An Independent Review of the Economic Requirement for Trained Seafarers in the UK Final Report to Dft and Review Panel
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An independent review of the economic requirement for trained seafarers in the UK Final Report to DfT and Review Panel December 2011 Contents Glossary of key terms............................................................................................................................... 4 1 Executive summary..................................................................................................................... 6 2 Introduction............................................................................................................................. 18 2.1 Background.......................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Project Scope....................................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Purpose of this document ..................................................................................................... 18 2.4 Structure of this document ................................................................................................... 19 2.5 Stakeholders........................................................................................................................ 19 3 Methodology............................................................................................................................ 21 3.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 21 3.2 Preparatory Stage ................................................................................................................ 21 3.3 Stage 1: Initial Consultations and Study Design ....................................................................... 21 3.4 Stage 2 – Primary Data Collection .......................................................................................... 21 3.5 Stage 3: Economic Modelling................................................................................................. 22 3.6 Stage 4 – Synthesis ............................................................................................................... 22 4 Review context......................................................................................................................... 23 4.1 The UK Maritime Sector........................................................................................................ 23 4.2 Seafarers and ex‐seafarers .................................................................................................... 26 4.3 Seafarer training .................................................................................................................. 28 4.4 Support for seafarer training in the UK................................................................................... 31 4.5 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 35 5 Key themes emerging from the literature review ........................................................................ 37 5.1 Context ............................................................................................................................... 37 5.2 The decline in the number of UK seafarers ............................................................................. 38 5.3 The relative attractiveness of onshore work to offshore work.................................................. 41 5.4 The case for trained seafarers from developed markets .......................................................... 42 5.5 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 42 6 International comparison .......................................................................................................... 44 6.1 Comparisons with traditional European rivals......................................................................... 44 6.2 Comparison with emerging rivals........................................................................................... 47 6.3 Experience of historic rivals................................................................................................... 50 6.4 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 51 7 Stakeholder Consultation .......................................................................................................... 52 7.1 The UK maritime sector ........................................................................................................ 53 7.2 Demand and supply of seafarers and ex‐seafarers .................................................................. 53 7.3 Experiences of SMarT and other training schemes .................................................................. 56 7.4 The case for having UK seafarers and ex‐seafarers over other nationalities............................... 60 7.5 Alternatives to SMarT........................................................................................................... 61 7.6 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 62 8 Seafarer demand and supply forecasts ....................................................................................... 63 8.1 Recent trends and the starting point for demand and supply................................................... 63 2 8.2 Demand in the shipping sector over the decade ahead............................................................ 64 8.3 Seafarer supply and the shipping industry “skills gap” ............................................................. 67 8.4 Ex‐seafarers across the wider UK maritime sector................................................................... 67 8.5 Overview of supply and demand: central forecast................................................................... 69 8.6 Alternative demand and supply assumptions.......................................................................... 70 8.7 The potential role for foreign seafarers.................................................................................. 74 8.8 Assuming SMarT discontinuation........................................................................................... 75 8.9 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 75 9 The rationale for continued support for seafarer training in the UK .............................................. 77 9.1 The original rationale for the policy intervention .................................................................... 77 9.2 Was the policy intervention effective? ................................................................................... 80 9.3 Is there a continuing rationale for policy intervention?............................................................ 82 9.4 Comparison from other sectors ............................................................................................. 84 9.5 Criteria for assessing alternatives .......................................................................................... 88 9.6 Conclusion........................................................................................................................... 89 10 Recommendations.................................................................................................................... 90 10.1 Options ............................................................................................................................... 90 10.2 Long‐list Option evaluation ................................................................................................... 94 10.3 Options Analysis................................................................................................................... 98 10.4 Conclusion and next steps................................................................................................... 101 Annexe A ‐ Bibliography ....................................................................................................................... 103 Annexe B – Detail of the demand and supply forecasts........................................................................... 104 12.1 Estimating UK shipping industry employment in the recent past ............................................ 104 12.2 Estimating the starting point for demand and supply projections........................................... 106 12.3 Projecting demand over the coming decade......................................................................... 107 12.4 Adding non‐UK supply to arrive at the shipping industry “skills gap”....................................... 113 12.5 Employment of ex‐seafarers across the wider UK maritime sector ......................................... 114 12.6 Projecting demand and supply for ex‐seafarers through to 2021............................................ 116 12.7 Overview of supply and demand: central forecast................................................................. 118 3 Glossary of key terms Additionality The extent to which new economic activity (measured as jobs, income and production) adds to existing economic activity rather than replaces it. Cadets A trainee officer. This report uses the term “cadet” and “trainee”