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Gunnison Sage-Grouse Species Status Assessment Report

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Gunnison Sage-Grouse Species Status Assessment Report Species Status Assessment Report for the Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) Prepared by the Western Colorado Ecological Services Field Office U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Grand Junction, Colorado April 2019 Version: April 20, 2019 1 Suggested reference: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2019. Species status assessment report for Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). Version: April 20, 2019. Lakewood, Colorado. 2 CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 6 1.1.1 Information Compilation, Peer and Partner review ............................................................ 7 2 Species Ecology and Needs .............................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Species Description .................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Taxonomy ................................................................................................................................ 10 2.3 Life Stages and Basic Life History .......................................................................................... 10 2.4 Range and Distribution: Historical and Current ...................................................................... 12 2.4.1 Historical Range and Distribution .................................................................................... 15 2.5 Individual Resource Needs ...................................................................................................... 18 2.5.1 Sagebrush: Feeding and Shelter ........................................................................................ 19 2.5.2 Mesic Habitats: Feeding and Shelter ............................................................................... 19 2.5.3 Forbs and Insects: Feeding ............................................................................................... 19 2.5.4 Leks: Breeding ................................................................................................................. 19 2.5.5 Seasonal Migration for Suitable Habitat........................................................................... 20 2.5.6 Summary of Individual Resource Needs .......................................................................... 20 2.5.7 Uncertainties Regarding Individual Needs ....................................................................... 22 2.6 Population Needs ..................................................................................................................... 22 2.6.1 Population Size ................................................................................................................. 23 2.6.2 Recruitment ....................................................................................................................... 23 2.6.3 Survivorship ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.6.4 Connectivity ...................................................................................................................... 24 2.6.5 Population Viability Analyses .......................................................................................... 24 2.6.6 Summary: Population Needs ............................................................................................ 25 2.6.7 Uncertainties and Assumptions Regarding Population Needs ......................................... 26 2.7 Species Needs .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.7.1 Summary of Species Needs .............................................................................................. 27 2.7.2 Uncertainties Regarding Species Needs ........................................................................... 28 3 Current Condition ........................................................................................................................... 28 3.1 Assessing Population Resiliency: Condition Categories ......................................................... 28 3.1.1 Condition Categories for the Demographic Factors: High Male Counts ......................... 28 3.1.2 Condition Categories for the Habitat Factors: Quantity and Quality ............................... 29 3.1.3 Condition Categories to Evaluate Population Resilience ................................................. 30 CONDITION CATEGORIES USED TO EVAULATE POPULATION RESILIENCE .............. 31 3.2 Cause and Effects: Factors Influencing Viability .................................................................... 31 3 3.2.1 Population-Level Stressors ............................................................................................... 32 3.2.2 Individual-Level Stressors, not carried forward in Analysis ............................................ 35 3.3 Conservation Efforts ................................................................................................................ 36 3.3.1 Long-Term Protection on Private Lands .......................................................................... 37 3.3.2 Regulatory Measures on Private Lands ............................................................................ 37 3.3.3 Regulatory Measures on Public Lands ............................................................................. 37 3.3.4 Habitat Restoration Actions .............................................................................................. 38 3.3.5 Translocations and Captive Rearing ................................................................................. 38 3.4 Evaluating Current Condition .................................................................................................. 39 3.4.1 Gunnison Basin ................................................................................................................. 40 3.4.2 HMCs for “Satellite” Populations .................................................................................... 42 3.4.3 San Miguel ........................................................................................................................ 43 3.4.4 Piñon Mesa ....................................................................................................................... 45 3.4.5 Crawford ........................................................................................................................... 45 3.4.6 Cerro Summit-Cimarron-Sims Mesa ................................................................................ 46 3.4.7 Poncha Pass ...................................................................................................................... 46 3.4.8 Dove Creek ....................................................................................................................... 47 3.4.9 Monticello ......................................................................................................................... 47 3.5 Current Condition: Redundancy .............................................................................................. 48 3.6 Current Condition: Representation .......................................................................................... 48 3.7 Summary of Current Condition ................................................................................................ 50 4 Species Future Conditions .............................................................................................................. 52 4.1 Environmental and Climate Predictions .................................................................................. 52 4.2 Adaptation and Conservation Scenarios .................................................................................. 56 4.3 Evaluation of Future Scenarios to 2035 ................................................................................... 60 4.3.1 2035 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios with Continued Conservation 60 4.3.2 2035 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios plus Increased Conservation 63 4.3.3 2035 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios plus Decreased Conservation 66 4.3.4 Summary of Future Conditions to 2035 ........................................................................... 69 4.4 Evaluation of Future Scenarios to 2050 ................................................................................... 71 4.4.1 2050 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios with Continued Conservation 71 4.4.2 2050 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios plus Increased Conservation 74 4.4.3 2050 Continuation, Optimistic, and Pessimistic Scenarios plus Decreased Conservation 77 4 4.4.4 Summary of Future Conditions to 2050 ........................................................................... 80 5 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................................... 82 6 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................... 87 6.1 High Male Count Raw Data and Population Resiliency Calculations ..................................... 87 6.1.1 HMC Growth Rate ...........................................................................................................
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