EQUITY STRATEGY Quálitas and Vesta Are Candidates to Join Mexbol @Analisis Fundam
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Equity Research Me xico February 17, 2020 EQUITY STRATEGY www.banorte.com Quálitas and Vesta are candidates to join Mexbol @analisis_fundam ▪ On Friday, March 6th, the MSE and S&P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the sample that will integrate the S&P BMV Marissa Garza th Director of Equity Strategy IPC as of Monday, March 23 [email protected] ▪ Quálitas (Q) is set to enter the index instead of Alpek, as it does not Valentín Mendoza comply with the market cap criteria. On the contrary, Q would meet Senior Strategist, Equity [email protected] all the selection requirements ▪ According to our estimates, after implementing the combined José Espitia Senior Strategist, Equity ranking criterion, Vesta would position itself better than GCC, hence [email protected] it would have to be replaced in the benchmark Leavers & Quálitas and Vesta could replace Alpek and GCC. Upon performing an Joiners Stock Weighting exercise with data as of January 31st (reference date), we estimate that Leave ALPEK A 0.21% Leave GCC * 0.58% ALPEK would not meet the required minimum VWAP float-adjusted market Join Q * 0.62%e cap (≥$ 8 billion) in order to remain in the Mexbol sample, although it would Join VESTA * 0.66%e be dependent on the float determined by S&P whether it leaves the index or This document is provided for the reader’s convenience only. The translation from the original Spanish version was not. (limit to stay ≥18.39% vs 17.99%e). Instead, Q would join the index as it made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may possibly arise between the original document in Spanish and its English complies with all the selection criteria. Additionally, it is important to mention translation. For this reason, the original research paper in that while BOLSA, GCARSO and GCC would not meet the liquidity Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version was released before the English translation. The original requirement, after implementing the combined ranking criterion, seeking to document entitled “Entorno Bursátil: Quálitas y Vesta candidatas a integrarse al IPC” was released on February maintain 35 stocks in the sample, VESTA would be better positioned in 17, 2020. Document for distribution among public respect to GCC, thus it would have to be replaced (see tables attached). In that sense, we anticipate that the stocks that would maintain the highest weighting within the benchmark, with no relevant changes, would be AMX (14.2%e), FEMSA (12.0%e), WALMEX (10.8%e), GFNORTE (10.4%e) and GMEXICO (6.2%e). Finally, it is worth mentioning that the computations made in this exercise could vary given that S&P carries out float reckons based on the stock movements, without letting them know publicly. Mexbol – Performance LTM Mexbol – Current constituents weightings Volume in millions of shares % 800 51,000 700 AMX L 49,000 600 FEMSA UBD 14.2% WALMEX * 47,000 500 29.4% GFNORTE O 400 45,000 12.0% GMEXICO B 300 CEMEX CPO 43,000 2.7% 10.8% 200 TLEVISA CPO 41,000 GAP B 100 3.0% 10.5% 3.3% 6.2% ELEKTRA * 39,000 0 F-19 A-19 J-19 A-19 O-19 D-19 F-20 3.8% ASUR B 4.0% Source: Bloomberg, BMV Source: Banorte 1 Current constituents’ analysis based on the criteria to remain in the sample VWAP Float- Investable Annualized Median Weighting in VWAP Shares Floating Adjusted Market Trading Days ≥ Ticker Weighting Traded Value Ratio≥ Median Daily Traded Mexbol L3M Outstanding Shares* Capitalization*≥ 95% Factor≥10% 15% Value* ≥ $30 million $8 billion 3M 6M 3M 6M AMX L 14.17% $ 15.21 44,872 52% 23,333 $ 354,906 100% 33% 37% 481 492 FEMSA UBD 12.01% $ 177.32 2,161 86% 1,859 $ 329,573 100% 30% 35% 387 478 WALMEX * 10.84% $ 55.56 17,461 29% 5,064 $ 281,322 100% 65% 67% 730 770 GFNORTE O 10.51% $ 108.79 2,883 85% 2,451 $ 266,643 100% 49% 57% 535 601 GMEXICO B 6.16% $ 53.31 7,785 41% 3,192 $ 170,142 100% 45% 47% 291 291 CEMEX CPO 3.98% $ 7.31 14,851 100% 14,851 $ 108,511 100% 43% 51% 194 226 TLEVISA CPO 3.84% $ 43.77 2,882 88% 2,537 $ 111,022 100% 16% 21% 74 83 GAP B 3.35% $ 222.91 477 79% 377 $ 83,971 100% 55% 52% 174 158 ELEKTRA * 2.99% $ 1,389.32 233 25% 58 $ 81,060 100% 15% 18% 46 55 ASUR B 2.74% $ 349.74 277 73% 202 $ 70,734 100% 34% 37% 98 99 KOF UBL 2.31% $ 113.42 525 100% 525 $ 59,571 100% 29% 33% 64 77 KIMBER A 2.05% $ 38.85 1,604 88% 1,412 $ 54,859 100% 59% 67% 136 150 OMA B 1.90% $ 138.99 344 100% 344 $ 47,814 100% 38% 49% 72 81 BIMBO A 1.80% $ 34.67 4,646 32% 1,487 $ 51,536 100% 28% 36% 55 69 AC * 1.78% $ 104.54 1,764 25% 441 $ 46,109 100% 47% 60% 90 106 GFINBUR O 1.86% $ 23.73 6,623 33% 2,185 $ 51,851 100% 20% 23% 39 47 ORBIA * 1.65% $ 44.32 2,100 48% 1,008 $ 44,670 100% 48% 75% 86 119 IENOVA * 1.70% $ 85.41 1,534 34% 522 $ 44,547 100% 63% 72% 113 115 GRUMA B 1.66% $ 199.33 416 54% 224 $ 44,745 100% 50% 63% 88 102 PINFRA * 1.65% $ 195.35 380 58% 220 $ 43,069 100% 46% 51% 73 76 ALFA A 1.33% $ 15.76 5,031 57% 2,868 $ 45,189 100% 43% 47% 76 85 GCARSO A1 1.12% $ 70.05 2,280 20% 456 $ 31,948 100% 16% 18% 19 21 PE&OLES 0.87% $ 210.50 397 31% 123 $ 25,937 100% 46% 60% 48 63 ALSEA * 0.80% $ 50.59 830 61% 506 $ 25,609 100% 65% 71% 69 70 BBAJIO O 0.80% $ 31.38 1,190 60% 714 $ 22,406 100% 46% 49% 34 42 GENTERA * 0.81% $ 19.80 1,625 63% 1,023 $ 20,268 100% 44% 44% 37 32 MEGA CPO 0.80% $ 75.20 861 35% 301 $ 22,652 100% 70% 66% 60 60 BOLSA A 0.73% $ 42.48 593 75% 445 $ 18,894 100% 37% 43% 27 29 LIVEPOL C 0.69% $ 98.40 197 100% 197 $ 19,430 100% 43% 47% 35 37 CUERVO * 0.66% $ 33.96 3,654 14% 512 $ 17,371 100% 47% 67% 34 40 BSMX B 0.60% $ 25.78 3,323 17% 565 $ 14,562 100% 64% 104% 39 55 LAB B 0.59% $ 19.23 1,048 71% 744 $ 14,310 100% 58% 59% 34 33 GCC * 0.58% $ 101.75 337 48% 162 $ 16,479 100% 46% 40% 32 26 R A 0.46% $ 106.24 328 33% 108 $ 11,497 100% 123% 137% 57 58 ALPEK A 0.21% $ 20.56 2,116 18% 381 $ 7,832 100% 103% 90% 31 29 Source: MSE, Bloomberg, Banorte * in millions Potential joiners’ analysis based on the selection universe and liquidity criteria VWAP Float- Investable Annualized Median VWAP Shares Floating Adjusted Market Trading Ticker Weighting Traded Value Ratio≥ Median Daily Traded L3M Outstanding Shares* Capitalization*≥ Days ≥ 95% Factor≥10% 25% Value* ≥ $50 million $10 billion 3M 6M 3M 6M VOLAR A $ 21.19 924 98% 905 $ 19,185 100% 15% 18% 12 13 VESTA * $ 33.36 606 86% 522 $ 17,399 100% 33% 42% 24 27 SITES B1 $ 13.72 3,300 36% 1,188 $ 16,297 100% 11% 15% 6 9 GMXT * $ 26.34 4,101 15% 615 $ 16,198 100% 14% 11% 9 5 Q * $ 81.18 435 40% 174 $ 14,126 100% 80% 103% 46 56 BACHOCO B $ 80.03 600 27% 162 $ 12,966 100% 37% 32% 20 16 LACOMER UBC $ 24.27 459 99% 455 $ 11,034 100% 18% 20% 8 9 Source: MSE, Bloomberg, Banorte * in millions 2 Combined ranking criteria analysis to determine at least 35 constituents for Mexbol VWAP Float- VWAP Float- Investable Annualized Median VWAP Shares Floating Adjusted Market Trading adjusted Market Ticker Weighting Traded Value Ratio≥ Median Daily Traded Value* ≥ L3M Outstanding Shares* Capitalization*≥ Days ≥ 95% Capitalization Factor≥10% 25% $50 million $10 billion 3M 6M 3M 6M Ranking (1) GCARSO A1 $ 70.05 2,280 20% 456 $ 31,948 100% 16% 18% 19 21 1 VOLAR A $ 21.19 924 98% 905 $ 19,185 100% 15% 18% 12 13 2 BOLSA A $ 42.48 593 75% 445 $ 18,894 100% 37% 43% 27 29 3 VESTA * $ 33.36 606 86% 522 $ 17,399 100% 33% 42% 24 27 4 GCC * $ 101.75 337 48% 162 $ 16,479 100% 46% 40% 32 26 5 SITES B1 $ 13.72 3,300 36% 1,188 $ 16,297 100% 11% 15% 6 9 6 GMXT * $ 26.34 4,101 15% 615 $ 16,198 100% 14% 11% 9 5 7 BACHOCO B $ 80.03 600 27% 162 $ 12,966 100% 37% 32% 20 16 8 LACOMER UBC$ 24.27 459 99% 455 $ 11,034 100% 18% 20% 8 9 9 VWAP Float- Investable Annualized Median Six-month Median VWAP Shares Floating Adjusted Market Trading Ticker Weighting Traded Value Ratio≥ Median Daily Traded Value* ≥ Daily Traded Value L3M Outstanding Shares* Capitalization*≥ Days ≥ 95% Factor≥10% 25% $50 million Ranking (2) $10 billion 3M 6M 3M 6M BOLSA A $ 42.48 593 75% 445 $ 18,894 100% 37% 43% 27 29 1 VESTA * $ 33.36 606 86% 522 $ 17,399 100% 33% 42% 24 27 2 GCC * $ 101.75 337 48% 162 $ 16,479 100% 46% 40% 32 26 3 GCARSO A1 $ 70.05 2,280 20% 456 $ 31,948 100% 16% 18% 19 21 4 BACHOCO B $ 80.03 600 27% 162 $ 12,966 100% 37% 32% 20 16 5 VOLAR A $ 21.19 924 98% 905 $ 19,185 100% 15% 18% 12 13 6 SITES B1 $ 13.72 3,300 36% 1,188 $ 16,297 100% 11% 15% 6 9 7 LACOMER UBC$ 24.27 459 99% 455 $ 11,034 100% 18% 20% 8 9 8 GMXT * $ 26.34 4,101 15% 615 $ 16,198 100% 14% 11% 9 5 9 VWAP Float- Investable Annualized Median VWAP Shares Floating Adjusted Market Trading Combined Ticker Weighting Traded Value Ratio≥ Median Daily Traded Value* ≥ L3M Outstanding Shares* Capitalization*≥ Days ≥ 95% Ranking (1+2) Factor≥10% 25% $50 million $10 billion 3M 6M 3M 6M BOLSA A $ 42.48 593 75% 445 $ 18,894 100% 37% 43% 27 29 4 GCARSO A1 $ 70.05 2,280 20% 456 $ 31,948 100% 16% 18% 19 21 5 VESTA * $ 33.36 606 86% 522 $ 17,399 100% 33% 42% 24 27 6 GCC * $ 101.75 337 48% 162 $ 16,479 100% 46% 40% 32 26 8 VOLAR A $ 21.19 924 98% 905 $ 19,185 100% 15% 18% 12 13 8 SITES B1 $ 13.72 3,300 36% 1,188 $ 16,297 100% 11% 15% 6 9 13 BACHOCO B $ 80.03 600 27% 162 $ 12,966 100% 37% 32% 20 16 13 GMXT * $ 26.34 4,101 15% 615 $ 16,198 100% 14% 11% 9 5 16 LACOMER UBC$ 24.27 459 99% 455 $ 11,034 100% 18% 20% 8 9 17 Source: MSE, Bloomberg, Banorte * in millions 3 Estimated index constituents’ weightings after resampling and rebalancing Weighting Weighting Change in Ticker Change in Mexbol in Mexbol Weighting (current) (estimate) (estimate) AMX L 14.2% 14.1% -0.1% FEMSA UBD 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% WALMEX * 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% GFNORTE O 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% GMEXICO B 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% CEMEX CPO 4.0% 3.9% -0.1% TLEVISA