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Kazakhstan Missile Chronology
Kazakhstan Missile Chronology Last update: May 2010 As of May 2010, this chronology is no longer being updated. For current developments, please see the Kazakhstan Missile Overview. This annotated chronology is based on the data sources that follow each entry. Public sources often provide conflicting information on classified military programs. In some cases we are unable to resolve these discrepancies, in others we have deliberately refrained from doing so to highlight the potential influence of false or misleading information as it appeared over time. In many cases, we are unable to independently verify claims. Hence in reviewing this chronology, readers should take into account the credibility of the sources employed here. Inclusion in this chronology does not necessarily indicate that a particular development is of direct or indirect proliferation significance. Some entries provide international or domestic context for technological development and national policymaking. Moreover, some entries may refer to developments with positive consequences for nonproliferation. 2009-1947 March 2009 On 4 March 2009, Kazakhstan signed a contract to purchase S-300 air defense missile systems from Russia. According to Ministry of Defense officials, Kazakhstan plans to purchase 10 batteries of S-300PS by 2011. Kazakhstan's Air Defense Commander Aleksandr Sorokin mentioned, however, that the 10 batteries would still not be enough to shield all the most vital" facilities designated earlier by a presidential decree. The export version of S- 300PS (NATO designation SA-10C Grumble) has a maximum range of 75 km and can hit targets moving at up to 1200 m/s at a minimum altitude of 25 meters. -
The Agenda for Arms Control Negotiations After the Moscow Treaty
The Agenda for Arms Control Negotiations After the Moscow Treaty PONARS Policy Memo 278 Nikolai Sokov Monterey Institute of International Studies October 2002 Ratification of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT, or the Moscow Treaty), signed by Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush on May 24, 2002, is all but certain. Critics in both capitals have apparently been proven wrong—it turned out to be possible to break with three decades of arms control experience and traditions and to sign a treaty that almost completely lacks substantive provisions; even those that are included into the treaty cannot be efficiently verified. In contrast, this treaty exemplifies the Bush administration’s assertion that the United States and Russia no longer need complicated treaties that impose many restrictions on the maintenance, operation, and modernization of the two countries’ nuclear arsenals. Optimism about near unlimited flexibility, which the new treaty grants both sides, seems misguided, however. Although traditional concerns about a “bolt out of the blue” first strike have no place in the existing environment, both sides still need the reassurance and mutual trust that only a robust transparency regime could provide. Both sides have already proclaimed their intention to pursue further negotiations: the United States appears to favor the exchange of data whereas Russia seems more interested in measures that would limit the uploading capability of the United States. Either way, at issue is the predictability of the U.S.-Russia strategic relationship. The stable cooperative relations between the United States and Russia offer an opportunity that should not be missed. The two sides feel reasonably safe vis-à-vis one another and can afford approaching transparency negotiations without undue haste. -
The Breach: Ukraine's Territorial Integrity and the Budapest Memorandum
Issue Brief #3 Nuclear Proliferation International History Project The Breach: Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the Budapest Memorandum Mariana Budjeryn Russia’s annexation of Crimea and covert invasion of eastern Ukraine places an uncomfortable focus on the worth of the security assurances pledged to Ukraine by the nuclear powers in exchange for its denuclearization. In 1994, the three depository states of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)—Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom—extended positive and negative security assurances to Ukraine. The depository states underlined their commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by signing the so-called “Budapest Memorandum.”1 Using new archival records, this examination of Ukraine’s search for security guarantees in the early 1990s reveals that, ironically, the threat of border revisionism by Russia was the single gravest concern of Ukraine’s leadership when surrendering the nuclear arsenal. The failure of the Budapest Memorandum to deter one of Ukraine’s security guarantors from military aggression has important implications both for Ukraine’s long-term security and for the value of security assurances for future international nonproliferation and disarmament efforts. Russia’s breach of the Memorandum invites strong scrutiny of other security commitments and opens an enormous rhetorical opportunity for proliferators to lobby for a nuclear deterrent. UKRAINE’S NUCLEAR PREDICAMENT In 1991, Ukraine inherited the world’s third largest more cautious approach to its nuclear inheritance, nuclear arsenal as a result of the collapse of the concerned that Russia’s monopoly on nuclear arms Soviet Union.2 By mid-1996, all nuclear munitions in the post-Soviet space would be conducive to its had been transferred from Ukraine to Russia resurgence as a dominating force in the region. -
Detente Or Razryadka? the Kissinger-Dobrynin Telephone Transcripts and Relaxing American-Soviet Tensions, 1969-1977
Claremont Colleges Scholarship @ Claremont CGU Theses & Dissertations CGU Student Scholarship 2013 Detente or Razryadka? The Kissinger-Dobrynin Telephone Transcripts and Relaxing American- Soviet Tensions, 1969-1977. Daniel S. Stackhouse Jr. Claremont Graduate University Recommended Citation Stackhouse, Daniel S. Jr.. (2013). Detente or Razryadka? The Kissinger-Dobrynin Telephone Transcripts and Relaxing American-Soviet Tensions, 1969-1977.. CGU Theses & Dissertations, 86. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgu_etd/86. doi: 10.5642/cguetd/86 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the CGU Student Scholarship at Scholarship @ Claremont. It has been accepted for inclusion in CGU Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholarship @ Claremont. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Détente or Razryadka? The Kissinger-Dobrynin Telephone Transcripts and Relaxing American-Soviet Tensions, 1969-1977 by Daniel S. Stackhouse, Jr. A final project submitted to the Faculty of Claremont Graduate University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History. Claremont Graduate University 2013 Copyright Daniel S. Stackhouse, Jr., 2013 All rights reserved. APPROVAL OF THE REVIEW COMMITTEE This dissertation has been duly read, reviewed, and critiqued by the Committee listed below, which hereby approves the manuscript of Daniel S. Stackhouse, Jr. as fulfilling the scope and quality requirements for meriting the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Janet Farrell Brodie, Chair Claremont Graduate University Professor of History William Jones Claremont Graduate University Professor of History Joshua Goode Claremont Graduate University Professor of History ABSTRACT Détente or Razryadka? The Kissinger-Dobrynin Telephone Transcripts and Relaxing American-Soviet Tensions, 1969-1977 by Daniel S. -
Iranian Influence in the South Caucasus and the Surrounding Region
IRANIAN INFLUENCE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE SURROUNDING REGION HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON EUROPE AND EURASIA OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION DECEMBER 5, 2012 Serial No. 112–192 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Affairs ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.foreignaffairs.house.gov/ or http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 77–164PDF WASHINGTON : 2012 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 0ct 09 2002 16:38 Jan 03, 2013 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 F:\WORK\EE\120512\77164 HFA PsN: SHIRL COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, Florida, Chairman CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, New Jersey HOWARD L. BERMAN, California DAN BURTON, Indiana GARY L. ACKERMAN, New York ELTON GALLEGLY, California ENI F.H. FALEOMAVAEGA, American DANA ROHRABACHER, California Samoa DONALD A. MANZULLO, Illinois BRAD SHERMAN, California EDWARD R. ROYCE, California ELIOT L. ENGEL, New York STEVE CHABOT, Ohio GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York RON PAUL, Texas RUSS CARNAHAN, Missouri MIKE PENCE, Indiana ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey JOE WILSON, South Carolina GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia CONNIE MACK, Florida THEODORE E. DEUTCH, Florida JEFF FORTENBERRY, Nebraska BEN CHANDLER, Kentucky MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas BRIAN HIGGINS, New York TED POE, Texas ALLYSON SCHWARTZ, Pennsylvania GUS M. BILIRAKIS, Florida CHRISTOPHER S. MURPHY, Connecticut JEAN SCHMIDT, Ohio FREDERICA WILSON, Florida BILL JOHNSON, Ohio KAREN BASS, California DAVID RIVERA, Florida WILLIAM KEATING, Massachusetts MIKE KELLY, Pennsylvania DAVID CICILLINE, Rhode Island TIM GRIFFIN, Arkansas TOM MARINO, Pennsylvania JEFF DUNCAN, South Carolina ANN MARIE BUERKLE, New York RENEE ELLMERS, North Carolina ROBERT TURNER, New York YLEEM D.S. -
The Intervention in Afghanistan · and the Fall of Detente
I I I Nobel Symposium 95 I I The Intervention in I Afghanistan I · and the Fall of Detente I I Lysebu September 17-20, 1995 I --·····-- I Transcribed by Svetlana Savranskaya I Edited by David A. Welch and I Odd Arne Westad i --·····-- i The Norwegian Nobel Institute Oslo 1996 I "" I I I I Nobel Symposium 95 I I The Intervention in I Afghanistan I and the Fall of Detente I I Lysebu September 17-20, 1995 I ..•.. I Transcribed by Svetlana Savranskaya I Edited by David A. Welch and I Odd Arne W estad I ..... I The Norwegian Nobel Institute Oslo 1996 I I I ~ I I INTRODUCTION This is the full transcript ofthe Nobel Symposium held at Lysebu from 17 to 19 September 1995. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the reasons for the collapse of the period of I detente in US-Soviet relations in the late 1970s, and especially the causes and effects of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979. The participants at the symposium were former I political, diplomatic, and military leaders from Russia and the United States, and a small group of American, Russian, and European·,, scholars with special knowledge of this period. I The symposium was the final meeting in a series of conferences on this topic organized by the Center for Foreign Policy Development of the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University. In addition to looking more closely at the deterioration ofUS-Soviet I relations from 1977 to 1980, this project aimed at investigating some of the comparative aspects of processes of decline in great power cooperation. -
*Chapter 1 7/25/00 8:33 AM Page 3
*chapter 1 7/25/00 8:33 AM Page 3 CHAPTER ONE Nuclear Arms Control at a Crossroads uclear arms control is at a crossroads. The old regime has been assaulted Nby the degradation of Russia’s nuclear command and control and early warning network; a standstill in the development of U.S.-Russian coopera- tion on the securing and safety of nuclear weapons and fissile material stock- piles; China’s ongoing development of strategic nuclear forces; new threats of nuclear proliferation from South Asia and North Korea; and a gathering oppo- sition in Russia and the United States to a continuation of negotiations on strategic arms reductions that led to the START I and START II agreements. The Danger of Accidental, Unauthorized, Mistaken Nuclear Launch There is growing apprehension among experts that Russia’s command, con- trol, and intelligence system, including its network of radar installations for warning of a missile attack, is deteriorating in ways that could jeopardize the ability of the country’s central authority to control nuclear weapons. This is deeply worrisome because U.S. and Russian command and control systems could interact in dangerous and unstable ways, given that both the United States and Russia maintain and regularly exercise a capability to launch on warning thousands of nuclear warheads after a missile attack is detected but before the incoming warheads arrive. The United States could launch approximately 2,700 strategic warheads within minutes; Russia 2,100. Even after the full implementation of the START I and START II Treaties, the United States would still be able to launch more than 1,600 warheads and Russia at least several hundred within a few minutes of an order to do so (see the tables at the end of chapter 7). -
START I: a Retrospective Stuart Polen University of Illinois at Urbana
IJOIS Spring 2017, Volume III Program in Arms Control & Domestic and International Security START I: A Retrospective Stuart Polen University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Abstract For decades, the United States (U.S.) and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) were competing to be the dominant global military power. However, after a series of crises, both states realized that if the status quo was maintained, it could mean the destruction of their states and the rest of the world. Thus, the U.S. and USSR agreed to limit their production of nuclear weapons. Eventually, the states decided that arms reduction would be the future and the resulting agreement would change the international power structure. The negotiations lasted for nine years, including a hiatus, and also led to another iteration of the treaty before the agreement was ratified. This study analyzes various aspects of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations, including the different stakeholders, their goals and tactics, alternatives, and the other factors that led to the final agreement. This study also analyzes the long-term effects of the treaty, its success, and who came out on top from START. 1 START I A Retrospective Stuart Polen Introduction During most of the Cold War, the U.S. and USSR engaged in a series of arms races to gain influence and hard power globally. Tensions from the arms races culminated with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Afterwards, the states began the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT). These talks began so the states could reach an agreement on limiting the deployment of various nuclear weapons, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) (U.S. -
NPR 1.2: Nuclear Politics and the Future Security of Kazakhstan
Murat Laumulin (Editor's Note: This viewpoint was written and sent to The Nonproliferation Review from Almaty, Kazakhstan, in early December 1993. The Kazakh parliament ratified the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) on December 13th, 1993. On that same day, in Almaty, the United States and Kazakhstan signed the Agreement On Assistance with the Dismantlement of Soviet SS-18 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. In his essay, Dr. Laumulin explains the decisionmaking processes and rationale on the Kazakh side that led up to this important agreement. He also discusses Kazakhstan's expectations regarding Western behavior beyond the agreement.) azakhstan's position on nuclear issues became more Because the Soviet Union was a nuclear state, it had no clearly defined over the course of 1993. During the need for IAEA safeguards. Consequently, Kazakhstan also Kfinal months of 1993, the political life of the Repub- had no experience with such safeguards. Now, the Atomic lic of Kazakhstan was replete with events concerning nuclear Energy Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan--headed by questions. An anti-nuclear con- General Director V. S. Shkolnik- ference, organized by the Ne- -has developed a program for in- vada-Semipalatinsk movement, cluding Kazakhstan's nuclear fa- was held in Almaty at the end VIEWPOINT: cilities within the framework of of the summer. This latest con- the IAEA. Nevertheless, seri- ference differed from its prede- ous obstacles are being encoun- cessors in that the demand be- NUCLEAR tered in training personnel and ing made--closing the Lobnor providing technical back-up to nuclear testing site in Sinxiang POLITICS AND make sure that our nuclear fa- (Eastern Turkestan)--affected cilities are covered by IAEA diplomatic and intergovernmen- safeguards. -
Npr 1.3: Ukraine's Flawed Nuclear Diplomacy
Steven E. Miller n December 1991, U.S. Secretary of State James Ukraine has combined the rhetoric of denuclearization Baker visited Kiev to consult with the leaders of newly with behavior that has raised doubts about the sincerity Iindependent Ukraine. Nuclear weapons figured of its commitment to become a non-nuclear state. prominently in these There are a discussions. Pres- number of plausible ident Leonid explanations for Kravchuk of Ukraine VIEWPOINT: Ukraine’s ambigu- agreed that the with- ous nuclear policy.2 drawal of Soviet tac- One is that its com- tical nuclear weapons mitment to denucle- from Ukrainian soil UKRAINE'S FLAWED arize is sincere, but would commence implementation of immediately; and he NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY this commitment is assured Secretary of hindered by a variety State Baker that of practical and po- Ukraine was firmly litical difficulties. committed to becom- by Steven E. Miller A second interpreta- ing a non-nuclear tion suggests that weapon state. The Ukraine has not American delegation made a firm and fi- left Ukraine feeling that the visit had been a success and nal decision to become a nuclear weapon state, but for that the nuclear weapons issue had been addressed in a the time being does not wish to foreclose the option to satisfactory fashion.1 After this relatively promising be- do so.3 A third possible explanation of Ukraine’s am- ginning, however, the road has been far from smooth. biguous nuclear behavior is that Ukraine wishes to be- To be sure, Ukrainian leaders have on numerous occa- come a nuclear-armed power but is not yet prepared to sions reiterated the pledge to denuclearize. -
Kazakhstan Nuclear Chronology
Kazakhstan Nuclear Chronology 2010 | 2009-2000 | 1999-1990 Last update: August 2010 This annotated chronology is based on the data sources that follow each entry. Public sources often provide conflicting information on classified military programs. In some cases we are unable to resolve these discrepancies, in others we have deliberately refrained from doing so to highlight the potential influence of false or misleading information as it appeared over time. In many cases, we are unable to independently verify claims. Hence in reviewing this chronology, readers should take into account the credibility of the sources employed here. Inclusion in this chronology does not necessarily indicate that a particular development is of direct or indirect proliferation significance. Some entries provide international or domestic context for technological development and national policymaking. Moreover, some entries may refer to developments with positive consequences for nonproliferation. 2010 16 June 2010 It was announced that plans for a joint uranium enrichment center (UEC) between Kazakhstan and Russia located at the Angarsk Electro-Chemical Combine were dropped due to lack of economic feasibility. Reportedly, Kazakhstan may instead buy shares in one of Russia's four already operating enrichment centers. The UEC is separate from the international uranium enrichment center (IUEC) already operating in Angarsk. IUEC, created with the IAEA's approval, is meant to provide uranium enrichment for civilian purposes to states party to the NPT. Kazakhstan and Russia are already partners at the IUEC, with Rosatom owning 90%. Ukraine and Armenia are expected to join the project. — Judith Perera, "Change of plan on Kazakh uranium enrichment," McCloskey Nuclear Business, 16 June 2010. -
Questions and Answers on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
CHAPTER 10 SUMMING UP: QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ON THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY David Hafemeister* Center for International Security Studies, School ofPublic Affairs, University ofMaryland My experiences with the ratification ofthe Strategic Anus Reduction Treaty, the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty have led me to conclude that presenting technical issues early in the process greatly reduces their politicization during the ratification end game. This chapter summarizes the important issues that will be raised during the debate on ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. It uses a compact question and answer fonnat to cover the following topics: 1. Nuclear Proliferation, n. Nuclear Arms Control, III. Warhead Reliability and Yield for National Security, IV. Warhead Safety, V. Verification, and VI. The Verification-Compliance process. Each section begins with a statement of conclusions, fol lowed by a set ofrelevant questions and answers. I. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION Conclusions: For 40 years, a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been considered the quid pro quo by the 175 non-nuclear weapon states (NNWSs) for them to end their sovereign right to develop nuclear weapons. Without cooperation by the five nuclear weapon states (NWSs), the NNWSs will limit their participation in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and in other non-proliferation arenas. The CTBT and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are forever politically linked in the global regime to prevent nuclear proliferation by creating a norm that outlaws nuclear weapons programs, by negating confidence in untested though unsophisti cated weapons, and by preventing development of sophisticated fission and fusion weapons.