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THE KREMLIN WARS (SPECIAL COVERAGE): The Fight for the Interior Ministry Feb. 4, 2010 This analysis may not be forwarded or republished without express permission from STRATFOR. For permission, please submit a request to [email protected]. 1 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com THE KREMLIN WARS (SPECIAL COVERAGE): The Fight for the Interior Ministry Vladislav Surkov, head of one of Russia’s two most powerful political clans and deputy chief of staff to President Dmitri Medvedev, reportedly has plans for a major overhaul of the Russian Interior Ministry. The ministry is one of the cornerstones of power for Igor Sechin, the deputy prime minister and Surkov’s rival. Surkov’s plans for the ministry are meant to render Sechin’s allies in the ministry politically impotent — but the plans have yet to be approved by Russia’s primary decision-maker, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Editor’s Note: This piece is part of STRATFOR’s ongoing coverage of the latest developments in the power struggle within the Kremlin. As the Kremlin Wars — a struggle between Russia’s two powerful political clans — continue to unfold, one of the fiercest and most dangerous fights is the struggle for the control of the Interior Ministry, one of the most powerful ministries in Russia. STRATFOR sources in the Kremlin have said that Vladislav Surkov, deputy chief of staff to President Dmitri Medvedev and leader of one of the Kremlin’s two rival clans, is planning a major reorganization of the Interior Ministry. The overhaul would see the ministry — a central bastion of power for Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, leader of the other clan made up of the siloviki (members of Russia’s various security services with positions of power in government and business) — stripped of many of its troops and much of its investigative authority. The move is part of the ongoing contest for power within the Kremlin between Sechin and Surkov. The plans are still in the early stages and have yet to be approved by Russia’s chief decision-maker, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Russia’s Interior Ministry, led by Rashid Nurgaliyev, is one of the most powerful ministries in Russia. In the tradition of Europe’s interior ministries — which normally are responsible for internal security — Russia’s is in charge of the police forces, paramilitary units and investigations. The ministry traditionally has also been closely associated with intelligence and security services. During the Czarist era, Russia’s Interior Ministry controlled both the gendarmes and the secret police (then called the Okhrana). In the early Soviet Union, Felix Dzerzhinsky — founder of the feared Cheka secret police, the precursor to the KGB — became the first Soviet interior minister and head of the secret police. The ministry’s armed personnel are divided into regular local police forces, often called militsiya, federal police forces and paramilitary troops. Interior Ministry paramilitary troops — which number around 200,000 — are some of the best-trained and best-equipped armed forces in Russia and have ample combat experience, with an excellent record of service in various conflicts in the North Caucasus, most notably Chechnya. Throughout the Soviet and post-Soviet era, the ministry has maintained its close links with the Federal Security Service (FSB) and has drawn its leadership straight from the FSB’s ranks. Nurgaliyev, for example, was in charge of internal affairs at the FSB before becoming interior minister. To this day the FSB largely considers the Interior Ministry as its own armed wing, meaning the FSB does not have to rely on the Russian military — which often has its own agenda — for military support. Thus, the ministry is a central pillar of the Sechin clan’s power — and a prime target for Surkov and his allies in the Medvedev administration. 2 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com STRATFOR has already identified the Interior Ministry as a major front in the Kremlin clan wars. As part of the first salvo against Sechin’s hold over the ministry, Medvedev signed a decree in late December 2009 calling for a 20 percent reduction in personnel within two years — a harbinger of reforms to come in 2010. The ultimate goal for Surkov is to see Nurgaliyev replaced, possibly with one of his own men — Sergei Stepashin, who heads the Audit Chamber and the Federal Antimonopoly Service and is charged with reforming the Interior Ministry. However, Sechin has been very clear that in the coming personnel changes in the Russian government, he draws the line at the Interior Ministry, seeking to protect Nurgaliyev’s position and his FSB followers within the ministry from a massive purge. Surkov, understanding that it could be difficult to dislodge Nurgaliyev, therefore hopes to enact several reforms that will neutralize Nurgaliyev’s power from within the ministry. STRATFOR sources say the first proposed change is to further compartmentalize the federal and militsiya police forces, with the federal forces handling serious concerns such as organized crime, corruption and terrorism, while the local militsiyas handle general law-and-order concerns. However, the key part of the plan — which should take shape in the next few months — is the possible removal of the ministry’s elite paramilitary units, its most effective tactical component, from the Interior Ministry’s control. The 200,000-strong units would be folded in with Russia’s Civil Defense Forces, 3 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com which are controlled by the Ministry for Emergency Situations — which is led by Surkov ally Sergei Shoigu. Furthermore, Surkov wants to transfer all of the ministry’s major investigative work to the Prosecutor General’s Office, creating a new investigative unit akin to the U.S. FBI. This means that the ministry would lose not only its brawn (the paramilitary units) but also its brain. Putin will review these proposals for reforms in two weeks. At that point, there should be more clarity on the issue as news of potential changes begins trickling from Russia. It is likely that some of the reforms proposed by Surkov will be nixed or extremely diluted as Putin strives to maintain a balance between the clans. Sechin always has the option to fight back by telling Putin that Surkov and Medvedev’s suggestions for reform have gone too far. In the interest of keeping the warring clans balanced within the Kremlin, Putin could reject the more extreme proposals. 4 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com STRATFOR is the world leader in global intelligence. Our team of experts collects and analyzes intelligence from every part of the world -- offering unparalleled insights through our exclusively published analyses and forecasts. Whether it is on political, economic or military developments, STRATFOR not only provides its members with a better understanding of current issues and events, but invaluable assessments of what lies ahead. Renowned author and futurologist George Friedman founded STRATFOR in 1996. Most recently, he authored the international bestseller, The Next 100 Years. Dr. Friedman is supported by a team of professionals with widespread experience, many of whom are internationally recognized in their own right. Although its headquarters are in Austin, Texas, STRATFOR’s staff is widely distributed throughout the world. “Barron’s has consistently found STRATFOR’s insights informative and largely on the money-as has the company’s large client base, which ranges from corporations to media outlets and government agencies.” -- Barron’s What We Offer On a daily basis, STRATFOR members are made aware of what really matters on an international scale. At the heart of STRATFOR’s service lies a series of analyses which are written without bias or political preferences. We assume our readers not only want international news, but insight into the developments behind it. In addition to analyses, STRATFOR members also receive access to an endless supply of SITREPS (situational reports), our heavily vetted vehicle for providing breaking geopolitical news. To complete the STRATFOR service, we publish an ongoing series of geopolitical monographs and assessments which offer rigorous forecasts of future world developments. The STRATFOR Difference STRATFOR members quickly come to realize the difference between intelligence and journalism. We are not the purveyors of gossip or trivia. We never forget the need to explain why any event or issue has significance and we use global intelligence not quotes. STRATFOR also provides corporate and institutional memberships for multi-users. Our intelligence professionals provide Executive Briefings for corporate events and board of directors meetings and routinely appear as speakers at conferences. For more information on corporate or institutional services please contact [email protected] 5 © 2010 STRATFOR 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900 Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com .
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