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Affordable Luxury Resort Residences for the Baby Boomers Affordable Luxury Resort Residences for The Baby Boomers by Mark Valdez Boyer Bachelor of Science, Civil Engineering Colorado State University - 1996 Submitted to the Department of Urban Planning and Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2005 ©2005 Mark Valdez Boyer. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of Author ___________________________________________________________________ Department of Urban Planning and Studies August 5, 2005 Certified by__________________________________________________________________________ John Kennedy Lecturer, Center for Real Estate Thesis Supervisor Accepted by_________________________________________________________________________ David M. Geltner Chairman, Interdepartmental Degree Program in Real Estate Development Affordable Luxury Resort Residences for The Baby Boomers by Mark Valdez Boyer Submitted to the Department of Urban Planning and Studies on August 5, 2005 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to determine the business viability of Oasis Destination Club, the first destination club designed entirely for the upper middle income baby boomer. The baby boomer generation is the largest demographic group in the United States, numbering 78 million individuals, between the ages of 41 and 59. As this demographic group ages and nears retirement they are seeking out ways to spend their vacation time. Many are considering vacation housing products; however, there are several key issues surrounding vacation home ownership that are not addressed by the current vacation housing products. These key issues include: 1) overall cost, 2) lack of variety in destinations, 3) illiquidity of investment, 4) inflexible use models, and 5) lack of services. To address these key issues destination clubs were developed. Club members are granted use rights in a portfolio of residences located in different destinations around the world. Each residence is large enough to accommodate a family or group and services are on a par with a well run hotel. In recent years destination clubs have experienced very strong growth in the upper income or high net worth market. Oasis Destination Club plans to be the first destination to target the upper middle income market, while also addressing the five key issues of vacation home ownership, thereby, becoming the premier brand name in the upper middle income market. In simple comparison terms Oasis Destination Club plans to become the Marriot in an industry where only the Ritz Carlton and Four Seasons exist. The market study indicated that an Oasis Destination Club has a potential market size between 35,000 and 70,000 households. This market has a price point of $75,000 with annual dues between $15,000 and $8,500. For these fees Oasis Destination Club plans to provide use rights in a portfolio of $1,000,000 residences around the world, which are large enough to accommodate family and group vacationing. Consistent service that removes the hassle and worry from second home ownership or villa/hotel rental would also be provided. Financial projections for Oasis Destination Club indicate that the business would break even in the second year and would require $1.7 million of start up funding at the company level with an additional $2 million in TIC 1031 backed funding to purchase the initial property portfolio. 2 Acknowledgements: I would like to extend my sincere thanks to John Kennedy for agreeing take time from his schedule to advise me on development of this thesis. His insight and advice was invaluable. I own a great debit of gratitude to each of my readers: • Doug Poutasse of AEW Capital Management for his clear, pointed advice throughout the development of the market analysis and marketability study. • Bob Cohen for his keen insight into every aspect of developing the business model. This thesis would not have been possible without his assistance. • Michael Schlesinger for requiring me to think through each idea presented and for spending countless hours trying to make my writing readable. To my extended family for all their love, support and advice over the last year To Team 10-485 for showing up every day to provide the laugher and witty banter that made the long days bearable. To my daughter for her smile every day, I love you and daddy is coming home. Lastly, a deep and heart felt thanks to my wife, Sarah, for all her support, understanding and love during the last year at MIT. You held our family together and managed to give birth to our lovely daughter in the middle of it all. So thank you again from the bottom of my heart. 3 Table of Contents Page Business Description --------------------------------------- 6 Market Analysis --------------------------------------- 8 Marketability Study --------------------------------------- 26 Product Development --------------------------------------- 37 Business Strategy --------------------------------------- 48 Competitive Advantage --------------------------------------- 59 Financial Projections --------------------------------------- 67 Milestones --------------------------------------- 74 Financing --------------------------------------- 77 Exit Strategy --------------------------------------- 83 Appendix A --------------------------------------- 85 Appendix B --------------------------------------- 123 4 Table of Figures and Tables Page Figure 1 (Baby Boomers Reaching Retirement) 9 Figure 2 (Baby Boomer Median Incomes) 10 Figure 3 (Married Baby Boomer Incomes) 11 Figure 4 (Percentage Change in Net Worth) 12 Table 1 (Income Brackets) 14 Figure 5 (Income Brackets) 14 Table 2 (Net Worth Brackets) 15 Table 3 (Retirement Income Requirements) 18 Table 4 (Results of Retirement Model Trails) 21 Table 5 (Discretionary Retirement Funds) 23 Table 6 (Portfolio Breakdown) 30 Table 7 (Portfolio Check) 31 Table 8 (Use Model) 39 Table 9 (Destinations) 44 Table 10 (Membership Plan) 50 Table 11 (2nd Home Comparison) 51 Table 12 (Hotel/Villa Comparison) 52 Tables 13, 14, & 15 (Competition Matrix) 66 Table 16 (5 yr P&L Continuous Growth) 72 Table 17 (5yr P&L Growth Halted) 71 Figure 6 (ODC Revenue and Profit) 71 Figure 7 (ODC Revenue and Profit) 72 Table 18 (Asset Analysis) 73 Table 19 (Lease Assumptions) 78 Table 20 (2 yr P&L Break Even) 81 5 Business Description: Oasis Destination Club’s (ODC) mission is to provide consistent, unique vacation experiences that are appropriate for the whole family at an affordable price. To this end ODC is being developed as an affordable alternative to second home ownership for the upper middle income baby boomer. There are 78 million baby boomers in the United States between the ages of 41 and 59 who are preparing for retirement; in part by looking for ways to spend their vacation time. Many are considering the purchase of a second vacation home; however, they are discovering several key issues with owning such a home. These issues include: 1) overall costs of an appropriate home (both initial costs and annual upkeep), 2) a lack of variety in destinations, 3) the illiquidity of the investment, 4) inflexible use models and 5) a lack of services. To address these issues destination clubs were developed. For a one time partially refundable membership fee and annual dues members are provided guaranteed use rights in a portfolio of residences that are in appropriate destinations around the world, the residences are large enough to accommodate family and group vacationing, and services are on a par with a well run hotel. In recent years destination clubs have experienced very strong growth in the upper income or high net worth market. ODC plans to be the first destination club to target the upper middle income market, while addressing each of the five key issues of vacation home ownership, thereby, becoming the premier brand name in this market. In simple comparison terms ODC plans to become the Marriot in an industry where only the Ritz Carlton and Four Seasons exist. In order to become the premier destination club for upper middle income baby boomer ODC intends to set its membership fees at $75,000, less than half the amount most high-end 6 destinations clubs charge, with annual dues between $8,500 and $15,000, which are within the affordability range for the upper middle income baby boomer. For these fees members will receive between three and six weeks of use (depending on the plan) in a portfolio of $1 million residences that are well located in both “up & coming” and established destinations around the world. ODC services are designed to remove all the hassle and worry from owning a second home or renting a villa while enhancing the experience of each member’s vacation. ODC’s mission is to provide consistent, unique experiences that are appropriate for the whole family at an affordable price. 7 Market Analysis: Oasis Destination Club (ODC) will be a destination club that caters to the “upper middle income” baby boomer. In order to analyze the “upper middle income” baby boomer market, several steps will be taken. First the baby boomer in general will be defined such that a baseline or profile can be established. Second the “upper middle income” baby boomer will be defined as a sub
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