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Kitui County EWS Bulletin

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Kitui County EWS Bulletin National Drought Management Authority KITUI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR APRIL 2021 Early Warning Phase Classification APRIL EW PHASE LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW TRENDS PHASE Marginal Mixed Farming Alert Worsening Mixed Farming Normal Worsening County Alert Worsening Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges ▪ The county experienced depressed rainfall with Rainfall (% of normal) 51-75 80-120 late onset in the first dekad of April. VCI-3 month 34.29 35-50 ▪ The vegetation greenness was below normal. VCI-3 month forecast June-03 50 35-50 ▪ VCI forecast indicates normal to above normal Forage Condition Good to Good to fair poor vegetation greenness. Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Value Normal ranges Production Indicators Maize Crop Condition Poor Good ▪ Early planted crops had germinated and were Livestock Body Condition Fair to poor Good to fair in poor condition due to moisture stress. Milk Production (in litres) 1.4 ≥ 1.3 ▪ Livestock body condition was fair to poor with Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal normal cases of livestock migration and deaths. Livestock Deaths (from ▪ Confirmed cases of FMD, Trypanomiasis and Drought) No death No death Helmithiasis diseases were reported. Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 133 ≥ 105 ▪ Milk production was within normal range. Milk Consumption (in litres) 1.1 ≥ 0.9 Access Indicators Return Distance to Water 4.0 ≤ 6.1 ▪ Terms of trade were favourable. Sources (in km) ▪ Milk consumption was within normal range. Cost of Water at Source (20 2-5 ≤ 5Ksh ▪ Water distances were within normal range. litres Jerry can) ▪ The cost of water at source was normal. Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges Utilization Indicators Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at 3.1 ≤7.0 ▪ Malnutrition cases were within normal range. risk of malnutrition) ▪ About 76.3 percent of households were in Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) 7.1 ≤ 6.8 acceptable food consumption category. Food Acceptable 76.3 ≥ 80 ▪ About 16.7 percent of households employed Consumption Borderline 23.7 ≤ 20 crisis and emergency food based coping Score (%) Poor 0 0 mechanisms ▪ Short rains harvess ▪ Planting/Weeding ▪ Long rains harvests ▪ Short rains ▪ Short dry spell ▪ Long rains ▪ A long dry spell ▪ Planting/weeding ▪ Reduced milk yields ▪ High Calving Rate ▪ Land preparation ▪ Increased HH Food Stocks ▪ Milk Yields Increase ▪ Increased HH Food ▪ Land preparation Stocks ▪ Kidding (Sept) Long Rains Dry Cool Season Short Rains Season Dry Season Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE ▪ The onset of the long rain was late in the first dekad of April compared to second dekad of March normally. ▪ On average, the county recorded 68.1, and 16.4 milimetres of rainfall for the first, and second dekad of April compared to 49.1 and 27.9 milimetres normally respectively as shown in figure 1. ▪ Based on Kenya Meteorological Department, Kitui County experienced 51-75 percent of normal rainfall in April with pockets of Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone recording 26- Figure 1: Rainfall Distribution for the Year 2021 50 percent of normal rainfall. ▪ The rainfall was characteristed by poor temporal and uneven spatial distribution. 2.0 IMPACTS ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION 2.1.1 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) ▪ The county vegetation greenness declined by 18 percent to stand at a 3 month VCI of 34.29 in April from 41.59 in previous month. This is an indication of moderate vegetation greenness as shown in figure 3. ▪ Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui South and Mwingi Central sub counties had a moderate vegetation greenness at 3 month VCI of 24.82, 24.82, 32.51 and 33.1 respectively while Kitui East and Kitui Rural sub counties recorded normal vegetation greeness at 3 month VCI of 37.42 and 37.76 respectively. ▪ Moreover, Kitui Central and Kitui West sub counties had above normal vegetation greeness at a 3 month VCI of 54.01 and 51.02 respectively. ▪ The county vegetation greenness is below normal compared to long term mean as shown in figure 2. Figure 3: Kitui County 3 Month VCI Matrix Figure 3: Kitui County 3 Month VCI Trend Kitui County April 2021 EWS Bulletin | 1 2.1.2 Vegetation Condition Index Forecast ▪ Based on Sussex Vegetation Outlook for the month of May and June 2021, the 3-month VCI forecast indicates an improvement in vegetation condition. ▪ The county is likely to experience normal to above normal vegetation greenness as shown in figure 4 and this will boost availability and accessibility of livestock feeds. Figure 4: Kitui County 3 Month VCI Forecast 2.1.3 Pasture ▪ Pasture condition ranged from good to poor across the livelihood zones with a declining trend as shown in figure 5. ▪ On average, about 41 percent of pasture was poor in both quality and quantity in April compared to 19 percent in previous month. The remaining 44 and 15 percent of pasture was fair and good respectively. ▪ Pasture was poor mainly in Mwingi North and Mwingi Central sub counties. ▪ The available pasture is expected to last for <1-2 months across the livelihood zones compared to 2-3 months normally. ▪ Pasture condition was better in year 2020 Figure 5: Kitui County Pasture Condition compared to similar period in year 2021. 2.1.4 Browse ▪ Browse condition ranged from good to poor across the livelihood zones with a declining trend as shown in figure 6. ▪ On average, about 19 percent of browse was regarded as good in April compared to 11 percent in previous month in both quality and quantity. The remaining 74 and seven percent of browse was fair and poor respectively. ▪ Browse is expected to last for 2-3 months compared to 3-4 months normally across the livelihood zones. Figure 6: Kitui County Browse Condition ▪ Browse condition was better in year 2020 compared to similar period in year 2021. Kitui County April 2021 EWS Bulletin | 2 2.2 WATER RESOURCE 2.2.1 Sources ▪ The main water sources for both human and livestock consumption in April were pans & dams, boreholes, traditional river wells and piped water system as shown in figure 7. ▪ This situation is normal at this time of the year. ▪ Most of water facilities had a recharge level of less than 30 percent of their capacity. ▪ Water levels at open water facilities are likely to last for <1-2 months across the livelihood zones compared to 3-4 months normally. This is mainly due to high levels of siltation and poor recharge from on-going long rains. Figure 7: Major Water Sources for Kitui County 2.2.2 Household Access and Utilization ▪ The average return distances from the households to water sources reduced by 26 percent to stand at 4.0km in April from 5.4km in previous month. ▪ Households in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone trekked an average of 4.6km compared to 3.4km in Mixed Farming livelihood zone. ▪ The current water distance is 35 percent lower than the long-term mean as shown in figure 8. ▪ Water consumption per person per day remained stable at 17 litres in April as it was in previous month. ▪ The proportion of households treating water before consuming stood at 19.7 percent in April compared to 21.4 Figure 8: Household Access to Water percent in previous month. Water treatment chemicals and boiling were the most preferred treatment methods at 17.8 and 1.9 percent respectively. ▪ The proportion of households buying water stood at 37 percent in April compared to 45 percent in previous month. ▪ The price of water per 20-litre Jerry can at source was normal at 2-5 shillings. In some areas, the price of water was one shilling. However, water retailed at 15-20 shillings from vendors. Kitui County April 2021 EWS Bulletin | 3 2.2.3 Livestock Access ▪ The average return distances from livestock grazing areas to watering points decreased by 20 percent to stand at 4.1km in April from 5.1km in previous month. This was attributed to partially recharge of nearby water resources. ▪ Livestock in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones trekked a distance of 3.7km compared to 4.5km in Mixed Farming livelihood zone. ▪ Livestock watering frequency was daily in Mixed Farming and 3-4 days per week in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones compared to daily normally. Figure 9: Average Grazing Distances ▪ The current average distance from livestock grazing areas to watering points is 37 percent lower than the long-term mean as shown in figure 9. 2.3 Implication of the Above Indicators to Food Security ▪ Following April rains, we expect a slight improvement in forage and water condition. This will boost livestock productivity and household purchasing power. 3.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.1 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 3.1.1 Livestock Body Condition ▪ Livestock body condition ranged from fair to poor for cattle and good to fair for small species across the livelihood zones with a worsening trend. This was due to reduced forage availability. ▪ On average, only seven percent of cattle had good smooth appearance body condition in April compared to 33 percent in previous month. The remaining 85 and seven percent of the livestock had moderate (neither fat nor thin) and borderline (fore ribs not visible, 12th and 13th ribs visible) body condition respectively as shown in Figure 10: Cattle Body Condition figure 10. ▪ Livestock body condition was better in year 2020 compared to similar period in year 2021. 3.1.2 Livestock Diseases ▪ Confirmed cases of Foot and Mouth disease (4), Trypanomiasis (26) and Helmithiasis (46) in cattle were reported in Mutha, Athi, Kanziku, Ikutha, Kyuso and Kanyangi wards, with about five deaths due to Trypanomiasis reported.
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