The existing environment and potential impacts of the Master Plan are complex. For each environmental topic, information on existing conditions and potential environmental consequences have been merged into one subsection to eliminate repetition of material, and for the convenience of the reader. The proposed action is a Master Plan or long range guidance document, and no physical development will actually occur under the proposed action. No direct impacts or consequences will occur as a result of the proposed action. Environmental consequences are conditional, and dependent on the extent to which proposed projects are actually implemented or built. This EIS presents an overview of the cumulative environmental consequences that would occur if all the proposed facilities were to be built. Actual cumulative impacts may range anywhere between those for the No Action Alternative and the Master Plan Alternative. 5.1 SOCIOECONOMIC/LAND USE 5.1.1 Overview The National Institutes of Health main campus is located in Montgomery County, Maryland, one of the largest jurisdictions in the Washington, D.C. region. As a result of expansion of the urbanized area, cross-commuting patterns, and other economic interrelationships, the federal Government recently designated a broader Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area for this region. This new CMSA encompasses both the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan areas, incorporating an area of nearly 9,600 square miles circumscribed by a 75 mile radius around downtown Washington, D.C. The limits of the CMSA extend from the Pennsylvania border to the edge of metropolitan Richmond, Virginia. On an east-west axis, the CMSA stretches from Queen Anne's County, Maryland, on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay to Berkeley and Jefferson Counties, in the West Virginia panhandle (Population of Metropolitan Areas and Component Geography: 1980 and 1990 (6/30/93 definition), 1990 CPH-L-145, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1993. The region is growing at a very rapid rate, with communities and employment spreading over an ever- widening geographic area. This spread is reflected in the residential location patterns of NIH employees and the broad area affected by NIH's "local" procurement. The population of the Washington-Baltimore CMSA in 2000 was 7.6 million, making it the fourth largest in the nation out of 280 designated CMSAs. It is also one of the most rapidly growing of the larger urbanized areas, with a population increase of 13 percent between 1990 and 2000. The MD-VA-DC Metropolitan Washington Area portion had 5.3 million people in 2000, an increase of 26 percent over 1990. Montgomery County is the second largest jurisdiction within the Washington-Baltimore region. With 873,000 people in 2000, it is second only to Fairfax County, Virginia, which has a population of 970,000. Baltimore County ranked third, with 754,000. Montgomery County's population represents about 16 percent of the total MD-DC-VA Metropolitan Area population, and about 11 percent of total CMSA population. Montgomery County has been one of the most rapidly growing of the larger jurisdictions in the region over the past decade. Population increased by nearly 116,000 between 1990 and 2000, or 15 percent. Only Fairfax County experienced a larger absolute growth with a 152,000 population increase during the same period. 5-1 Projections call for Montgomery County to continue to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower rate than over the past decade. Between 2000 and 2020, Montgomery County is expected to increase by about 145,000 people, bringing its total population to 1,018,000 (Preliminary Population Projections for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, Maryland Department of Planning, 2001. The County's land area is approximately 495 square miles, or about 320,000 acres. Between 1960 and 1991, the amount of developed land in the County more than tripled. As of 1960, about 49,000 acres, or 15 percent, of the County's land area had been developed; by 1991 a total of about 155,000 acres, or 48 percent, was urbanized. Residential land uses have grown most rapidly, with single family dwellings occupying the largest portion of the expanded urbanized area. In 1960, 23,000 acres, or 7.2 percent of the land area, was in single-family use, and by 1991, single family residential areas had increased to 86,800 acres, or about 27 percent of the County's land area. Multi-family residential land use has been clustered in a relatively few locations, utilizing far less land - 700 acres in 1960 and 6,700 acres in 1991, the latter scarcely over 2 percent of the County's land (General Plan Refinement Goals & Objectives: Then & Now, Supplemental Fact Sheets, Montgomery County Planning Department, January 1993). One of the largest concentrations of multi-family housing in the County is in Bethesda. Including local and federal government, land use devoted to institutional uses also increased, from 10,600 acres in 1960, to 22,800 acres in 1991. The National Institutes of Health main campus with its 310 acres is counted in this institutional category of land uses. Montgomery County had a total of nearly 296,000 housing units in 1990, having added over 8,000 dwellings a year in the two decades since 1970. The number of housing units nearly doubled during this period, exceeding the 56 percent growth rate experienced in the metropolitan region as a whole. During this period of rapid growth, the County's housing stock also changed significantly. Single family detached housing declined in share of the market from 68 percent to 52 percent, while townhouses increased from just 1 percent in 1970 to 17 percent (50,000 units) in 1990 (ibid). Multi-family units remained relatively constant with a 30 percent share of the mix. Montgomery County housing units increased to 334,000 in 2000. Growth in housing supply has basically followed the patterns established in the County's General Plan, known as Wedges and Corridors. That plan sought to avoid suburban "sprawl" by channeling growth into the County's radial transportation corridors - particularly I-270 and U.S. 29 - and into the more densely developed down-County area nearest the District of Columbia, known as the urban ring, while preserving the wedges in between the corridors for rural land use and open space. Bethesda and NIH are in the urban ring. Residential zoning under the General Plan has been "pegged" to growth projections for the year 2000. Undeveloped residential land under densities projected in the Plan could accommodate 144,300 new dwellings. At County absorption rates of the past 20 years, this would be an 18-year supply. Less than 10 percent of the total future residential development areas are within walking distance of Metrorail stations in the County. 5.1.2 Land Use and Regional Planning Montgomery County is divided into 37 planning areas. Master plans for each planning area provide a comprehensive set of recommendations and guidelines for growth and development while protecting existing land uses, community facilities and needs, and environmental and historic resources, and maintaining the transportation network. The area master plans are combined to form a general plan for the County, which in turn, is an element in regional planning for the Washington metropolitan area. Sector plans are prepared for local communities and heavily developed areas within the planning areas. 5-2 Master area and sector plans are prepared by the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC) and pass through several stages of development before adoption: preliminary draft, final draft, and adopted plan. The NIH Bethesda campus is located in the Mid-Bethesda sector of Bethesda-Chevy Chase, Montgomery County Planning Area 35, the southernmost in the County (Figure 5-1). The applicable planning document for the area is the Bethesda-Chevy Chase Master Plan, M-NCPPC, 1990, which was approved and adopted by M-NCPPC in April, 1990. The purpose of the plan is to establish a policy framework that will guide the direction of Bethesda-Chevy Chase for the next 20 years. Bethesda was a suburban village until the 1950s, a focal point for shopping and community services on a limited scale. Now, it is the "downtown" or Central Business District (CBD) of the planning area with the greatest concentration of commercial and office development within the Bethesda Chevy Chase planning area. Planning for the Bethesda CBD is conducted in much greater detail, nearly on a parcel by parcel basis, in the Bethesda CBD Sector Plan. Planning for the two areas is coordinated and complementary. From 1990 to 1992, M-NCPPC undertook research and elaboration of preliminary proposals that were presented to the Montgomery County Planning Board in July 1993. A Citizen Advisory Committee, including representation from senior NIH staff, participated in formulating the Draft. After public review in hearings and work sessions, the Comprehensive Amendment to the Bethesda CBD Sector Plan was adopted by the County Council in 1994. The area master and sector plans are tied to County planning through the Annual Growth Policy (AGP) for Montgomery County (FY 00 Annual Growth Policy, Montgomery County Planning Board, 1999), which is updated each year. This document provides guidelines that translate needs indicated in local plans into capital improvements, not only for a specific area, but also County-wide. 5.1.2.1 Bethesda-Chevy Chase Master Plan The Bethesda-Chevy Chase (BCC) Master Plan establishes seven goals and objectives for the planning area: • Perpetuate and enhance the high quality of life which exists in the BCC Planning Area. • Achieve a level of future employment development that is in balance with a high quality of life and the transportation capacity of the Planning Area. • Provide for a balanced housing supply so that persons of varying income levels, ages, backgrounds, and household characteristics may find suitable housing appropriate to their needs.