DOCSLIB.ORG

Scottish Political Research April 2021

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Scottish Political Research April 2021 Lord Ashcroft Polls Scottish Political Research April 2021 2,017 adults in Scotland were interviewed online between 7 and 19 April 2021. Results have been weighted to be representative of all adults in Scotland. Full data tables are available at LordAshcroftPolls.com Eight online focus groups of voters in Edinburgh, Glasgow, Aberdeen and Ayr with a range of political views were held between 14 and 22 April 2021. Contents The Holyrood elections 3 Election issues 4 The pandemic 7 Parties and leaders 10 Independence 19 Lord Ashcroft Polls 2 The Holyrood elections We asked our poll respondents to rate how likely they were to use their first/constituency vote for each of the main political parties fighting the Holyrood election on a scale of 0-100. The SNP proved the most popular first vote choice among 49% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Scottish Conservatives were the most popular choice of 22%, Scottish Labour the choice of 15%, Scottish Liberal Democrats the choice of 8% and the Scottish Greens the choice of 5%. The SNP also had the most intense support. The average likelihood to vote SNP among those leaning towards the party in the first vote was 93/100 compared with 90/100 for those leaning towards the Scottish Tories, 88/100 for Scottish Labour, 85/100 for the Scottish Liberal Democrats and 85/100 for the Scottish Greens. When it came to the second/list vote, the SNP were the most popular first vote choice for 42% of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100. The Conservatives were the first choice for 22%, Labour 16%, the Greens 9%, the Lib Dems 7%, Alba and Reform UK each 2%. SNP support was less intense than in the first vote. Lord Ashcroft Polls 3 Election issues In our poll we offered respondents a choice of 25 issues facing Scotland and asked which issues they saw as the most important. Across the board Scottish voters listed healthcare and the NHS (43%) as well as Covid-19 (42%) as the most important issues facing Scotland, closely followed by the economy (33%). Focus groups often commented that the pandemic had dominated politics for the last year, with the Alex Salmond case and its aftermath being one of the few issues to break through. “The last thing to break through the covid noise was the Sturgeon/Salmond stuff. Covid has drowned out a lot of what would normally be pretty prevalent.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 4 However, the debate over independence remained the backdrop to Scottish political debate. A new referendum on Scottish independence was the one key issue that managed to stand out during the pandemic for voters. A third of SNP supporters – those who said they were likely to place their first vote for SNP in the 2021 Holyrood elections – said that getting another referendum on Scottish independence was among the three most important issues (34%). On the other hand, two fifths of Scottish Conservatives supporters – those who said they were likely to place their First Vote for the Scottish Conservatives in the 2021 Holyrood elections – named preventing another Scottish independence referendum among their top three (42%). Focus group participants often said they regretted that the independence debate crowded out issues like health, education and poverty, which they felt were in urgent need of attention – though some mentioned other SNP policies that they liked, including childcare, free prescriptions, and transport infrastructure. “All of our elections are generally around independence. We don't look as much at the social issues or things that need change or even the things that SNP aren't doing quite as well. It's such an important thing to everybody up here, no matter what side that you're on for it. Other things just tend to get drowned out. So, it just tends to be SNP for independence or someone else if you're against it.” “The fixation on independence has been at the cost of almost everything else – education, bin collections, potholes in the roads. We’re starting to resemble a third-world country in some parts of Scotland. Everything else has suffered because of this single-minded fixation on independence.” “I like what they’ve done with education in terms of free childcare places and free school meals. I’ve got two kids so that’s a huge impact for me.” Each party’s position on independence was the most important issue when it came to deciding how to vote in the Holyrood elections. Over a third of Scottish Conservatives supporters said it was the most important issue for them (36%), and just below a fifth of SNP supporters said the same (23%). Scottish voters also stated that the overall competence of the party (20%) and the vision for Scotland’s future (16%) were key factors in deciding which party to vote for. “The timing of trying to push for another independence referendum. Mentioning that she’s going to be going for that again is taking a bit of focus away from the Holyrood elections. It’s become divisive – it’s no longer voting for what you want for Scotland or how it’s run, you’re either voting for independence again right now or you’re voting against it.” “I want to be influenced in other ways. I would happily be convinced by the Labour party and I’ve voted Green in the past as well. I don’t want to hear the same arguments about independence. I’m going to make an informed choice regarding that. There’s a bigger picture to me.” “I’ll do what I need to get independence, but I think that after that I would have to sit down and look at it again and say, ‘who is it I actually want to run the country?’ So, for me at the moment, it’s tactical in terms of ‘let’s get independence done and then who’s going to offer the best option for us going forward if that happens?’” “In an ideal world it should be decided on education, the economy and so on. But unfortunately, we’re in a situation in Scotland where every election is constitutional and until that changes, I don’t think we’ll ever move forward. Everything is dwarfed by the Yes-No question.” “I feel like the SNP are the only party that will keep Scotland free of the Tories. They’re a good buffer. You almost want an antagonistic government in Scotland, otherwise the Tories will just do whatever they can get away with.” Lord Ashcroft Polls 5 Lord Ashcroft Polls 6 The pandemic Well over half of voters also believed the Scottish Government (60%), the SNP (54%) and Nicola Sturgeon (64%) herself had handled the covid pandemic well. Voters across the board – SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats and even a third (32%) of Scottish Conservatives supporters – felt Nicola Sturgeon had done a good job as First Minster during the crisis. Over half of Scottish voters thought the UK Government and the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, had responded to the pandemic poorly, compared to just below a fifth believing that they had responded well. This was reflected in our focus groups, where participants often contrasted Sturgeon’s approach to that of Johnson and the Westminster government, which they often thought vague or chaotic. This was true of voters on all sides, who often mentioned the clarity of Sturgeon’s daily briefings. Some felt she was prevented from taking further steps by London, especially on international travel and the border with England. However, some felt Sturgeon’s daily TV appearances had turned into an exercise in party politics or self-promotion. They also noted that her decision to lift some restrictions early coincided with the Holyrood election campaign. “I think we've done a better job dealing with it. To be fair, everybody was blindfolded so it was probably trial and error. But I feel Nicola Sturgeon has been more structured in how she dealt with the situation and never made false promises or skirted around things. I think she was quite firm in how she put across this is what will be happening, this is when you will get told. And so I actually admired her in the pandemic I’ve got to say.” “I felt like I felt like she showed up every day. She showed up and gave her speech. And you know one of her speeches, I think it was when was it she just showed a personal side – there was a Scottish word she used, and it was hilarious. ‘I’m scunnered, I’m gutted we cannot go out this weekend. I think it was a bank holiday weekend. And I think she was so personal. But it was just I think she just showed up every single day.” “The fact that she was so visible, she was on television giving daily briefings, giving figures, talking about the next steps. That went a long way for me. She’s always been frontline and transparent and saying she would love to lock down Scotland and not allow anybody in from other countries, but that’s Westminster.” “She seemed to take action on her MPs who strayed. She didn’t have a Dominic Cummings moment, she decided to punish people who broke the rules.” “She’s committed to being on TV every day. In the early stages of the pandemic the daily broadcast was very informative.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • New Conference 2017.Indd
    SCOTTISH GREENS AUTUMN CONFERENCE 2017 CONFERENCE LEADING THE CHANGE 21-22 October 2017 Contents 3. Welcome to Edinburgh 24. Sunday timetable 4. Welcome to Conference 26. Running order: Sunday 5. Guest speakers 28. Sunday events listings 6. How Conference works 32. Exhibitor information 10. Running order: Saturday 36. Venue maps 12. Child protection 40. Get involved! 13. Saturday events listings 41. Conference song 22. Saturday timetable 42. Exhibitor information Welcome to Edinburgh! I am pleased to be able to welcome you to the beautiful City of Edinburgh for the Scottish Green Party Autumn Conference. It’s been a challenging and busy year: firstly the very successful Local Council Elections, and then the snap General Election to test us even further. A big thank you to everyone involved. And congratulations – we have made record gains across the country electing more councillors than ever before! It is wonderful to see that Green Party policies have resonated with so many people across Scotland. We now have an opportunity to effect real change at a local level and make a tangible difference to people’s lives. At our annual conference we are able to further develop and shape our policies and debate the important questions that form our Green Party message. On behalf of the Edinburgh Greens, welcome to the Edinburgh Conference. Evelyn Weston, Co-convenor Edinburgh Greens 3 Welcome to our 2017 Autumn Conference! Welcome! We had a lot to celebrate at last year’s conference, with our best Holyrood election in more than a decade. This year we’ve gone even further, with the best council election in our party’s history.
    [Show full text]
  • Conservative Manifesto
    THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY MANIFESTO 2016 THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY MANIFESTO 2016 CHAPTER HEADING A STRONG OPPOSITION - A STRONGER SCOTLAND A STRONG OPPOSITION. A STRONGER SCOTLAND 1 THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVE AND UNIONIST PARTY MANIFESTO 2016 Contents RUTH DAVIDSON FOR A STRONG OPPOSITION Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 NO TO A SECOND REFERENDUM The facts ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Why it matters .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Our commitment ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 HOLDING THE SNP TO ACCOUNT Our programme for
    [Show full text]
  • Scottish Election Briefing 2011 Contents
    Scottish Election Briefing 2011 Contents 3 Introduction 9 Scottish National Party 13 Scottish Labour 18 Scottish Conservatives 22 Scottish Liberal Democrats 26 Scottish Green Party 27 UK Independence Party 28 Christian Peoples Alliance 29 Scottish Christian Party 30 Legislation summary: Scottish Parliament 2007-2011 35 References 38 Notes Copyright The Christian Institute 2011 Printed in April 2011 Published by The Christian Institute Wilberforce House, 4 Park Road, Gosforth Business Park Newcastle upon Tyne, NE12 8DG All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, or stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, mechanical, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Christian Institute. The Christian Institute is a Company Limited by Guarantee, registered in England as a charity whose main object is “the furtherance and promotion of the Christian Religion in the United Kingdom and elsewhere”. Company No. 263 4440; Charity No. 100 4774. A charity registered in Scotland. Charity No. SC039220. 2 Introduction Elections for the Scottish Parliament will take – the SNP, Labour, the Conservatives and the place on 5 May. As Christian citizens we should Liberal Democrats. There are other parties think carefully about how to vote. standing in the Scottish Parliament elections; The Christian Institute is a registered charity we have also included some of the known and cannot endorse any political party or policies of the Scottish Green Party and UKIP, candidate in elections. We cannot tell you who parties which have representation at national to vote for. That is a matter for you.
    [Show full text]
  • Media Culture for a Modern Nation? Theatre, Cinema and Radio in Early Twentieth-Century Scotland
    Media Culture for a Modern Nation? Theatre, Cinema and Radio in Early Twentieth-Century Scotland a study © Adrienne Clare Scullion Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD to the Department of Theatre, Film and Television Studies, Faculty of Arts, University of Glasgow. March 1992 ProQuest Number: 13818929 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 13818929 Published by ProQuest LLC(2018). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 Frontispiece The Clachan, Scottish Exhibition of National History, Art and Industry, 1911. (T R Annan and Sons Ltd., Glasgow) GLASGOW UNIVERSITY library Abstract This study investigates the cultural scene in Scotland in the period from the 1880s to 1939. The project focuses on the effects in Scotland of the development of the new media of film and wireless. It addresses question as to what changes, over the first decades of the twentieth century, these two revolutionary forms of public technology effect on the established entertainment system in Scotland and on the Scottish experience of culture. The study presents a broad view of the cultural scene in Scotland over the period: discusses contemporary politics; considers established and new theatrical activity; examines the development of a film culture; and investigates the expansion of broadcast wireless and its influence on indigenous theatre.
    [Show full text]
  • Meeting of the Parliament
    MEETING OF THE PARLIAMENT Thursday 19 February 2015 Session 4 © Parliamentary copyright. Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body Information on the Scottish Parliament’s copyright policy can be found on the website - www.scottish.parliament.uk or by contacting Public Information on 0131 348 5000 Thursday 19 February 2015 CONTENTS Col. GENERAL QUESTION TIME .................................................................................................................................. 1 Insult to Injury Campaign .............................................................................................................................. 1 Protecting Vulnerable Groups Scheme (Applications) ................................................................................. 2 NHS Lanarkshire (Meetings) ........................................................................................................................ 3 River Beds (Assistance to Farmers) ............................................................................................................. 3 Hospitals (Minimum Staffing Levels) ............................................................................................................ 4 National Health Service Central Register (Scotland) Regulations 2006 (Privacy Concerns) ...................... 6 Police Scotland (Merger) .............................................................................................................................. 7 NHS Borders (Meetings) .............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Universiv Microfilms International 3Ü0 N
    INFORMATION TO USERS This was produced from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or “target” for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is “Missing Page(s)”. If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure you of complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark it is an indication that the film inspector noticed either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, or duplicate copy. Unless we meant to delete copyrighted materials that should not have been filmed, you will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., is part of the material being photo­ graphed the photographer has followed a definite method in “sectioning” the material. It is customary to begin filming at the upper left hand comer cf a large sheet and to continue from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. If necessary, sectioning is continued again—beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. For any illustrations that cannot be reproduced satisfactorily by xerography, photographic prints can be purchased at additional cost and tipped into your xerographic copy.
    [Show full text]
  • Inventory Acc.3721 Papers of the Scottish Secretariat and of Roland
    Inventory Acc.3721 Papers of the Scottish Secretariat and of Roland Eugene Muirhead National Library of Scotland Manuscripts Division George IV Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1EW Tel: 0131-466 2812 Fax: 0131-466 2811 E-mail: [email protected] © Trustees of the National Library of Scotland Summary of Contents of the Collection: BOXES 1-40 General Correspondence Files [Nos.1-1451] 41-77 R E Muirhead Files [Nos.1-767] 78-85 Scottish Home Rule Association Files [Nos.1-29] 86-105 Scottish National Party Files [1-189; Misc 1-38] 106-121 Scottish National Congress Files 122 Union of Democratic Control, Scottish Federation 123-145 Press Cuttings Series 1 [1-353] 146-* Additional Papers: (i) R E Muirhead: Additional Files Series 1 & 2 (ii) Scottish Home Rule Association [Main Series] (iii) National Party of Scotland & Scottish National Party (iv) Scottish National Congress (v) Press Cuttings, Series 2 * Listed to end of SRHA series [Box 189]. GENERAL CORRESPONDENCE FILES BOX 1 1. Personal and legal business of R E Muirhead, 1929-33. 2. Anderson, J W, Treasurer, Home Rule Association, 1929-30. 3. Auld, R C, 1930. 4. Aberdeen Press and Journal, 1928-37. 5. Addressall Machine Company: advertising circular, n.d. 6. Australian Commissioner, 1929. 7. Union of Democratic Control, 1925-55. 8. Post-card: list of NPS meetings, n.d. 9. Ayrshire Education Authority, 1929-30. 10. Blantyre Miners’ Welfare, 1929-30. 11. Bank of Scotland Ltd, 1928-55. 12. Bannerman, J M, 1929, 1955. 13. Barr, Mrs Adam, 1929. 14. Barton, Mrs Helen, 1928. 15. Brown, D D, 1930.
    [Show full text]
  • The Scottish Conservative 2021 Manifesto | Rebuild Scotland
    The Scottish Conservative 2021 Manifesto | Rebuild Scotland 22 Apr 2021 Our manifesto is a positive policy programme, focused on rebuilding Scotland after the worst year that many of us have faced in living memory. On delivering an economic recovery that stops widespread unemployment and creates good jobs and growth in every part of our country. On supporting our education system to catch up every single pupil from a year of disrupted schooling – so that we do not face the prospect of a Covid- generation left behind. And funding our NHS to get through the backlog of a year of delayed operations. It is a programme that will ensure our recovery from coronavirus. Yet our manifesto does so much more than that, it sets out the issues that the Scottish Conservatives will fight for in the next Parliament. For renewing our justice system, so that it is firmly on the side of victims and not those who commit crime. For devolving power and funding to communities, so that we can put an end to the era of SNP centralisation and better support local services, like schools and roads. For creating a dynamic, innovative green economy, that works with business to drive a skills revolution and achieve our 2045 net zero ambition. And so much more. With our manifesto setting out 15 major bills that we would seek to take forward and pass through a Scottish Parliament working to rebuild our country. Using the powers of the Scottish Parliament to their maximum, rather than complaining that they are never enough. It is a manifesto that, at its heart, secures and accelerates our recovery from coronavirus.
    [Show full text]
  • Scottish Nationalism
    James Madison University JMU Scholarly Commons Masters Theses The Graduate School Summer 2012 Scottish nationalism: The symbols of Scottish distinctiveness and the 700 Year continuum of the Scots' desire for self determination Brian Duncan James Madison University Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/master201019 Part of the History Commons Recommended Citation Duncan, Brian, "Scottish nationalism: The symbols of Scottish distinctiveness and the 700 Year continuum of the Scots' desire for self determination" (2012). Masters Theses. 192. https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/master201019/192 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the The Graduate School at JMU Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Masters Theses by an authorized administrator of JMU Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Scottish Nationalism: The Symbols of Scottish Distinctiveness and the 700 Year Continuum of the Scots’ Desire for Self Determination Brian Duncan A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of JAMES MADISON UNIVERSITY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts History August 2012 Table of Contents Abstract…………………………………………………………………………….…….iii Chapter 1, Introduction……………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 2, Theoretical Discussion of Nationalism………………………………………11 Chapter 3, Early Examples of Scottish Nationalism……………………………………..22 Chapter 4, Post-Medieval Examples of Scottish Nationalism…………………………...44 Chapter 5, Scottish Nationalism Masked Under Economic Prosperity and British Nationalism…...………………………………………………….………….…………...68 Chapter 6, Conclusion……………………………………………………………………81 ii Abstract With the modern events concerning nationalism in Scotland, it is worth asking how Scottish nationalism was formed. Many proponents of the leading Modernist theory of nationalism would suggest that nationalism could not have existed before the late eighteenth century, or without the rise of modern phenomena like industrialization and globalization.
    [Show full text]
  • 2021 MSP Spreadsheet
    Constituency MSP Name Party Email Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray SNP [email protected] Coatbridge and Chryston Fulton MacGregor SNP [email protected] Cumbernauld and Kilsyth Jamie Hepburn SNP [email protected] East Kilbride Collette Stevenson SNP [email protected] Falkirk East Michelle Thomson SNP [email protected] Falkirk West Michael Matheson SNP [email protected] Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Christina McKelvie SNP [email protected] Motherwell and Wishaw Clare Adamson SNP [email protected] Uddingston and Bellshill Stephanie Callaghan SNP [email protected] Regional Central Scotland Richard Leonard Labour [email protected] Central Scotland Monica Lennon Labour [email protected] Central Scotland Mark Griffin Labour [email protected] Central Scotland Stephen Kerr Conservative [email protected] Central Scotland Graham Simpson Conservative [email protected] Central Scotland Meghan Gallacher Conservative [email protected] Central Scotland Gillian Mackay Green [email protected] Constituency MSP Name Party Email Glasgow Anniesland Bill Kidd SNP [email protected] Glasgow Cathcart James Dornan SNP [email protected] Glasgow Kelvin Kaukab Stewart SNP [email protected] Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn Bob Doris SNP [email protected]
    [Show full text]
  • Official Report Is Accurate
    Meeting of the Parliament (Hybrid) Thursday 17 June 2021 Session 6 © Parliamentary copyright. Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body Information on the Scottish Parliament’s copyright policy can be found on the website - www.parliament.scot or by contacting Public Information on 0131 348 5000 Thursday 17 June 2021 CONTENTS Col. FIRST MINISTER’S QUESTION TIME ..................................................................................................................... 1 Drug Deaths .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Covid-19 (Personal Protective Equipment) .................................................................................................. 5 Climate Targets ............................................................................................................................................ 9 Covid-19 (Business Support) ...................................................................................................................... 11 Malicious Prosecutions (Inquiry) ................................................................................................................. 12 Psychiatric Hospitals (Discharge Delays) ................................................................................................... 13 Removal of Dental Charges ....................................................................................................................... 14 ScotRail Strike Action ................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Mcgarvey and Cairney, 2008
    McGarvey Prelims 20/3/08 9:07 am Page i Scottish Politics McGarvey Prelims 20/3/08 9:07 am Page ii McGarvey Prelims 20/3/08 9:07 am Page iii Scottish Politics An Introduction Neil McGarvey and Paul Cairney McGarvey Prelims 20/3/08 9:07 am Page iv © Neil McGarvey and Paul Cairney 2008 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2008 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN-13: 978–1–4039–4328–6 hardback ISBN-10: 1–4039–4328–1 hardback ISBN-13: 978–1–4039–4329–3 paperback ISBN-10: 1–4039–4329–X paperback This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.
    [Show full text]