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CITY OF BROCKVILLE COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY Prepared For: THE CITY OF BROCKVILLE Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. DIVISION OF THE COOPERS & LYBRAND CONSULTING GROUP CITY OF BROCKVILLE COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY Prepared For THE CITY OF BROCKVILLE October 29, 1990 North York City Centre telephone (416) 224-2140 I 5160 Yonge Street telex 06-23590 Larri Srriith I Suite 1200 fax (416) 224-2356 I & Associates Ltd. Toronto - North York, Ontario Canada M2N 6L3 I OF THE COOPERS & LYBRAND CONSULTING GROUP DIVISION I North York City Centre telephone (416> 224-2140 L S thI 5160 Yonge Street telex 06-23590 Suite 1200 fax (416) 224-2356 & Associates Ltd Toronto - North York, Ontario Canada M2N 6L3 DIVISION OF THE COOPERS & LYBRAND CONSULTING GROUP 15 November 1990 Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick, MCIP Director of Planning Corporation of the City of Brockville 1 King Street West Brockville, Ontario K6V 3P5 Dear Mr. Fitzpatrick: RE: CiTY OF BROCKVILLE COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY We are pleased to submit this comprehensive analysis of the Brockville market for selected retail, service and office space facilities. The methodology employed in this report has been designed to meet three primary objectives, including: 1. Evaluate the current Brockville market for selected retail, service and office functions. 2. Forecast the additional space requirements for these categories in the City over the next twenty years, and 3. Provide suggestions for appropriate changes to the Official Plan and Zoning By Law given the findings of this market research. Our study methodology has employed extensive consumer research as well as statistical evaluations and a detailed review of the competitive environment in the Brockville area. The residual method of study utilized for the retail and service categories specifically recognizes the current sales support levels captured by existing businesses in the City of Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick 15 November 1990 Page 2 Brockville. The determination of warranted additional space in the future assumes that the existing retail/service structure will remain healthy and achieve sales performance levels which are consistent with existing levels. Through this approach, we are able to provide the City with the necessary market based research to consider individual proposals for new commercial development as well as formulate appropriate commercial land use policy for the future. For the office space group, we have again undertaken an evaluation of the current market place operating in Brockville. Given the present market situation as well as reasonable expectations for future economic growth in the City, we have forecast warranted additional office space levels for the City. The findings of this analysis indicate that approximaely 500,000 square feet of additional commercial space as defined in this report could be supported in Brockville over the next twenty years. This conclusion is of course, subject to the assumptions and forecasts detailed at the appropriate points in the report. A portion of this space will be suitable for the Downtown Area, thereby reinforcing the continued health and well being of this important social and business focal point in the community. However, a substantial amount of the new space will also be appropriately located in suburban areas of the City. In order to accommodate the warranted additional space identified in this analysis, adjustments to current Official Plan Policy for commercial uses is recommended. Our suggested options for changes to this Policy are provided in the conclusion section of the report. It has been a pleasure to conduct this major market assessment for the City of Brockville. The variety of issues that have arisen during the course of this assignment have been most challenging and we feel that our findings and recommendations will be Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick 15 November 1990 Page 3 invaluable to the City in its’ pursuit of appropriate future policy initiatives. We look forward to discussing our findings and being of further assistance to the City in the near future. Yours very truly, LARRY SMITH & ASSOCIATES LTD. J. Kevin Donahue Vice President JKD/cld TABLE OF CONTENTS. Introduction 1 Executive Summary 5 Section 1: The City of Brockville 14 Section 2: The Trade Area 18 Section 3: The Trade Area Population 21 Section 4: Per Capita Income and DSTM Expenditure Potential.. 25 Section 5: Department Store Analysis 30 Section 6: Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis 37 Section 7: Other Store Type Analysis 53 Section 8: Office Space Demand Analysis 68 Section 9: Assessment of Future Commercial Land Requirements and Conclusions 75 Appendix A: Inventory of Competitive Retail/Service Space in the Trade Area 93 Appendix B: Trade Area Consumer Survey and Licence Plate Survey. 109 Appendix C: Real Growth in Expenditure 1981 to 1989 125 Appendix D: Definition of Terms 130 Appendix E: Retail/Service Store Classification by Type 135 Appendix F: Inventory of Brockville Major Office Space 136 Appendix G: City of Brockvifle Official Plan and Zoning By-Law Commercial Policies 144 Introduction This Commercial Land Use Study has been prepared for the City of Brockville, and is dated the twenty-ninth day of October, 1990. It contains an examination of the warranted additional space for selected retail and service facilities as well as office space in the City of Brockvifle over the next twenty years. A general review of the existing commercial land inventory as well as the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law sections related to the provision of commercial land has also been undertaken. Finally, valuable background information assembled from written submissions and verbal comments by Brockville residents and persons or groups with an interest in future commercial land development and Official Plan policy in the City has been recognized in this report. A summary of the submissions and comments has been prepared under a separate document. The primary objectives of this report are outlined in the three points that follow: 1. Evaluate selected retail, service and office functions and facilities which currently exist in Brockville. 2. Determine in a general fashion, the additional requirements for retail and office facilities in the City for a period extending over the next 20 years. 3. Suggest possible changes to commercial sections of the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law given future commercial space requirements as determined by Item 2. The preparation of this report will provide the City with important background information concerning the Brockville retail and office marketplace, and therefore assist the City in the formulation of appropriate planning policy for the future. Given the general planning nature of this report, our evaluation of future market penetration levels by Brockville retail and office facilities reflect reasonable market capture objectives for a commercial centre of this type. These objectives recognize the 1 competitive environment in which Brockville facilities are found and our experience in the evaluation of retail and office markets. We have not evaluated specific proposals for new development planned in Brockville, nor have we evaluated the sales transfers or economic implications of those proposals on the existing commercial base. The success or failure of those projects will depend on the market potential for specific store categories as considered in this report; other proposals for competitive space; the capabilities and experience of the specific developer in the construction of commercial projects; tenants secured for the project; the quality and theme of the development; visual exposure and accessibility of the site; and a number of other factors. Our conclusions for the retail sector assume that new development in the future will provide facilities which will do much more than simply duplicate existing facilities and dilute the existing expenditure support base. Instead, the new projects must increase market penetration levels, particularly in the rural hinterland of Brockville, and address market opportunities which are presently served by operators located outside Brockville. In this way, significant levels of “outflow” expenditures can be retained by Brockville merchants. Furthermore, existing merchants are assumed to continue efforts to evolve with the market and react in a proactive manner to new competition. Our findings should be utilized as a benchmark only, against which planning can be undertaken, since we cannot anticipate the specific forms of development that may be developed in Brockville over the future. It is also important to note that under the Terms of Reference for this report, we have not considered all forms of development that are permitted on commercial lands in Brockville. For instance, automotive, home improvement, wholesale and hotel developments, to name a few, are not evaluated in this report. Hence, additional demands for commercial land will undoubtedly evolve in the City over the future. A residual method of study has been utilized in this report for the retail/service groups, so that the sales support for existing facilities is specifically recognized. Furthermore, 2 empirical research, i.e. a licence plate survey and program of telephone interviews with market area consumers, has been conducted to firmly establish the existing shopping habits and characteristics of the local support base for Brockville commercial facilities. This data was used in conjunction with our research into future population, income and expenditure levels, to determine
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