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Presentation Patrice MENARD October 2008

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Presentation Patrice MENARD October 2008 BNP Paribas Patrice MENARD Investor Relations Officer Switzerland / Netherlands October 2008 1 Record earnings despite the crisis Corporate governance 2 A European Leader with a Worldwide Footprint Europe (excl. France/Italy) 46,000 employees Italy United States 20,000 employees 15,000 employees Asia 9,800 employees Rest of the world 15,200 employees France incl. overseas depts./territories 64,000 employees Present in over 85 countries 170,000 employees* worldwide of which 130,000 in Europe (76% of the total) *Persons employed 3 A European Leader with a Global Franchise Breakdown of 1H08 revenues by core business Corporate & Others Retail Investment Banking 15% Banking in France 22% 20% North America 11% BNL bc France 9% 47% Other Asset Western Management International Europe & Services Retail 13% Italy 19% 14% Services 30% WesternWestern Europe Europe RetailRetail banking banking 74%74% 59%59% 4 Good Revenue Momentum Revenues -24.5% +8.0% +3.0% +2.9% 2,452 2,108 2,153 1,993 1,520 1,852 2Q08 1,357 1,396 1,470 1,514 +6.5% 1,263 1,311 1Q08 2Q07 643 680 685 % 2Q08/2Q07 In €m RBF BNL bc IRS AMS CIB Retail Banking eur 6 25% F 2/3 25% F 2/3 25% F 2/3 BNL BNL BNL bc bc bc AMS AMS AMS 19% IRS 19% IRS 19% IRS 57% 18% 25% 5 Effective Cost Control Maintains Operating Efficiency Operating Expenses Cost/income ratio 11.4% 67.5% 10.3% 7.0% 64.0% 4.9% 62.2% 62.7% 0.7% 59.7% 0% 58.9% Change Q/Q-4 -2.8% 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 FlexibleFlexible cost cost structure structure in in the the business business lines lines mostmost severely severely affected affected by by the the crisis crisis 6 Limited Cost of Risk Thanks to a Rigorous Risk Management Policy RBF Personal Finance 39 191 32 151 156 151 26 25 133 134 138 139 18 17 15 14 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H07 1H08 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H07 1H08 BancWest BNL bc CIB 55 57 62 62 14 67 65 7 2 67 55 55 38 30 10 31 -9 16 15 24 -17 -15 2006 2007 1H071H08 2002 2004 2006 1H07 1H08 2002 2004 2006 1H07 1H08 2003 2005 2007 2003 2005 2007 Cost of risk Net provisions / Basel I average risk weighted assets (in bp) 77 Limited Exposure to the More “Toxic” Assets SIVs : liquidity lines = €0.1bn No entity sponsored by BNP Paribas ABCP conduits of which drawn: €0.0bn Liquidity lines = €15.2 bn US Mortgage-Backed Securities - Subprime securities and CDOs, Alt Net exposure = €0.4bn A and CMBS Monoline insurers Net exposure to counterparty risk = €1.15bn LBO portfolio European final portion for 78%, with 96% composed of senior debt Final take = €6.3bn Portfolio for underwriting consisting of 15 Underwriting = €1.7bn transactions, of which more than 90% in Europe Exposure at 30 June 2008, according to Financial Stability Forum recommendations 8 All the Core Businesses Contributed to Earnings A Robust Business Model to Face the Crisis -57.0% Pre-tax income 1 217 -24.1% -4.1% +7.0% 634 659 2Q08 559 536 +13.3% 481 523 1Q08 431 481 461 430 318 2Q07 187 165 177 % 2Q08/2Q07 In €m RBF BNL bc IRS AMS CIB 52% 24% 24% SolidSolid franchises franchises inin which which the the Group Group has has strengthened strengthened its its competitive competitive position position 99 Corporate and Investment Banking A Robust Model Since the Crisis Began 12 M CIB Pre-tax Income in €bn, excluding over debt gains 7.9 1.9 Morgan Stanley Morgan Merril Lynch JP Morgan Royal Bank of Scotland of Bank Royal Citigroup UBS Crédit Agricole Crédit Crédit Suisse Crédit Lehman Brothers Lehman Bank of America of Bank Barclays Société Générale Société Deutsche Bank Deutsche -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -2.7 -2.7 -3.7 -4.3 -5.7 -5.9 -6.3 -25.2 -25.5 BNP Paribas BNP -27.8 From July 2007 to June 2008 Goldman Sachs Goldman From June 2007 to May 2008 AnAn enhanced enhanced competitive competitive position position for for BNPBNP Paribas’ Paribas’ CIB CIB activity activity 10 BNP Paribas’ Strong Relative Performance in 2007… Net income (group share) in 2007 / 2006 29% BBVA 21% HSBC 19% Santander 7% BNP Paribas 7% Deutsche Bank 0% Unicredito -3% Barclays -13% Average -17% Crédit Agricole -30% Bank of America -82% Société Générale -83% Citigroup BNPBNP Paribas Paribas ranked ranked among among the the best best with with 7% 7% growth growth in in net net income income (group(group share) share) in in 2007 2007 11 …and in the Beginning of 2008, Against the Backdrop of a Severe Crisis Net income, group share - 1H08/1H07 12% BBVA 6% Santander -27% BNP Paribas -30% Unicredito -37% Average -41% Intesa San Paolo -45% Société Générale -76% Crédit Agricole -87% Deutsche Bank BNPBNP Paribas Paribas among among the the top top performers performers in in the the Euro Euro Zo Zonene 12 Share Prices Slump Across the Board: BNP Paribas Less Severely Affected Than its Peers BNP Paribas outperformed the DJ Eurostoxx Banks in 2007 and 2008 Share price performance In 2007 Since the beginning of 2008 (*) Santander 2% HSBC -6% Intesa SanPaolo -7% BNP Paribas -21% HSBC -10% Santander -44% BBVA -11% Intesa SanPaolo -44% BNP Paribas -12% Crédit Agricole -45% Deutsche Bank -13% BBVA -46% Unicredito -17% Société Générale -48% Eurostoxx Banks -18% Eurostoxx Banks -53% Société Générale -25% Barclays -54% Crédit Agricole -28% Deutsche Bank -63% Barclays -32% Unicredito -63% AA prudent prudent risk risk policy policy which which explains explains the the relative relative r re-ratinge-rating of of thethe BNP BNP Paribas Paribas share share by by the the market market (*) % 31/12/07-22/10/08 13 A Track Record of Growth and Value Creation Net earnings per share Dividend per share 8.49 3.35 8.03 3.10 7.02 2.60 5.55 2.00 4.70 4.64 4.31 3.78 1.45 1.13 1.20 1.20 2.58 2.79 0.88 2.16 0.75 1.43 0.53 0.41 0.71 0.42 0.66 0.23 0.24 0.27 en € in € 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Undiluted EPS based on the average number of shares in issue CompoundCompound annual annual growth growth rate rate 1993-2007 1993-2007 NetNet earningsearnings perper shareshare DividendDividend perper shareshare +23.95%+23.95% +21.09%+21.09% 14 A Solid Financial Structure to Finance a Steady Organic Growth 30 June 2008 30 June 2007 Shareholders’ equity – Group share, not re-evaluated (in € bn) 42.4 39.4 Total capital ratio 11.0% 10.2% Tier one ratio 7.6% 7.2% Coverage ratio on doubtful loans & commitments * 87% 93% *Gross doubtful loans, balance sheet and off balance sheet Ratings AA+AA+ NegativeNegative outlookoutlook LastLast update update on on 6 6 October October 2008 2008 Aa1Aa1 StableStable outlookoutlook LastLast update update on on 7 7 October October 2008 2008 AAAA StableStable outlookoutlook LastLast update update on on 7 7 October October 2008 2008 15 An Adequate Capitalisation (1/2) A 7.6% Tier 1 ratio which, given BNP Paribas’ risk profile, ensures the sector’s best credit quality, as confirmed by market practice …… 5-year senior CDS spreads in 2008 Spreads (bp) RBS 300 UBS CREDIT SUISSE 250 CREDIT AGRICOLE SANTANDER 200 SOCIETE GENERALE 150 DEUTSCHE BANK UNICREDITO 100 BNP PARIBAS RABOBANK 50 INTESA SAN PAOLO January Feb. March April May June July August September October One of the lowest CDS spreads UnderUnder no no pressure pressure to to raise raise capital capital 16 An Adequate Capitalisation (2/2) … and by rating agencies Ratings and CDS spreads 5Y CDS Senior Spreads (bp) Positive AAA Stable RABO; 86 Negative WF; 88 Positive AA+ Stable AVERAGE SPREAD EU = Negative BNPP; 53 102 Positive AA Stable HSBC; 62 SAN; 80 BBVA; 78 Negative BOFA; 110 BARC; 109 Positive AA- Stable ISP; 76 CASA; 66 Negative UBS; 123 SG; 81 RBOS; 110 DB; 120 NATIXIS; 244 Positive A+ Stable Negative UNI; 107 CS; 120 0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 22/10/2008 5-Y CDS SENIOR SPREAD 1717 AAA Stable AA+ Negative Positive Stable AA Negative Positive Stable AA- Negative Positive Stable A+ Negative Positive Stable Negative Benchmark of S&P Ratings 30-Jun-07 30-Jul-07 S&P rates BNP Paribas among the 3 best banks in the w S&P rates BNP30-Aug Paribas-07 among the 3 best banks in the w 30-Sep-07 30-Oct-07 30-Nov-07 30-Dec-07 Wells FargoRaboBank NA * 30-Jan-08 29-Feb-08 BNP Paribas 30-Mar-08 HSBC Bank 30-Apr-08 Bank of AmericaSantanderBBVA NA * Barclays Bank Plc * 30-May-08 Intesa Sanpaolo 30-Jun-08 JP MorganRBoS 30-Jul-08 Goldman Sachs Deutsche Bank Société GénéraleUBS 30-Aug-08 CitiGroup * 30-Sep-08 Crédit Suisse 06- oct- 08 Data Source : BNP Paribas Credit Data Application a * Negative Credit Watch orld orld nd Bloomberg 18 BNP Paribas A Major Player in Europe and Worldwide Market capitalisation: 15 top banks worldwide 141 122 112 91 82 80 78 67 59 54 53 44 38 35 In € bn 34 BBVA HSBC Citigroup Santander IntesaSPI JPMorgan Wells Fargo Wells BNPParibas Credit Suisse Credit BankChina of Mitsubishi UFJ Mitsubishi Goldman Sachs Goldman BankAmerica of China Const.Bank China Ind.
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