1973); Griffin (1970); Dowling and Hiemenz (1983); etc. 35 Mosley (1980); Burnside and Dollar (1997); Hadjimichael et al. (1995). 36 Papanek (1973). 37 Fayissa and El-Kaissy (1999). 38 Burnside and Dollar (2000). 39 Hansen and Tarp (2000).

One recent paper states that there is a reversed U-shaped relationship between growth and foreign aid. Due to recipient countries’ absorptive capacity, there are diminishing returns to foreign aid.40 The relationship between economic growth and foreign aid was analyzed using a sample set of 85 countries between 1980 and 2007. The study covered countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, and Latin America and hypothesized that foreign aid increases growth. The study showed that the impact of foreign aid on economic growth in low-income countries was inconclusive.41

After reviewing the literature on the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth, we notice that many studies claim that foreign aid has a positive effect on growth, a few studies found a negative impact. Others find evidence that there is no specific relationship between foreign aid and growth. There is no consensus among various authors, and so there is no agreement on the question. However, we observed that the principal economic rationale for foreign aid before the 1990s was to increase economic growth in recipient countries. For decades, this has been the economic growth theory's driving economic objective of aid that was established formally in the two-gap model.42 In the Palestinian context, this relationship's nature is subject to an empirical investigation that has never been done before this thesis to the best of the author's knowledge.

3.3 Theorizing the Dependent Variable

The dependent variable in this study is Palestinian GDP. The two-gap model based on the Harrod-Domar growth model can be beneficial to operationalize the dependent variable. This model suggests that economic growth depends on the domestic saving rate of the economy, but this model is for a closed economy that does not include foreign trade. Developing countries need imports of raw materials and certain capital goods for their industrialization, which they could not manufacturer themselves. So, trade was introduced in the Harrod-Domar growth model to explain the role of foreign exchange in importing raw materials and capital goods. In the extended Harrod-Domar model, the term “foreign trade balance (imports minus exports)” was added, and it is called “the two-gap model,” which is also known as the “dual gap model.”43 This model implies a direct relationship between investment and economic growth (GDP). Investment in this approach is the cornerstone of growth, and aid is supposed to fill the

40 Feeny and McGillivray (2008). 41 Ekanayake and Chatrna (2010). 42 Ibid. 43 Chenery and Strout (1966).

15 temporary gap between savings and investment.44 In other words, foreign aid plays a crucial role in filling the gap between savings and investment; it also provides a way to indirectly compensate for the lack of foreign exchange (foreign currencies from exports).45

Poor countries lack resources to invest and thus cannot import technology and capital goods. If we consider the Palestinian economy, the investment budget has always been 100 percent financed by foreign aid, and it was never part of the region’s fiscal policy.46 So, a dollar of aid is supposed to yield a dollar in terms of investment, and to test whether this has been the case or not; the two-gap model may prove to be very useful. In the next section, I start by explaining the two-gap model and how it can relate dependent and independent variables, and how to operationalize variables in the research questions.

The Two-Gap Model

The theoretical framework of this research is partly based on the two-gap model of Chenery and Strout (1966), which is essentially rooted in Harrod's (1939) and Domar's (1946) model of economic growth theory. The two-gap model has been used for decades as a standard model to justify aid and is used by the World Bank and other major institutions involved with aid policy even today.47 It argues that aid accelerates economic growth and enhances capital formation. The main point of this model is that developing economies are either faced with a deficit of saving to meet investment opportunities or a deficit of foreign exchange to finance the import of capital required. In other words, the foreign exchange gap and the savings gap are two distinct and independent constraints to achieve a targeted growth rate in less developed countries (LDCs). The saving gap approach is based on Harrod's economic growth model, and according to the Harrod-Domar equation, economic growth is associated with the investment funded by domestic and foreign savings. In less developed countries, savings are insufficient to meet the required investment because of their low per capita income, so there is a need for foreign aid.48 Thus the saving and investment gap is filled by foreign aid. As mentioned above, another possible growth constraint in less developed countries is the foreign exchange gap. It pops up because the supply of exports is not enough to meet the demand for imports. Therefore,

44 Gomanee et al. (2002). 45 Ibid. 46 World bank (2016). 47 Easterly (2003). 48 Dollar and Easterly (1999).

16 aid is considered as complementing the foreign exchange gap. So, the import and export gap is also filled by foreign aid.

3.4 Theorizing Foreign Aid’s Contribution in a Palestinian Context

Besides Palestinian economic GDP (dependent variable), our primary independent variable is Swedish foreign aid. These two variables are our variables of interest in this study. Swedish foreign aid can be measured by the Swedish Official Development Assistance (ODA), the amount of Swedish aid money transferred each year to Palestine. In a Palestinian context, massive foreign aid has been poured into the economy; unfortunately, the economic situation has deteriorated, and the economy’s ability to produce wealth is seriously compromised. Bennet et al. (2003) argue that in the Palestinian economy, the investment budget has been 100 percent financed by foreign aid, and it has never been a part of the Palestinian Authority’s fiscal policy. So, this means that one dollar of foreign aid is supposed to yield a dollar in terms of investment that has not been achieved in the Palestinian economy because of two additional factors theorized: Corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation.

3.5 Theorizing Corruption and Israeli Occupation

Along with our primary independent variable (Swedish foreign aid), two other factors that affect the Palestinian economy and aid effectiveness are corruption in the PA and Israeli occupation. These two variables can be measured through the statements made by interview respondents and statements in various articles that the author has reviewed in this study. There is minimal literature on why foreign aid does not have a positive impact on the Palestinian economy. To the best of the author's knowledge, there is almost no literature on the impact of Swedish foreign aid on the Palestinian economy, considering the role of corruption and occupation. There is consensus among scholars that the absence of corruption leads to economic growth in aid recipient countries; a claim also reported in the World Bank "assessing aid" report claims that the absence of corruption creates the right environment for foreign aid to increase economic growth.49 Corruption in the PA may play a distinct role when speaking about Palestinian GDP, but it is also essential to keep in mind the specifics of Palestine. Palestine has a history of ongoing bloodiest conflict with Israel, and the occupation has adversely affected the effectiveness of foreign aid in general. These two variables, corruption,

49 World Bank (1998).

17 and occupation will be operationalized based on analysis of various newspaper articles through content analysis and the experiences and understanding of the interview respondents.

3.6 Summary

In this section, the author summarizes how the factors explained above relate to the research question. To find a link between dependent and independent variables, this study first tests the two-tap model of the economic growth theory by quantitative approach (descriptive and inferential statistics) combined with qualitative research (content analysis and semi-structured interviews). It is essential to identify and clearly describe our measures to bridge theoretical models with the empirical section. Identifying measures will help us organize quantitative a qualitative data and make things clear. It will also provide a parameter for dependent and independent variables.

Table 2 below shows how the two-gap model of economic growth theory will be operationalized in the empirical sections by identifying measures for each variable in the research questions. Table 3 shows how other factors that affect the dependent variable are operationalized. Table 4 provides a clear picture of how the primary factors and variables in the research questions will be answered in different empirical parts. These tables summarized from the discussion in the literature review and theory section will be used as a recipe regarding what we need to look for when carrying out the empirical work.

Table 2: Components of a Theory and Measures (Quantitative Part)

Theory Dependent Quantitative Independent Quantitative variable measure variable measure Two-gap Palestinian Gross Domestic Swedish Swedish ODA or the model of the economy Product (GDP) of foreign aid amount of aid money economic Palestine transferred every year growth theory to Palestine. Source: Developed by the author. Table 3: Linking Factors and Measures (Qualitative Part)

Dep. Indep.V1 Indep.V2 Qualitative Indep.V3 Qualitative Variable measure measure Palestinian Swedish Corruption Statements made Israeli Statements made GDP foreign by the interview Occupation by the interview aid respondents and respondents and statements linking statements linking this factor with the this factor with the Palestinian Palestinian economy and aid economy and aid effectiveness by effectiveness by key quotes in the key quotes in the news articles in news articles in the content the content analysis section. analysis section. Source: Developed by the author. Table 4: Summary of Relevant Factors and Variables

Key Variable Variable Empirical Section I Empirical Section II Type Quantitative Qualitative Qualitative Analysis (Stage I) Analysis (Stage Analysis II) (Stage III) Palestinian Dependent X X X economy variable (GDP) Swedish aid Independent X X X variable 1 Corruption in Independent X the PA variable 2 The Israeli Independent X Occupation variable 3 Source: Developed by the author.

4 Methodology

4.1 Introduction

In this chapter, the author presents the research design of the thesis. It uses both quantitative and qualitative research methods. Through deductive and inductive approach – descriptive and inferential statistics is carried out to find the impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy (GDP), followed by a qualitative and quantitative content analysis supplemented by interviews to answer the following research questions: “To what extent has Swedish foreign aid significantly contributed to Palestinian economy from 1999-2019?” And two sub-questions follow: “To what extent has aid effectiveness in Palestine been affected by corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation.

According to Neuendorf and Kuman (2015), the content analysis method is beneficial in answering research questions to analyse communicative language with the representation of various diverse discourses. Content analysis can be qualitative analysis in which themes are labelled inductively by scanning a text and looking for “thematic patterns.” It can also be quantitative analysis in which the content is quantified by categories established a priori in a systematic, objective, and replicable manner. (Bryman, 2012:289). It is a method to understand easily “who says what, how, why, and with what effect” (Babbie, 2009).

4.2 From Theory to Method

We saw in Chapter Three above that the two-gap model of the economic growth theory is a potential explanation for investigating the impact of Swedish foreign aid on the Palestinian economy (GDP) to answer the first research question through deductive reasoning. The author uses inductive reasoning to answer the remaining research questions and uses both quantitative and qualitative methods and data.

On the whole, this study can be seen as a case study focused on the relationship between Swedish foreign aid and the Palestinian economy, in which the case is based on quantitative and qualitative data. Yin (1981: 58) explains: “the case study does not imply the use of a particular type of evidence” as such “studies can be done by using either qualitative or quantitative evidence.” Such “evidence may come from fieldwork, archival records, verbal reports, observations, or any combination of these.”

4.3 Research Strategy

This thesis will use the following methods: (a) an analysis of descriptive and inferential statistics, (b) qualitative work supporting the case study analysis based on content analysis complemented by interviews. To answer the research questions, in stage (I), the study first uses descriptive and inferential statistics to test the relationship between Swedish aid and the Palestinian economy through deductive reasoning by testing the existing theory. In stage (II), content analysis based on seventy-seven newspaper articles from OmVärlden, Dagens Nyheter (DN), and Göteborgs-Posten (GP) is used to analyze the impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy also through deductive reasoning. In stage (III), content analysis to examine the effectiveness of aid in Palestine based on newspaper articles complemented by primary data collected from the field through interviews, this is done by inductive reasoning aiming to develop a theory and answer to what extent aid effectiveness in Palestine has been affected by the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA.

One of the main areas of this research focus is assessing the effectiveness of aid in Palestine, which is analyzed in two principal ways. First, seventy-seven newspaper articles in OmVärlden, DN, and GP about Swedish aid to Palestine and other keywords related to this issue were sampled from January 1999 to December 2019. Second, through interviews with experts, diplomats, politicians, and professors in Palestine, Israel, and Sweden. As mentioned above, the interviewees are officials who could potentially influence policy and are members of the political elite. One of the potential limits to the methodological approach would be that the author has not analyzed the opinion and views of the civil society members. However, the study of public opinion articles from the DN, GP, and OmVärlden potentially capture civil society members' views.

4.4 Quantitative and Quantitative Research and Sources

As the author mentioned above, this study tests the impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy and its effectiveness. The impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy (GDP) will be examined by descriptive and inferential statistics in stage (I). Quantitative data from secondary sources such as the World Bank, Openaid.se, and Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) was initially compiled in Microsoft Excel then imported to STATA. For analyzing the quantitative data, STATA has been used to estimate the correlation between variables. After carrying statistical analysis, the outcome is presented in descriptive statistics

21 formats such as tables reporting means, standard deviation, frequency distribution, and different graphs and charts.

Stage (II) of this study is focused on explaining the relationship between dependent and independent variables in the primary research question. The author conducted a content analysis and used as researcher's key database a search of articles from the most prominent and leading Swedish online magazine that covers global affairs, OmVärlden, which is entirely independent and financed by the Swedish government agency called Sida. The author reviewed each article in the database using keywords related to "Swedish aid" "Palestine" and synonyms for these words to identify how many such combinations exist and then provided a contextual explanation of how these words are used together by identifying relevant combinations. After the author figured out the appropriate search terms for the data, the author reviewed 176 articles and then created a coding scheme and set of rules to identify key sentences, concepts and words to address the relevant factor in the research question to examine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The author randomly selected articles using a system suggested by Associate Professor Dr. Jonathan M. Feldman in the "Linking Theory and Methods" section of his book Out of the Black Box (2018) to avoid bias in selection. Thirty- three related articles were sampled from January 1999 until December 2019 (see Appendix 1).

All articles related to the above keywords have been thoroughly researched and classified by statements that: (a) Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy; (b) Swedish aid has a negative impact on the Palestinian economy, and (c) Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy (or synonyms for these words and similar concepts). The authors of these articles are people who influence public opinion due to their status in the societal structure, which in the words of Ehrenreich and Ehrenreich (1977), can be referred to as “the professional-managerial class” that include prominent journalists, senior experts, high ranking politicians, and political commentators.

Although OmVärlden is fully independent and its editor-in-chief is responsible for following Swedish press laws, one of the source criticisms could be that it is financed by the same Swedish government’s agency - Sida, which is also responsible for managing Swedish foreign aid. Therefore, the author also conducted a supplementary study of Dagens Nyheter (DN) and Göteborgs-Posten (GP), which according to statista.com, are Sweden’s leading, influential, and most prominent newspapers. Using the same above technique, the author reviewed 87 articles of the DN (see Appendix 2) and 37 articles of the GP (see Appendix 3).

Twentynine-related articles from the DN and fifteen articles from the GP between January 1999 until December 2019 were also sampled and processed.

In stage (III), I examined the effectiveness of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy and relied on articles from OmVärlden, DN, and GP. All articles that correspond with aid effectiveness, Israeli occupation, and corruption in the Palestinian Authority and other keywords have been cautiously examined and characterized in three different categories: (a) aid effectiveness is constrained by corruption in the Palestinian Authority; (b) aid effectiveness is constrained by the Israeli occupation and (c) aid effectiveness is constrained both by the Israeli occupation and corruption (or synonyms for these words and similar concepts).

The author complements phase III with semi-structured interviews. The author opted for a semi-structured interview because it gives the interviewer freedom to inquire and clarify the topic during the interview without following any particular sequence. Individuals who were interviewed include the Palestinian and Israeli ambassadors to Sweden; a minister in the Israeli cabinet and the leader of the second biggest political party in Israel; the Swedish Deputy ambassador to Israel; officials at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs; officials at Swedish general consulate in Jerusalem; officials from Folke Bernadotteakademin, Sida, the Olof Palme International Center; civil society leaders, lecturers, and professors at Palestinian and Israeli universities. Table 5 below provides a complete list of the informants interviewed for this study, along with their job titles and the organization they represent. The author used the interviews to dig deep and understand the constraints related to aid effectiveness in Palestine, especially the role of Israeli occupation and corruption in the Palestinian Authority. During my Minor Field Study (MFS) in the West Bank and Israel, the data collection was carried out from January 2019 till July 2019.

Before the interviews, the author took some crucial steps starting with preparation by reviewing relevant available literature. As a second step, the author drafted three critical categories of questions related to research questions. The first set of questions were about Swedish aid's impact on the Palestinian economy, the second set of questions related to how corruption in PA has affected aid effectiveness, and the third category related to how the Israeli occupation has affected aid effectiveness. In the third step, the author selected the type of interview. The semi-structured method made it easier to narrow down certain topics. When some questions were complicated or unclear to interviewees, the author could rephrase the

23 questions. No fixed set of questions was followed. The language used in the interviews was primarily English and very little Arabic.

The interview appointments were scheduled in advance by contacting the interviewees by email. Almost all the interviews were conducted during the official hours. In total, nineteen face-to-face interviews were conducted, and only twelve were audio recorded. On average, each interview lasted 60 minutes. Many of the persons interviewed answered the questions without any hesitation. Only one interviewee, in the beginning, was not comfortable with being recorded. However, after assuring him/her that the aim of the interview was purely academic, she/he then agreed. All the findings from the interviews were summarized. Then interviewees were asked if they would like to comment or add anything. After each interview, the transcript was shared with the interviewee for his or her verification. It is ensured that all the interviewees read, approved, and have given consent for submission and publication of their opinions.

One of the main challenges the author faced was during the preparation of interview questions. One of the concerns was regarding the content produced during the interviews based on questions. The author was well aware of the particular challenges of semi-structured interviews as a research method. Due to the sensitive nature of the research topic, the author was worried about the subjective interpretation of the topic, meaning that the questions that the researcher prepared after reading relevant available literature from various sources, which to a certain extent, shaped the author's opinion. The author coped with this issue by being objective in preparing questions and interpreting the results. The author tried to ask questions neutrally and approached each interviewee differently to avoid influencing them directly or indirectly as the author was aware of their backgrounds and affiliation. The author modified questions each time he conducted an interview and did not repeat the same questions to another interviewee.

The sample size of interviewees might be another challenge because it is a small sample to make a generalization. Larger sample size may present a different result than mine. The author is also cognizant of the possibility of bias in the answers from diplomats, government officials, and Israeli and Palestinian nationals (who try not to speak critically or favorably). All these challenges and limits of interview-based research have been tackled by supplementing these indicators with different objective qualitative and quantitative indicators such as using descriptive and inferential statistics and studying newspaper articles from three different leading newspapers.

Table 5: List of the Informants Interviewed

Interview Interview Name Organization Title No. date 1 2019-02-26 Ilan Ben Dov Embassy of Israel in Ambassador Stockholm 2 2019-02-27 Hala Husni Embassy of Palestine in Ambassador Fariz Stockholm 3 2019-03-11 Ghadeer Birzeit University Lecturer Awwad 4 2019-03-07 Shalva Weil Hebrew University Professor 5 2019-03-19 Christina Consulate General of Consul, Head of Etzell Sweden in Jerusalem Development Cooperation 6 2019-05-15 Staffan Embassy of Sweden in Deputy Head of Jonsäter Tel Aviv Mission

7 2019-02-25 Taleb Sobeh Folke Project Manager Bernadotteakademin 8 2019-02-25 Lina Frödin Folke Project Manager Bernadotteakademin for Palestine 9 2019-01-03 Gustaf Swedish Ministry for In-charge of Winstrand Foreign Affairs Palestinian desk 10 2019-01-22 Svjetlana The Olof Palme Program Manager Duric International Center 11 2019-03-03 Avi Gabay the Israeli Labor Party Chairman of the party 12 2019-05-11 Rami Aman Gaza Youth Committee Founder of the organization 13 2019-05-07 Rabbi Shaul Roots Co-director Judelmen 14 2019-04-22 Antwan Saca Programs for the Holy Director land Trust 15 2019-04-03 Huda the Alliance for Middle Regional Director Abuarquob East Peace (ALLMEP) 16 2019-05-22 Fleur Jerusalem Municipality Deputy Mayor of Hassan- Jerusalem Nahoum 17 2019-05-14 Prof. Gerald Bar Ilan University Professor M. Steinberg 18 2019-05-14 Shaun Sacks NGO Monitor Institute Senior for NGO Research Researcher 19 2019-03-07 Justin Korda Schusterman Foundation- Deputy CEO Israel Source: Developed by the author.

5. Empirical Section I

5.1 Quantitative Analysis – (Stage I)

In this section, descriptive and inferential statistics are used to explore the impact of Swedish foreign aid on the Palestinian economy for the data from 1999-2019. This will be valuable in establishing preliminary findings to provide insights into the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Based on the descriptive analysis to examine the data observed in this section, the author tests the following proposed hypothesis:

Alternative hypothesis: H1: There is a significant relationship between Palestinian GDP and Swedish aid. Null hypothesis: H0: There is no significant relationship between Palestinian GDP and Swedish aid.

Before testing the hypothesis, the author first shows the relationship between Palestinian GDP and Swedish aid with the help of utilizing various tables and graphs. Table 6 below, for instance, shows that the amount of Swedish foreign aid to Palestine during 1999 was $23.8 million and increased to $32.2 million in 2000. The flow of Swedish aid in 2001 decreased to $22.9 million and continued to increase in 2002, 2003, 2004, witnessing a slight drop in 2005 and increased again in 2006. The highest amount of Swedish aid that Palestine received was in 2011, amounting to $108 million. The data is also shown in the form of a chart in Figure 4.

Table 6 also illustrates that the GDP figures of Palestine from 1999 to 2019 were fluctuating at different rates. The GDP value stood at $4.271 billion in 1999 and experienced an increase of about 1% in 2000 and a drop of about 7% in 2001 and 11% in 2002. From 2003 till 2019, the GDP experienced a gradual increase at an average of $0.8 billion annually. The data is displayed in Figure 5.

The data in Table 6, besides displaying the combined figures of Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP at current prices for almost two decades, also shows the contribution of Swedish aid in the Palestinian GDP in terms of percentage. The lowest contribution of Swedish financial assistance in the Palestinian GDP was from 2015 to 2019, 0.169% in 2019 (lowest) and 0.386% in 2015. The highest contribution however was during the year 2008 (0.971%), 2011 (0.965%) and 2007 (0.945%). To depict the interrelation between Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP, a graphical representation of the data from Table 6 is displayed in line charts in Figures 6 and 7.

Table 6: Swedish Aid and GDP Figures of Palestine

Year A: Swedish aid to Palestine B: GDP in current prices A/B in (Millions of US$) (Millions of US$) percentage 1999 23.8 4271.2 0.538% 2000 32.2 4313.6 0.741% 2001 22.9 4003.7 0.549% 2002 28.4 3555.8 0.787% 2003 35.6 3968 0.882% 2004 37.4 4603.1 0.803% 2005 34.9 5125.7 0.663% 2006 49.0 5348.3 0.916% 2007 55.2 5815.7 0.945% 2008 71.5 7310.4 0.971% 2009 68.6 8085.7 0.841% 2010 59.4 9681.5 0.609% 2011 108 11186.1 0.965% 2012 104 12208.4 0.851% 2013 57.6 13515.5 0.421% 2014 66.6 13989.7 0.471% 2015 54.0 13972.4 0.386% 2016 59.3 15405.4 0.382% 2017 60.4 16128 0.372% 2018 61.7 16276.6 0.378% 2019 29.3 17136 0.169% Source: Author’s calculation based on World Bank and Openaid.se, 2019

In Table 7 below, we see summary statistics of our two variables, Swedish aid and Palestinian economy (GDP). Average aid transferred to Palestine from Sweden during 1999- 2019 is $52.9 million with a 23.4 standard deviation. The minimum amount of Swedish financial assistance poured into the Palestinian economy is $22 million in 2001. The maximum amount is $108 million during 2011. The average GDP of Palestine from 1999 to 2019 is $8.9 billion, with a 4.9 standard deviation. In 2002 the GDP was lowest, amounting to almost $3 billion and highest during 2019, approximately $17 billion.

Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP values were entered into Microsoft Excel and then imported to statistical software STATA. Pearson correlation coefficient was computed as presented in Tables 8 and 9 below. A correlation coefficient of 0.46 in Table 8 shows a positive and robust relationship between Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP.50

50 If we pay close attention, the descriptive data comparison between Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP points towards a positive correlation before 2012 but a negative one after 2012. Normally, the correlation coefficient tells us two things: (a) the direction of correlation and (b) the strength of correlation. Here we are interested in the strength of correlation which is positive and significant.

Figure 4: Swedish Aid to Palestine

120 100

$ 80

40 millions millions US 20

2006 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Swedish Aid to Palestine Source: Constructed based on World Bank data, 2019. Figure 5: Palestinian GDP

18 16 14

$ 12 10 8

billionUS 6 4 2

2014 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Palestinian GDP

Source: Constructed based on World Bank data, 2019. Figure 6: Swedish Aid to Palestine

120 100

$ 80 60

40 millions millions US 20

2003 2008 2013 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Swedish Aid to Palestine

Source: Constructed based on the data from Table 6

Figure 7: Palestinian GDP

18 16 14

$ 12 10 8

billionUS 6 4 2

2015 2017 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2019

Palestinian GDP

Source: Constructed based on the data from Table 6.

Table 7: Summary Statistics

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev Min Max Swedish Aid (in million US$) 21 52.9 23.4 22 108 Palestinian GDP (in billion US$) 21 8.9 4.9 3 17 Source: Author’s calculation based on the values in Table 6

Table 8: Correlation Coefficient for Swedish Aid and Palestinian GDP

Variable Swedish aid GDP of Palestine Swedish aid Pearson correlation 1 0.46 Sig. (two-tailed) 0.03 N 21 21 GDP of Palestine Pearson correlation 0.46 1 Sig. (two-tailed) 0.03 N 21 21 Source: Author’s calculation based on the values in Table 6.

Table 9: Correlation Coefficient and the Critical Value at 19 Degrees of Freedom

p-value (two-tailed test) r-statistic t-value at 19 df Hypothesis 0.03 0.46 2.25 Source: Author’s calculation based on the values in Table 6. To test the hypothesis, a two-tailed test is carried at a significance level of 0.05 and a critical value of (±1.96) with N-2 degrees of freedom (21-2=19). The result is displayed in Table 9, where the t-value of 2.25 is more than the critical value of 1.96, which means that we

29 reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis that there is a significant relationship between Swedish aid and Palestinian (GDP).

This result supports the two-gap model of economic growth theory and proves a positive relationship between Swedish aid and Palestinian GDP. Our results from the descriptive and inferential statistics concur with the theoretical expectations and support the two-gap model.

5.2 Summary

It is possible to check the positive or negative relationship between dependent and independent variables through quantitative analysis. In the quantitative analysis section, we observed that there is a significant and positive relationship between Swedish aid and Palestinian (GDP). However, to analyse the effectiveness of Swedish aid in the Palestinian context, quantitative analysis, and econometric models are unlikely to provide answers because specific conditions affect the effectiveness of Swedish aid in Palestine, which quantitative analysis and econometric models fail to recognize.

Therefore, in the next chapter, the author uses qualitative analysis and applies a mixed approach which enriches this study and provides a better understanding of the research questions. With the help of content analysis of leading newspaper articles complemented by experiences of the interviews for which the data has been gathered by administering semi- structured interviews in the field, the qualitative part will explore the links between the effectiveness of Swedish aid, corruption in the Palestinian Authority (PA), Israeli occupation and the impact of these variables on the Palestinian economy.

6. Empirical Section II

6.1 Qualitative Analysis – (Stage II)

By recalling Table 4 from chapter three and using the table as a roadmap for the empirical sections to answer research questions, the author monitors the progress and uses the table as a checklist for a thorough empirical analysis. In Table 4, under the quantitative analyses section, the author explored and examined the relationship between the dependent variable (Palestinian GDP) and the independent variable (Swedish aid). Now in the qualitative analysis stage (II), I have focused my research initially on analyzing articles from OmVärlden - a very influential and leading Swedish magazine that covers global affairs, including aid-related topics and issues

30 further to examine the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The author also conducted a supplementary study of Sweden’s largest and leading newspapers, Dagens Nyheter (DN) and Göteborgs-Posten (GP). After figuring out the appropriate search terms for the data, the author reviewed 176 articles from the OmVärlden, 87 from DN, and 37 from GP and created a coding scheme and set of rules to identify key sentences, concepts and words to address the relevant factor in the research question to examine the relationship between dependent and independent variables.

All thirty-three articles from OmVärlden, twenty-nine from DN, and fifteen from GP related to the keywords have been thoroughly researched and classified by statements that: (a) Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy; (b) Swedish aid has a negative impact on the Palestinian economy and (c) Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy (or synonyms for these words and similar concepts). Through deductive reasoning, the author tests the existing theory in Figure 8 and generated factors from the theory that takes the form of a coding system to find out the impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy. All related sentences, statements and quotes in an article discussing positive, negative or no impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy is used as measure and indicator.

To assess an article as a whole, the author used a system to analyze key quotes in each article and generated Table 10. The three boxes to the right of the first column correspond to key quote counts. There is a column for “positive (green color),” “negative (red color),” and “no impact (orange color).”

In each empty box triggered by the indicator and key quote applies, the author put X and zeros in the remaining boxes where the indicator does not apply. For instance, in article 1,2,3,6,8,10,14,15,16,17,18,19,21,27,31 (highlighted in the green color) - X corresponds to the article that clearly views Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy. In articles 4,7,9,12,20,23,24,25,26,28,29, and 30 (highlighted in the orange color) – X relates to the article that clearly views Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy. In articles 5,11,13,22, and 33 (highlighted in red), X is linked to the article that clearly views Swedish aid negatively impacts the Palestinian economy. To arbitrate and define the outcome, the author presents a set of tables (see Appendices 1, 2, and 3) where I justify the way I code the newspaper articles as a whole with two key pieces of data. First, the title of articles which in most cases overrule all other considerations in ultimately classifying an article.

Figure 8: Theory, Factor and Measure (Deductive Approach)

• Two-gap model of the economic growth theory Theory

• Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy. • Swedish aid has a negative impact on the Palestinian economy. Factor • Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy.

• Quotes, statements and sentences in a text discussing positive, negative or no impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy. Measure

Source: Author’s construction. For example, the title in DN article “Ompröva Palestinabistånd - Projektet är både enormt kostsamt och ineffektivt” is clearly hinting about the negative impact of the Palestinian aid that the project is both enormously costly and inefficient. Another article in DN, “Krisen i Mellanöstern: Svenskt bistånd ger palestinier job” refers to the positive impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy that Swedish aid is giving jobs to the Palestinians. Second, the author identified the most powerful quote and sentence in the text and listed it in case the reader wants to see the essential information. The author has provided a more comprehensive selection of key quotes that represent different positions related to the three possibilities represented in Appendices 1,2 and 3 that Swedish aid has a positive, negative, or no impact on the Palestinian economy.

Sixteen out of thirty-three articles in OmVärlden, all highlighted in green, which is 48.4% of the total number, correspond to the articles that view Swedish aid positively impacts the Palestinian economy. Five out of thirty-three articles which are 15.1% of the total number highlighted in red color refer to the articles that Swedish view aid negatively impacts the Palestinian economy. The remaining twelve out of thirty-three articles highlighted in orange color, which is 36.6%, show that Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy.

According to the results from Dagens Nyheter (DN) in Table 11, thirteen out of Twentynine articles are highlighted in green, 44.8% of the total number characterized that

Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy. Just three out of Twentynine articles, 10.3% of the total highlighted in red, indicate that Swedish aid negatively impacts the Palestinian economy. The remaining thirteen out of Twentynine articles highlighted in orange color, which is 44.8%, reveal that Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy.

Corresponding to the outcomes from Göteborgs-Posten (GP) outcomes in Table 12, only three of the fifteen articles are highlighted in green, which is 20% of the total number categorized that Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy. Five out of fifteen articles, which are 33.3% of the total number highlighted in red, suggest that Swedish aid negatively impacts the Palestinian economy. The remaining seven articles highlighted in orange colour, which is 46.6%, show that Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy.

The author has now analyzed articles, examined the relationship between dependent and independent variables, and answered the first research question: To what extent has Swedish aid significantly contributed to the Palestinian economy during the past two decades. In Figure 9, the author illustrates the total result from all three newspaper articles combined.

Out of seventy-seven total articles from OmVärlden, DN, and GP, only thirty-two articles suggest that Swedish aid positively impacts the Palestinian economy, 46% of the total percentage, is an area filled with green color. Thirteen out of seventy-seven articles suggest that Swedish aid has a negative impact on the Palestinian economy, which is 19% of the total percentage, filled with red color. The remaining thirty-two out of seventy-seven articles which is 35% of the total suggest that Swedish aid has no impact on the Palestinian economy, filled with orange color.

After answering the first research question in stage (I) and (II), I now turn to answer the second research question in stage (III), to what extent has aid effectiveness in Palestine been affected by corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation during the past two decades.

Table 10: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from OmVärlden

Article Indicator: Impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy (or Number synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Positive Negative No Impact 1 X 0 0 2 X 0 0 3 X 0 0 4 0 0 X 5 0 X 0 6 X 0 0 7 0 0 X 8 X 0 0 9 0 0 X 10 X 0 0 11 0 X 0 12 0 0 X 13 0 X 0 14 X 0 0 15 X 0 0 16 X 0 0 17 X 0 0 18 X 0 0 19 X 0 0 20 0 0 X 21 X 0 0 22 0 X 0 23 0 0 X 24 0 0 X 25 0 0 X 26 0 0 X 27 X 0 0 28 0 0 X 29 0 0 X 30 0 0 X 31 X 0 0 32 X 0 0 33 0 X 0 Total Number of Articles in 48.4% 15.1% 36.3% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on OmVärlden data search.

Table 11: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Dagens Nyheter (DN) Article Indicator: Impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy (or Number synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Positive Negative No Impact 1 0 0 X 2 0 0 X 3 X 0 0 4 X 0 0 5 X 0 0 6 0 0 X 7 0 0 X 8 X 0 0 9 0 0 X 10 X 0 0 11 X 0 0 12 X 0 0 13 X 0 0 14 X 0 0 15 0 X 0 16 0 0 X 17 0 0 X 18 X 0 0 19 0 X 0 20 0 0 X 21 X 0 0 22 0 0 X 23 0 X 0 24 X 0 0 25 0 0 X 26 0 0 X 27 X 0 0 28 0 0 X 29 0 0 X Total Number of Articles in 44.8% 10.3% 44.8% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on DN data search.

Table 12: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Göteborgs-Posten (GP) Article Indicator: Impact of Swedish aid on the Palestinian economy (or Number synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Positive Negative No Impact 1 0 X 0 2 0 0 X 3 0 0 X 4 0 X 0 5 X 0 0 6 0 0 X 7 X 0 0 8 0 X 0 9 0 X 0 10 X 0 0 11 0 0 X 12 0 0 X 13 0 0 X 14 0 X 0 15 0 0 X Total Number of Articles in 20% 33.3% 46.6% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on GP data search.

Figure 9: Impact of Swedish Aid on the Palestinian Economy - OmVärlden, DN and GP Articles Combined

35% 46%

19%

Positive Negative No Impact

Source: Author’s construction based on articles from OmVärlden, DN and GP.

6.2 Qualitative Analysis – (Stage III)

From chapter three, by recalling Table 4 again, under the quantitative analyses section (stage I) and qualitative analysis section (stage II), I explored and meticulously examined the relationship between the dependent variable (Palestinian GDP) and independent variable (Swedish aid) to answer the first research question.

In order to answer two sub-questions of the research, the theory section identified other factors that potentially affect aid effectiveness. Corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation are those two factors. The previous quantitative analysis studies do not address these factors because econometric approaches are unlikely to offer clear answers. Therefore, in this section (stage III), I will address the importance of occupation issues and problems attached to the governance practices of the Palestinian Authority in respect to aid effectiveness. I first build up two main sections focusing on analyzing articles from OmVärlden, Dagens Nyheter (DN), and Göteborgs-Posten (GP) to examine the relationship between Swedish aid effectiveness in Palestine considering factors such as the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA. The author reviewed 176 articles from the OmVärlden, 87 articles from DN, and articles 37 from GP and then created a coding scheme and set of rules to identify key sentences, concepts, and words to address the relevant factors in the sub-research questions to examine the relationship between variables.

All thirty-three articles from OmVärlden, twenty-nine from DN, and fifteen from GP that corresponds with aid effectiveness, Israeli occupation, and corruption in the Palestinian Authority have been carefully examined and categorized in three different categories: (a) aid effectiveness is constrained by corruption in the Palestinian Authority; (b) aid effectiveness is constrained by the Israeli occupation and (c) aid effectiveness is constrained both by the Israeli occupation and corruption (or synonyms for these words and similar concepts). This part of the research is carried out by inductive reasoning aiming to develop a theory and answer to what extent aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA.

Through inductive reasoning, the author aims to develop a theory and answer to what extent aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA. In Figure 10, the author generated a theory from the factors that take the form of a coding system to find out to what extent Swedish aid effectiveness in Palestine is affected by corruption in the PA, the Israeli occupation, or both, which affect the dependent variable

(Palestinian economy). All related sentences, statements, and quotes in an article discussing corruption and occupation in the Palestinian context are used as measures and indicators. Using the same system as the author utilized in stage (II), I make the article assessment based on analysing key quotes in each article and generated Table 13. The three boxes to the right of the first column correspond to key quote counts for each factor. There is a column for corruption, occupation, and both. In each empty box that is triggered by the indicator and key quote applies, the author put X and place zeros in the remaining boxes where the indicator does not apply.

Fourteen out of thirty-three articles in OmVärlden, 42.4% of the total number, correspond to the articles claiming aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by corruption in the PA. Sixteen out of thirty-three articles which are 48.4% of the total number, refer to the articles that claim aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by the Israeli occupation. The remaining three out of thirty-three articles which are 9% show that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by both the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA.

According to the results from Dagens Nyheter (DN) in Table 14, eighteen out of Twentynine articles, 62% of the total number, characterized that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by corruption in the PA. Eight out of Twentynine articles, 27.5% of the total number, indicate that the Israeli occupation constraints aid effectiveness in Palestine. The remaining three out of Twentynine articles, which is 10.3%, reveal that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by both the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA.

Results from Göteborgs-Posten (GP) in Table 15 indicate that nine out of fifteen articles which are 60% of the total number, categorized that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by corruption in the PA. Three out of fifteen articles which are 20% of the total number, suggest that the Israeli occupation constraints aid effectiveness in Palestine. The remaining three articles, which is also 20%, show that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by both the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA. In Figure 11, the author shows the combined result from all three newspaper articles. Out of seventy-seven total articles from OmVärlden, DN, and GP, only forty-one articles suggest that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by corruption in the PA, which is 53% of the total percentage. Twenty-seven out of seventy-seven articles indicate the Israeli occupation constraints that aid effectiveness in Palestine, which is 35% of the total percentage. The remaining nine out of seventy-seven articles, 12% of the total percentage, claim that aid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by both the Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA.

Figure 10: Measure, Factor and Theory (Inductive Approach)

• Quotes, statements and sentences in a text discussing the effect of corruption in the PA, the Israeli occupation or both on aid effectiveness. Measure

• Eid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by corruption in the PA. • Eid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by the Israeli occupation. • Eid effectiveness in Palestine is constrained by both corruption in the Factor PA and the Israeli occupation.

• The Israeli occupation and corruption in the PA constrain Swedish aid effectivenss in Palestine. Theory

Source: Author’s construction. Table 13: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from OmVärlden

Article Indicator: The effectiveness of Swedish aid is constrained by Number corruption in the PA, Israeli occupation, or both (or synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Corruption Occupation Both 1 0 X 0 2 X 0 0 3 0 X 0 4 0 0 X 5 X 0 0 6 X 0 0 7 0 X 0 8 0 X 0 9 0 X 0 10 0 X 0 11 X 0 0 12 X 0 0 13 X 0 0 14 0 X 0 15 0 X 0 16 0 X 0 17 X 0 0 18 0 X 0 19 0 X 0 20 0 X 0

21 0 X 0 22 X 0 0 23 X 0 0 24 X 0 0 25 X 0 0 26 X 0 0 27 0 X 0 28 0 0 X 29 0 0 X 30 X 0 0 31 0 X 0 32 0 X 0 33 X 0 0 Total Number of Articles in 42.4% 48.4% 9% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on OmVärlden data search. Table 14: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Dagens Nyheter (DN)

Article Indicator: The effectiveness of Swedish aid is constrained by Number corruption in the PA, Israeli occupation, or both (or synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Corruption Occupation Both 1 X 0 0 2 X 0 0 3 0 0 X 4 X 0 0 5 0 X 0 6 X 0 0 7 X 0 0 8 X 0 0 9 X 0 0 10 X 0 0 11 X 0 0 12 0 0 X 13 0 X 0 14 0 X 0 15 X 0 0 16 0 0 X 17 X 0 0 18 X 0 0 19 X 0 0 20 X 0 0 21 0 X 0 22 X 0 0 23 0 X 0

24 0 X 0 25 X 0 0 26 X 0 0 27 0 X 0 28 0 X 0 29 X 0 0 Total Number of Articles in 62% 27.5% 10.3% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on DN data search. Table 15: Coding System for Classifying Articles on Key Quotes from Göteborgs-Posten (GP)

Article Indicator: The effectiveness of Swedish aid is constrained by Number corruption in the PA, Israeli occupation, or both (or synonyms, or key phrases related to these words) Corruption Occupation Both 1 X 0 0 2 X 0 0 3 X 0 0 4 X 0 0 5 0 X 0 6 0 0 X 7 0 X 0 8 X 0 0 9 X 0 0 10 0 X 0 11 X 0 0 12 0 0 X 13 0 0 X 14 X 0 0 15 X 0 0 Total Number of Articles in 60% 20% 20% Percentage (100%) Source: Developed by the author based on GP data search.

Figure 11: The Effectiveness of Swedish Aid is Constrained by Corruption in the PA, Israeli Occupation, or both - Articles from OmVärlden, DN and GP Combined

12% Both

53% 35% Corruption Occupation

Source: Author’s construction based on articles from OmVärlden, DN and GP.

The author now complements this section with interviews and relates the interviews to the above findings. Besides numerous articles in OmVärlden, DN, and GP referring to corruption as one of the main factors affecting Swedish aid effectiveness, the persons interviewed for this study also addressed it. In Palestine, the origins of the corruption problem can be traced to the origins of the Fatah movement, which brought about a Palestinian national movement and the leadership of Fatah.

Corruption Factor

Yassir Arafat was the chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and simultaneously served as a president of the Palestinian Authority (PA) and held several other functions like the presidency of Fatah and the leadership of military and security groups. Yassir Arafat had all these powers not only because he was elected as an interim president of the PA in 1996 but also because he was the head of Fatah and PLO. According to the article by Ewa Björling, “Meningslöst strypa biståndet till Palestina” Arafat did not rule like a democratically elected leader and bypassed the representative bodies. Arafat, for many Palestinian people, is a symbolic leader of their struggle to fight the occupation. The Palestinians exonerated Arafat for almost every blunder he committed because of his qualities and what he did for the Palestinian people. After he died, Palestinian institutions took a step towards reform, and now Palestine has a Prime Minister and a president. The power is shared between the Prime

Minister, the president, and the ministers. The majority of the interviewees mentioned that only a single political faction dominates the PA, and it is the Fatah Movement that one person dominates. First, it was dominated by the late president Yassir Arafat and then by the current president Abu Mazin.

As one informant said: “Arafat was not just a person but a culture of domination and individualism, so when he died, nothing changed because it is not easy to change a culture or a system in a short time” (Aman, 2019). The culture of domination and individualism has been mentioned by Aman (2019), Saca (2019), and Abuarquob (2019). One Interview said: “since the formation of the PA, normal Palestinians suffer because of individualism, they control recruitment and jobs and I think the people will suffer for a long time because of current ruling philosophy even though the international community has helped us a lot in terms of financial aid, but I see no improvements.” (Saca, 2019).

According to Hassan Nahoum, “the Arafat culture exists almost everywhere in every institution of the Palestinian Authority, and there are Arafat(s) in almost every institution that’s controlled by the PA which President Arafat dominated. As long as there is Arafat culture, no amount of foreign assistance and aid from the international community would help fix this country” (Hassan-Nahoum, 2019). Another informant explained: “the former president Yassir Arafat acted as a monarch and Palestinians will suffer severely because of this ruling philosophy. The president acted as everything belonged to him; he was the interior minister, minister of health, education, social affairs, external affairs, the judge, and sometimes attorney general. This trend still exists among the current ruling class, so as long as this continues, there will be no improvements in any sector, and the economy would deteriorate” (Sacks, 2019).

While assessing various articles, the author observed that one potential constraint on corruption in Palestine is the judicial system. According to the World Bank, a well-functioning and independent judicial system is crucial for citizens to develop great expectations and confidence in legal protection, which profoundly affects economic growth and development. The judicial system has a crucial role in fighting corruption by holding accountable corrupt political and civil servants. The analysis from the articles revealed that the judiciary system in Palestine is weak; a vast number of cases do not go to trial, even murder cases. According to Justin Korda, Deputy CEO of Schusterman Foundation: “the current judicial system is one of the main causes of the economic deterioration. Funds are not often used for the projects they get the funding for in the first place; corrupt officials misuse it. Such behavior among the

43 officials of the PA has created animosity among the general public towards them” (Korda, 2019).

Corruption has made life difficult to live, and some even wish to live under the Israeli occupation so that they could at least enjoy order and discipline. One of the interviewees said that: “many people in Palestine miss the days of Israeli occupation because there was security, law and order” (Aman, 2019). Most of the interviewees referred to corruption as a problem in Palestine. There was a consensus among all interviewees except the interview with Hala Husni Fariz (the ambassador of Palestine in Sweden) that corruption in Palestine is on a massive scale. Ilan Ben Dov, who is the ambassador of Israel in Sweden, on the other hand, said: “corruption in Palestine is like cancer; its spreading, and I think recovery is almost impossible” (Ben Dov, 2019).

Certain interviewees said that corruption had compelled many donors to impose harsh policies, ultimately resulting in the deterioration of the Palestinian economy (Steinberg, 2019; Sacks, 2019; Aman, 2019; Abuarquob, 2019). One interview said: “Swedish aid requires Palestinian authorities to bring social, institutional, and economic reforms over the long term. The Palestinian authorities need to fight corruption, which is vital to the effectiveness of aid” (Frödin, 2019). Was further added by another informant that: “the PA must improve and bring reforms to become much better, even though the occupation has made them frustrated, but corruption has played a huge part in PA’s governance quality” (Etzell, 2019).

Given the data from the articles and interviews, the author finds that the governance practices of the Palestinian Authority play a significant role in aid effectiveness and the Palestinian economy. It was repeatedly mentioned in numerous articles and by several interviewees that the PA’s plans and activities are limited because of Israeli interference. One informant said: “whether its movement of goods or people, within the Palestinian territories, activities such as import and export during conflict period is almost impossible, so a lot of PA’s plans depend on their relationship with Israel and how Israel interferes” (Husni Fariz, 2019).

Occupation Factor

Now I use the data from articles and interviews to address how the occupation has affected aid effectiveness and the Palestinian economy. In an article by Ylva Bergman, "50 år av ockupation - en introduction" she talks about how when Israel occupied the WBGS in 1967, Israeli policies led Palestinian markets to become integrated with and dependent upon the Israeli economy. The Palestinian economy after the occupation suffered severely. The

44 infrastructure needed a comprehensive reconstruction program, a process that started with huge amounts of foreign aid. Since the signing and sealing of the Declaration of Principles between Israelis and Palestinians in September 1993, the international community has transferred a substantial amount of aid to support the pursuit of peace. The mobilization of economic resources had been intended to improve people's daily lives in the WBGS, increase the capacities of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and lay a potential foundation for future development. Despite decades of financial assistance, however, the economy of the WBGS did not fully recuperate. The Israeli occupation has distorted labor markets, infrastructure, private sector, public sector, and Palestinian financial system, which constrains aid effectiveness in Palestine.

In an article by Schachar Nathan in Dagens Nyheter (DN), “Krisen i Mellanöstern: Svenskt bistånd ger palestinier job” One of the most impressive assets of the Palestinian economy has been its human resources. They have scarce physical resources, and the Israeli restrictions on trade and utilization of natural resources such as water and land have left the Palestinians with no other choice than to compete in the regional market. One advantage in this competition has historically been Palestinians’ high quality of human capital which has been achieved through a good education standard. According to several past estimates, Palestinians in the region have one the highest ratios of university graduates.

An informant noted in the area of labor resources: “the occupation lures away the Palestinian labor force because many Palestinians go and work in Israel which discourages employment in Palestine especially in production and agriculture sectors” (Judelmen, 2019). Another informant added: “sovereign Palestinian state with an independent economy capable of sustainable growth is only possible when the occupation ends entirely” (Etzell, 2019). It was further pointed by an informant that: “first of all when the occupation ends and Israel leave and withdraw from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and give us back our water, land, olive trees, well and air, and we get leadership that is independent and decide how much aid is needed in which sector and were – only then can we start thinking about development and growth” (Saca, 2019). There was a consensus among the following interviewees: Husni Fariz (2019), Awwad (2019), Etzell (2019), Jonsäter (2019), Sobeh (2019), Frödin (2019), Duric (2019), Abuarquob (2019), and Saca (2019) that one of the reasons for the poor performance of the GDP was a decline in the employment of Palestinians working in Israel, which is because of Israeli closure policies. “The Israeli authorities restrict work permits for the Palestinian workers, and the Israeli economy adjusts now their labor demand by importing workers from the South Asian

45 and Eastern European countries to replace Palestinian workers” (Awwad, 2019). By Israeli closure policies, these interviewees related to occupation and lack of normalized relations.

In the area of infrastructure, an informant commented: “there is a dire need for the rehabilitation of infrastructure in the West Bank and Gaza Strip which has not changed much and looks to a great extent the same as it was before 1967 war and this cannot be fixed by foreign aid as long as the occupation continues” (Duric, 2019). Another informant added: “due to occupation the infrastructure has been severely damaged because of the nonstop military interventions which lead to further deterioration of the livelihood of the Palestinian people who live in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and every step is determined by the forces of conflict” (Abuarquob, 2019). One interview also highlighted that: “the interference of the Israeli military in the occupied Palestinian territory has gravely affected the infrastructure which is one of the reasons for a slow progress and weak economic growth despite millions of dollar aid from the international community” (Saca, 2019). The interviewee added that the current condition of physical infrastructure requires a complete reconstruction program from the government and international donor community through foreign aid, but the military interference makes things hard.

In the area of private sector, an informant commented that: “under the Oslo agreement, Palestinians can trade with other countries but again it all depends on Israel because all the borders are controlled by Israeli authorities, so Palestinian economy I can say has failed to rely on trade as a vehicle for economic growth and international donors can’t do anything about this” (Etzell, 2019). It was further added by one interview that: “to strengthen the economic situation in Palestine it’s important to empower Palestinians’ ability and capacity in the private sector because this will lead to sustainable development and economic growth and its only possible when Palestine gets full autonomy and independence” (Winstrand, 2019). Another informant mentioned that: “occupation has strained our livelihood here in Palestine, limiting our access to economic opportunities and decent jobs it has specifically impaired the private sector which has resulted in high levels of unemployment and inequality” (Abuarquob, 2019).

In the area of the public sector, an informant stated: “because of the closure policy and occupation many Palestinians are losing their jobs, so public sector needs to expand and focus on rehabilitation of these workers who are losing jobs and employ them in different economic sectors by creating new jobs for both skilled and unskilled workers, of course, aid money may

46 help the country temporarily however sustainable and long term solution requires independent state for the Palestinians” (Sobeh, 2019).

In the area of the financial system, an informant mentioned: “Palestinian financial system is losing a lot from this prolonged Israeli occupation, and there are direct and indirect financial losses resulting from the occupation, so imagine the amount of fiscal revenue that the Palestinian Authority could have raised if there was no occupation, and we had our currency and full control over the financial system. Even most foreign aid money is regulated by Israeli laws and channeled through their banks. They can freeze aid money whenever they want, and no one can question them” (Husni Fariz, 2019).

Through qualitative analysis in this section, the author thoroughly examined the relationship between the variables and answered to what extent Swedish aid effectiveness in Palestine is affected by corruption in the PA and the Israeli occupation. From the content analysis and interviews, we observed that corruption and occupation negatively influence aid effectiveness, affecting the Palestinian economy.

7. Conclusions

7.1 Introduction

In this chapter, the author summarizes the contributions of the thesis to the Swedish foreign aid impact on the Palestinian economy literature. The chapter discusses the main findings of the thesis and talks about every variable in a separate section below. It also looks at the interrelationships between the quantitative and qualitative findings. It briefly points out both the methodological and the empirical issues that have been raised in the study. On the methodological level, most foreign aid scholars have used a single research methodology to contribute to the ongoing debate about the impact of foreign aid on GDP (econometric approach), and no agreement has been reached regarding the results.

Besides testing the relationship between Swedish foreign aid and the Palestinian economy through quantitative techniques using secondary data, this thesis also explored qualitative methods by using primary data collected from the field. Empirically, the thesis discovered two main factors that influence Swedish aid effectiveness in Palestine. The two main factors that emerged are corruption in the PA and the Israeli occupation. Therefore, the study concludes that Swedish foreign aid alone does not create a failed or thriving economy; it

47 depends on the actors involved who make a difference, mainly recipients and donors, which in this case, Sweden is the donor and Palestine is the recipient.

7.2 Swedish Foreign Aid

The general research about foreign aid provided plenty of evidence showing a positive relationship between GDP and foreign aid in the literature review. The disagreement in the foreign aid literature among different scholars is based mainly on certain conditions required to make aid effective; for example, aid can have a positive effect on recipient economies if recipient needs and donor interests are not in conflict. There is a negative impact when there is a conflict of interest between the recipient government and the donor. In such cases, aid policy should be designed to suit the characteristics of the recipient government. Regardless of what motive foreign aid serves, one of its main objectives besides spurring growth is also to reduce poverty. In the Palestinian context, a considerable amount of foreign aid has been poured into the economy; unfortunately, the economic situation has deteriorated, and the economy’s ability to produce wealth is seriously compromised. Bennet et al. (2003) argued that in the Palestinian economy, the investment budget had been 100 percent financed by foreign aid, and it has never been a part of the Palestinian Authority’s fiscal policy. So, this means that one dollar of foreign aid is supposed to yield a dollar in terms of investment which has not been achieved in the Palestinian economy.

Literature addressing the problems of foreign aid effectiveness in general and precisely Swedish foreign aid effectiveness is minimal, as far as the economy of Palestine is concerned. However, after reviewing the literature on the relationship between foreign aid and GDP of several developing and least developed countries, the principal economic rationale for foreign aid before the 1990s was to increase economic growth in recipient countries. For decades, this has been the driving economic objective of aid that was established formally in the two-gap model. To test the relationship between Palestinian GDP and Swedish aid, this study tested the two-gap model of the economic growth theory first by quantitative approach in stage I (descriptive and inferential statistics) combined with qualitative research in stage II (content analysis). Through quantitative analysis, the study tested the relationship between dependent and independent variables, and we observed that there is a positive relationship between Swedish aid and Palestinian (GDP), and 46 percent of the total articles also claim that Swedish aid has a positive impact on the Palestinian economy during the content analysis (stage II). However, to analyze the effectiveness of Swedish aid in the Palestinian context, quantitative

48 analysis was unlikely to provide answers because specific conditions affect the effectiveness of Swedish aid in Palestine, which quantitative analysis and econometric models fail to recognize. Those specific conditions are because of two factors: Corruption in the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupation. The first research question was answered in stages I and II.

7.3 Corruption

There is consensus among scholars that the absence of corruption leads to economic growth in aid recipient countries; a claim reported in the World Bank “assessing aid” report claimed that the absence of corruption creates the right environment for foreign aid to increase GDP and economic growth. Corruption in the Palestinian Authority is one of the main factors that affect Palestinian GDP and aid effectiveness. Numerous articles from the leading newspapers in Sweden referred to corruption as one of the main factors affecting aid effectiveness; a factor also addressed by persons interviewed for this study. Given the data from the articles and interviews, the study finds that corruption in the Palestinian Authority plays a significant role in economic growth and aid effectiveness. 53% of the total articles directly claimed that the effectiveness of Swedish aid is constrained by corruption in the PA, 12% of the total articles claimed that the effectiveness of aid is constrained by corruption and occupation.

7.4 The Israeli Occupation

Corruption in the PA may play a distinct role when speaking about aid effectiveness and the Palestinian economy, but it is also essential to keep in mind the specifics of Palestine. Palestine has a history of ongoing bloodiest conflict with Israel, and the Israeli occupation has adversely affected the effectiveness of foreign aid in general. The political and military conflict between Israel and Palestine has helped limit economic growth within the West Bank and Gaza Strip (WBGS). The Israeli occupation in 1967 until now has affected Palestinian economic growth negatively. Apart from corruption, the Israeli occupation is also one of the main factors that affect Palestinian GDP and aid effectiveness. Numerous articles from the leading newspapers in Sweden referred to occupation as one of the main factors affecting aid effectiveness; a factor also addressed by persons interviewed for this study. Given the data from the articles and interviews, the study finds that occupation plays a significant role in economic growth and aid effectiveness. 35% of the total articles directly claimed that the Israeli occupation constrains the effectiveness of Swedish aid, 12% of the total articles claimed that aid is constrained by

49 occupation and corruption. In the next section, the author discusses and summarizes the main findings in Table 16. 7.5 Summary

Table 16: General Conclusions of the Thesis

Key Factors Key Findings Summary Assessment Swedish foreign aid A positive The result both from descriptive statistics relationship between and content analysis indicates that Swedish Swedish aid and aid has a positive and significant impact on Palestinian economy the Palestinian economy. (GDP) Corruption A negative From the articles through content analysis relationship between and interviews, we observed that corruption corruption in the PA in the Palestinian Authority is one of the and Swedish aid main factors that negatively influence the effectiveness Palestinian economy, which directly and indirectly affects aid effectiveness. The Israeli A negative From the articles through content analysis Occupation relationship between and interviews, we observed that the Israeli the Israeli occupation is also one of the main factors occupation and that negatively influence the Palestinian Swedish aid economy, which directly and indirectly effectiveness affects aid effectiveness. Source: Developed by the author. 7.6 Future Research

To test the relationship between aid effectiveness and GDP, quantitative models cannot provide concrete answers and have limitations. Qualitative study can provide some robust answers, and that is why more qualitative research is necessary, especially when the recipient of aid is a conflict-affected country. Further and thorough study is required to explore the impact of foreign aid in general and Swedish foreign aid, mainly how factors such as corruption and internal politics of aid recipient countries, conflict, and occupation affect economic growth and development.

8. References

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Appendix 1

Summary of Key Quotes Attached to Key Indicators in Each Article of OmVärlden

Article Author, Title, Key quotes, statements or sentences in the text (or Number Publication, Date synonyms, or key phrases related to the indicators) 1 Evin Incir, Anna “Europeiska skattebetalares bistånd till att bygga upp hem Sundström, Tajma och skolor för palestinier på palestinsk mark förstörs eller Sisic, “Alla konfiskeras systematiskt av israeliska myndigheter. Det är svenska partier oacceptabelt och måste omedelbart kompenseras av Israel.” måste ta ansvar för att få slut på Israels ockupation av Palestina,” OmVärlden, May 11, 2019. 2 Lars Adaktusson, “Svenskt bistånd ska vara effektivt och ställa krav på “Regeringen ser demokrati och mänskliga rättigheter. Därför är minskat stöd mellan fingrarna till Tanzania bra, men regeringen borde minska stödet till med Palestina och Irak på samma grunder.” oegentligheter,”

OmVärlden, March 04, 2019. 3 Ylva Bergman, “I Gaza – där är de forna flyktingarna numera är omgivna “Israel: The winner av en mur, stängsel och övervakningskameror, vaktade i takes it all,” himlen och till havs, kan palestinierna inte ta sig någonstans OmVärlden, May utan israelernas tillåtelse. De flesta överlever på 15, 2018. internationellt bistånd, många är välutbildade och kreativa, långt ifrån alla är fanatiska terrorister så som de ofta målas upp, 60 procent är arbetslösa.” 4 Ylva Bergman, “En av de främsta stridsfrågorna är biståndet till Palestina, “Sanning, lögn och och tongångarna är bitvis hårda. Men kritiken är inte ny. medveten Under en längre tid har debattörer och politiker hävdat att påverkan,” bistånd går till organisationer som är anti-israeliska, anti- OmVärlden, semitiska och att det stödjer terrorgrupper. Många av dessa August 30, 2018. anklagelser kommer från en källa, NGO Monitor, eller från organisationer som liknar denna.” 5 Ylva Bergman och “Liberalerna vill skära ned på biståndet till Palestina. I Josefine Elfström, skuggbudgeten för 2018 skriver partiet att Länder som “Liberalerna vill genomför goda reformer ska belönas för det. Länder som strypa bistånd till tvärtom går längre ifrån en demokratisering måste få Palestina,” mindre bistånd. Ett tydligt exempel på kravlöst bistånd är OmVärlden, stödet till Afghanistan och den palestinska myndigheten.” October 26, 2017. 6 Victoria Gillberg “Igår skrev statsminister Stefan Löfven och Palestinas och Erik Halkjaer, president Mahmoud Abbas under ett femårigt avtal om “Sveriges utvecklingssamarbete på 1,5 miljarder kronor. Samtidigt biståndssamarbete underströk Löfven vikten av att Abbas måste ta krafttag med Palestina hotas mot den utbredda korruptionen. En verklighet som den av utbredd svenska Riksrevisionen mött.” corruption,” OmVärlden, February 11, 2015. 7 Emanuel Sidea, “Sveriges erkännande av Palestina har orsakat frostiga “Israel beslagtar relationer till Israel. Bakom kulisserna pågår också en svenskt bistånd i dragkamp med Israel om svenskfinansierade Palestina,” biståndsprojekt på de palestinska områdena. OmVärlden OmVärlden, har tagit del av dokument som visar att Israel har December 09, konfiskerat en vattenanläggning som Sverige har bekostat.” 2014.

8 David Grossman, “Palestina får långt mer bistånd per capita än något annat “Palestina tar emot land. Palestina är otroligt biståndsberoende, säger Ulrika mest svenskt Modéer, statssekreterare för biståndet. Enligt bistånd per capita,” biståndsministerns statssekreterare Ulrika Modéer är det OmVärlden, inte alltid de fattigaste människorna som får bistånd. Inte October 06, 2015. generellt. Vi säger att bistånd ska ges till de fattigaste människorna, men det finns ett bredare perspektiv på fattigdom som innefattar till exempel även demokrati och mänskliga rättigheter.”

9 OV, “De vanligaste “Syftet med det nuvarande svenska biståndet till Palestina anklagelserna - så är att stödja palestinskt statsbyggande och bistå palestinier attackeras biståndet att bo kvar. Det är viktigt att komma ihåg att de palestinska till Palestina,” områdena är ockuperat av Israel, eller blockerade, och att OmVärlden, bosättningspolitiken fortgår, att människor tvingas bort från August 30, 2018. sina hem och att rörelsefriheten kontrolleras av israelisk militär i många områden.” 10 Ylva Bergman, “I juni 2017 är det 50 år sedan Israel ockuperade “Johan Schaar: En Västbanken, Sinai, Gaza och Golanhöjderna. Trots flera systematisk försökt till fred och försoning har situationen inte blivit smutskastning av bättre på de ockuperade områdena. Flera fredsförsök har ockupationens fallerat, en mur har byggts våld har eskalerat i perioder, två kritiker,” uppror har kväst och bosättningarna har ökat från noll till OmVärlden, June närmare 600.000 på Västbanken och i Östra Jerusalem. 03, 2017. Förstörelse av biståndsfinansierade byggnader som skolor, vattencisterner och tält är ett återkommande problem – trots protester från det internationella samfundet.” 11 Agneta Carleson, “Palestina fick 490 miljoner svenska biståndskronor förra “Liberalerna: året via Sida och var därmed det femte största Palestinabiståndet mottagarlandet, efter Afghanistan, Tanzania, Mocambique är kravlöst och bör och Somalia. Jag upplever att Sverige är närmast helt göras om i kravlöst gentemot PLO (den inofficiella palestinska grunden,” regeringen) och palestinska ledare. PLO betalar ut lön till OmVärlden, personer som är dömda för terroristbrott. Det kan handla om August 08, 2018. personer som har dödat obeväpnade människor, barn och gamla, och som nu betraktas som hjältar. Man uppkallar skolor, torg och gator efter människor som begått verkligt bestialiska handlingar. Jag tycker inte att det är rimligt att vi så okritiskt slussar biståndsmedel till den typen av administrationer, säger Fredrik Malm.” 12 Editorial offices, “Kritiker anser att biståndet är kravlöst. Men biståndet till “Hit går det Palestina följer samma riktlinjer och krav som ställs på alla svenska biståndet biståndsmottagare. Det handlar om några öronmärkta, till Palestina,” riktade insatser, men inget icke-öronmärkt budgetstöd går OmVärlden, in i den Palestinska myndigheten (PA). Till historien hör att August 30, 2018. det direktstöd som tidigare fanns avvecklades av Sverige och andra givare i samband med Hamas valseger 2006 för att undvika risken att en då nyligen terroriststämplad organisation indirekt skulle få stöd.” 13 Axel Kronholm, “Ihop med de andra Allianspartierna har Moderaterna “Moderaterna vill ifrågasatt regeringens bistånd till Palestina. Jonas se närmare Jacobsson-Gjörtler ställde själv en skriftlig fråga till samarbete mellan biståndsministern i vilken han undrar hur hon och bistånd och regeringen säkerställer att den palestinska myndigheten och militär,” andra aktörer i området uppfyller kraven på demokratiska OmVärlden, principer, respekt för mänskliga rättigheter och korruption August 06, 2018. som gäller för att få svenskt bistånd.” 14 Axel Kronholm, “Israelisk militär har förstört en svenskfinansierad “Israel rev svenskt vattenreservoar som försåg palestinska familjer och biståndsprojekt,” jordbrukare med vatten. Det var den 9 december som

OmVärlden, vattenreservoaren i det palestinska samhället Einnoun, på December 16, ockuperade Västbanken, förstördes av israeliska 2019. militärstyrkor. Vattnet från reservoaren försåg 200 familjer i området med vatten och användes även för att bevattna jordbruksmark. Vattenreservoaren, värd över en halv miljon kronor, var betald för med svenskt bistånd och hade byggts av hjälporganisationen Oxfam ihop med lokala partnerorganisationer.” 15 Charlotta Asplund “Vi började året med 446 miljoner dollar i underskott – mer Catot, “En miljon än en tredjedel av vår budget – men avslutade året med att palestinska ha fyllt upp det tomrummet. Det är en fantastisk framgång, flyktingar kan snart säger Mattias Schmale och understryker att bland annat EU stå utan mat från och Sverige spelade en viktig roll, både för att de sköt till FN,” OmVärlden, mer pengar men framför allt för att de förmådde andra May 27, 2019. länder att bidra.” 16 Ylva Bergman, “50 “I en serie artiklar tittar Omvärlden närmare på läget på de år av ockupation - ockuperade områdena. Antalet israeliska bosättare har ökat en introduction,” och uppskattas till cirka 600 000 på Västbanken och i Östra OmVärlden, March Jerusalem, mark konfiskeras och många palestinier vräks 21, 2018. från sina hem. Biståndsfinansierade byggnader rivs. Sveriges utvecklingsbistånd i Palestina uppgår till ungefär 500 miljoner kronor per år och fokuserar på demokrati, mänskliga rättigheter, jämställdhet, miljö, klimat, katastrofberedskap och privatsektorutveckling. Palestina är en av de största mottagländerna för svenskt bistånd. Sverige är också en av de största givarna till UNRWA, FN:s hjälporgan för palestinska flyktingar.” 17 Agneta Carleson, “Absolut. Vi ska ställa krav på den palestinska myndigheten “Socialdemokratern och det gör vi också. Regeringen och även a: Israeliska socialdemokraterna har under senare år blivit mer och mer bosättare påverkar tydliga i kontakterna med de palestinska myndigheterna alliansens syn på och Fatah, vårt socialdemokratiska systerparti, bland annat Palestinabiståndet,” när det gäller arbetet mot korruption. Vi är väldigt kritiska OmVärlden, till Hamas och kan aldrig tänka oss att samarbeta med dem.” August 14, 2018. 18 Axel Kronholm, “50 år efter att Israels ockupation av Palestina inleddes river “Israel fortsätter att israeliska myndigheter fortfarande civila byggnader. riva bistånd,” OmVärlden har tidigare rapporterat om europeisk OmVärlden, June frustration över att biståndsmedel går upp i rök när 01, 2017. biståndsfinansierade projekt rivs. En majoritet av de svenska riksdagspartierna vill att EU kräver tillbaka pengar från Israel.” 19 Mikael Färnbo, “UNRWA utför en viktig humanitär gärning och har en “UNRWA bankrutt stabiliserande effekt på en region som är hårt drabbad av - nu försöker konflikt och extremism, säger biståndsminister Isabella Sverige hjälpa,” Lövin i ett pressmeddelande. Sverige har ett långt och nära OmVärlden, March samarbete med UNRWA. Förra året var Sverige 05, 2018. organisationens fjärde största givare.” 20 Ylva Bergman, “Den 6:e februari antogs en lag i Knesset, som legaliserar “Slutet för israeliska byggnader på palestinsk mark. Lagen är

tvåstatslösningen? kontroversiell och kommer troligen att hävas av Högsta Så är livet i en av domstolen. Lagen visar att Israel inte avser att avsluta de drabbade ockupationen eller ge tillbaka land, skriver B’Tselem i ett byarna,” pressmeddelande. OmVärlden har tidigare rapporterat om OmVärlden, att flera byggnader som den israelsiska försvarsmakten February 15, 2017. förstört har varit skolor, solpaneler och annat som finansierats av det internationella biståndet.” 21 David Grossman, “Annekteringen har dock hunnit bli en diplomatisk fråga “Ambassadör: mellan Israels ambassad i Sverige och den svenska Sverige skyller allt regeringen. I samband med att regeringen i slutet av juni som är fel på presenterade ny strategi för utvecklingssamarbete med Israel,” Palestina för perioden 2020–2024, med ett totalt stöd på 1,5 OmVärlden, July miljarder kronor, skrev Peter Eriksson att en annektering är 02, 2019. i strid mot folkrätten och försvårar förutsättningarna för en fredlig och förhandlad tvåstatslösning.” 22 OV, “Påstående: “PEGASE administreras av EU och har tre så kallade Sverige betalar fönster: att bidra till löner och pensioner för särskilt löner till Hamas behövande PA-anställda inom utbildnings- och och terrorister i hälsosektorn, att ge socialhjälp till fattiga familjer och att ge Gaza,” OmVärlden, stöd till de sex palestinska sjukhusen i östra Jerusalem, i August 30, 2018. stort sett de enda palestinska institutionerna där sedan Israel tvingat andra att stänga. Sverige har sedan starten bidragit till det första fönstret men har nu beslutat att fasa ut stödet.” 23 Mikael Färnbo, “Det vi kritiserat främst är biståndet till den palestinska “Sverigedemokrate myndigheten och att vi tycker att man ska ställa högre krav rn: Biståndet ska och villkor. Ska man ge bistånd som på något sätt minska kanaliseras dit, direkt eller indirect.” invandringen,” OmVärlden, August 10, 2018. 24 Mikael Färnbo och “I augusti 2018 beslöt den amerikanske presidenten Donald Ylva Bergman, Trump att dra in det amerikanska biståndet till UNWRA “Kronprinsessan och många oroar sig nu för vad som kommer att hända Victoria i flyktingarna. Sverige har tillsammans med bland annat Mellanöstern: Jordanien protesterat kraftfullt mot det amerikanska Klockan tickar för agerandet och tagit initiativ för att försöka fylla det klimatet,” finansieringsgap som öppnat sig. Att kronprinsessparet OmVärlden, besökte UNWRA-läger och skolor under sitt officiella October 19, 2018. besök kan tolkas som en viktig markering från Sveriges håll till stödet för FN-organet, och för de palestinska flyktingarnas allt mer utsatta situation.” 25 James Rein loch “Belgien, Nederländerna och Schweiz har på grund av Mikael Färnbo, anklagelserna tillfälligt fryst sitt bistånd till UNRWA. “FN skakat av flera Sverige har dock valt att fortsätta betala. Senast i augusti pågående skandaler betalades 436 miljoner. Enligt biståndsminister Peter – korruption, Eriksson avvaktar Sverige den oberoende utredning som nepotism och just nu utförs av FN:s reviosionsbyrå IOIS.” maktmissbruk,” OmVärlden, August 21, 2019.

26 Amanda Saveland, “Sveriges stöd till Palestina bör ses över Palestina är den “Allt fler biståndsmottagare som tar emot mest svenskt bistånd per människor på person. Det visar en undersökning som OmVärlden jorden, en bagatell publicerade förra veckan. Nu menar kristdemokraten enligt Rosling,” Mikael Oscarsson att biståndet måste kontrolleras OmVärlden, noggrannare för att säkerställa att stödet inte hamnar i fel October 16, 2015. händer.” 27 Björn Widmark, “Sverige är en av de största givarna av bistånd i Gaza och “Stopp för svenska ger årligen nästan 70 miljoner i humanitärt stöd till utsatta i diplomater skadar Gaza. Men utan personal på plats blir det svårt att följa upp biståndet till Gaza,” projekten och hålla koll på utvecklingen.” OmVärlden, May 31, 2017. 28 Axel Kronholm, “I de valintervjuer som OmVärlden gjort framkommer att “Fem stridsfrågor flera oppositionspartier är kritiska till biståndet till för biståndet i Palestina. valet,” OmVärlden, Detta bistånd kritiseras starkast av Liberalernas Fredrik September 03, Malm, och beskrivs som "kravlöst" och något som bör 2018. göras om i grunden. Liknande kritik har framförts av Sverigedemokraterna, Kristdemokraterna och Moderate rna. Centerpartiets kritik har framför allt rört frågan om transparens. Socialdemokraternas utrikespolitiska talesperson Kenneth G Forslund kritiserar oppositionspartierna "helt klart influerats av propagandan som kommer från de israeliska bosättarna". Det gäller även Kristdemokraterna och framför allt Sverigedemokraterna, som verkligen har svalt den högerradikala bosättaragendan, säger han. Biståndsminister Isabella Lövin, språkrör för Miljöpartiet, försvarar i intervjun med OmVärlden biståndet till Palestina.” 29 Agneta Carleson, “Det var bra och modigt av regeringen att erkänna “Vänsterpartiet: Palestina, och biståndet till det palestinska civilsamhället är Stopp för bistånd viktigt. Att stödet väcker debatt beror på att det berör kärnan till i konflikten, det vill säga den israeliska ockupationen av flyktingmottagande palestinska områden, menar Jonas Sjöstedt. ,” OmVärlden, – Delar av borgerligheten, men inte hela, ursäktar Israels August 13, 2018. ockupation. Men det är ockupationen och bosättningarna som är grunden till konflikten. Han anser att det är oerhört viktigt att stödja civila palestinska organisationer så att de en dag kan vara med och bygga ett fritt Palestina. – Att de får stöd är inte detsamma som att ursäkta de fel som begås av den palestinska myndigheten. Vi försvarar aldrig våld mot civila, och det finns en betydande korruption i Palestina. Men allt försvåras av den israeliska ockupationen.” 30 Mikael Färnbo, “Nyheten om UNRWA hakade i den debatt som länge “Veckan då marken pågått om det svenska Palestina-biståndet. I OmVärldens skakade under partiintervjuer inför valet 2018, liksom i riksdagsdebatter biståndet,” och flera debattartiklar de senaste åren, har det svenska

OmVärlden, biståndet till Palestina kritiserats hårt från främst September 07, Liberalerna, Kristdemokraterna, Moderaterna och 2019. Sverigedemokraterna.” 31 Erik Halkjaer, “Under årets första tio månader har Israel förstört fler än “Israel förstör 500 hem och byggnader på Västbanken, varav flera projekt svenskfinansierade finansierats av svenskt bistånd. Närmare 800 palestinier, biståndsprojekt på varav hälften barn, har blivit hemlösa.” Västbanken,” OmVärlden, November 06, 2019. 32 Ylva Bergman och “Solpaneler från Danmark, Norge och Sverige, en lekplats Axel Kronholm, från Belgien och en skola från EU. Det är exempel på “Israel förstör bistånd som förstörs av Israel. Hittills i år har mer förstörts bistånd för än under hela 2015, enligt OCHA. Nu vill en majoritet av miljoner,” riksdagspartierna att EU kräver tillbaka pengar från Israel. OmVärlden, June – Det känns totalt meningslöst, säger en biståndsarbetare.” 09, 2016. 33 Markus Engstrand, “Sverige kan inte ha en regering som okritiskt stödjer en “Utrotningsturism, korrumperad regim och delar ut bistånd till terrorism, drömdiktaturer och fastslår Lars Adaktusson, Europaparlamentariker (KD), i terrorstöd,” SvD. Han påstår att en ansenlig del svenska biståndspengar OmVärlden, till Palestina går till att bland annat stödja och försörja December 08, terrordömda palestinier. Adaktusson kräver att 2016. utrikesminister Margot Wallström gör något åt saken.” Source: Developed by the author based on articles from OmVärlden.

Appendix 2

Summary of Key Quotes Attached to Key Indicators in Each Article of Dagens Nyheter (DN)

Article Author, Title, Publication, Key quotes, statements or sentences in the Number Date text (or synonyms, or key phrases related to the indicators) 1 Adam Svensson, “USA:s “Försöken att kompensera för det finansiella biståndsbeslut rör upp känslor bortfallet som USA:s beslut innebär kommer i Palestina,” Dagens Nyheter, att diskuteras under ett FN-möte den 27 September 01, 2018. september, som Jordanien tillsammans med Japan, EU, Sverige och Turkiet står värd för.” 2 Sanna Torén Björling, “Även om de borgerliga partierna inte är sena “Margot Wallström, Ett SD att kritisera regeringen för vad man benämner med inflytande vore absolut som plakatpolitik - den feministiska förödande,” Dagens Nyheter, utrikespolitiken, kampanjen till säkerhetsrådet August 17, 2018. och för erkännandet av Palestina – ser man överlag en fortsatt samsyn i övergripande frågor.” 3 DN, “Utgiftsmålet för bistånd “Efter återkommande krig i Gaza lever fyra av kritiseras,” Dagens Nyheter, fem Gazabor på humanitärt stöd. Det privata October 25, 2017. näringslivet har i princip ingen möjlighet att

exportera och arbetslösheten är stor. Palestinska myndigheter har dessutom begränsat inflytande över Gaza som i princip styrs av Hamas. Svenskt bistånd har här som mål att utveckla demokrati med religionsfrihet, respekt för mänskliga rättigheter och jämställdhet.” 4 Erik Helmerson, “Erik “Lövin svarade att Sverige gör så gott det går. Helmerson: Befria Najat Abu Det finns ett ömsesidigt åtagande att verka för Bakr,” Dagens Nyheter, demokratisering och ökad respekt för March 09, 2016. mänskliga rättigheter samt jämställdhet i Palestina” 5 Marianne Björklund, “Inte ett av de 19.000 hus som bombades “Framtidstron dör i ruinerna,” sönder har byggts upp. Av de 3,5 miljarder Dagens Nyheter, June 28, dollar som det internationella samfundet 2015. utlovade har bara 27 procent betalats ut.”

6 Amanda Sokolnicki, “Öka “Om Sverige ska vara en humanitär stormakt trycket på Hamas,” Dagens måste vi uttrycka starkt stöd för Nyheter, May 04, 2015. demokratisering av de palestinska områdena.” 7 Nathan Shachar, “Den fredlige “UNRWA:s stora givare, till vilka Sverige hör, diktatorn,” Dagens Nyheter, måste nu avgöra om de skall försöka gå in med February 08, 2015. belopp stora nog att ersätta USA:s andel - en tredjedel av UNRWA:s budget.” 8 Nathan Shachar, “Regimen “Bassam Zakarne, ordförande för tystade tungt fackförbund,” fackförbundet Naqabet al-muwadhafiin, som Dagens Nyheter, January 18, organiserar de palestinska statliga verkens 2015. drygt 20 000 kontorsanställda, säger till DN att han är glad över Sveriges Palestina- erkännade: – Men jag hoppas att Sverige och Europa inte nöjer sig med detta, utan ser till att det Palestina de erkänner blir ett öppet samhälle och inte en polisstat.” 9 Ola Westerberg, “Wallström “Hon är kritisk mot att den förra regeringen vill vara rak mot Ryssland,” skar ner på den typen av demokratibistånd just Dagens Nyheter, January 11, när den behövdes som bäst.” 2015. 10 Ove Bring, Said Mahmoudi, “Sverige har redan i dag omfattande Pål Wrange, “Ett erkännande förbindelser med Palestina. Bistånd ges till den av Palestina har stöd av vår palestinska myndigheten genom avtal med tids folkrätt,” Dagens Nyheter, PLO.” October 20, 2014. 11 Erik Helmerson, “Sidas informationsregler ses nu över, och det “Mellanöstern: Betala vore inte helt orimligt om mer pengar i propagandan ur egen framtiden gick till bistånd i stället för plånbok,” Dagens Nyheter, propaganda. Sida reagerade också nyktert på November 10, 2011. avslöjandet; i tidningen Dagen konstaterade kommunikationschefen Joachim Beijmo att skriften knappast var förenlig med

huvuduppdraget, som är att öka kunskapen om bistånds- och utvecklingsfrågor.” 12 Ulf Carmesund, “Upprörande “I dag ger Sverige bistånd till palestinier för att passivitet hos svenska de ska lära sig mänskliga rättigheter, men när präster,” Dagens Nyheter, skall Sverige sätta kraft bakom kravet att October 27, 2011. folkrätt och mänskliga rättigheter gäller även staten Israel?” 13 Marianne Björklund, “EU “Samtidigt uppmanas Israel att omedelbart skärper tonen mot Israel Krav öppna gränserna mot Gaza så att bistånd, på att östra Jerusalem blir handelsvaror och privatpersoner kan passera.” huvudstad i självständigt Palestina,” Dagens Nyheter, December 09, 2009. 14 Robert Holender, “Direktör “Syftet med projekten i Palestina var att stödja misstänkt i biståndshärva på lokala handelskammare för att få fart på Sida,” Dagens Nyheter, näringslivet.” October 08, 2008. 15 Anders Isaksson, “Vit mans “Regeringen Reinfeldts beslut häromveckan att börda Kolumnen: Anders skänka ytterligare 50 miljoner kronor till den Isaksson om intressena i djupt korrupta palestinska regeringen är ännu biståndspolitiken,” Dagens ett vittnesbörd om glidningen från hjälp till Nyheter, August 09, 2008. nykolonialism. Sveriges formella mål att skapa förutsättningar för fattiga människor att förbättra sina levnadsvillkor kan tyckas lagom beskedligt, men i biståndets verkliga värld av budgetstöd till regeringar omfördelas pengar från låg- och medelinkomsttagare i rika länder till höginkomsttagare i fattiga länder.” 16 Peter Löfgren, “Ormen som “Dåvarande statssekreteraren för det svenska närdes av väst,” Dagens biståndet, Mats Karlsson, blev upprörd när jag Nyheter, May 02, 2008. frågade om det var rätt att ge bistånd till en diktatur. Du måste väl förstå att det tar tid att ställa om från att vara ockuperad till att bli samhällsbyggare, sa Karlsson.” 17 Uffe Ellemann-Jensen, Lena “Den finansiella bojkotten som innebär att Hjelm-Wallén, Pär Stenbäck, hjälp till Palestina dirigeras förbi den “Ursäkterna är dåliga för vår palestinska myndigheten, har inte lett till nordiska passivitet,” Dagens minskat bistånd. I stället har den lett till en Nyheter, May 20, 2007. process som är mindre transparent och mindre effektiv. Detta har försvagat de palestinska institutioner som mödosamt byggts upp. Bistånd borde därför ges via det palestinska finansministeriet som nu leds av en allmänt ansedd minister.” 18 Marianne Björklund, “EU “För att ändå stödja det palestinska folket har gläntar på dörren för ny man valt att betala ut pengar utan att de palestinsk regering,” Dagens passerar Hamas händer och går till hälsovård, Nyheter, September 15, 2006. bensin och de mest behövande palestinierna. Totalt har EU-kommissionen betalat ut 90 miljoner euro på detta sätt. Vid fredagens möte

väntas ministrarna besluta om att förlänga biståndssystemet tre månader.” 19 Ewa Björling, “Meningslöst “Sanningen är den att vårt bistånd under lång strypa biståndet till Palestina,” tid gått till den palestinska myndigheten och Dagens Nyheter, January 29, Arafats korrupta regim. Sverige har varit och är 2006. en av de största biståndsgivarna, vilket också starkt ifrågasatts under en lång tid. Biståndet har till stor del resulterat i att vi under många år stöttat en korrupt regim, något som också många palestinier själva uttrycker.” 20 Marianne Björklund, “EU- “EU är de palestinska myndigheternas största ledare oroliga efter Hamas biståndsgivare. Förra året betalades 500 seger,” Dagens Nyheter, miljoner euro ut, varav 280 miljoner kom från January 26, 2006. EU:s gemensamma budget och resten från de enskilda medlemsstaterna. EU:s utrikespolitiske talesman, Javier Solana, har tidigare varnat för att EU kan frysa sitt ekonomiska bistånd till palestinska områden om Hamas ingår i Palestinas nästa regering. I EU:s ögon är Hamas en terroristorganisation som inte drar sig för våld och vill förgöra Israel.” 21 Laila Freivalds, “Israels reträtt “Den försämrade situationen har inneburit att ur Gaza bara ett första steg,” det internationella biståndet, inklusive Dagens Nyheter, August 14, Sveriges, till stor del har kommit att skifta från 2005. mer långsiktigt utvecklingssamarbete till rent katastrofstöd. Utvecklingen är djupt oroväckande och ställer givarsamfundet inför ett svårt dilemma. Nu finansierar bland annat svenska medel en verksamhet som ockupationsmakten Israel, enligt internationell rätt, skall ansvara för. Samtidigt kan vi konstatera att stödet i många fall utgör skillnaden mellan total misär och en möjlighet att klara vardagens nödtorft. Därför kommer Sverige att fortsätta ge bistånd till de palestinska områdena, för att lindra de humanitära effekterna av den pågående konflikten.” 22 DN, “Export av demokrati ny “Att finansiera formaldemokratiska val av nisch i biståndspolitiken,” odemokratiska ledare är inga lyckade exempel Dagens Nyheter, December på bistånd.” 13, 2004. 23 Jan Bjerninger och Johan “Under de senaste tio åren har Sverige och Schaar, “Ompröva andra biståndsgivare satsat miljarder på Palestinabistånd. Projektet är uppbyggnaden av ett fungerande och både enormt kostsamt och livskraftigt palestinskt samhälle. Vi har försökt ineffektivt, menar ansvariga bygga upp infrastrukturen och tillhandahållit Sida chefer,” Dagens Nyheter, utbildning. Vi har arbetat för en god hälsovård April 08, 2004. och skyddet av de mänskliga rättigheterna. Den

israeliska ockupationen har slagit sönder både ekonomin och viktiga samhällsfunktioner på Västbanken och Gaza. I dag lever en stor del av palestinierna i en katastrofliknande situation. Och läget blir värre för varje dag som går.” 24 Schachar Nathan, “Krisen i “Vi tackar Sveriges folk och dess regering för Mellanöstern: Svenskt bistånd att de står oss bi under denna svåra tid, sade ger palestinier job,” Dagens Mustafa, som sade att pengarna bland annat Nyheter, February 01, 2002. kommer att läggas på sysselsättningsprojekt, restaurering av historiska byggnader, människorättsfrågor och demokratisk fostran av den unga generationen.” 25 Isaksson Anders, “Valet till palestinsk president den 9 januari “Demokratiska val riskerar bli betalas också till större delen av EU:s överrock åt makten,” Dagens medlemsländer och kommer att övervakas av Nyheter, January 09, 2005. bortåt tusen observatörer, därav elva från Sverige och hela 30 ledamöter från EU- parlamentet.” 26 Nathan Shachar, “USA “Det enda som nu återstår i korgen av avbryter bistånd till amerikanskt bistånd är finansieringen, en halv Palestina,” Dagens Nyheter, miljard kronor, av ”Dayton-projekten”; September 15, 2018. vardagsnamnet på de palestinska säkerhetsstyrkor som rekryterades och tränades av USA - och Sverige - efter det palestinska självstyrets sammanbrott 2003.” 27 Nathan Shachar, “USA “Historieböckerna är och förblir UNRWA:s stoppar allt stöd till akilleshäl. Men utan dess service – skolor, flyktingorgan – palestinier går sjukvård, matransoner - kommer miste om miljarder,” Dagens hundratusentals personer att hamna i nöd. På de Nyheter, August 31, 2018. ockuperade områdena och i Jordanien finns lokala myndigheter som delvis kan ersätta uteblivet bistånd. Men i Libanon, där flyktingarna dels saknar medborgarskap, dels hålls kort av speciella lagar, är det svårt att se något alternativ till UNRWA på kort sikt.” 28 DN, “Wallström på “Inför resan har flera krävt att regeringen ska Västbanken.” Dagens ställa högre krav på den palestinska regimen Nyheter, December 16, 2016. som anklagas för brott mot mänskliga rättigheter och korruption. Wallström har själv sagt att palestinierna måste skärpa” sig. På plats i Ramallah säger Wallström att hon har tagit upp frågorna när hon har träffat palestinska ledare. – Vi har diskuterat detta i alla möten. Vi kommer som vänner, men riktiga vänner kan också vara kritiska. Särskilt om de erbjuder bistånd och hjälp.” 29 Erik Helmerson, “Korruption “I fredags hölls en interpellationsdebatt i och terror i Palestina,” Dagens riksdagen mellan kristdemokraten Mikael Nyheter, March 10, 2016. Oscarsson och biståndsminister Isabella Lövin

(MP). Ämnet var bistånd till den palestinska myndigheten, bakgrunden är att den har så svårt att ta avstånd från knivattackerna mot civila israeler. Så sent som på tisdagen skedde fem knivskärningar, med en död och tio skadade. Oscarsson pekade på hur gator namnges efter terrorister, hur videor pumpas ut med direkt antisemitisk propaganda, hur skolorna lär ut hat mot judar. Lövin svarade att Sverige gör så gott det går. Det finns ett ömsesidigt åtagande att verka för demokratisering och ökad respekt för mänskliga rättigheter samt jämställdhet i Palestina. Det är ju fint. Frågan är hur den palestinska myndigheten lever upp till avtalet. Att jaga visselblåsare med specialstyrkor må kosta mycket biståndspengar, men det ses sällan som framsteg för de mänskliga rättigheterna.” Source: Developed by the author based on articles from Dagens Nyheter (DN).

Appendix 3

Summary of Key Quotes Attached to Key Indicators in Each Article in Göteborgs- Posten (GP)

Article Author, Title, Publication, Key quotes, statements or sentences in the Number Date text (or synonyms, or key phrases related to the indicators) 1 Martin Telinius, “Våra “Under flera decennier har Sverige via Sida stött skattepengar ska inte hamna i Palestina och den palestinska myndigheten med terroristernas fickor,” omfattande ekonomiska medel. Utöver Göteborgs-Posten, June 04, humanitärt bistånd som M, SD, KD och L inte 2019. vill röra, så har detta bistånd tyvärr inte åstadkommit några större förändringar i den korrupta palestinska myndigheten.” 2 GP, “M vill minska biståndet “Vi vill ställa krav på utveckling mot demokrati till Palestina,” Göteborgs- och mänskliga rättigheter och att man arbetar Posten, Maj 21, 2021. mot korruption, i båda fallen kan man vara dyster i utvecklingen i Palestina, säger Wallmark till radion. Det bistånd Moderaterna vill skära i är långsiktigt utvecklingssamarbetet, inte det humanitära biståndet. Kristdemokraterna, Sverigedemokraterna och Liberalerna tycker samma sak i biståndsfrågan kring Palestina.” 3 GP, “Länder fryser bidrag till “Nederländerna och Schweiz fryser sina bidrag Palestinaflyktingar,” till FN:s hjälporganisation för palestinska Göteborgs-Posten, August flyktingar, UNRWA, efter larm om allvarliga 02, 2019. etiska övertramp. Men Sverige, som är en av de

största givarna, har i dagsläget inga planer på att stoppa utbetalningarna.” 4 Olga Deutsch, “Svenskt “Sedan 2014 har Sverige investerat mer än 400 bistånd bidrar till att sprida miljoner svenska kronor för att lyfta fram antisemitism,” Göteborgs- mänskliga rättigheter. Sveriges engagemang är Posten, July 12, 2018. lovvärt, men trots dessa investeringar deklarerar de två statsråden att i dag är vi längre ifrån freden än någonsin”. En anledning är att svenskt bistånd i slutändan alltför ofta bidrar till att finansiera radikala grupper, grupper som i många fall förespråkar antisemitism, uppviglar till våld och underblåser en diskurs fylld av hat.” 5 Margot Wallström och “Våra stöd till Palestina handlar inte bara om ett Isabella Lövin, “Därför ansvar för en återupptagen fredsprocess, det engagerar vi oss för fred handlar lika mycket om att verka för stabilitet i mellan Israel och Palestina,” regionen och om vår egen säkerhet.” Göteborgs-Posten, June 28, 2018. 6 Anna Karolina Eriksson, “Efter återkommande krig i Gaza lever fyra av “Guide: Här är länderna som fem Gazabor på humanitärt stöd från får mest bistånd,” Göteborgs- omvärlden. Det privata näringslivet har i princip Posten, October 24, 2017. ingen möjlighet att exportera och arbetslösheten är stor. Den palestinska myndigheten har svag ekonomi och stort biståndsberoende, och har dessutom begränsat inflytande över Gaza som i princip styrs av Hamas. Svenskt bistånd har här som mål att utveckla demokrati med religionsfrihet, respekt för mänskliga rättigheter och jämställdhet.” 7 Ulrika Modéer, “Vi har bra “Sveriges bistånd till Palestina har ett koll på biståndet,” överordnat syfte. Det är att bidra till ett Göteborgs-Posten, demokratiskt, självständigt, sammanhängande September 08, 2017. och livskraftigt Palestina, som existerar sida vid sida med Israel i fred och säkerhet.” 8 Lars Adaktusson, “Stoppa “För tilltron till Sveriges bistånds- och stödet till palestinska utrikespolitik är det nödvändigt att den svenska terrorister,” Göteborgs- regeringen fryser biståndet till palestinska Posten, September 04, 2017. områden tills dess att den del av biståndet som bevisligen går till terrorstöd upphör.” 9 Ulf Öfverberg, “Sveriges “Vi kan tycka olika om den israeliska stöd till terrorn,” Göteborgs- regeringens politik men det kan inte anses vara Posten, April 24, 2017. en politik för fred att ge bistånd till en regim som inte bara är patriarkal, nepotistisk och korrumperad utan också med omfattande ekonomiska utbetalningar stödjer terrorism mot civila israeler. Kanske kan terrordåden mot våra egna medborgare ge nytt perspektiv på det svenska biståndet till en regim som stödjer terror.”

10 GP, “Wallström: We take the “Under regeringssammanträdet i dag fattades lead in the EU,” Göteborgs- även beslut om att höja biståndet till stöd för det Posten, October 30, 2014. palestinska statsbyggandet. Under en femårsperiod ska biståndet öka från dagens 500 miljoner kronor till 1,5 miljarder kronor, utöver det humanitära bidrag som också finns. Enligt biståndsminister Isabella Lövin (MP) ska biståndet underlätta för palestinier att försörja sig och kunna bo kvar, stärka kvinnors inflytande och öka motståndskraften mot miljö- och klimatförändringar.” 11 Julia Kronlid, “Fel att “Vårt förtroende för Fatah, PLO och Palestinska erkänna Palestina i dag,” myndigheten är också lågt. De har inte visat Göteborgs-Posten, October bättring, utan avlönar terrorister och bidrar till 10, 2014. att sprida antisemitisk propaganda. En grundförutsättning för svenskt bistånd och ett erkännande bör vara att PLO och Palestinska myndigheten visar tydliga prov på bättring.” 12 GP, “Bistånd till palestinier “Biståndsminister Gunilla Carlsson (M) hotar kan dras in,” Göteborgs- att ta bort det svenska biståndet för Posten, June 14, 2013. samhällsuppbyggnad för de palestinska områdena Gaza och Västbanken. Det skulle minska biståndet med 200 miljoner kronor, från dagens 700 miljoner. Orsaken är att varken Israel eller palestinierna vill delta i fredsförhandlingar om en tvåstatslösning.” 13 Arne Lapidus, “Nytt styre “De palestinska affärsmännen hoppas nu att skapar hopp i Palestina,” deras nya regering, som enligt planerna tillträder Göteborgs-Posten, March 16, i Gaza i dag, ska kunna få ordning på ekonomin. 2007. De hoppas att det ekonomiska biståndet ska börja flöda igen och att Israel ska lätta på sina restriktioner. Men vägen dit är lång. Det kräver att de internationella biståndsgivarna med USA och EU i spetsen samt Israel häver bojkotten av den palestinska regeringen. Israel har redan förklarat man inte tänker göra det, eftersom också den nya regeringen domineras av Hamas och fortsätter Hamas politik. Från USA och EU kommer oklara signaler.” 14 Birgitta Ohlsson, “Svenska “Folkpartiet går längst i sina kommentarer och politiker: Lägg ner vapnen, kräver att Sverige genast fryser sitt bistånd till Hamas,” Göteborgs-Posten, Palestinska myndigheten. Om vi fortsätter med January 26, 2006. stödet så innebär det att vi legitimerar terrorism och Israelhat, säger Birgitta Ohlsson, som sitter i Sidas styrelse och är folkpartiets biståndstalesman. Ger vi bistånd till Hamas så bygger vi upp ett Hamasistan, ett talibanliknande samhälle, tillägger hon.” 15 Fredrik Malm, “Debatt 3/7 “Det pågår i dag en maktkamp mellan LUF: Stöd de demokratiska korrumperade, trötta diktaturer och religiösa

krafterna i arabvärlden,” extremister som vill omforma samhället efter Göteborgs-Posten, July 03, iranskt mönster med sharialagstiftning och 2005. klädregler för kvinnor. Förlorarna är det stora folkflertalet, alla dem som varken vill ha sekulär eller religiös diktatur - utan demokrati enligt liberala principer. Sveriges bistånd till Mellanöstern är begränsat. De senaste tio åren har vårt bistånd främst handlat om ekonomiskt stöd till palestinska myndigheter. Något stöd till att starta fria medier, försöka driva fria universitet, stöd till kvinnogrupper som kräver mänskliga rättigheter eller liknande demokratifrämjande bistånd har inte funnits. Och i den mån det har existerat har det handlat om begränsade projekt och inte några bredare större satsningar.” Source: Developed by the author based on articles from Göteborgs-Posten (GP).

Appendix 4

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