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INITIATING COVERAGE REPORT William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund November 30, 2018 Daniel Pearson – Lead Analyst [email protected] | (484) 888-4552 Brendan Young – Associate Analyst [email protected] | (610) 620-3312 Comcast Corp. Andrew Connelly – Associate Analyst Exchange: NASDAQ | Ticker: CMCSA | Target Price: ~$45 [email protected] | (610) 308-5588 COMPANY OVERVIEW Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) is a global media, Key Statistics (in M, except per share data) entertainment, and communications conglomerate Share Price $39.01 52-Week Low $30.43 headquartered in Philadelphia, PA. The company is the second- Exp. Return ~17% 52-Week High $44.00 largest broadcasting and cable television company in the world by revenue. It is also the largest pay-TV, cable TV, and Internet Shares O/S 4,540 Div. Yield 1.98% Enterprise provider in the United States. CMCSA engages in the provision Market Cap $174,520 $238,926 Value of video, internet, and phone services through its two primary businesses, Comcast Cable and NBCUniversal. CMCSA breaks One-Year Price Graph: down operations into six reportable segments, including Cable Communications (~62% of FY’17 revenue), Cable Networks $45 100 M (~12%), Broadcast Television (~11%), Filmed Entertainment (~9%), Theme Parks (~5%), and Corporate & Other (~1%). $40 75 M The company will report 4Q’18 and FY’18 results before the $35 50 M opening bell on January 23, 2019. $30 25 M INVESTMENT THESIS CMCSA is currently trading at a 2-year LTM P/E multiple of $25 - 16.2x, representing a 12.1% discount to its median multiple of 18.4x. Despite consistently beating earnings the past four quarters with an average surprise of ~6.5%, the stock was unjustly discounted due to the acquisition process of Sky UK, Earnings (Adj.) / Revenue Surprise History one of Europe’s leading media and telecommunications Quarters EPS Revenue Δ Price companies. Investors were concerned about CMCSA paying 4Q17 4.48% 0.44% 1.30% too high of a premium as the company entered a fierce bidding 1Q18 5.26% 0.28% 2.73% war with 21st Century Fox over acquiring Sky’s assets. This drop in valuation was unwarranted as the premium CMCSA paid was 2Q18 7.97% (0.40%) 3.98% right in-line with similar media companies’ M&A deal premiums 3Q18 7.44% 1.38% 5.04% that companies like AT&T and DIS paid. Investors also overlooked the growth prospects of the deal as CMCSA now Earnings Projections (Adj.) has a massive foothold in Europe and almost doubled its direct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY customer relationships to ~52M. In addition to the concerns 2017A $0.53 $0.52 $0.50 $0.48 $2.06 over an escalated premium, CMCSA’s multiple contracted once the company’s CFO announced the acquisition of Sky would be 2018A 0.61 0.66 0.63 0.62 2.55 paid in cash and CMCSA would be taking out debt to finance 2019E 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 2.78 the deal. This was another overstated drop in valuation as 2020E 0.66 0.70 0.77 1.03 3.16 CMCSA has a strong balance sheet and is generating significant Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, CapIQ COMMUNICATION SERVICES: MEDIA EBITDA growth which is creating FCF that will be able to pay down the debt. Given CMCSA’s growth opportunities from the The William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund does and seeks to do business acquisition of Sky, its focus on expanding broadband growth, with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be and outperformance by NBCUniversal, we believe CMCSA aware that the fund may have a conflict of interest that could affect the should be trading at its fair value multiple of 18.4x. We predict objectivity of this report. All prices are current as of the end of previous trading session from date on which report was issued. that the company will return to fair value of ~$45, representing a return of ~15%. Fall 2018 THE COMCAST BUSINESS Comcast Cable: Cable Communications (~62% of FY’17 revenue) Cable Communications encompasses all of CMCSA Cable operations and the segment operates under the XFINITY brand. Cable communications provides video (~44% of segment revenue), high-speed internet (~28%), voice (~7%), business services (~12%), advertising (~4%), and other (~5%). As of the end of FY’17, CMCSA has 29.3M total customer relationships, with ~27.2M being residential customers and ~2.2M being businesses without any single customer providing a large or significant portion of the segment’s revenue. Within video services, CMCSA offers access to a wide variety of video service packages that can include premium networks, pay-per-view, and On Demand services depending on the level of service the customer desires. CMCSA also provides, for an additional fee, HD and DVR advanced services that provide customers with a wider range of HD programming choices and the ability to record and store programs as well as pausing and rewinding them at any time. Video services also includes the set-top boxes CMCSA distributes under its X1 platform for its Internet Protocol (IP) and cloud-enabled video. This provides customers with a more comprehensive search that offers personalized search recommendations and access to all the popular third-party applications like Netflix and many others. Within the high-speed internet services, CMCSA offers downstream speeds that range up to two gigabits per second. CMCSA also provides wireless gateways that combine the wireless router, cable modem, and voice adapter to improve the performance of multiple IP-enabled devices being used at the same time. The wireless gateways create a Wi-Fi network that provides faster speeds whether inside, or outside using a hotspot. CMCSA offers its voice services using interconnected Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) technology. This technology does not require a landline and is much more cost effective for businesses, however it does require internet access. The voice services provide both unlimited and usage-based plans that can be local and domestic long distance with or without an option for international calling plans. As of the end of FY’17, ~20% of homes and businesses within areas CMCSA serves were subscribed to the voice services. Within business services, CMCSA primarily provides high-speed internet services and voice and video services, but also includes cloud-based solutions. CMCSA also provides Ethernet network services that offer higher speeds to medium and larger sized businesses as well as more advanced voice services. CMCSA also provides businesses with wireless backhaul to help manage network bandwidth. In other words, wireless backhaul is provides an alternative route when the normal route is unavailable or overworked so businesses can continue operations. In terms of advertising, CMCSA receives a portion of scheduled advertising time as part of distribution agreements made with cable networks. CMCSA sells this time through its advertising sales force to local, regional, and national advertisers. Other mainly includes revenue generated via security and automation services, cable franchise, and regulatory fees. The cable franchise and other regulatory fees are paid by CMCSA, however the company passed through the cost to its customer base. Communication Services: Media Page 2 Fall 2018 NBCUniversal Cable Networks (~12% of FY’17 Revenue) The cable networks consist of a portfolio with a wide variety of national cable networks that mainly include news, sports, and entertainment content. Cable networks also includes regional sports and news networks, international cable networks, cable television studio production, and some digital properties which mainly consist of branded websites. Cable news and information networks include MSNBC, CNBC, and CNBC World. Entertainment networks include USA Network, Bravo, Syfy, and E! to name a few. Sports networks include NBC Sports Network, Golf Channel, and Olympic Channel. CMCSA markets and distributes its cable networks programming in the U.S. and internationally to multichannel video providers, virtual providers, and subscription video on demand service providers. To better understand what these are, examples of each would be Service Electric, Sling, and Netflix respectively. CMCSA’s cable networks provide their own programs or acquire rights to programming from third parties, including mainly sports programming rights. Broadcast Television (~11% of FY’17 Revenue) Broadcast television consists of the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks and also includes NBC and Telemundo local broadcast television stations, NBC Universo national cable network, broadcast television studio production operations, and a variety of digital properties. NBC Network distributes entertainment, news, and sports to nearly every household in the U.S. NBC Network also has valuable sports programming commitments, including the U.S. broadcast rights for the Olympic Games through 2032, Thursday Night Football through the 2018 season, Sunday Night Football through the 2023 season, and the 2018 and 2021 Super Bowl games. Telemundo is a Hispanic media company that, as of FY’17, owns 18 local broadcast television stations that reach ~60% of U.S. Hispanic television households. Telemundo develops orignal programming and also acquires the rights to programming from third parties and features original dramas, movies, news, and sports events. Filmed Entertainment (~9% of FY’17 Revenue) Filmed entertainment primarily produces, acquires, markets, and distributes content worldwide, but also produces live stage plays, distributes filmed entertainment produced by third parties, sells consumer products, and earns revenue via Fandango, a movie ticketing and entertainment service. Filmed entertainment is mainly produced under Universal Pictures, Illumination, and DreamWorks Animation. CMCSA’s produced and acquired content is primarily theatrical films that are distributed for exhibition at movie theaters, but also includes direct-to-video content and CMCSA’s film library. Theme Parks (~5% of FY’17 Revenue) Within the theme parks space, CMCSA owns and operates the Universal theme parks with the main parks being located in Orlando, Florida and Hollywood, California.
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