This publication includes analysis of the National Pupil Database (NPD): https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-pupil-database The Department for Education is responsible for the collation and management of the NPD and is the Data Controller of NPD data. Any inferences or conclusions derived from the NPD in this publication are the responsibility of the Education Policy Institute and not the Department for Education. ISBN: 978-1-909274-54-9 Published June 2018 Education Policy Institute. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. For more information, visit: creativecommons.org 2 About the author Jon Andrews is Director for School System and Performance and Deputy Head of Research at the Education Policy Institute. As well as publishing a number of reports on the expansion of the academies programme he has co-authored reports on free schools, grammar and faith schools, school funding, the disadvantage gap, and world class standards. Prior to joining EPI, Jon worked in the Department for Education from 2003 to 2016, most recently heading the Department’s Revenue Funding Analysis Unit. About the Education Policy Institute The Education Policy Institute is an independent, impartial, and evidence-based research institute that promotes high quality education outcomes, regardless of social background. We achieve this through data-led analysis, innovative research and high-profile events. Education can have a transformative effect on the life chances of young people, enabling them to fulfil their potential, have successful careers, and grasp opportunities. As well as having a positive impact on the individual, good quality education and child wellbeing also promotes economic productivity and a cohesive society. Through our research, we provide insight, commentary, and a constructive critique of education policy in England – shedding light on what is working and where further progress needs to be made. Our research and analysis spans a young person's journey from the early years through to entry to the labour market. Our core research areas include: ▪ Benchmarking English Education ▪ School Performance, Admissions, and Capacity ▪ Early Years Development ▪ Vulnerable Learners and Social Mobility ▪ Accountability, Assessment, and Inspection ▪ Curriculum and Qualifications ▪ Teacher Supply and Quality ▪ Education Funding ▪ Higher Education, Further Education, and Skills Our experienced and dedicated team works closely with academics, think tanks, and other research foundations and charities to shape the policy agenda. 3 4 Contents About the author .................................................................................................................................... 3 About the Education Policy Institute ...................................................................................................... 3 Foreword ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 8 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 9 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 11 Part 1: The policy context ..................................................................................................................... 13 The Labour governments of 1997-2010 ........................................................................................... 13 The Coalition Government of 2010-2015 ......................................................................................... 13 David Cameron’s Conservative government 2015-16 ...................................................................... 13 Theresa May’s Conservative governments, 2016 onwards .............................................................. 14 The number of academies, academy trusts and their structure ...................................................... 15 Existing evidence on academy performance .................................................................................... 16 Part 2: Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 17 Previous approaches to measuring academy chain and local authority performance .................... 17 Mainstream schools .......................................................................................................................... 17 Special schools .................................................................................................................................. 27 Stability of cohorts ............................................................................................................................ 30 Part 3: Results ....................................................................................................................................... 31 Mainstream primary schools (Key Stage 2) ...................................................................................... 31 Secondary schools (Key Stage 4) ....................................................................................................... 37 Comparisons across key stages ......................................................................................................... 42 Stability of cohorts ............................................................................................................................ 43 Performance of disadvantaged pupils .............................................................................................. 47 Provision for those with special educational needs and disabilities ................................................ 49 Part 4: Policy implications ..................................................................................................................... 51 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 53 Annex 1: Complete tables at Key Stage 2 ............................................................................................. 55 Annex 2: Complete tables at Key Stage 4 ............................................................................................. 66 Annex 3: Pupils with special educational needs and disabilities – Key Stage 2 .................................... 77 Annex 4: Pupils with special educational needs and disabilities – Key Stage 4 .................................... 82 5 Foreword The Education Policy Institute is an independent, impartial and evidence based research institute which aims to promote high quality education outcomes for all, through analysis that both informs and influences the policy debate in England and internationally. Over the last 20 years, one of the biggest changes in English education has been the growth of the academies programme. By the end of 2016/17 academic year, over two thirds of state-funded secondary schools and over a quarter of state-funded primary schools had academy status. A rigorous evaluation of the performance of the overall academies programme, and of individual academy operators, has generally lagged behind the growth of the programme. But over the last two years the Education Policy Institute has published analysis by its own researchers, and in partnership with the London School of Economics, which allows a much better understanding of the impact of the academies programme on pupil attainment – both at a system level and for each (larger) academy chain. The system level research is clear that the early sponsor academies programme under the 1997- 2010 Labour government was successful in raising attainment compared with a similar “control” group of schools. But the rapid expansion of the academies programme since 2010 seems to have had little material impact on overall attainment, measured against a control group of schools. This publication – “School Performance in Academy Chains and Local Authorities 2017” – does not explicitly seek to return to the comparative analysis of local authority schools and academy chains at a system level. Instead it seeks to fairly assess the performance of different groups of schools, in academy chains and in local authorities – building upon a similar EPI analysis carried out in 2016, but using an improved methodology. The EPI research looks at both the current performance and rate of improvement of groups of schools, in order to establish the relative impact of different chains and local authorities. To ensure that comparisons between groups of schools are fair, EPI researchers have used a contextual measure of performance, which seeks to adjust for the different progress and outcomes of pupils with different characteristics. This ensures that what is measured is the impact of school quality, rather than the characteristics of school admissions. As in 2016, this report shows the extent of variability of performance by academy chain and local authority. Academy chains and local authorities appear both at the top and the bottom of the performance tables. For students, it is more important to be in a high performing schools group, whether