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Emissions Gap Report 2018 © 2018 United Nations Environment Programme November 2018 Emissions Gap Report 2018 © 2018 United Nations Environment Programme November 2018 ISBN: 978-92-807-3726-4 Job number: DEW/2210/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UN Environment would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication Emissions Gap Report 2018 that uses this publication as a source. November 2018 No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UN Environment. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Director, Communication Division, UN Environment, P. O. Box 30552, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of United Nations Environment Programme concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. For general guidance on matters relating to the use of maps in publications please go to http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/english/htmain.htm Disclaimers Mention of a commercial company or product in this document does not imply endorsement by UN Environment or the authors. The use of information from this document for publicity or advertising is not permitted. Trademark names and symbols are used in an editorial fashion with no intention on infringement of trademark or copyright laws. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UN Environment. We regret any errors or omissions that may have been unwittingly made. © Maps, photos, and illustrations as specified This document may be cited as: UNEP (2018). The Emissions Gap Report 2018. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi A digital copy of this report with supporting appendices is available at http://www.unenvironment.org/emissionsgap Supported by: V Acknowledgements UN Environment would like to thank the members of the Center for Climate Change Strategy and International steering committee, the lead and contributing authors, Cooperation, China), Heleen van Soest (PBL Netherlands reviewers and the secretariat for their contribution to the Environmental Assessment Agency) preparation of this assessment report. Authors and reviewers have contributed to the report Chapter 3 in their individual capacities. Their affiliations are only Lead authors: Gunnar Luderer (Potsdam Institute mentioned for identification purposes. for Climate Impact Research, Germany), Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London, UK; International Institute for Project steering committee Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Navroz K. Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China) Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, India), Thelma Krug (Brazilian National Institute for Space Research), Harry Contributing authors: Daniel Huppmann (International Lehmann (German Environment Agency - UBA), Jian Liu Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) (UN Environment), Simon Maxwell (Independent), Surabi Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation), Bert Metz (European Chapter 4 Climate Foundation), Katia Simeonova (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), Oksana Lead authors: Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute), Tarasova (World Meteorological Organization), Merlyn Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute) van Voore (UN Environment) Chapter 5 Chapter 1 Lead authors: Angel Hsu (Yale-NUS College/Data- Lead authors: Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Driven Yale), Oscar Widerberg (IVM, Vrije Universiteit Christensen (UNEP DTU Partnership) Amsterdam) Contributing authors: Fatemeh Bakhtiari (UNEP DTU Chapter 2 Partnership), Sander Chan (German Development Institute), Katharina Lütkehermöller (NewClimate Lead authors: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute), Institute), Mark Roelfsema (PBL Netherlands Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Environmental Assessment Agency), Amy Weinfurter Assessment Agency), Kelly Levin (World Resources (Data-Driven Yale) Institute), Glen Peters (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway) Chapter 6 Contributing authors: Gabriel Blanco (National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Lead authors: Matthias Kalkuhl (Mercator Research Argentina), Jasmin Cantzler (Climate Analytics), Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute), Alexandre and University of Potsdam), Brigitte Knopf (Mercator Koberle (Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Studies and Research in Engineering, Brazil), Lisa Luna Change), Kurt Van Dender (Organisation for Economic (NewClimate Institute), Ritu Mathur (The Energy and Co-operation and Development) Resources Institute, India), Marilena Muntean (Joint Contributing authors: Harro van Asselt (University of Research Centre, European Commission) Jos Olivier Eastern Finland), David Klenert (Joint Research Centre, (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), European Commission), Ruben Lubowski (Environmental Jorge Villarreal Padilla (Iniciativa Climática de México), Defense Fund), Tobias S. Schmidt (ETH Zurich), Bjarne David Rich (World Resources Institute), Fu Sha (National Steffen (ETH Zurich) VI EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VII Chapter 7 Chief scientific editors Contents Lead authors: Mariana Mazzucato (UCL Institute for Anne Olhoff (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Christensen Innovation and Public Purpose), Gregor Semieniuk (SOAS (UNEP DTU Partnership) University of London) Contributing authors: Kelly Sims Gallagher (Tufts Editorial team University), Anna Geddes (ETH Zurich), Ping Huang Lars Christiansen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Olivier (Tufts University), Friedemann Polzin (Utrecht University), Bois von Kursk (UNEP DTU Partnership), James Arthur Clare Shakya (International Institute for Environment and Haselip (UNEP DTU Partnership) Development), Bjarne Steffen (ETH Zurich), Hermann Tribukait (Mexico Energy Innovation Funds) Project coordination Lars Christiansen (UNEP DTU Partnership), Olivier Reviewers Bois von Kursk (UNEP DTU Partnership), Anne Olhoff Juan Carlos Altamirano (World Resources Institute), (UNEP DTU Partnership), John Christensen (UNEP DTU Juan Carlos Arredondo, (Latin America Regional Partnership), Philip Drost (UN Environment), Edoardo Climate Initiative), Céline Bak (Centre for International Zandri (UN Environment) Governance Innovation), Maria Belenky (Climate Advisers), Pieter Boot (PBL, Netherlands Environmental External global and national modelling data Assessment Agency), Sylvain Cail (Enerdata), Jasmin Cantzler (Climate Analytics), Maria Carvalho (London contributors Acknowledgements . V School of Economics), Alex Clark (Climate Policy Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Kimon Initiative), Heleen de Coninck (Radboud University Keramidas and Giacomo Grassi) Princeton University Contents . VII Nijmegen), Jacqueline Cottrell (Green Budget Europe), (Hélène Benveniste) Steffen Dockweiler (Danish Energy Agency), Philip Drost Glossary . IX (UN Environment), Donovan Escalante (Climate Policy Scenario database hosting and support Initiative), James Foster (UK Department for Business, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy & Industrial Strategy), Junichi Fujino (National Acronyms . XII Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan), Ajay Gambhir (Daniel Huppmann and Peter Kolp), and the Integrated (Imperial College London), Arunabha Ghosh (Council Assessment Modelling Consortium on Energy, Environment and Water), Olivia Gippner Foreword . XIII (European Commission DG CLIMA), Jenny Gleed (CDP), Media and launch support Vaibhav Gupta (Council on Energy, Environment and Keith Weller (UN Environment), Shari Nijman (UN Executive summary . XIV Water), Thomas Hale (Oxford University), Stephen Hall Environment), Philip Drost (UN Environment), Roxanna (University of Leeds), Stephane Hallegatte (World Bank), Samii (UN Environment), David Cole (UN Environment), Yasuko Kameyama (National Institute for Environmental Mette Annelie Rasmussen (UNEP DTU Partnership) Chapter 1. Introduction . 1 Studies, Japan), Gerd Leipold (Humboldt-Viadrina Governance Platform), Karan Mangotra (The Energy and Resources Institute), Molly McGregor (World Resources Design, layout and printing Chapter 2. Trends and progress towards the Cancun pledges, NDC targets and peaking of emissions . 3 Institute), Laura Merrill (International Institute for Caren Weeks (independent consultant), Joseph und 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................ 3 Sustainable Development), Rachel Chi Kiu Mok (World Sebastian (cover), Phillip Amunga (UN Environment), 2.2 Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions ......................................................... 3 Bank), Milimer Morgado (The Climate Group), Helen Kailow A/S Mountford (New Climate Economy), Caetano Penna 2.3 Current global emissions: status and trends ..................................................... 4 (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro), Miles Perry Language editing and translation of 2.4 Assessment of current policies: are G20 members on track to meet
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