CITY OF BROCKVILLE
COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY
Prepared For: THE CITY OF BROCKVILLE
Larry Smith &Associates Ltd.
DIVISION OF THE COOPERS & LYBRAND CONSULTING GROUP
CITY OF BROCKVILLE
COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY
Prepared For
THE CITY OF BROCKVILLE
October 29, 1990
North York City Centre I telephone (416) 224-2140
LarriSrriith 5160 Yonge Street I telex 06-23590
Suite 1200 I fax (416) 224-2356 &AssociatesLtd. Toronto - North York, Ontario
Canada M2N 6L3 I
DIVISIONOF THE COOPERS & LYBRANDCONSULTING GROUP I
North York City Centre telephone (416>224-2140 L S thI 5160 Yonge Street telex 06-23590 Ltd Suite 1200 fax (416) 224-2356 &Associates Toronto - North York, Ontario Canada M2N 6L3 DIVISIONOF THE COOPERS &LYBRANDCONSULTINGGROUP
15 November 1990
Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick, MCIP Director of Planning Corporation of the City of Brockville 1 King Street West Brockville, Ontario K6V 3P5
Dear Mr. Fitzpatrick:
RE: CiTY OF BROCKVILLE COMMERCIAL LAND USE STUDY
We are pleased to submit this comprehensive analysis of the Brockville market for selected retail, service and office space facilities. The methodology employed in this report has been designed to meet three primary objectives, including:
1. Evaluate the current Brockville market for selected retail, service and office functions.
2. Forecast the additional space requirements for these categories in the City over the next twenty years, and
3. Provide suggestions for appropriate changes to the Official Plan and Zoning By Law given the findings of this market research.
Our study methodology has employed extensive consumer research as well as statistical evaluations and a detailed review of the competitive environment in the Brockville area. The residual method of study utilized for the retail and service categories specifically recognizes the current sales support levels captured by existing businesses in the City of
Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick 15 November 1990 Page 2
Brockville. The determination of warranted additional space in the future assumes that the existing retail/service structure will remain healthy and achieve sales performance levels which are consistent with existing levels. Through this approach, we are able to provide the City with the necessary market based research to consider individual proposals for new commercial development as well as formulate appropriate commercial land use policy for the future.
For the office space group, we have again undertaken an evaluation of the current market place operating in Brockville. Given the present market situation as well as reasonable expectations for future economic growth in the City, we have forecast warranted additional office space levels for the City.
The findings of this analysis indicate that approximaely 500,000 square feet of additional commercial space as defined in this report could be supported in Brockville over the next twenty years. This conclusion is of course, subject to the assumptions and forecasts detailed at the appropriate points in the report. A portion of this space will be suitable for the Downtown Area, thereby reinforcing the continued health and well being of this important social and business focal point in the community. However, a substantial amount of the new space will also be appropriately located in suburban areas of the City.
In order to accommodate the warranted additional space identified in this analysis, adjustments to current Official Plan Policy for commercial uses is recommended. Our suggested options for changes to this Policy are provided in the conclusion section of the report.
It has been a pleasure to conduct this major market assessment for the City of Brockville. The variety of issues that have arisen during the course of this assignment have been most challenging and we feel that our findings and recommendations will be
Mr. Travers E. Fitzpatrick 15 November 1990 Page 3
invaluable to the City in its’ pursuit of appropriate future policy initiatives. We look forward to discussing our findings and being of further assistance to the City in the near future.
Yours very truly,
LARRY SMITH & ASSOCIATES LTD.
J. Kevin Donahue Vice President
JKD/cld
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 1
Executive Summary 5 Section 1: The City of Brockville 14 Section 2: The Trade Area 18 Section 3: The Trade Area Population 21 Section 4: Per Capita Income and DSTM Expenditure Potential.. 25 Section 5: Department Store Analysis 30 Section 6: Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis 37 Section 7: Other Store Type Analysis 53 Section 8: Office Space Demand Analysis 68 Section 9: Assessment of Future Commercial Land Requirements and. Conclusions 75
Appendix A: Inventory of Competitive Retail/Service Space in the Trade Area 93
Appendix B: Trade Area Consumer Survey and Licence Plate Survey. 109
Appendix C: Real Growth in Expenditure 1981 to 1989 125
Appendix D: Definition of Terms 130
Appendix E: Retail/Service Store Classification by Type 135
Appendix F: Inventory of Brockville Major Office Space 136
Appendix G: City of Brockvifle Official Plan and Zoning By-Law Commercial Policies 144
Introduction
This Commercial Land Use Study has been prepared for the City of Brockville, and is dated the twenty-ninth day of October, 1990. It contains an examination of the warranted additional space for selected retail and service facilities as well as office space in the City of Brockvifle over the next twenty years. A general review of the existing commercial land inventory as well as the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law sections related to the provision of commercial land has also been undertaken. Finally, valuable background information assembled from written submissions and verbal comments by Brockville residents and persons or groups with an interest in future commercial land development and Official Plan policy in the City has been recognized in this report. A summary of the submissions and comments has been prepared under a separate document.
The primary objectives of this report are outlined in the three points that follow:
1. Evaluate selected retail, service and office functions and facilities which currently exist in Brockville.
2. Determine in a general fashion, the additional requirements for retail and office facilities in the City for a period extending over the next 20 years.
3. Suggest possible changes to commercial sections of the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law given future commercial space requirements as determined by Item 2.
The preparation of this report will provide the City with important background information concerning the Brockville retail and office marketplace, and therefore assist the City in the formulation of appropriate planning policy for the future.
Given the general planning nature of this report, our evaluation of future market penetration levels by Brockville retail and office facilities reflect reasonable market capture objectives for a commercial centre of this type. These objectives recognize the
1 competitive environment in which Brockville facilities are found and our experience in the evaluation of retail and office markets.
We have not evaluated specific proposals for new development planned in Brockville, nor have we evaluated the sales transfers or economic implications of those proposals on the existing commercial base. The success or failure of those projects will depend on the market potential for specific store categories as considered in this report; other proposals for competitive space; the capabilities and experience of the specific developer in the construction of commercial projects; tenants secured for the project; the quality and theme of the development; visual exposure and accessibility of the site; and a number of other factors.
Our conclusions for the retail sector assume that new development in the future will provide facilities which will do much more than simply duplicate existing facilities and dilute the existing expenditure support base. Instead, the new projects must increase market penetration levels, particularly in the rural hinterland of Brockville, and address market opportunities which are presently served by operators located outside Brockville. In this way, significant levels of “outflow” expenditures can be retained by Brockville merchants. Furthermore, existing merchants are assumed to continue efforts to evolve with the market and react in a proactive manner to new competition. Our findings should be utilized as a benchmark only, against which planning can be undertaken, since we cannot anticipate the specific forms of development that may be developed in Brockville over the future.
It is also important to note that under the Terms of Reference for this report, we have not considered all forms of development that are permitted on commercial lands in Brockville. For instance, automotive, home improvement, wholesale and hotel developments, to name a few, are not evaluated in this report. Hence, additional demands for commercial land will undoubtedly evolve in the City over the future.
A residual method of study has been utilized in this report for the retail/service groups, so that the sales support for existing facilities is specifically recognized. Furthermore,
2 empirical research, i.e. a licence plate survey and program of telephone interviews with market area consumers, has been conducted to firmly establish the existing shopping habits and characteristics of the local support base for Brockville commercial facilities. This data was used in conjunction with our research into future population, income and expenditure levels, to determine future retail/service space requirements. With respect to the office market component, we have considered future demographic and economic growth prospects for Brockville, as well as examined past trends in the market.
The detailed statistical background material contained in this report is based on federal, provincial, regional, and local statistics which have been published, as well as our extensive field investigations. The methods used in evaluating the market demand for each of the study components are similar to those utilized in other analyses which this company has undertaken in the past. These methods employ both quantitative as well as qualitative evaluations, and have proven reliable in numerous previous research studies of this type.
Major Assumptions
In any study requiring estimates of future conditions, it is necessary to make certain specific assumptions. These have been stated at the appropriate place in the following text. In addition, there are a number of underlying and basic assumptions upon which the validity of the findings and recommendations presented in this report depend. These have been stated below.
A. For the period covered in this analysis, a reasonable degree of economic stability will prevail in Canada, the Province of Ontario, and specifically the Brockville market area. Although we recognize that the Canadian and Provincial economies are currently in a recessionary period, we assume that neither the magnitude or duration of this economic downturn will materially influence the mid and long term market forecasts contained in this report.
3
B. The historic data used in this analysis for population as well as income and expenditures, have been obtained from Statistics Canada publications and are considered accurate for the purposes of this study.
C. The estimates of future population are important elements of this analysis. They are based on an evaluation of historic trends, discussions with local planning staff, available statistics used for other general infrastructure planning, and our evaluation of the local market area.
D. For the retail analysis, all references to the Canadian dollar, dealing with present or future periods, reflect its 1990 value. We recognize that fluctuations in the absolute value and purchasing power of the dollar will probably occur during the period covered in this report. However, we assume that the relationship between per capita income and expenditure levels, the value of the dollar and store operating levels, will remain more or less constant during the period analyzed. Since this report deals with future space additions, inflation can be disregarded because it does not influence the physical space used in retail facilities.
If major changes should occur which influence the basic assumptions stated above, then the recommendations contained in this report should be reviewed in light of such changed conditions, and revised, if necessary.
4
A)1VWYIQSBALLIXflX3
. I : I • I 3 • — -3 •1 ‘ I-t 0
4 0 B
Executive Summary
The following analysis comprises a substantial amount of statistical data from a variety of sources including extensive empirical research conducted by this firm. Many observations and conclusions are discussed in the report, but only the most critical of these have been highlighted in this summary. The main body of the report should be consulted wherever further details or explanations are required.
The primary objectives of this report include a review of the existing market place in Brockville for selected retail/service facilities as well as office accommodation. Furthermore, future space requirements in Brockville for the same three categories are forecast to the year 2010. Finally, a review of the existing Official Plan and Zoning Bylaw Sections related to commercial development, has been undertaken and appropriate changes to these documents, given the forecast warranted space, have been discussed. The following paragraphs highlight our major analysis findings and conclusions.
Retail and Service Space Analysis
A trade area representing the geographic area from which Brockville retail and service facilities capture the bulk of their sales support has been defined for this analysis. It recognizes our evaluation of existing competitive facilities in the City as well as our knowledge of the regional market environment in which Brockville facilities find themselves. Furthermore, we have undertaken a licence plate survey at the three major retail concentrations in Brockville, i.e., the Downtown area, 1000 Islands Mall, Brockville Shopping Centre, to determine the area from which regular shopping support is derived by facilities at these locations. In total, the trade area extends for over 32 kilometres northwest into rural areas, 35 kilometres east to the edge of Leeds and Grenville County and 31 kilometres to the west. We have also divided the trade area between two zones in order to recognize the demographic, income and expenditure characteristics of Brockville residents versus inhabitants of outlying rural areas.
5
Historic population levels have been reviewed for this analysis and forecasts made for selected future years of the study period. At this time, approximately 22,000 persons reside in Brockville (Primary Zone) and another 34,200 persons in outlying rural areas for a total trade area population of 56,200 persons. Our forecasts indicate that future increases will occur at rates which are similar to historic trends. Over the long term, a population of 63,000 persons is projected for the trade area by the year 2010.
A detailed inventory of Brockville retail and service facilities has been conducted for this report. A total of 1.2 million square feet of space was identified throughout the City with major concentrations being located in the Downtown area, 1000 Islands Mall and the Parkedale/Stewart Boulevard area as well as Brockville Shopping Centre. It is noteworthy that the overall vacancy rate in the City was found to be 5.2% of total space. It is our experience that vacancy levels in the order of 5% to 6% typically represent a relatively healthy and balanced retail/service market.
Income and expenditure characteristics of study area residents have been determined for the current and future years in this analysis. During 1990,the average per capita income for trade area residents was estimated at $22,320 or approximately 11.4% below the average provincial level. Expenditure levels for each of the store categories evaluated in this analysis, eg) DSTM facilities, food stores and eating/drinking facilities have also been determined for analysis. They reflect the income characteristics identified for the trade area.
In order to recognize the distribution of the identified expenditure potential between various retail concentrations both within and outside the trade area, a telephone consumer survey has been undertaken for this analysis. This survey comprised a detailed investigation of expenditure habits for a representative sampling of trade area consumers. Its findings have been used to evaluate the current support for Brockville retail facifities as well as measure the level of expenditures by local inhabitants made outside the City including outflow expenditures travelling to other major urban areas such as Ottawa, Kingston and Cornwall. In general, we have found that significant levels of expenditure potential for Secondary Zone residents are lost to major retail facilities outside the trade
6 ______
CiTY OF BROCKVILLE SUMMARY OF WARRANTED ADDITIONAL COMMERCIAL SPACE
Category 1995 2000 2005 2010 DSTM Department Store 18,000 32,000 46,000 59,000 General Merchandise 5,000 7,000 10,000 13,000 Apparel! Accessories 13,000 20,000 27,000 32,000 Household Furnishings 36,000 45,000 54,000 65,000 Drugs/Cosmetics 3,000 6,000 9,000 13,000 Other Specialty DSTM 11.000 18.000 23.000 30,000 ‘ibtal DSTM 86,000 128,000 169,000 212,000
Food Stores Supermarket 12,000 19,000 27,000 34,000 Specialty Food 12.000 15.000 ibtal Food 16,000 27,000 39,000 49,000
Services
Eating & Drinking 18,000 29,000 38,000 49,000 Financial Institutions 4,000 8,000 8,000 Personal Services 2. ‘ibtal Services 20,000 37,000 52,000 65,000 ‘ibtal Retail/Services 122.000 192,000 260.000 326,000 Office Space 18.000 65.000 113.000 163.000
ibtal Commercial Space 140.000 257,000 373.000 489,000
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd.
7 area. However, existing Brockville facilities generally achieve reasonable sales performance levels at this time.
Our determination of future levels of warranted additional retail and service space recognize the current levels of market capture achieved by Brockville facilities. Furthermore, the retail and service sector strength of major outlying urban areas has also been considered along with inflow expenditures that can be expected from non-trade area residents. The future levels of market support for various store categories in Brockville represent reasonable planning objectives for this market.
On the basis of the analysis, total additional retail/service facilities amounting to 326,000 square feet by the year 2010 have been estimated for the City. This space will include an additional discount or promotional department store in the long term, ie. during the latter portion of the study period. Furthermore, one or two additional supermarket tenants are also shown as being warranted over the forecast period. The facing schedule provides a summary of warranted space for each of the retail/service store categories evaluated in the report that follows, plus the office space group. Further discussion of the schedule may be found in Section 9.
It is noteworthy that the findings of this retail analysis are based on a residual study approach which recognizes the current sales levels of existing retail facilities in the City. We have generally not attempted to anticipate future sales transfer from existing stores caused by new retail facilities due to the planning nature of this analysis and uncertainties as to the type and amount of new retail space that may be built in Brockville over the future. Furthermore, the future warranted space is in large part subject to the ability of Brockville retailers, both existing and new operators, to effectively compete for additional market share levels, particularly with respect to expenditures of Secondary Zone residents. In this regard, future retail development should strive to provide new and interesting forms of retail tenants so that higher market penetration levels can be achieved.
8
of
commercial
of
accommodate The
suggest
over year
Potential
feet
evaluation
one
noteworthy
a
a
In
the
conducted
17.5%. trends A
factors
compared The
on
Office
balanced
significant
vacant
commercial
the
detailed
Highway
past
reason
of
combined
2010
the
evaluation
additional determination
in
Space
including
This
appropriate
long
20
Adjustments
Brockville
commercial
(refer
of
to
for
or
that
and
space.
years
analysis
vacancy
401,
level
the
other
Analysis
term
another
this
retaWservice
land
this
significant
healthy
of
to
the
historic
office
office
has
of
space,
report.
future
As
(2010)
the
markets
requirements
which
vacancy
local
rate
of
of
changes
land
amounted
may
to
part
accommodation
preceding
market,
additional
office
the
development
we
the
currently
economic
warranted
show
amounts
amounts
currently
not
Through
of
and
in
have
existing
is
Official
this
leasing
effectively
the
to
much
we
the
office
to
based
found schedule).
review,
the
warranted
Province.
have exists
approximately
average
of
makeup
to
available
this
office
Plan
higher
competitive
market,
trends
this
space
approximately
Official
will
on
it
determined
data,
in
compete
vacant
consideration necessary
and
our be
facilities
the
annual
than
of
identified
and
space
in
warranted
i.e. we
the
Zoning
City,
market
Plan
the
the
rates
space
inventory
9,800 have
approximately
City
in
rate
for
that
City. to
in
current
i.e.
the
500,000
and
as
typically
Bylaw
at
undertake
Brockville,
Brockville
demand
are
evaluated
of
square
estimated
has
local
in
approximately
being
this
office
found
Brockville
Zoning
service
been
of
time,
square
market
warranted
considered
feet
office
findings
space
7.5%.
in
historic
a
given
reflects
it
to
its’
level
preliminary
buildings
annually.
Bylaw
is
feet.
be
place.
by
strategic
space
completion
noteworthy
163,000
to
However,
approximately
for
the of
in development
a
to
the
In
office
which
warranted
number
Brockville
end
Given
represent
which
has
order
amount
location
review
square
of
space
been
over
that
it
will
our
the
for
to
of
is 9 At the current time, there is approximately 93.4 acres of land either zoned or designated in the Official Plan for some form of commercial use. This will include 7.5 acres on which construction is either underway or just recently completed. A relatively small portion of this space, i.e. 6.0 acres is situated in the Downtown area leaving over 87 acres distributed throughout the remainder of the City.
The Official Plan strives to be sympathetic to the economic health and physical up keep of the Downtown area given its historic function as a central place for business, social and cultural activity. For this reason, we have initially considered the portion of the warranted commercial space which could be reasonably accommodated in the Downtown area. Recognizing the availability of developable land as well as the existing commercial make up of the central area, we have concluded that approximately one quarter of the future warranted space could reasonably be accommodated in the Downtown area. We feel this assumption is acceptable in light of the past Downtown shares of total commercial space. Since the Official Plan and Zoning Policy for the Downtown area is reasonably diverse in terms of permitted uses, significant changes to accommodate the space will not be required.
We have assumed that the remainder of the warranted space in Brockville will be situated in commercial areas outside the Downtown area. The land required to accommodate these new facilities has been estimated with several assumptions being made concerning appropriate site coverage levels as well as requirements typically made of a commercial market-place to provide a reasonably diverse selection of potential sites for new business projects. In this preliminary analysis, we have concluded that approximately 50 - 55 acres of suitably designated and zoned commercial land will be required over the long term in commercial districts of Brockville outside the Downtown area.
We have already indicated that on the supply side, some 87.4 acres of commercially designated land is available outside the Downtown area (including 7.5 acres currently being developed). However, the bulk of this land is designated and zoned for Commercial Highway uses (53.2 acres) which limits the range of permitted commercial
10 activity. The remaining commercial lands include 14.5 acres for Industrial Commercial uses plus another 17.4 acres for General Commercial uses. Again, the permitted range of uses in the Industrial Commercial zone is very restrictive while a much broader range of activity suited to the type of space considered in this analysis, is permitted in most of the General Commercial zones. It is noteworthy that the 6.7 acres of General Commercial land comprising the Swift Water developments parcel at North Augusta Road and the CNR tracks is also constrained in terms of permitted commercial uses.
We have undertaken a detailed review of the permitted forms of business activity under existing commercial zones in the City and compared these uses to the type of space found to be warranted in Brockville by this analysis. Our findings suggest that approximately 25.0% of the retail/service space warranted outside the Downtown Area could be accommodated on existing Commercial Highway designated lands which dominate the current inventory of available commercial property. Given the various assumptions made in the analysis which follows, including a reasonable site coverage factor, the Commercial Highway facilities would require approximately 8.5 - 10.0 acres of land. Hence, the remainder of the warranted space identified by this analysis will require appropriately zoned and designated commercial lands located outside the Downtown Area in the amount of approximately 40.0 - 45.0 acres over the long term study period. By comparison, the 17.4 acres of General Commercial land presently available will be insufficient for market needs over the long term.
To resolve the apparent short fall of appropriately designated commercial lands, the following Official Plan and Zoning adjustments could be considered:
• spot zoning of strategically located Highway Commercial lands to broaden the range of permitted uses to suit specific development proposals while maintaining the integrity of the Commercial Highway designation may be appropriate in some instances.
• change the Official Plan designation and Zoning Bylaw of strategically located land parcels to General Commercial uses.
11 • over the long term, an additional shopping centre designation will probably be required to accommodate the department store space identified in the analysis. A highly visible and accessible site will be required for this form of development which may eventually comprise between 125,000 to 150,000 square feet of retail and associated service space. Given the market growth identified by the analysis, such a development may find it necessary to be phased with the eventually build out occurring with a department store tenant during latter stages of the study period.
• local convenience designations for small commercial projects in new residential areas expected to evolve in the City’s north and western ends may be appropriate. This will depend on future development in the local market.
• a broadening of the Industrial Commercial definition could be considered to permit a wider range of office activities. A broadening of this definition will facilitate improved interaction in the local business community. Furthermore, office accommodation can be designed to be very compatible within industrial zones.
The manner in which these recommendations are applied to the Brockville situation will depend on a number of variables which cannot be anticipated at this time. These variables might include the specific site, accessibility and visual exposure requirements of particular development proposals. Furthermore, the availability of specific commercial sites and the ease with which development parcels can be assembled for project development may influence the future requirements for commercial land.
It must be recognized that new commercial development will typically prefer a location in the vicinity of existing major commercial areas for reasons of exposure, accessibility, and competitive proximity. Hence, the substantial commercial district in the vicinity of 1000Islands Mall and the Parkedale/Stewart Boulevard junction will undoubtedly contain a major portion of the new commercial facilities developed in the future. In light of this
12
fact, it is noteworthy that existing General Commercial land outside the Downtown (amounting to 17.4 acres) is distributed between 11 individual sites. The average size for the ten parcels excluding the 6.7 acre Swift Water Site is approximately 1.0 acres. Furthermore, all the parcels are distributed throughout the City with only 5 being situated in the City’s northend. It is therefore foreseeable that a short fall of available general commercial land may exist in the northend over the short to mid term future.
In conclusion, the recommendations provided in this report are intended to provide the City with suitable insight and guidelines for the formulation of future planning policy based on market research. However, these findings should not be considered inflexible as alterations will undoubtedly be required subject to the individual requirements of developers, tenants, financial considerations, architectural planning goals and municipal planning objectives. Furthermore, our findings are subject to the varied assumptions which underlie our analysis and are discussed in detail in the body of the report. Finally, it should be stressed that the analysis evaluates the warranted space for only a portion of business categories permitted by the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law for commercial areas. Hence, additional commercial land will undoubtedly be required by other forms of business not considered in this report over the future.
13 wrmoooua ao MD mu 1 NOLI3S
Section 1. The City of Brockville
This section of the report provides an overview of The City of Brockville, considering the following elements:
• the local economic base of Brockville;
• the distribution of existing concentrations of retail/service and office space, as well as known proposals for new development in the future;
• the locational attributes of Brockville within its trade area, and the local and regional accessibility characteristics of the Brockville commercial inventory.
Overview of The City of Brockville
The City of Brockvilie is located in the eastern portion of the province, midway between Kingston and Cornwall on Highway 401 and 110 kilometres south of Ottawa, the nation’s capital. Furthermore, it is situated within the County of Leeds and Grenville on the shores of the St. Lawrence River. The nearest border crossing for the United States (New York State) is within 15 minutes driving time of Brockville, at Prescott.
The City performs the role of a regional service centre for the surrounding hinterland and comprises a relatively stable and mixed economic base. For instance, over 1.2 million square feet of retail and personal service space is operated in the City, servicing a market area which extends well beyond Brockvifle itself. Furthermore, a significant amount of social service employment exists in the City as witnessed by the Municipal and County governments plus an assortment of Provincial/Federal functions. Tourism and hospitality services are enhanced by demand spun off from travellers along Highway 401 as well as visitors to the St. LawrenceíThousand Islands area. Finally, a significant industrial base operates in Brockville and area including major employers such as Black & Decker, Parke-Davis, Compas, Proctor & Gamble, Brock Telecom, Somerville
14 Packaging and Phillips Cables Ltd. The economic stability of the Brockville area is represented by the relatively low unemployment rate experienced in recent years, i.e. 5.7% during 1989.
Significant retail/service concentrations in the City are found on major arterial roads, both in the downtown area and in the vicinity of Highway 401. The largest and most diverse commercial area is Downtpwn Brockville where a variety of retail/service outlets are situated along both sides of King Street. The largest space users in the Downtown include Canadian Tire, an IGA Supermarket, Reliable Furniture and a Woolworth’s general merchandise store. In total, over 460,000 square feet of space was identified in this area (see Table A-i).
The downtown area is also the City’s primary district for office space, comprising over 200,000 square feet. A number of office buildings are situated along King Street as well as side streets in the vicinity. The remainder of the existing office stock is distributed throughout the City, amounting to over 150,000 square feet.
The other major retail/service concentrations in the vicinity of Highway 401 include the Brockville Shopping Centre, an older strip plaza anchored by a Zeller’s Department Store and a No Frills food store. This facility is located at the northeast corner of Central Avenue and Stewart Boulevard, a major north-south artery in the City. On the north side of Highway 401, the second largest concentration of retail/service space in the City has evolved near the Parkedale Avenue and Stewart Boulevard intersection. It includes 1000 Islands Mall, the City’s only enclosed centre which is anchored by a large Woolco store (120,800 square feet) and a smaller Sears department store (30,600 square feet). Furthermore, a Steinberg’s Supermarket is located in the Mall bringing its total size to over 270,000 square feet. In the immediate vicinity of this centre along both Parkedale Avenue and Stewart Boulevard, a variety of other retail facilities and restaurant/fast food outlets are also operating.
15 Brockvllle Accessibility
Highway 401 is Ontario’s busiest highway and acts as a vital link between Toronto and Montreal, the country’s largest urban areas. It therefore provides Brockville with excellent access to eastern and western portions of its market area as well as major urban centres in southwestern Ontario and Quebec. Furthermore, Brockville retail facilities, particularly those located in the north end of the City, are exposed to substantial volumes of daily traffic along this artery. For instance, during 1988, the average daily east - west traffic passing between North Augusta Road and Stewart Boulevard on Highway 401 was 15,300 vehicles.
Brockville is served by three interchanges with Highway 401, at this time. The first is located west of the City at the intersection with Highway 2. The second and most heavily used interchange is at Stewart Boulevard where a significant amount of commercial space is currently operating. Stewart Boulevard is the main north - south arterial roadway in the City and becomes Highway 29 as it travels north from the City towards Smiths Falls. A proposal to widen Stewart between Parkedale and Laurier during 1991 to four lanes will accommodate the increasing traffic volumes being experienced in the vicinity.
The third interchange, located at North Augusta Road, is the entrance way to the City’s John G. Broome Industrial Park as well as the eastern end of the City. Plans exist to upgrade this interchange within three to five years, providing a smoother flow of traffic in the vicinity. This interchange improvement will be tied to the City’s plans to service more industrial lands in the nearby industrial park.
Other major arterial roadways within Brockville include Parkedale Avenue, a four lane route which runs in an east - west direction on the north side of Highway 401 and serves much of the commercial development in the City’s north end including 1000 Islands Mall. On the south side of Highway 401, Central Avenue (Reynolds Drive) is an east - west arterial roadway carrying local traffic. Finally, King Street which is situated in the southern most portion of the City, travels through the heart of the
16 downtown area. Beyond the City limits, it becomes Highway 2 and provides alternative access to outlying rural districts.
Proposed Commercial Activity
On TableA-2found in the Appendix Section,we have identifiedall commerciallyzoned and Official Plan designated lands as well as properties which currently have applications outstanding for commercialdesignationsin the Cityof Brockville. The map accompanyingthis table provides the location of each of these land parcels. The bulk of the land whichis commerciallyzoned or designated, is found to the north of Highway 401 where significantamounts of developable land exist. The southern portion of the City contains the older, more mature districts of Brockville where there are fewer vacant parcels of land for commercial use. In total, 93.4 acres of land are either designated or zoned and approved for commercial use at this time. Approximately 7.5 acres of this land is currently being developed or just completed for office, retail, hotel and recreational uses. Furthermore, applications for commercial designation or preliminary planning for another 10.8 acres have been received by the City and additional applications are expected for the future. Over 75% of the property cited above, i.e. designated, approved as well as applications for rezoning or Official Plan amendments are located north of Highway 401.
17
IH.L N0LI.Das 1 ‘.IUVL v,Iv
Section 2. The Trade Area
In order to determine the additional retail/service space that will be warranted in the City of Brockville over the future study period, it is necessary to consider the expenditure patterns of potential customers. The market influence attributable to the retail infrastructure of an urban centre the size of Brockville can be expected to extend over a wide area, beyond any precise boundaries that could be drawn. However, experience indicates that for the purpose of making appropriate estimates of future warranted additional space in a community, the delineation of a specific trade area or study area is required. The trade area is the geographic district from which an urban centre such as Brockville would normally expect to derive the major portion of its sales volume support for major store categories, generally between 75.0% and 95.0%. The geographic extent of a trade area is a function of several factors, including:
• accessibility and visual exposure provided by the existing and proposed road network;
• the existing retail attractions currently located within the community;
• competitive facilities in other communities, including major regional shopping centres in more distant, large urban areas; and
• natural or man-made barriers, such as rivers, railways or limited access expressways which may inhibit or restrict the easy movement of customers.
The remaining market support for Brockville retaWservice facilities would be derived from non-trade area residents including expenditures from visitors, tourists, employees working but not residing in the trade area, and persons conducting business in the area. These expenditures are commonly referred to as “inflow”and have been recognized in our analysis. By focusing the market analysis upon a well defined study area, specific population, income and expenditure trends as well as the most competitive commercial
18
• I • I I 3 • —
o z t-1
0 (T o — D N
1 w
\%j1
-- \\-
centres within Brockville can be identified. Furthermore, the future space that will be warranted in the City of Brockville can be realistically assessed.
The trade area defined in this study has been presented on the accompanying map. It recognizes the factors discussed above, along with our market knowledge of this portion of Eastern Ontario and our experience derived through similar market studies conducted across Canada. Furthermore, we have conducted empirical research at the three major commercial areas in Brockville to determine the area from which the bulk of expenditure support for these retailers is derived on a regular basis.
This empirical research took the form of a licence plate survey conducted in Downtown Brockville, 1000 Islands Mall and the Brockville Shopping Centre during July 1990. The residential address of owners of the surveyed vehicles was determined and subsequently plotted on a map to assist us in the determination of an appropriate overall trade area for Brockville retail facilities. The results indicate that 82.6% of the survey sample were residents of the defined trade area, leaving inflow at 17.4% of the total sample.
The Brockville trade area extends for approximately 32.5 kilometres from Brockvifle to the northwest where travel time, sparse population densities and competition in Smiths Falls become limiting factors. To the immediate south of Brockville is the St. Lawrence River which forms a natural trade area boundary and separates the City from New York State. The eastern limit of the trade area extends for approximately 35.0 kilometres and corresponds with the County line between Leeds and Grenville County and Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry County. Again driving times and competition in centres such as Cornwall must be considered. The western extension of the trade area is influenced by the retail/service competition in the City of Kingston, located further to the west. It extends approximately 31.0 kilometres to the west of Brockville.
The trade area has been divided into two distinct zones in order to recognize the differing demographic, income and expenditure characteristics of the local population. Furthermore, consumer shopping habits, accessibility and the existing and proposed
19 retail competition have been considered. A short description of these two zones follows.
Primary Zone
The Primary Zone is the geographic area in which future retail/service space in Brockville will have its greatest impact on expenditures made by local residents, due to their proximity to the commercial facilities. For the purposes of this analysis, the Primary Zone comprises the entire City of Brockville. It extends as far east as Oxford Avenue and North Augusta Road and as far west as the Brockville Golf and Country Club. The northern boundary reaches north of Centennial Road while the southern boundary is the St. Lawrence River.
Secondary Zone
The Secondary Zone constitutes the remaining portion of the trade area outside of Brockville including rural areas and several smaller towns and villages. The relative amount of expenditures captured from residents of this zone is less than that captured from Primary Zone residents due to increased travelling time as well as proximity to competitive intervening retaWserviceopportunities. Furthermore, the significant facilities that exist in Kingston, Smiths Falls, Ottawa and Cornwall have a somewhat greater impact on the expenditures of these consumers. However, given the proximity of Brockvifle retail facilities, a significant level of sales support from this area is expected for Brockvifle retailers in the future.
20
NOLLV’IflJOJ VIV HcIVKL mU
‘ENOLIDHS TABLE 1: HISTORIC AND CURRENT TRADE AREA POPULATION (1
1976 1981 1986 1990
Primary Zone
Population (2 19,903 19,896 20,880 22,000 Periodic Growth (7) 984 1,120 Average Annual Growth (1) 197 280
Secondary Zone
Population (3 32,162 32,979 33,647 34,200 Periodic Growth 817 668 553 Average Annual Growth 163 134 138
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Populatiofl ::52,O65 52,875 54,527 56,200 Periodic Growth 810 1,652 1,673 Average Annual Growth 162 330 418
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) The 1976, 1981 and 1986 historic population for both zones is based on Statistics Canada Census information. 2) The current 1990 population for the Primary Zone is based on an evaluation of recent housing completions as indicated by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation along with data from city planning staff. 3) The 1990 Secondary Zone is based on discussions with officials of the towns and townships which comprise this zone regarding the current population levels and recent subdivision activity as well as an examination of historic trends.
21 Section 3. The Trade Area Population
Historic and forecast population for the trade area and its component zones has been presented in Tables 1 and 2. As indicated by Table 1, the historic population for the period 1976 through 1986 is based on Census of Canada data. The 1990 population estimates reflect 1988 assessment data for towns, villages and townships, recent housing completions data, historic growth trends and information derived through discussions with local planning authorities. For the projection period until 2010, our estimates reflect past trends, proposals for future residential development and local growth expectations.
Historic Population
Table 1 presents the historic and current population for the trade area and its component zones. For the Primary Zone, population remained constant between 1976 and 1981, however, by 1986 growth amounted to approximately 1,000 persons over the preceding 5 years. Subsequent to 1986, significant housing construction occurred in Brockville, according to CMHC data, so that the 1990population for the Primary Zone is estimated at 22,000 persons. This recent growth has been distributed between subdivisions in the northern and western portions of the City as well as assorted infill developments.
For the Secondary Zone, population levels increased at a rate of 163 persons per year between 1976 and 1981,but declined slightly to 134 persons annually between 1981 and 1986. For the current year, our estimate of 34,200 persons is based on historic trends as well as recent subdivision activity within each of the towns and townships that comprise this zone.
It is noteworthy that a significant amount of the population growth in the Secondary Zone has taken place in Elizabethtown Township which abuts the City of Brockville.
22 TABLE 2: CURRENT AND PROJECTED TRADE AREA POPULATION
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
Population 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 Periodic Growth 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Average Annual Growth 200 200 200 200
Secondary Zone
Population 34,200 34,900 35,600 36,300 37,000 Periodic Growth 700 700 700 700 Average Annual Growth 140 140 140 140
TOTAL TRADE AREA
57,90() 59600 61,300 63,000 Periodic Growth 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,700 Average Annual Growth 340 340 340 340
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Forecasts based on historic trends, an evalution of proposed subdivision activity in both the primary and secondary zones as well as discussions with local planning staff.
23 Residents of this area often commute to Brockville for their employment and are attracted by lower priced land as well as availability of larger rural lots. This growth is expected to continue in future years and is reflected in our population forecast for this zone.
Overall the trade area population has risen by 7.9% since 1976, and average annual growth rates have more than doubled in recent years. The current 1990 population estimate for both zones is some 56,200 persons.
Forecast Population
Table 2 presents our projections for future population in the two trade area zones. The future study period for this analysis extends to the year 2010 and is presented at five year intervals.
The population growth forecast for the Primary Zone is expected to be relatively consistent over the study period with past trends, increasing at a rate of 200 persons annually and reaching 26,000 people by the year 2010. Our forecasts recognize historic growth trends as well as the stable local economy and efforts by the City’s Economic Development department to attract new employers and investment to the area.
Future population levels in the Secondary Zone are also expected to increase at a rate consistent with the past and reach 37,000 people by the end of the study period. Significant population settlements in the Secondary Zone include Prescott, Cardinal, Athens and Spencerville. These communities are expected to show moderate to limited population growth in future years. Much of the expected population growth in the Secondary Zone will take place within Elizabethtown Township in the vicinity of Brockville.
For the entire trade area, an additional 6,800 residents are projected over the next 20 years. The long term population for this area is forecast to reach 63,000 persons by the year 2010.
24
1VLLNLOJ IflJJQM3JX3 WLSU CMV NODNI V.LMVDIIHJ t’ NOLLDHS TABLE 3: PERSONAL PER CAPiTA INCOME
Canada Ontario Per Capita % Per Capita % Ontario as a Year Income (1 Increase Income (1 Increase % of Canada
1976 $6,877 $7,570 110.1 1977 $7,512 9.2% $8,212 8.5% 109.3 1978 $8,299 10.5% $8,985 9.4% 108.3 1979 $9,242 11.4% $9,953 10.8% 107.7 1980 $10,352 12.0% $11,016 10.7% 106.4 1981 $12,046 16.4% $12,757 15.8% 105.9 1982 $13,214 9.7% $14,071 10.3% 106.5 1983 $13,840 4.7% $14,997 6.6% 108.4 1984 $14,903 7.7% $16,422 9.5% 110.2 1985 $15,903 (2 6.7% $17,354 (3 5.7% 109.1 1986 $16,852 (2 6.0% $18,507 (3 6.6% 109.8 1987 $18,036 (2 7.0% $20,242 (3 9.4% 112.2 1988 $19,611 (2 8.7% $21,849 (3 7.9% 111.4 1989 $21,124 (2 7.7% $23,710 (3 8.5% 112.2 1990 $22,300 (4 5.6% $25,200 (4 6.3% 113.0
1990 Income Per Capita Index (5
Province of Ontario $25,200 100.0 Primary Zone $23,610 93.7 Secondary Zone $21,495 85.3 Total Trade Area $22,320 88.6
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts, Publication 13—201(1976—1988)for years 1976 to 1984. 2) Income figures for 1985 to 1989 are based on revised figures from Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts, First Quarter 1990 (13—001). 3) Income figures for 1985 to 1989 are based on revised figures from Ministry of Treasury and Economics, Ontario Economic Accounts, May 1990 issue. 4) Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. estimate. 5) Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. estimate based on 1986 Census of Canada data, recent Revenue Canada Taxation data, and Statistics Canada Urban & Rural Postal Code Information. 25 Section 4. Per Capita Income and DSTM Expenditure Potential
In addition to the future population, per capita income levels are important in the determination of future consumer expenditure potential and warranted additional retailJservice space in the Brockville market. This section of the report comprises a discussion of per capita income and department store type merchandise (DSTM) expenditure levels for the trade area population.
It has been our experience, based on consumer research for various geographic areas, that average per capita income levels represent a reasonable guide to the expenditure habits of residents in a given area. Although there are a number of intervening variables affecting consumer preferences and shopping habits, population groupings with similar income characteristics tend to have similar expenditure habits for broad merchandise categories.
Per Capita Income
Average personal per capita income for Canada and the Province of Ontario has been indicated on Table 3 for each year between 1976 and 1990. Income relationships between the province and Canada have also been summarized on this table. The average Canadian per capita income has increased from $6,877 in 1976 to an estimated $22,300 in 1990. Similarly, the average per capita income for Ontario residents has increased from $7,570 to an estimated $25,200 in 1990.
During the period 1976 to 1981, the Ontario per capita income increased at a slower rate than income for Canada. However, this trend was reversed during the 1980’sdue to the strong economic performance of Ontario since the recession of 1981-1982. The Ontario per capita income presently exceeds the national level by 13.0%.
In the lower portion of Table 3, the 1990 average per capita income for the Province of Ontario along with the trade area has been indicated. These figures are based on
26 TABLE 4: PER CAPITA DSTM EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
1981 1984 1987 1990
Province of Ontario
Per Capita Income $12,757 $16,422 $20,242 $25,200 Per Capita DSTM Expenditures(1 $1,396 $1,692 $2,288 $2,625 % of Income 10.9% 10.3% 11.3% 10.4%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Primary Zone
Per Capita Income $23,610 Per Capita DSTM Expenditures(2 $2,540 $2,730 $2,920 $3,110 $3,300 % of Income 10.8% Population 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 Total DSTM Potential ($Mill) $55.9 $62.8 $70.1 $77.8 $85.8
Secondary Zone
Per Capita Income $21,495 Per Capita DSTM Expenditures(2 $2,430 $2,610 $2,795 $2,975 $3,160 %oflncome 11.3% Population 34,200 34,900 35,600 36,300 37,000 Total DSTM Potential ($Mill) $83.1 $91.1 $99.5 $108.0 $116.9
Total Trade Area
ITotalDSTM Potentiai($Mil1).::: $139.0:.. $202.3
SOURCE; Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005). 2) Based on the income relationship between the province and each trade area zone. Forecast to increase in real terms (i.e., excluding inflation) at 1.5% per year after 1990. Rounded to the nearest $5.00.
27 1986 Census of Canada data, recent Revenue Canada Taxation Statistics, as well as Urban and Rural FSA Postal Code data.
The average 1990 per capita income for the trade area as a whole is $22,320 or 11.4% below the provincial average. The highest level of trade area income is found within the Primary Zone, at 6.3% below the province or $23,610 per capita. In the Secondary Zone, income levels are lower at $21,495 per capita or 14.7% below the provincial level.
Per Capita Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM) Expenditures
Department store type merchandise (DSTM) includes all types of goods sold in Canadian department stores and in specialty stores carrying similar items. The listing of store categories provided below comprise the total DSTM group:
• department stores • household furnishings
• general merchandise • drugs and cosmetics • apparel and accessories • other specialty DSTM
Appendix E should be consulted for a complete breakdown of the specific stores included in each category. Excluded from the DSTM group are food stores, liquor/beer/wine outlets, automotive facilities and home improvement centres. Furthermore, expenditures that are of a service nature, such as those made in restaurants, hair salons, travel agencies and other similar facilities are also excluded. The Other Store Type Analysis conducted in Section 7 will address the bulk of these categories.
The relationship between per capita income and DSTM expenditures has been illustrated in Table 4 for the Province of Ontario and the trade area. The DSTM expenditure figures are based on a review of historic retail trade data published by Statistics Canada, as well as recent changes in income levels. The upper portion of Table 4 shows the relationship between Ontario income and DSTM expenditures for selected years between 1981 and 1990. Over this period, income increases have been
28 accompanied by DSTM expenditure increases, although at different rates. The percent which DSTM purchases represent of income has fluctuated since 1981. For 1990, DSTM expenditures represent 10.4% of income, down from the 10.9% level reached in 1981.
The 1990 DSTM expenditures for the trade area zones are indicated in Table 4. Considering the higher income levels in Brockville, per capita expenditures for the Primary Zone are estimated at $2,540 as compared to $2,430 for Secondary Zone residents. These expenditures have been forecast to increase in real terms (i.e. excluding inflation) at 1.5% per year after 1990. These increases reflect changes in the standard of living or expenditure real growth and are consistent with past experience in the province. As expressed in the assumptions underlying this study, changes in expenditure patterns directly attributable to inflation have not been recognized. Future expenditures reflect the 1990 value of the Canadian dollar. A more detailed analysis of historic real growth in DSTM expenditures is contained in Appendix C.
The total DSTM potential for the two trade area zones is calculated by multiplying the per capita DSTM by the corresponding population for each future study year. In 1990, the total trade area potential amounts to $139.0 million as shown in the lower portion of Table 4. Over the course of the future study period, total expenditure levels are forecast to reach $153.9 million by 1995 and $202.7 million at the end of the study period.
The expenditures represent only a portion of future DSTM potential available in the trade area. Additional sales support will be derived from persons whose permanent residence is located beyond the trade area boundaries and reflect the access and exposure provided Brockville facilities by Highway 401. This will include persons working but not residing in the trade area, tourists, visitors and persons conducting business in the trade area. These sales, referred to as “inflow”,have been recognized in the analysis.
29
SECTiON 5. DEPARTMENT STORE ANALYSIS
Section 5. Department Store Analysis
The total DSTM potential is divided between two major components for this analysis, i.e. department store and non-department store DSTM facilities. We have distinguished between these two categories to facilitate our analysis of the future expenditure potential and warranted additional space in Brockville for future years. Factors which influence locational decisions differ for department stores as opposed to other retail categories, due to their large size, significant sales level requirements, broad merchandise composition and the limited number of chains operating in the market.
Existing Department Store Space
The estimated department store share of total DSTM potential in this market and current department store sales volumes recognize Statistics Canada expenditure data for the Province of Ontario, as well as the results of our consumer survey and evaluation of the trade area inventory. A total of 196,600 square feet of department store space currently operates in Brockville including two discount/promotional department stores and one traditional department store. By definition, traditional stores include Eaton’s, Simpson’s, The Bay, Robinson’s and Sears whereas the discount/promotional stores are Zellers, Woolco, K-Mart and Towers. The three trade area stores are a small Sears (30,600 square feet) located in 1000 Islands Mall along with a Woolco discount department store (120,800 square feet) and a Zdllers promotional outlet (45,200 square feet) situated at the Brockville Shopping Centre.
In addition to the local trade area competition, department stores situated in major centres outside the trade area will also influence the expenditure habits of local residents. This fact was confirmed by the consumer survey findings that indicated significant levels of outflow expenditures by local consumers. The largest outflows were captured by stores in Kingston, Ottawa and Cornwall. A description of the competition in major centres outside the trade area is found in Appendix A.
30 TABLE 5: TRADE AREA DEPARTMENT STORE POTENTIAL ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
Total DSTM Potential $55.9 $62.8 $70.1 $77.8 $85.8 Department Store Share (1 @ 22.0% $12.3 $13.8 $15.4 $17.1 $18.9
Secondary Zone
Total DSTM Potential $83.1 $91.1 $99.5 $108.0 $116.9 Department Store Share (1 @ 24.5% $20.4 $22.3 $24.4 $26.5 $28.6
TOTAL TRADE AREA jTôtaiDSTM Potential. $139O $153.9 : $16g4: $185.8 $202.7 j Total Department Store Share $32.7 $36.1 $39.8 $43.6 $47.5 Department Store Share as a %ofTotalDSTM 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.5% 23.4%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. estimates based on the results of the consumer survey, our evalution of the existing trade area department store competition, and Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005).
31 Trade Area Department Store Share
Based on our experience through similar studies, we have found that the department store share of DSTM expenditure potential appears to have an upper limit in the order of 35.0%, depending on the market in question. As this upper limit is approached, changes in the department store share resulting from the addition of new department stores tend to become smaller. For an urban area such as Brockville, department store shares of DSTM will usually remain relatively low, due to the large amount of non- department store DSTM specialty stores in operation as compared to the department store inventory. This is also consistent with a trend towards a declining department store share witnessed in most major Canadian markets over the past decade. To illustrate this trend, the Province of Ontario share level, estimated at 24.0% in 1989 according to Statistics Canada data, was as high as 30.6% in 1980.
The current and future department store share of total DSTM expenditure potential for each trade area zone has been shown in Table 5. For 1990, they are estimated at 22.0% for the Primary Zone and 24.5% for the Secondary Zone. These shares recognize the consumer survey findings as well our inventory evaluation and the current Provincial share level. For the community planning purposes of this report, the trade area shares have been held constant at current levels over the future study period. This recognizes that no firm proposal currently exists for the construction of new department store space within the City of Brockville. Over the forecast period, total trade area expenditures in department stores are projected to rise from $32.7 million in the current year to $47.5 million by the year 2010. These forecasts reflect 1990 Canadian dollar values.
Department Store Analysis
The consumer survey results have been used to estimate the portion of trade area expenditure potential spent in the three local stores. For 1990, the Brockville shares defined as the portion of trade area residents expenditures made in Brockville stores, are estimated at 83.7% for Primary Zone residents and 72.1% for the Secondary Zone
32 ______
TABLE 6: DEPARTMENT STORE ANALYSIS ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Primary Zone
Department Store Potential $12.3 $13.8 $15.4 $17.1 $18.9 Brockville Share @ 83.7% $10.3 $11.6 $12.9 $14.3 $15.8 @ 85.0% $11.7 $13.1 $14.5 $16.1
Less: EffectiveCompetition(1 $10.3 $10.7 $11.1 $11.5 $11.9 Residual Potential NA $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.2
Secondary Zone
Department Store Potential $20.4 $22.3 $24.4 $26.5 $28.6 Brockville Share @ 72.1% $14.7 $16.1 $17.6 $19.1 $20.6 @ 75.0% $16.7 $18.3 $19.9 $21.5 Less: Effective Competition (1 $14.7 $15.2 $15.8 $16.3 $16.9 Residual Potential NA $1.5 $2.5 $3.6 $4.6
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Department Store Potential $32.7 $36.1 $39.8 $43.6 $47.5 Total Brockville Share $25.0 $28.4 $31.4 $34.4 $37.6 Brockville Share as % of Total 76.5% 78.7% 78.9% 78.9% 79.2% Less: Effective Competition $25.0 $25.9 $26.9 $27.8 $28.8 Total Residual Potential NA $2.5 $4.5 $6.6 $8.8 Plus: Inflow Sales (2 $0.5 $1.0 $1.4 $1.9
TOTAL FU’rtJRE PoTENTIAL $3.0 $10.7
Square Feet GLA (3 Warranted Space @: $165 Per sq.ft. GLA 18,000
$170 Per sq.ft. GLA : $175 Per sq.ft. GLA 46,000 $180 Per sq.ft. GLA 59,000
SOURCE: Lariy Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Forecast to increase at 0.75% per year. 2) Estimated at 12.5% of total residual potential 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet Gross Leasable Area (GLA).
33 as shown in Table 6. The lower share indicated for the Secondary Zone recognizes the greater accessibility of these consumers to competitive facilities outside the trade area. The consumer survey also indicates that the majority of the outflow by all trade area residents travels to traditional stores as opposed to discount or promotional stores. The degree of outflow to traditional stores, estimated at over 75% of total expenditures exiting the trade area by local residents, reflects the fact that there is only one small Sears store representing this category in the local market at this time.
A marginal increase in the Brockville Share levels in both zones is forecast for planning purposes over the future study period, eg. from 83.7% to 85.0% in the Primary Zone. These increases reflect the variety of traditional stores operating in major centres outside the trade area as well as the magnitude of current local share levels in both zones. Furthermore, we believe it is unlikely that a second traditional store will locate in Brockville during the forecast period given their typical market threshold requirements, although the possibility of an expansion of the Sears store to a larger facility cannot be overlooked at this time. Our forecasts therefore reflect the ability of a third unidentffied discount/promotional store in Brockville to retain local expenditures. In the event that the Sears store was expanded or another major traditional store was to consider entering the market, a re-evaluation of the residual potential available to a new discount store would be required.
For each zone, residual potential is calculated as the future expenditures from trade area residents in existing Brockville stores which exceed current (1990) sales levels. The current sales levels are also known as the effective competition and reflect the consumer survey findings. As part of this calculation, an element of real growth has been added to the effective competition in future years. By doing so, we have assumed that existing stores will endeavour to capture a portion of future expenditure growth that is forecast for the trade area. The rate of growth forecast for the effective competition, 0.75% annually, recognizes existing stores can reasonably expect to capture a portion of market growth (assuming that continued efforts are made to remain competitive in the market) while not precluding an opportunity for the development of new facilities.
34 The residual that remains after deducting effective competition is generated by natural market growth, along with the projected changes in the Brockville Shares. The lower portion of the table provides a summation of the residual potential for both the Primary and Secondary Zones, eg. $4.5 million by the year 2000.
Inflow sales from non-trade area residents must also be accounted for and this has been indicated in the lower portion of the table. Based on the fmdings of the licence plate survey conducted in Brockville, we have estimated the inflow component as 17.5% of the residual sales potential. The addition of inflow to the total residual potential yields total future potential of $3.0 million by 1995, increasing to $10.7 million by the end of the study period.
Through the application of per square foot sales planning ratios to the total potential, future warranted department store space for Brockvilleis calculated. As presented in Appendix B, we currently estimate that the three department stores in Brockville achieve average sales of approximately $127 per square foot from local residents, ie. excluding inflow. Recognizing Statistics Canada sales data for other markets as well as the higher operating costs facing new department store facilities, we estimate $165 per square foot, including an estimate for inflow, to be a reasonable planning volume for discount/promotional store space in 1995. It should be noted that the future dollars are stated in terms of the 1990 value of the Canadian dollar. Over time, increases in the planning volumes are shown to reflect continued real growth by this sector.
By 1995, a total of 18,000square feet of additional department store space is warranted under the analysis, increasing to 59,000 square feet by the end of the study period. The analysis suggests that in the short term, insufficient market potential exists to support a third discount store, however, existing department stores will have an opportunity to increase their sales performance levels. Sufficient market support evolves after the year 2005for a new discount/promotional store comprising approximately 60,000 square feet.
It should be noted that this analysis does not consider the potential for transfer of sales from existing stores to a new development since this factor will depend on a variety of
35 considerations which are presently uncertain, eg., the specific tenant, store size, location and type of ancillary space accompanying the new store. Furthermore, should one of the existing department stores expand its premises, the appropriate timing for any new space would probably be set back accordingly. Finally, the type of non-department store DSTM facilities which are opened over the study period could possibly influence department store shares and hence, residual expenditure volumes available in the future.
:
36
SISA1VNV PLISU ‘dM015 .LtCWLUWcflUNON 9 NOJSIDHS TABLE 7: NON-DEPARTMENT STORE DSTM POTENTIAL ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
DSTM Potential $55.9 $62.8 $70.1 $77.8 $85.8 Less: Department Store Share $12.3 $13.8 $15.4 $17.1 $18.9
Non—Department Store DSTM $43.6 $49.0 $54.7 $60.7 $66.9
Distribution by Store Type: (1
General Merchandise $4.1 $4.6 $5.2 $5.7 $6.4 Apparel/Accessories $9.6 $10.8 $12.0 $13.4 $14.7 Household Furnishings $12.4 $14.0 $15.6 $17.3 $19.1 Drugs/Cosmetics $7.9 $8.8 $9.9 $10.9 $12.0 Other Specialty DSTM $9.6 $10.8 $12.0 $13.4 $14.7
$43.6 $49.0 $54.7 $60.7 $66.9 Secondary Zone
DSTM Potential $83.1 $91.1 $99.5 $108.0 $116.9 Less: Department Store Share $20.4 $22.3 $24.4 $26.5 $28.6
Non—Department Store DSTM $62.7 $68.8 $75.1 $81.5 $88.3
Distribution by Store Type: (1
General Merchandise $5.9 $6.6 $7.2 $7.8 $8.4 Apparel/Accessories $13.8 $15.1 $16.5 $17.9 $19.4 Household Furnishings $17.9 $19.6 $21.4 $23.2 $25.2 Drugs/Cosmetics $11.3 $12.4 $13.5 $14.7 $15.9 Other Specialty DSTM $13.8 $15.1 $16.5 $17.9 $19.4
$62.7 $68.8 $75.1 $81.5 $88.3
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Refer to Appendix D for % distribution.
37 Section 6. Non-Department Store DSTM Analysis
In addition to the department store space warranted in future years for Brockville, various specialty or ancillary stores comprising the remaining portion of the DSTM (department store type merchandise) group will be warranted. The other components of DSTM are divided between five broad categories.
• general merchandise;
• apparel and accessories;
• household furnishings;
• drugs and cosmetics; and
• other specialty DSTM.
A detailed breakdown of the store types in these categories is provided in Appendix E. This section of the report will examine the additional space warranted for these categories in future years.
In Table 7, the non-department store share of DSTM, which is the portion of total department store type merchandise sold in specialty stores, is shown for either zone in the trade area. The first line under each zone indicates the total DSTM potential available from residents. The department store share, discussed in the previous section, is deducted from this figure to derive the non-department store DSTM potential.
The subsequent distribution of trade area DSTM potential between the major categories reflects data from three sources, including:
• the historic Province of Ontario distribution based on Statistics Canada publications;
• the results of the consumer survey; and
38 our evaluation of the competitive inventory in the trade area.
The trade area distribution of expenditures has been held constant for the future study period. A more detailed discussion of this distribution is available in Appendix D.
The following analysis of specialty store categories is similar to that undertaken for department stores. The 1990 Brockville shares for each zone represent the portion of residents’ expenditures made at stores located within Brockville. These Brockville shares are based on the results of the consumer survey and our evaluation of the competitive inventory. The forecast shares recognize the level of outflow expenditures to other major urban centres indicated by the survey, the existing inventory of space and our experience in the evaluation of potential market capture levels for community retail/service facilities. For the future, the portion of trade area residents’ expenditures made at stores located in Brockville is forecast to rise in each category as Brockville increases in size and attractiveness as a commercial centre.
It should be noted that the Brockville Share of Primary Zone expenditures is relatively high in each store category. Hence, the opportunities for increasing the capture rate of expenditures in this zone over the future is limited. However, based on our experience, we would suggest that significant increases in the Brockviile share can be reasonably expected for the Secondary Zone. This assumes new commercial development in the future comprises a variety of new, innovative and attractive tenants filling the needs of local consumers which are met presently by only retailers outside the trade area. Furthermore, the opportunity also exists for existing Brockville merchants to redirect or expand their efforts to increase market capture levels.
The difference between the Brockville share for the future study years and the estimate for Effective Competition in each category, ie. 1990 sales support from trade area residents for all existing Brockville stores, is the residual potential. Again, for each specialty store category, a reasonable amount of real growth (excluding inflation) has been added to 1990 sales support levels to yield future Effective Competition. The residual potential that remains is subsequently adjusted to recognize an appropriate
39 amount of inflow, yielding the total future potential. The per square foot sales planning factors used to determine the amount of warranted space for each category in future years recognizes current sales levels in the City plus appropriate industry standards for this type of market.
As in the case of the department store group, sales transfers have not been recognized in this analysis due to unknowns concerning the specific tenants and type of future development that may occur as well as expansion or renovation opportunities which existing retailers may act upon. The current average sales levels for retailers currently operating in this market are on the whole reasonable, given our experience. There is no indication of excessively high average sales levels for these categories.
40 GENERAL TABLE General General Primary TOTAL Less: Residual Brockville Total Total Less: Brockville Residual Secondary 2) TOTAL Less: General Plus: Brockville 3) SOURCE: Warranted 1) Estimated Forecast Rounded Residual Brockville Effective Effective Effective Inflow Merchandise Merchandise Merchandise Zone TRADE FUTURE Potential Potential
8: Share Share Share Zone Space Larry to to Sales
MERCHANDISE at Potential Competition Competition Competition increase the Share as
12.5% @: AREA Smith POTENTIAL (2 nearest % Potential Potential Potential of of at & Total $230 $220 $250 $240
0.75% total Associates 1,000 (1 (1 @
@ @ residual Per Per Per Per square 99.0%.
52.5% 47.3% per
ANALYSIS sq.ft. sq.ft. sq.ft. sq.ft. year. Ltd. potential feet GLA GLA GLA GLA Gross $10.0 69.0% 1990 $4.1 $4.1 $4.1 $5.9 $2.8 $6.9 $6.9 NA NA NA
($Millions) Leasable
1
5,000.1 $11.2 72.3% 1995 $4.6 $4.3 $4.6 $6.6 $0.3 $7.2 $3.1 $1.0 $0.9 $8.1 $2.9 $0.1 $0.6 Area Square
I (GLA). Feet $12.4
7,0001 71.8% 2000
$5.2 $7.2 $5.1 $4.4 $0.7 $8.9 $3.0 $7.4 $0.8 $3.4 $1.7 $1.5 $0.2 GLA
1 (3 10,000 $13.5 71.9% 2005 $5.6 $4.6 $5.7 $7.8 $7.7 $1.0 $9.7 $3.1 $1.0 $3.7 $2.3 $2.0 $0.3
I — 13,0001 $10.7 $14.8 72.3% 2010 $6.4 $6.3 $4.7 $8.4 $1.6 $3.2 $7.9 $1.2 $4.0 $2.8 $0.4 $3.2
I 41 General Merchandise Analysis
Stores in the general merchandise category carry a wide variety of goods. Included in this category are chains such as Bi-Way, Bargain Harold’s, Giant Tiger, Woolworth’s, Stedmans, Nabour, as well as the smaller variety stores and general stores which often serve rural areas. Presently, there are some 36,100 square feet of general merchandise space operating within the City of Brockville. Included in this total is a Woolworth’s and Giant Tiger in Downtown Brockville and a Bi-Wayat the corner of Central Avenue and Park Street.
The total general merchandise potential previously determined for the forecast years in each trade area zone is shown on Table 8. The 1990 Brockville share for the Primary Zone is 99.0% versus 47.3% for the Secondary Zone. The high Brockville share for Primary Zone residents reflects the convenience nature of general merchandise store shopping. For Secondary Zone residents, a significant amount of expenditures are made in other trade area competitive centres such as Prescott, Cardinal and Athens amounting to 33.4% of total potential. Furthermore, almost 20.0% of expenditures travel to stores beyond the trade area (see Appendix B).
For the 1995 forecast year and subsequent years, Brockville shares are held constant in the Primary Zone due to their high levels at present. However, the Secondary Zone local share is increased to 52.5% for the forecast period which is a reasonable objective for planning purposes, recognizing the current shopping habits of these residents.
The residual potential is calculated as the difference between the Brockville share for future years and the effective competition. It represents net additional expenditures from trade area residents that can be served by Brockville stores. The inflow factor of 12.5% used for this category recognizes the convenience nature of general merchandise shopping.
The total future potential includes the residual potential plus estimated sales from inflow. For 1995, the total future potential amounts to $1.0 million, increasing to $3.2
42 million by the end of the study period. Future warranted general merchandise space in Brockville is calculated by applying per square foot sales planning factors to this total future potential. Currently, Brockville stores in this category are achieving sales of $191 per square foot, excluding inflow (Appendix B). In this analysis, a reasonable planning volume for 1995 is $220 (including inflow) which yields 5,000 square feet of additional general merchandise space for the initial forecast year. As the market continues to grow, a total of 13,000 square feet of space will be warranted by 2010.
43 TABLE
APPAREL Apparel/Accessories Apparel/Accessories Residual Less: Brockville Primary TOTAL Total Total TOTAL Less: Apparel/Accessories Plus: Brockville Residual Brockville Secondary Warranted Less: SOURCE: 3) 2) 1) Estimated Forecast Rounded Brockville Residual Effective Effective Effective Inflow Zone TRADE FUTURE Potential Potential
9: Share Share Share Zone Space Larry to Sales
to AN]) at Potential
Competition Competition Competition increase the Share as 17.5%
0:
AREA
Smith POTENTIAL (2 nearest %
ACCESSORIES Potential Potential Potential of of & at Total $270 $240 $260 $250 total 0.75% Associates 1,000 (1 (1
0 0 @ @ residual Per Per Per Per square 92.3% 93.0% 62.5% 53.0% per
sq.ft. sq sqft sq.ft.
year. Ltd. ft
ANALYSIS potential
feet GLA GLA GLA GLA Gross
$23.4 $16.2 $13.8 $16.2 69.2%
1990 $9.6 $8.9 $7.3 NA NA NA Leasable ______
I
($Millions) 13,000 $10.8 $10.0 $10.0 $25.9 $19.4 $15.1 $16.8 74.9% 1995 $9.2
$3.2 $0.8 $1.8 $7.6 $8.0 $2.6 $0.6 Area Square (GLA). Feet
20)000 $11.1 $11.2 $12.0 $10.3 $16.5 $17.4 $28.5 $21.5 75.4% 2000 $9.6 $1.6 $50 $8.7 $7.8 $0.9 $2.5 $4.1 GLA ______- (3
27,00Q - $12.5 $12.4 $13.4 $17.9 $18.0 $31.3 $11.2 $23.7 75.7% 2005 $2.6 $9.9 $8.1 $9.5 $6.9 $1.2 $3.1
$5.7 ______32,000 ____ $14.7 $13.7 $13.6 $10.2 $34.1 $25.8 $19.4 $18.6 $10.3 75.7% 2010 $3.5 $8.4 $3.7 $8.7 $1.5 $7.2 44 Apparel and Accessories Analysis
Table 9 presents the apparel and accessories analysis. The City of Brockville contains some 90,700 square feet of apparel space at this time. The largest concentrations of apparel space are in Downtown Brockville and 1000 Islands Mall where almost 81.0% of the total space is located.
The expenditure potential previously calculated for each trade area zone has been transferred to this schedule. The 1990 Brockvifle shares are 92.3% for Primary Zone residents and 53.0% for Secondary Zone residents. For the future, reasonable planning objectives are established for Brockville shares. In the Primary Zone, a limited increase is indicated due to the high level of capture already achieved. However, the Secondary Zone share could reasonably be expected to rise to 62.5% given the substantial amount of outflow from the trade area currently occurring, ie. 39.1% of total expenditures. This change is dependent on securing tenants which will intercept the fashion expenditures currently bypassing Brockville facilities.
The inflow factor is estimated at 17.5% of residual sales in each forecast year. The total future potential, including both residual potential and inflow, therefore reaches $3.2 million in 1995 and $8.7 million by 2010.
Based on results of the consumer survey and our retail/service inventory, we estimate current apparel stores in Brockvifle achieve average sales of $177 per square foot from trade area residents. This is reasonable for a City wide average but also reflects the absence of any significant amount of higher order fashion tenants. For this analysis, we have therefore employed a planning volume of $240 per square foot for 1995, which includes inflow expenditures and yields 13,000 square feet of warranted space. By the year 2010 a total of 32,000 square feet of additional apparel/accessories space is warranted in Brockville. The future sales volume levels are expressed in constant 1990 dollars.
45 ______
TABLE 10: HOUSEHOLD FURNISHINGS ANALYSIS ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
Home Furnishings Potential $12.4 $14.0 $15.6 $17.3 $19.1 Brockvile Share @ 78.2%. $10.9 $12.2 $13.5 $14.9 @ 82.5% $11.6 $12.9 $14.3 $15.8 Less: Effective Competition (1 $9.7 $10.1 $10.4 $10.8 $11.2 Residual Potential NA $1.5 $2.5 $3.5 $4.6
Secondary Zone
Home Furnishings Potential $17.9 $19.6 $21.4 $23.2 $25.2 Brockville Share @ 20.3% $4.0 $4.3 $4.7 $5.1 @ 35.0% Less: Effective Competition (1 $3.6 $3.7 $3.9 $4.0 $4.1 Residual Potential NA $3.2 $3.6 $4.1 $4.7
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Home Furnishings Potential $30.3 $33.6 $37.0 $40.5 $44.3 Total Brockville Share $13.3 $18.5 $20.4 $22.4 $24.6 Brockville Share as % of Total 43.9% 55.1% 55.1% 55.3% 55.5% Less: Effective Competition $13.3 $13.8 $14.3 $14.8 $15.3 Total Residual Potential NA $4.7 $6.1 $7.6 $9.3 Plus: Inflow Sales (2 $1.0 $1.3 $1.6 $2.0 [:::. TOTAL FUTURE POTENTIAL $5.7 $7.4• $9.Z $IL3 I
Square Feet GLA (3 Warranted Space @: $160 Per sq ft GLA 36,000 $165 Persqft GLA 45,000 $170 Per sq ft GLA 54,000 $175 Per sq.ft. GLA 65,OG:
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Forecast to increase at 0.75% per year. 2) Estimated at 17.5% of total residual potential 3) Roundedto the nearest 1,000 square feet Gross Leasable Area (GLA).
46 Household Furnishings Analysis
Household furnishings stores include hardware, furniture, appliance, radio, television, record stores and home decorating outlets such as carpet and drapery units. Home Improvement centres, such as Beaver Lumber, are not included in this category. A total of 180,200 square feet of household furnishings space is currently located in the City of Brockville. Approximately 59.4% of this space is located in Downtown Brockville. An additional 21.0% of this total space can be found in Cluster 5, located north of Highway 401.
Table 10 provides the analysis of future warranted household furnishings space in Brockville. The Brockville share for Primary Zone expenditures is currently 78.2%, but for planning purposes, is forecast to reach 82.5% during the future study period. For Secondary Zone residents, a very low share of expenditures is captured by Brockville facilities, ie. only 20.3%. The consumer survey results indicate Secondary Zone residents spend a large portion of household furnishings dollars in centres outside of the trade area such as Kemptville, Smiths Falls, Kingston and Ottawa. For planning purposes we would suggest that a significant increase in the Brockville Share could be achieved, assuming suitable tenants become available or existing tenants actively pursue the exiting expenditures. For the forecast period, the Brockville Share in this zone is set at 35.0%. A higher share, although possible, will depend on the type and variety of competitive facilities assembled in Brockville as well as the development of attractive and balanced commercial projects.
Using an inflow factor of 17.5%, total future potential for household furnishings is $5.7 million in 1995, rising to $11.3 million by the end of the study period. Based on a planning sales volume of $160 per square foot in 1995, a total of 36,000 square feet of additional space in this category will be warranted. For the end of the study period warranted space will total 65,000 square feet.
It is noteworthy that sales levels for existing stores in Brockville currently average $74 per square foot, excluding inflow. This suggests some operators achieve marginal sales
47 levels. Further, a substantial number of larger space users are in the City, which realize lower per square foot performance levels, possibly due to inefficiently used space. The future planning volumes recognize industry standards for a mix of large and smaller specialty operations.
48 TABLE
DRUG/COSMETICS Residual Brockville Primary Total TOTAL Less: Brockville Drug Residual Secondary Less: TOTAL Total Drug Drug Plus: Brockviile Warranted Less: SOURCE: 3) 2) 1) Forecast Rounded Estimated Store Store Store Residual Brockville Effective Effective Effective Inflow Zone TRADE FUTURE Potential Potential
11: Share Share Zone Share Space Potential Potential Potential Larry to Sales to at Potential Competition Competition Competition increase the Share as 12.5% @: AREA Smith POTENTIAL (2 nearest % of of & at Total
ANALYSIS $400 $420 $410 $430 0.75% total Associates 1,000 (1
(1 @
0 0 0 residual Per Per Per Per square 98.9% 99.0%
47.5% 44.9% per sq.ft. sq.ft. sq.ft. sq.ft. year. Ltd. potential
($Miflions) feet GLA GLA GLA GLA Gross $11.3 $12.9 $19.2 $12.9 67.2% 1990 $7.9 $7.8
$5.1 $5.1 NA NA NA Leasable
I::::3,0OoI $12.4
$13.4 $21.2 $14.6
68.9% 1995 $8.7 $8.8 $0.6 $0.6 $5.9 $8.1 $5.3 $5.6 $1.2 $0.2
$1.4 Area Square
I (GLA). Feet $13.5
$13.9 $23.4 $16.2
6,0001 69.2% 2000 $9.9 $1.4 $9.8 $0.9 $8.4
$5.5 $6.4 $6.1
$.6 $0.3 $2.3 GLA
I (3 $10.8 $10.8 $10.9 $14.7 $25.6 $14.4 $17.8
9,0001
69.5% 2005 $2.1 $1.3 $8.7 $7.0 $5.7 $6.6 $3.4
$0.5
j:. :13,000 $11.9 $11.9 $12.0 $15.9
$14.8 $27.9 $19.5
69.9% 2010 $8.9 $3.0 $7.6 $5.9 $1.7 $7.1
$5.4 $4.7 $0.7
I 49 Drugs and Cosmetics Analysis
The analysis for the drugs and cosmetics category is shown in Table 11. Currently, there is 33,000 square feet of drugs/cosmetics store space located within the City of Brockvifle. Major drug store chains represented in Brockville at this time include Pharma Plus in the Brockville Shopping Centre, Shoppers Drug Mart in 1000 Islands Mall, and Maxi Drug in Downtown Brockvifle as well as several other independent drug stores in the downtown area.
Expenditures made in drug stores tend to be very convenience oriented. This fact is reflected by the current Brockville share for Primary Zone residents estimated at 98.9%. By comparison, Secondary Zone residents spend 44.9% of all their expenditures within the City of Brockville. However, the Secondary Zone residents’ local share within the overall trade area is 75.2%. Limited increases in the Brockville share for both zones is forecast over the study period, recognizing the convenience nature of this category.
A smaller inflow factor, 12.5%, is used for this category due to the convenience nature of this group. By 1995, residual plus inflow potential amounts to $1.4 million for the trade area, rising to $5.4 million by the end of the study period.
Brockville drug/cosmetic stores are currently achieving sales of $391 per square foot from trade area residents according to the consumer survey results. This is a healthy performance level for the overall group in the City. By comparison, $400 per square foot, including inflow expenditures, is an appropriate planning volume for this analysis. At this level 3,000 square feet of space will be warranted in this category by 1995. Furthermore, total warranted space will amount to 13,000 square feet by the end of the study period.
50 ______
TABLE 12: OTHER SPECIALTY DSTM ANALYSIS ($Mil]ions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
Other Specialty DSTM Potential $9.6 $10.8 $12.0 $13.4 $14.7 Brockville Share @ 96.1% $10.4 $11.5 $12.9 $14.1 @ 96.5% $10.4 $11.6 $12.9 $14.2 Less: Effective Competition (1 $9.2 $9.5 $9.9 $10.2 $10.6 Residual Potential NA $0.9 $1.7 $2.7 $3.6
Secondary Zone
Other Specialty DSTM Potential $13.8 $15.1 $16.5 $17.9 $19.4 Brockville Share @ 48.2% $7.3 $8.0 $8.6 $9.4 @ 55.0% 2J $10.7 Less: Effective Competition (1 $6.7 $7.0 $7.2 $7.5 $7.7 Residual Potential NA $1.3 $1.9 $2.3 $3.0
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Other Specialty DSTM Potential $23.4 $25.9 $28.5 $31.3 $34.1 Total Brockville Share $15.9 $18.7 $20.7 $22.7 $24.9 Brockville Share as % of Total 67.9% 72.2% 72.6% 72.5% 73.0% Less: Effective Competition $15.9 $16.5 $17.1 $17.7 $18.3 Total Residual Potential NA $2.2 $3.6 $5.0 $6.6 Plus: Inflow Sales (2 $0.5 $0.8 $1.1 $1.4 TOTAL FUTURE POTENTIAL [.: $2.7 $4.4: $6.1 -- $8.0
Square Feet GLA (3 Warranted Space @: $240 Per sq ft GLA 11,000 $250 Per sq ft GLA 18,000 $260 Per sq ft GLA 23,000 $270 Per sq.ft. GLA
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Forecast to increase at 0.75% per year. 2) Estimated at 17.5% of total residual potential 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet Gross Leasable Area (GLA).
51 Other Specialty DSTM Analysis
The other specialty DSTM category includes a variety of store types, which are detailed in Appendix E. Our inventory of existing space in Brockville shows a total of 104,400 square feet. Approximately 57.0% of this space is located in Downtown Brockville. Other large concentrations of other specialty DSTM space include 15,000 square feet in 1000 Islands Mall and 9,300 square feet in the Brockville Shopping Centre.
Table 12 presents the other specialty DSTM analysis. The 1990 Brockville Shares are based on the consumer survey. For the Primary Zone they are effectively held constant over the forecast period due to their current magnitude, i.e. exceeding 96.0%. For the Secondary Zone, Brockville Shares are forecast at 55.0% which is a significant increase over existing levels. At this time, outflow by these residents to centres outside the trade area amounts to 37.6%. If appropriate space is introduced to Brockville, the future Brockville share is not unreasonable.
The addition of a 17.5% inflow factor to the residual potential yields total future potential of $2.7 million in 1995, rising to $8.0 million by the year 2010 for the other specialty DSTM category. During the current year, Brockville stores in this category are estimated to reach sales of $151 per square foot from local trade area residents. However, a higher sales volume, $240 per square foot (including inflow), is an appropriate planning level for 1995.
By 1995, an additional 11,000 square feet of other specialty DSTM space will be warranted in Brockville. Over the longer term, warranted space will total 30,000 square feet at sales of $270 per square foot.
52
SISA1VNV ‘JJAL minis UHHiO L NOLLDHS TABLE 13: PERSONAL PER CAPITA INCOME AND FOOD STORE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
1981 1984 1987 1990
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
Per Capita Income $12,757 $16,422 $20,242 $25,200 Per Capita Food Expenditures (1 $1,042 $1,262 $1,447 $1,575 % of Income 8.2% 7.7% 7.1% 6.3%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PRIMARY ZONE
Per Capita Income $23,610 Per Capita Food Expenditures (2 $1,555 $1,595 $1,635 $1,670 $1,710 % of Income 6.6% Population 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 Total Food Potential ($Millions) $34.2 $36.7 $39.2 $41.8 $44.5
SECONDARY ZONE
Per Capita Income $21,495 Per Capita Food Expenditures (2 $1,530 $1,570 $1,605 $1,645 $1,685 % of Income 7.1% Population 34,200 34,900 35,600 36,300 37,000 Total Food Potential ($Millions) $52.3 $54.8 $57.1 $59.7 $62.3
TOTAL TRADE AREA
$91.5 $963 $1015 $106.81
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. I) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005). 2) Based on the income relationship between the province and each trade area zone. Forecast to increase in real terms (i.e., excluding inflation) at 0.5% per year after 1990. Rounded to the nearest $5.00.
53 Section 7. Other Store Type Analysis
In addition to DSTM establishments, food stores, eating and drinking facilities, financial institutions and personal services were analyzed for future warranted additional space in Brockville. This section contains the analyses for each of these groups.
Food Store Analysis
Food stores can be separated into two categories, i.e. supermarkets and specialty food. Specialty food includes jug milk stores, bakeries, delicatessens, butcher shops, health food stores and other similar outlets. They do not include service facilities such as restaurants or fast food outlets, nor do they include wholesale food distributors.
The historic and current relationship between per capita income levels and the food store expenditures in Ontario has been indicated in the upper portion of Table 13. Utilizing Statistics Canada data, average per capita food store expenditures in Ontario have increased from $1,042 in 1981 to $1,575 in 1990. These expenditures have decreased as a percent of income, from 8.2% in 1981 to 6.3% in the current year.
Based on the income relationship with the Province, per capita food store expenditures for the trade area zones have been estimated for 1990. They amount to $1,555 in the Primary Zone and $1,530 in the Secondary Zone. The expenditures have been forecast to increase in real terms, i.e. excluding inflation, at a rate of 0.5% per year over the study period. This real growth in expenditures is based on a review of historic per capita food store expenditures and consumer price index (C.P.I.) data available from Statistics Canada. A detailed analysis of historic growth in expenditures is presented in Appendix C.
The total food store expenditure potential is a product of per capita expenditures and the population for each zone over the future study period. For the entire trade area,
54 TABLE 14: SUPERMARKET SHARE OF FOOD STORE EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone
Total Food Store Potential $34.2 $36.7 $39.2 $41.8 $44.5
Supermarket Share (1 @ 74.5% $25.5 $27.3 $29.2 $31.1 $33.2
Secondary Zone
Total Food Store Potential $52.3 $54.8 $57.1 $59.7 $62.3
Supermarket Share (1 @ 75.5% $39.5 $41.4 $43.1 $45.1 $47.0
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Total Food Store Potential $86.5 $91.5 $96.3 $101.5 $106.8
$76.2: $80.2 ITotal Supermarket Share $65.0 $68.7 $72.3 I
Supermarket Share as a % of Total Food Store Potential 75.1% 75.1% 75.1% 75.1% 75.1%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. estimates based on the results of the consumer survey, our evalution of the existing trade area supermarket competition, and Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005).
55 it amounts to $86.5 million in 1990, rising to $106.8 million by the end of the study period.
Supermarket Analysis
Supermarket expenditures account for a substantial portion of total food store potential, as displayed on Table 14. For each zone, the current supermarket share has been calculated based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade data for the Province of Ontario, as well as our evaluation of the consumer survey results and the inventory of competitive space. The current supermarket share for the Province of Ontario is approximately 74.0%. We have estimated 1990 supermarket shares for the trade area to range between 74.5% in the Primary Zone and 75.5% in the Secondary Zone.
The supermarket shares have been held constant for future years, recognizing the inventory of food space and the planning nature of this report. Furthermore, there are no advanced plans for a new supermarket in Brockville during the immediate future. The supermarket potential for the trade area as indicated at the bottom of the table amounts to $65.0 million for 1990, increasing to $80.2 million by the end of the study period.
In Table 15, the future space warranted in the supermarket category is determined. The Brockville shares for 1990 are based on the results of the consumer survey. They refer to the portion of trade area residents’ total supermarket expenditures made in Brockville supermarkets. Currently, they amount to 99.0% for Primary Zone residents and 51.0% for Secondary Zone residents. In the future, Primary Zone shares remain constant for planning purposes due to their current magnitude. In the case of the Secondary Zone, a moderate increase is shown, recognizing the convenience nature of this store type. It is noteworthy that another 25.6% of Secondary Zone expenditures are captured by local stores outside Brockville leaving outflow from the trade area at a substantial level of 23.4% during 1990 for a convenience oriented store type such as this.
56 ______
TABLE 15: SUPERMARKET ANALYSIS ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Primary Zone Supermarket Potential $25.5 $27.3 $29.2 $31.1 $33.2 Brockvile Share @ 99.0% $25.2 $27.0 $28.9 $30.8 $32.9 Less: Effective Competition $25.2 $25.2 $25.2 $25.2 $25.2 Residual Potential NA $1.8 $3.7 $5.6 $7.7
Secondary Zone
Supermarket Potential $39.5 $41.4 $43.1 $45.1 $47.0 Brockvile Share @ 51.0% $20.1 $21.1 $22.0 $23.0 $24.0 @ 55.0% $22.8 $23.7 $24.8 $25.9 Less: Effective Competition $20.1 $20.1 $20.1 $20.1 $20.1 Residual Potential NA $2.7 $3.6 $4.7 $5.8
TOTAL TRADE AREA
Supermarket Potential $65.0 $68.7 $72.3 $76.2 $80.2 Total Brockville Share $45.3 $49.8 $52.6 $55.6 $58.8 Brockville Share as % of Total 69.7% 72.5% 72.8% 73.0% 73.3% Less: Effective Competition $45.3 $45.3 $45.3 $45.3 $45.3 Total Residual Potential NA $4.5 $7.3 $10.3 $13.5 Plus: Inflow Sales (1 $0.6 $1.0 $1.5 $1.9 TOTALFUTUREPOTENTIAL I;.:.$5.I:.:::;::$8.3.: $1;L8 $15.41
Square Feet GLA (2 Warranted Space @: $425 Per sq.ft. GLA I2,000 $435 Per sq ft GLA 19,000 $445 Per sq ft GLA 27,000 $455 Per sq.ft. GLA 34;000:
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Estimated at 12.5% of total residual potential. 2) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet gross leasable area (GLA).
57 Our review of the consumer survey results found in Table B-S indicates that Brockville supermarkets are currently achieving average sales levels ($413 per square foot, excluding inflation) which are relatively strong by industry standard. Accounting for inflow in the order of 12.5%, total average sales presently exceed $470 per square foot. By comparison, the planning volume utilized in this analysis is $425 per square foot. Recognizing the strong volumes currently achieved by local stores, we have not incorporated a real growth adjustment to estimate future effective competition levels in this analysis.
An inflow factor of 12.5% is added to the residual potential yielding the Total Future Potential for Brockville. Appropriate sales per square foot are subsequently utilized to generate warranted additional space. It amounts to some 12,000 square feet in 1995 and 34,000 square feet in 2010. Assuming that a new store would accommodate at least 25,000 square feet, an opportunity for such a store arises shortly after the year 2000. However, given the strong sales levels currently achieved by existing stores, an earlier opening date could be possible under the assumption that a moderate and reasonable level of sales transfer from existing stores was acceptable. This assumption will also depend on the specific new supermarket operator entering the market and the ability of this store to compete in the local market.
A somewhat larger amount of supermarket space could be considered for Brockvifle over the long term, assuming reasonable transfer levels are taken. Our experience suggests that reasonable sales transfers from existing stores typically range as high as 5% - 10%, depending on factors such as the length of time required by existing stores to recover lost sales, or the level to which existing store sales decline relative to accepted industry standards.
58 TABLE
Prnary SPECIALTY Total Total Brockvile Less: Food Brockvillc TOTAL Less: Specialty Secondary Less: Specialty TOTAL Less: Residual Brockville Food Residual SOURCE: Less: 2) Warranted Plus: Specialty 1)
Rounded Estimated Store Store Residual Brockville Effective Effective Inflow Supermarket Supermarket Effective Zone TRADE FUTURE Potential Potential Food
Food Food
16: Share Share Share
Zone Space Potential Potential Larry Sales to Potential Store at Store Store Competition Competition
FOOD Competition Share the as @: AREA 12.5% Smith POTENTIAL (1 Share Share % nearest
Potential Potential Potential of &
STORE of Total Associates total 1,000 $330 $320 $300 $310
@ @ residual square
ANALYSIS Per Per Per Per 99.0% 72.5% Ltd.
sq.ft. sq.ft. sq sq potential. feet ft ft GLA gross GLA GLA GLA $25.5 $12.8 $39.5 $34.2 $17.9 $21.5 $52.3 $17.9 83.3% 1990 $8.6 $8.7 $8.6
$9.3 ($Millions) $9.3 NA NA NA leasable ______
I $36.7 $27.3 $41.4 $13.4 $54.8
4000 $17.9 $19.0 $22.8 83.3% 1995 $8.6 $9.4 $0.7 $9.3 $9.3 $1.3 $0.4 $9.7 $0.2 $1.1 area
Square (GLA). $10.0 $29.2 $39.2 $14.0 $57.1 $20.1 $10.2 $43.1 $17.9 $24.0 L000 83.8% 2000 $9.9 $8.6 $1.3 $9.3 $2.5 $0.9 $2.2 $0.3 Feet GLA 12,000 $10.7 $31.1 $41.8 $59.7 $14.6 $45.1 $10.6
$17.9 $25.3 $21.2 $10.6 83.8% 2005 $2.0 $8.6 $9.3 $1.3 $0.5 $3.8 $3.3 (2 15,000 $33.2 $11.3 $44.5 $11.2 $15.3 $62.3 $47.0 $17.9 $26.6 $22.3 $11.1 83.8% 2010 $8.6 $2.6 $1.8 $9.3 $50 $4.4 $0.6
I 59 Specialty Food Analysis
The expenditure potential for specialty food stores in Brockville has been analyzed in Table 16. The difference between the supermarket share of food expenditures previously considered, and the total food store group potential represents the volume available to specialty food stores. These figures are shown on the schedule for either trade area zone.
The consumer survey indicates Brockville shares of potential are currently 99.0% in the Primary Zone and 72.5% in the Secondary Zone. With consideration for the magnitude of these market shares as well as the convenience nature of specialty food store shopping, the future Brockville shares are held constant at current levels in both zones. It is noteworthy that the current inventory of space for this category totals 57,900square feet.
Table B-5 indicates that specialty food stores in Brockville are also reaching strong average sales levels, i.e. $311 per square foot, from local residents. By comparison, a 1995 planning volume of $300 per square foot has been utilized in the analysis. Hence, a real growth factor adjustment has not been incorporated into the determination of future Effective Competition levels for this category.
An inflow factor of 12.5% is subsequently applied to the residual potential, yielding total future potential in the amount of $1.3 million for 1995 and $5.0 million by the end of the study period. Division of the total future potential by appropriate per square foot planning factors for specialty food stores yields 4,000 square feet of warranted space for 1995 and 15,000 square feet by the year 2010.
As in the case of the supermarket group, some opportunity for additional warranted space may exist due to the strength of sales by existing operators and the possibility that reasonable transfer levels would be taken. These transfers would be subject to the ability of new tenants to effectively compete for a portion of the local potential. Again, it is our experience that reasonable sales transfers typically range as high as 5% - 10% of existing store sales, subject to factors such as duration of the transfer and the level to which sales decline, relative to accepted industry standards.
60 TABLE 17: PERSONAL PER CAPiTA INCOME AND EATING AND DRINKING EXPENDiTURE POTENTIAL
1981 1984 1987 1990
PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
Per Capita Income $12,757 $16,422 $20,242 $25,200 Per Capita Eating and Drinking Expenditures(1 $350 $416 $542 $700 % of Income 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PRIMARY ZONE
Per Capita Income $23,610 Per Capita Eating and Drinking Expenditures(2 $655 $705 $755 $800 $850 %oflncome 2.8% Population 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000 Total Eating and Drinking Potential ($Millions) $14.4 $16.2 $18.1 $20.0 $22.1
SECONDARY ZONE
Per Capita Income $21,495 Per Capita Eating and Drinking Expenditures2 $595 $640 $685 $730 $775 % of Income 2.8% Population 34,200 34,900 35,600 36,300 37,000 Total Eating and Drinking Potential ($Millions) $20.3 $22.3 $24.4 $26.5 $28.7
TOTAL TRADE AREA
• •. $i6.5 $s8j
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Restaurant, Caterer and Tavern Statistics (Publication 63—011). 2) Based on the income relationship between the province and each trade area zone. Forecasted to increase in real terms (i.e., excluding inflation) at 1.5% per year after 1990. Rounded to the nearest $5.00.
61 Eating and Drinking Analysis
Eating and drinking expenditures represent those made in establishments which serve prepared food and beverages such as restaurants and fast food outlets. Also included in this category are take-out establishments, doughnut shops, muffin shops, ice cream/frozen yogurt parlours and cafeterias.
As indicated in Table 17, per capita eating and drinking expenditures in Ontario have increased from $350 in 1981 to $700 in 1990, or 2.8% of current per capita income. The 1990 per capita expenditures in the trade area have been based on the income relationship between each trade area zone and the Province of Ontario. They are projected to increase in real terms, excluding inflation, at a rate of 1.5% per year over the future study period. Multiplying the per capita expenditures by the projected population yields the total potential.
An analysis of the additional eating and drinking space that will be warranted in Brockville in future years is presented in Table 18. The previously calculated expenditure potential is shown on the first line for each zone. Current and future Brockville share levels are subsequently shown with appropriate increases indicated for planning purposes in the forecast years. By subtracting the Effective Competition from forecast Brockville shares, the residual potential is calculated. This represents the expenditures of trade area residents that are not presently served by existing eating and drinking facilities in the City. It is noteworthy that a moderate level of real growth has been assumed for future levels of Effective Competition.
A higher inflow factor, 22.5% of total potential, is used in this category recognizing the significant additional sales support that can be derived from travellers on Highways 401 and 29 as well as tourists or occasional visitors to the area. With the addition of inflow, total future potential amounts to $3.9 million in 1995 rising to $12.3 million by the end of the study period. Based on applicable sales per square foot planning levels, approximately 18,000 square feet of eating and drinking facilities will be warranted in 1995, increasing to 49,000 square feet by the year 2010.
62
TABLE 18: EATING AND DRINKING ANALYSTS ($Millions)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Primary Zone Eating and Drinking Potential $14.4 $16.2 $18.1 $20.0 $22.1 Brockville Share c 95.6% $13.8 $15.5 $17.3 $19.1 $21.1 @ 96.0% $15.6 $17.4 $19.2 $21.2 Less: Effective Competition (1 $13.8 $14.3 $14.8 $15.4 $15.9 Residual Potential NA $1.3 $2.6 $3.8 $5.3
Secondary Zone Eating and Drinking Potential $20.3 $22.3 $24.4 $26.5 $28.7 Brockville Share @ 52.8% $10.7 $11.8 $12.9 $14.0 $15.2 @ 57.5% $12.8 $14.0 $15.2 $16.5 Less: Effective Competition (1 $10.7 $11.1 $11.5 $11.9 $12.3 Residual Potential NA $1.7 $2.5 $3.3 $4.2
TOTAL TRADE AREA Eating and Drinking Potential $34.7 $38.5 $42.5 $46.5 $50.8 Total Brockviile Share $24.5 $28.4 $31.4 $34.4 $37.7 Brockville Share as % of Total 70.6% 73.8% 73.9% 74.0% 74.2% Less: Effective Competition $24.5 $25.4 $26.3 $27.3 $28.2 Total Residual Potential NA $3.0 $5.1 $7.1 $9.5 Plus: Inflow Sales (1 $0.9 $1.5 $2.1 $2.8 TOTAL FUTURE POTENTIAL $3.9 $9.2 $12.3
Square Feet GLA (2 Warranted Space @: 18,000 $220 Per sq.ft. GLA I I $230 Per sq.ft. GLA 1200ö1
$240 Per sq.ft. GLA fs,Ooo I
$250 Per sq.ft. GLA I 4,OOOI
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Forecast to increase at 0.75% per year. 2) Estimated at 22.5% of total residual potential. 3) Rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet gross leasable area (GLA).
63 TABLE 19: FINANCIAL INSTiTUTION BRANCH ANALYSIS
Summary of Primary Zone Financial Institutions: (1
Map Key Name 1,4 Bank of Montreal 1,3 Royal Bank 1,4 Scotiabank 1,2 Toronto Dominion Bank
1 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce 1 Canada Trust 1 National Trust
1 Standard Trust
1 Montreal Trust
1 The Municipal Savings and Loan
Total Number of Branches 14
Total Square Feet GLA 59,100
Average Branch Size 4,221
1990 Primary Zone Population 22,000
Number of Persons per Branch 1,571 I
Forecast Market Analysis:
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Primary Zone Population 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000 26,000
Warranted Branches at:
1,400 persons per branch 16 16 17 18 19 1,600 persons per branch 14 14 15 16 16 1,800 persons per branch 12 13 13 14 14
Less: Existing Branches 14 14 14 14 14
[yarranted New Branches 0 0 1 2 2
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on the inventory of competitive retail/service space.
64 Financial Institution Branch Analysis
The following analysis establishes the market demand for additional bank, trust company and credit union space within the City of Brockville as warranted by the current and future Primary Zone population only.
Our inventory of existing financial branches in the Primary Zone reveals 14 separate facilities. All of the major Canadian banks with the exception of the National Bank, are represented in the City of Brockville as well as a variety of trust companies.
Based on the existing population and number of branches in the area, we have found that on average, there are 1,571 residents per branch. According to recent data provided by the Canadian Bankers Association, the 1989 average population per branch in Canada was 3,610 persons per branch. In a city such as Brockville, the ratio is relatively low because the local banks not only serve residents of Brockville, but also the adjacent rural population base as well. Since our inventory of existing space does not include facilities in the Secondary Zone, we are unable to calculate the space ratio for the City along with its adjoining hinterland. However, we have assumed that a reasonable service level for financial institution space is provided local residents, including local rural residents who rely on Brockville financial services.
Recognizing the service levels of existing banks in the Primary Zone, we have calculated the amount of warranted additional space assuming ratios of some 1,400 to 1,800 persons per branch. At the mid-point of this range, i.e. 1,600 persons per branch, no new branches are warranted by 1995. However, by the year 2000 one additional branch could be opened. By the year 2005, two new branches will be required and this level remains the same for the remainder of the study period.
65 TABLE Warranted Less: Total PERSONAL Total Current 2) Brockville Current Square Current
SOURCE:
1)
Based Rounded
Warranted Personal
Existing
Feet
Market
Square
20:
1990
on
Population
Larry Personal
per
SERVICES
to
Population
the
1990 Services
Feet
the Situation:
Person
Future
inventory Smith
nearest
Space Services
per
Ratio
&
Space
Space
Person
for
ANALYSIS
Associates
of
1,000
Brockville
Space
competitive
in
(2
Ratio
Brockville
square
Ltd.
feet
retail
(1
Gross
and
43,700 23,000 41.800
24000
Leasable
1995
service
1.9
I
Forecast
space.
22,000 41,800 45,600 24,000 41.800
Area
4,000
2000
1.9
1.9
(GLA).
Market
47,500 25,000 41.800
6,000:1:;;8,000
2005
Analysis:
1.9
49,400 41.800 26,000
2010
1.9
I 66 Personal Services Analysis
Personal Service establishments include beauty parlours and barber shops, laundry and dry cleaning outlets, shoe repair shops and photography studios. This analysis evaluates the warranted space for Personal Services space in Brockville over the future as seen on Table 20. Presently there is 41,800 square feet of Personal Services space within Brockville. The division of the existing space by the 1990 Brockville population yields a per capita space ratio of 1.9 square feet per person. Our experience in other markets suggests that a typical planning ratio for a community of this type (including the rural hinterland) would range between 0.5 - 1.0 square feet per person. A higher ratio is calculated for Brockville because the rural Secondary Zone population and accompanying inventory of space could not be considered.
In the lower portion of Table 20, the future warranted space for personal services is calculated. For this analysis we have assumed that the existing City inventory is sufficient to reasonably service the needs of Brockville and the accompanying rural population which also relies on these facilities. The future Brockville population levels anticipated are multiplied by the current square feet per person ratio to derive total warranted personal services space. From this total the existing 1990 space must be deducted to derive total future warranted space, rounded to the nearest 1,000 square feet. By 1995 an additional 2,000 square feet will be warranted, increasing to 8,000 square feet by the end of the study period.
67
SISA1VNV QNVNU 3VJS 3D1&1O 8 NOLLXIS TABLE CiTY SOURCE: City 1987-90 1971 1971 1977-81 N/A 1982-86 1) Based — of -76 -90 Not OF Brockville Pre 21: YEAR Applicable 1987 1986 1982 1978 1977 1974 1988 1984 1983 1980 1979 1975 1971 1990 1989 1985 1981 1976 1973 1972 BROCKVILLE—OFFICE on Larry 1971 the Smith Average Inventory & Associates Annual data Cumulative TOTAL 228,600 368,400 350,400 336,100 277,200 277,200 262,800 368,400 350,400 277,200 271,400 271,400 220,600 200,300 336,100 277,200 196,100 181,100 172,300 172,300 172,300 181,100 contained 48,300 56,600 32,300 58,900 Space Ltd. INVENTORY SPACE Completed: In Appendix HISTORIC Average Change Annual 58,900 34,200 20,300 14,300 19,200 18,000 11,320 11,780 (1 5,800 8,000 8,800 9,805 8,600 8,075 8,050 N/A F. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEVELOPMENT Cumulative PRIVATE 250,800 218,500 21 232,800 232,800 250,800 174,600 112,100 103,300 183,200 132,400 103,300 103,300 189,000 140,400 112,100 189,000 189,000 112,100 189,000 183,200 147,500 56,600 29,100 29,500 32,300 8,500 TRENDS SECTOR SPACE Average Change Annual 34,200 29,500 20,300 14,300 11,320 18,000 5,800 8,000 8,800 4,850 8,600 8,075 5,900 7,375 NIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1 68 Section & Office Space Demand Analysis
This section of the report reviews the historic and current office market in the City of Brockville as well as the warranted additional office space during the forecast period.
The Brockville Study Area
The delineation of a study area is necessary to undertake a market demand analysis for office space. The study area will enable us to focus the analysis on specific attributes and characteristics which will directly impact the success of future office developments. For this reason, we have confined the analysis to the office market operating within the City of Brockville itself. A more detailed description of the Brockville office market is presented in Appendix F.
Brockvffle Office Development 11ends
Table 21 traces the development of major office buildings in Brockville between 1971 and 1990. Buildings comprising in excess of 5,000 square feet gross office area and having as their primary function the provision of office facilities have been included in the inventory. The data summarized on Table 21 is based on the detailed inventory information presented in Appendix F.
The information provided on the left-hand side of Table 21 presents a cumulative summary of new office space constructed in the City of Brockville during each year since 1971. The total inventory includes both private and public sector office accommodation. For the purposes of this report, public sector space represents buildings owned and completely occupied by government agencies. The total existing space for 1990 is 368,400 square feet of which only 31.9% is public sector stock. The largest concentration of office accommodation is found in the Downtown area where
19 buildings (Appendix F, Buildings 1 through 19) total approximately 209,000 square feet or over 56% of the entire inventory.
69
The right-hand section of Table 21 presents the cumulative amount of private sector office space for historic years. By definition, the private sector space excludes nine buildings which are operated by government agencies and comprise a total of 117,600 square feet. Furthermore, it is this space which serves the needs of private business who will probably generate the bulk of additional demand for space in the future. Hence, the trend in development of Private Sector buildings is relevant to this analysis.
Since 1985, only two new private office buildings have been constructed in Brockville. Both of these were situated in the Downtown Area and include the Canada Trust building (#6) and the Boardwalk Condo building (#1). However, we understand that the bulk of the office space in the Boardwalk Condo facility (approximately 16,000 square feet) has remained vacant since its completion during 1989. Several reasons have been offered for this prolonged vacancy situation (through our discussions with local leasing representatives) including insufficient parking, accessibility problems and rents which are not competitive in the market.
The vacant space at the Boardwalk project along with significant amounts of 2nd and 3rd storey space in older downtown buildings which is unoccupied due to its deteriorating state and non-competitive nature, contributes to a significant supply of vacant space in the market. Through our discussions, vacancy levels in private buildings ranging between 15% and 20% have been indicated. This was substantiated by a preliminary vacancy survey conducted by the City Planning Department for this study during June and July of 1990. The results of that survey identified a vacancy rate over 15% in buildings for which information was available.
By comparison, a vacancy level of approximately 7.5% of total leasable private space is typically thought to represent a balanced office leasing market. Hence, some excess supply currently exists although the competitiveness of a significant portion of this available space is hindered by factors such as those cited above, eg. physical upkeep, accessibility, parking availability and rental rates.
70 TABLE
CiTY
Total Office Total
Average Brockville Less: Plus: SOURCE: Residual Periodic 3) 2) 1)
Additiona[:Spac&3;.:
office The Figure representing Larry
Estimated
Replacement
Warranted Warranted
Space
Existing
Cumulative OF
1990
Increase Annual
22:
Space
Smith
space
Population
is Larry
BROCKVILLE
expressed
Ratio
figure
at
Office
&
Smith Increase in
Office
a
1.5%
Associates
Space
market relation
(1
represents
Space
&
of
Space
in
Associates
space
(2
square
in
to
FUTURE
equilibrium.
the
Ltd.
vacant
in
existing
feet
estimate
existing
341,000 368,000
(27,000)
Ltd.
22,000
2,500
15.50
per
1990
space
WARRANTED
1990
person
private
based
I
which
373,500 368.000
Brockville
23,000
42,500
12,500
5,500
8,500 16.25
terms.
on
1995
sector
exceeds
an
evaluation
buildings
OFFICE
population.
408,000
368.000
24,000 40,000
47,000 65,000 25,000
the
9,400 17.00
2000
7.5%
annually.
of
SPACE
existing
443,500
368,000
1
factor
25,000
75,500 37,500 48,000
I3,0::163,O00J
9,600 17.75 ____
481,000
368.000
113,000
26,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
18.50
2010
71 The average annual amount of office space completed in Brockville has fluctuated as indicated by the data on Table 21. During the first half of the 1970’s, annualcompletions averaged 8,050 square feet per year. However, during the latter half of that decade a higher rate of completions was experienced, i.e. 11,320 square feet per year. During the first half of the 1980’sthe highest level of completions was achieved, reaching 11,780 square feet annually. However, development has slowed somewhat during more recent years. The slow down in construction since 1986, along with the significant amount of vacant space, suggests a relatively slow market exists at this time. During the entire historic study period since 1971, the average annual rate of office space completions is some 9,800 square feet. These past development trends are one indicator of demand levels for the future.
Within the City of Brockville, there is currently only one office building under construction. It is located on the north side of Laurier Boulevard (See Appendix A, Proposal A - Zoned and Approved Lands), and will comprise a 26,900 square foot office building to be completed by early 1991. The tenant for this building will be The County Health Unit which already occupies space at the 70 Charles Street (#31) premises as well as the Comstock Building (#22) on Emma Street. With the completion of this building and relocation of the Health Unit, new vacant space will come onto the market, ie. in excess of 10,000 square feet.
Brockville Warranted Future Office Space
The following paragraphs discuss the additional office space which will be warranted in the City of Brockville over the future study period. Our conclusions are based on an analysis of per capita square foot office space ratios presented in Table 22, as well as the historic trends cited above and our earlier overview of the Brockville local economic base.
The first line of Table 22 indicates the future population levels anticipated for the City of Brockville and discussed in Section 3. These forecast populations are multiplied by an office space ratio to determine the total warranted office space for Brockville in each
72 of the study years. The 1990 ratio of 15.50 square feet per person was derived by dividing the total occupied office space in Brockville by the 1990 population. A 1990 vacancy rate of 17.5% was applied to the total private sector space to derive the appropriate ratio for occupied space. We subsequently recognized a normal vacancy rate of 7.5% that was incorporated into the warranted space ratio for the current year. In the future, this ratio is forecast to reach 16.25 square feet per resident by 1995 and 18.50 square feet by the end of the study period. Table F-2 in Appendix F presents a list of comparable space ratio’s for other Ontario communities for comparison purposes. Our forecasts are reasonable in light of these comparables and the existing market conditions in Brockville.
The difference between the estimated total warranted office space and the existing inventory yields the residual space that could be absorbed within the City over the study period. As shown in Table 22, existing space currently exceeds market requirements as suggested by the relatively high vacancy rate. However, the analysis also reveals that a significant amount of additional space will be required in Brockville over the long term future.
Determination of new space requirements in future years, must recognize that with time, the existing stock of office space will require replacement for a variety of reasons. These include functional and physical deterioration of older structures, changing building trends and designs, amenities and other requirements of office tenants, as well as the determination of higher level uses or increased building densities at specific sites. We have estimated this replacement demand factor at 1.5% of the existing major private sector stock for each year. When this replacement demand is combined with the residual space demand, the total warranted additional space has been calculated at 18,000 square feet by 1995. This increases to 163,000 square feet by the end of the study period. The average annual increase in warranted space over the forecast period is consistent with the past development trends shown on Table 21.
It should be noted that the analysis does not recognize the significant amount of vacant space in the Downtown Area which is questionable in terms of its competitiveness on
73 the market. As indicated above, the competitiveness of this space may be questioned for reasons of physical repair or as in the case of the Boardwalk project, limited parking and high rents. To the extent that this vacant space could be considered non- competitive, the warranted amount of new space indicated by this analysis could be adjusted to compensate for this space. The forecast warranted space reflects appropriate per capita office space ratio’s for this market as well as our assumptions concerning local population and economic growth. However, it can not foresee the space demand that would result from the establishment of a major new enterprise in the City which is not currently located in the vicinity. Should a major new employer and office user decide to locate in Brockville, the results of this analysis should be reviewed in light of the changes caused by such a development.
74
______
TABLE 23: CITY OF BROCKVULE SUMMARY OF WARRANTED ADDiTIONAL COMMERCIAL SPACE
Category 1995 2000 2005 2010 DSTM Department Store 18,000 32,000 46,000 59,000 General Merchandise 5,000 7,000 10,000 13,000 Apparell Accessories 13,000 20,000 27,000 32,000 Household Furnishings 36,000 45,000 54,000 65,000 Drugs/Cosmetics 3,000 6,000 9,000 13,000 Other Specialty DSTM 11,000 18,000 23.000 30.000 ‘]t )5’1’M 86,000 128,000 169,000 212,000
Food Stores Supermarket 12,000 19,000 27,000 34,000 Specialty Food 12.000 15.000 ibtal Food 16,000 27,000 39,000 49,000
Services Eating & Drinking 18,000 29,000 38,000 49,000
Financial Institutions - 4,000 8,000 8,000 Personal Services 2. 6000 ibtal Services 20,000 37,000 52,000 65,000 ‘ibtal RetafliServic 122.000 192,000 260,000 326.000 Office Space 18,000 65.000 113.000 163,000
‘ibtal Commercial Space 140.000 257,000 373,000 489,000
SOURCE: Lany Smith & Associates Ltd.
75 SNOISfl’lDNOD UNV &LMJWfflS1OHHUNV1 1VIDRUINWOD 3WUAft4 dO LLN3YISS3SSV 6 NOUDHS Section 9. Assessment of Future Commercial Land Requirements and Conclusions
A. Introduction
The purpose of this section is to evaluate the commercial land requirements stemming from the preceding market demand analysis. Furthermore, suggested adjustments for the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law to accommodate these forecast commercial needs is provided.
Table 23 accompanying this section, summarizes the warranted space findings from the preceding analysis for the selected retail, service, and office space categories. Over the future study period, the additional commercial space warranted for these categories amounts to approximately 140,000 square feet by 1995, and almost 500,000 square feet by the end of the study period. Over the longer term this warranted space will be comprised of 326,000 square feet of retail/service space, and another 163,000 square feet of office space. A significant expansion of the current commercial inventory is therefore indicated by these findings. For instance, the new retail space warranted over the next twenty years will result in a 28% increase over the current occupied retail/service space inventory. Similarly, a 50% increase in the occupied office space inventory will result from the development of the warranted space shown on the schedule.
Several pertinent assumptions underly the findings of the market analysis cited on the schedule, including:
1. The analysis of warranted additional retail space conducted in this report reflects a forecast of reasonable future market conditions and expenditure capture rates for retail facilities in the City of Brockville. As such, this analysis represents a community planning exercise, or a general assessment of the future market support base for retail facilities in the City. We have therefore not attempted to evaluate any specific development proposals or concepts.
76 2. Since specific developments have not been evaluated, we have generally not considered the possibility of sales transfers which new developments could obtain from the existing retail inventory in this market. The assessment of transfer depends on the identification of a number of factors including specific location, accessibility characteristics, tenant profile, and overall project theme. The only exceptions to this point are found in the two food store categories, where very healthy average sales levels have been noted (see Item 3). In general, the average sales levels achieved by the retail groups in Brockville are reasonable in light of industry averages at this time.
3. In both the supermarket and specialty food groups, our analysis suggests that existing Brockville stores achieve very healthy sales levels, in excess of typical industry standards, Hence, in these two cases we have suggested that some transfer may very well be accommodated without infringing upon the economic well-being of existing stores in these particular groups. Naturally, the actual levels of transfer realized would be subject to the ability of new operators to effectively compete in this market.
The data on Table 23 for the two food store categories does not incorporate our assessment of reasonable transfer. However, a transfer level in the order of 5% to 10% of current sales support for the existing inventory, is typically believed to be reasonable in instances such as this. Hence, an additional 7,000 - 8,000 square feet of warranted space for the supermarket category may be reasonable for each of the forecast years. Similarly, an additional 4,000 - 4,500 square feet of specialty food store space may be reasonable over each of the forecast years.
4. The evaluation of warranted new retail space is somewhat conservative because we have not forecast the possibility of existing tenants relocating to new accommodation, for any number of reasons including the need for larger or more modern accommodations, improved accessibility, or better visual exposure.
77 5. The warranted retail space shown is to a substantial degree, subject to the ability of Brockville retailers to increase market capture rates from Secondary Zone residents. Hence, improved marketing and increased availability of varied merchandise lines will be required to reduce Secondary Zone outflow rates.
6. Over the long term, a new discount or promotional department store is indicated as being warranted in Brockville. The minimum space typically required by new stores of this type is in the order of 50,000 to 60,000 square feet. Given this space requirement, our analysis indicates this store will not be warranted on the basis of market residual before some 15 years into the future, depending on a number of uncertain factors including possible expansions to existing Brockville department stores, as well as the evolution of other forms of specialty store retailing. Hence, the space indicated for department stores during the short term, e.g. 18,000 square feet in 1995, will not be realized since it falls far short of the threshold size suggested above. A similar situation may evolve in the supermarket category, where limited market support is indicated before 1995.
7. It is very important to note that this analysis evaluates warranted space for only a portion of the business categories included in the Official Plan and Zoning By Law Commercial Categories. A very substantial number of business groups beyond those considered in this report, will probably require new commercial lands in Brockville over the future. A sampling of these categories will include automotive sales and repair, marine sales and repair, construction equipment sales and rental, hotel/motel space, machine shops, as well as the whole range of wholesale establishments.
78 TABLE 24: CiTY OF BROCKVILLE ESrIMATED RETALISERVICE SPACE LAND REQUIREMENTS (2010) AREAS OUTSIDE THE DOWNTOWN DISTRJC
A. rranted Retail Space Outside Downtown
City Warranted 2010 RetaWService Space (Sq. Ft.) 330,000 - 340,000(1
Share for Areas Outside the Downtown District (sq. ft.) @ 80.0% 265,000- 275,0001.
Warranted Space Outside Downtown Including Vacant (sq. ft.) @ 5.0% 280,000 - 290,000
B. C4 Land Requirement
Space Accommodated in Commercial Highway Zone (C-4) (sq. ft.) @ 25.0% 70,000 - 75,000
Required C-4 Land @ 25.0% Coverage (acres) 6.0 - 7.0 ac Adjusted C-4 Land Requirement 2(acres)( 8.5 - 10.0 ac C. Other Commercial Land Requirement
Space Accommodated in Other Commercial Zones (sq. ft.) 210,000 - 215,000
Required Other Commercial Land @ 25.0% Coverage (acres) 19.0 - 20.0 ac
Adjusted Other Commercial Land Requirement 2(acres)( 27.0 - 28.5 ac D. Total Adjusted Commercial Land Requirement Outside Downtown 35.0 - 40.0 ac
SOURCE: Larry Smith and Associates Ltd. 1) Includes additional space for Supermarkets and Specialty Food based on reasonable transfer estimates. 2) Adjusted by a factor of 30% to accomodate the need by the market place to provide a variety of potential sites in order to attract new business.
79 B. Estimated Commercial Land Requirements for RetalI,&rvice Space in Areas Outside the Downtown
The discussion which follows will provide a preliminary evaluation of the commercial land requirements for the warranted retaWservice space over the study period. Given the physical constraints such as vacant land availability, which limit development possibilities in the Downtown, the analysis focuses on land needs outside the Central Business District. In order to provide this preliminary assessment of land requirements, several assumptions have been made and are discussed below.
Downtown Brockvllle Share of rranted RetaiI,ervice Space
Part A of Table 24 provides the total warranted retail/service space in Brockville by the end of the study period, i.e. 330,000 - 340,000 square feet. This space includes an adjustment for reasonable transfer levels in the supermarket and specialty food categories given the strong sales performance of the existing inventory. We have subsequently estimated the portion of this space that could reasonably be accommodated in the Downtown Area. The Downtown share is estimated at 20.0% of the total warranted space and is based on a review of current proposals in the vicinity of the core area, as well as the availability of vacant land. Furthermore, concerns expressed in the current Official Plan for the continued health of the Downtown, have also been considered.
As indicated in Appendix A, there are currently four potential development sites in the Downtown Area which may include retail, service, or office space. The sites include:
1. The T. Dailey site (Proposal 12);
2. The Waterfront site (Proposal 13);
3. The P. Hoogendam site (Proposal J);
4. The Wachfree Construction site (Proposal K).
80 We understand that additional commercial space could possibly be developed at the Manitonna Hotel site, at several residential properties located along Water Street which are currently designated for General Commercial space, and the potential expansion of office space at the Municipal Trust building on King Street. Furthermore, preliminary plans for commercial space have been discussed in the past for the Arvic Realties site on Water Street but this parcel would require amendments to the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law.
The information available to us concerning these sites suggests that approximately 65,000 square feet, or 20% of the total warranted retail/service space in the City could be developed at these locations. By comparison, the Downtown presently accommodates 36.0% of total occupied space in the City. Furthermore, our consumer survey findings suggest that 29.2% of City-widelocal expenditures in DSTM, Food, and Eating/Drinking facilities presently accrue to the Downtown (Table B-5).
For the purposes of this analysis, we suggest it is appropriate that the remaining warranted space will be accommodated outside of the Downtown Area, i.e. approximately 265,000 - 275,000square feet. We have subsequently adjusted this space to reflect a vacancy rate in the order of 5.0%, which is considered reasonable for a major retail market. Hence, the total warranted space including a vacancy adjustment for areas outside the Downtown amounts to approximately 285,000 square feet.
Commercial Land Requirement Outside the Downtown District
Approximately 87.5 acres of land (in areas outside the Downtown) is presently zoned or designated in the Official Plan, for a commercial use. However, the bulk of this commercial land supply, i.e. 53.2 acres, is designated for Highway Commercial uses (see Appendix A). The Official Plan Review (Appendix G) indicated that the range of retail or service uses permitted for this type of land is relatively constrained. As outlined below, we have concluded that insufficient commercial land with the appropriate Official Plan or Zoning designation, exists to accommodate all of the long term warranted space identified by this study.
81 Part B on Table 24 considers the portion of the warranted space which could reasonably be accommodated on the Commercial Highway Zoned lands. The retail categories that would be permitted include large furniture stores and carpet warehouses, convenience stores, eating and drinking space, and a supermarket tenant. Based on an evaluation of the store categories considered in this analysis, we have therefore concluded that approximately 25.0% of the total warranted space, or some 70,000 to 75,000 square feet, could be accommodated on 0.4 lands. Assuming an average coverage factor of 25.0%, these facilities would require approximately 6.5 acres of land.
We have also recognized in Section B that the marketplace will typically require that a variety of locations be available at any one time, to satisfy the specific needs of individual retailers and service operators. We have therefore adjusted the Commercial Highway land requirement upwards by 30% to facilitate the efficient operation of the marketplace. This adjustment factor is by no means fixed, but represents an attempt to allow for some flexibility in the planning of a reasonable retail hierarchy for Brockville. Hence, we would suggest that approximately 8.5 to 10.0 acres of Commercial Highway land will be required over the study period, to accommodate the needs of the retail and service categories analyzed in this report.
It should be stressed that the full range of potential businesses appropriate for Highway Commercial zone have not been analyzed in this report. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that a significant amount of additional Commercial Highway land will be required in the future to accommodate these other users. Although we have not considered the requirements of these categories, it is our preliminary opinion that a more than adequate supply of Highway Commercial land is available to these categories.
Other Commercial Land Requirements
The remaining portion of warranted retail/service space, 210,000 to 215,000 square feet, will require Official Plan designations and zoning other than the currently defined Commercial Highway designation. As shown in Part C of the table, we have utilized
82 the same assumptions for site coverage and adjustment for market variety, to find that approximately 27.5 acres of other commercial land will be required over the entire study period in Brockville. This brings the total combined commercial land requirement outside the Downtown Area for retaWservice categories, to approximately 35 to 40 acres.
83 TABLE 25: CiTY OF BROCKVIILE ESTIMATED OFFICE SPACE LAND REQUIREMENTh (2010) AREAS OUTSIDE THE DOWNTOWN DISTRICT
City Warranted 2010 Office Space (sq. ft.) 160,000 - 170,000’
Share for Areas Outside the Downtown District (sq. ft.) @ 67.5% 110,000 - 115,000
Required Commercial Land @ 25.0% Coverage (acres) 10.0 - 11.0 ac
Adjusted Commercial Land 2Requirement( 14.0 - 16.0 ac
SOURCE: Lany Smith and Associates Ltd. 1) Includes allowance for a reasonable 7.5% vacancy rate. 2) Adjusted by a factor of 30% to provide a variety of potential sites for the marketplace.
84 Cl Estimated Commercial Land Requirements for Office Space in Areas Outside the Downtown
Table 25 considers the additional commercial land requirements, in a preliminary fashion, to accommodate the long term warranted new office space in Brockville. This evaluation is undertaken in a similar fashion to the retail/service land evaluation discussed above.
At the top of the schedule, the total City warranted space for the year 2010 has been indicated, i.e. approximately 165,000 square feet of new space. We have subsequently evaluated the portion of this new space which could reasonably be accommodated in the Downtown area of Brockville. Again, we have considered the information supplied us concerning available development sites in the Downtown area, as well as anticipated development plans for these land parcels. Furthermore, the historic function of the Downtown area as a major business concentration in the City, has been taken into consideration, along with concerns as expressed in the Official Plan, that the Downtown remain a healthy commercial area. It is noteworthy that the Downtown area currently contains over 57% of the entire City office space inventory.
For this analysis, we have estimated the Downtown share at 32.5% of future warranted space. Hence, the portion of space which could reasonably be expected for areas outside of the Downtown, is 110,000 to 115,000 square feet, or 67.5% of the future warranted new space. This estimate recognizes the considerations cited above, the need by office tenants to be located in premises which offer good accessibility and exposure characteristics, as well as proximity to an assortment of services and amenities which complement the office workers, and requirements of business.
The commercial land required to accommodate the warranted space outside the Downtown area, assuming a 25.0% coverage factor, amounts to approximately 10 - 11 acres. We have subsequently adjusted this acreage requirement to account for the market’s need to provide a strong variety of potential development sites for prospective business development. Our adjustment factor increases the required land by a factor
85 of 30%, yielding total commercial land requirements over the long term for office facilities in the order of 15 acres.
86 D. Conclusions
This evaluation of future commercial land requirements in Brockville reflects the findings of the preceding market analyses conducted for selected retail, service, and office space. As such, it is subject to the assumptions and evaluations specified in the report, and should be considered in light of the primary purpose of this assignment, i.e. the provision of market background data facilitating the City in appropriate formulation of Official Plan policy.
An effort has been made to recognize the traditional business function carried out in the Brockville Downtown area, as well as the Official Plan’s underlying objective to be sensitive to the needs of the Downtown, and ensure its continued vitality as a central focus in the life of the City. On the other hand, we have also been realistic in recognizing the needs of the development community if it is to provide the necessary facilities which will facilitate continued growth and development of the local economy. Given this background, the observations cited below should be evaluated in a flexible manner, and used as a benchmark for future Official Plan commercial policy making.
Overall Commercial Land Requirements in Areas of BrockvlfleOutside the Downtown
The preceding analysis shows that approximately 50.0 to 55.0 acres of commercial land will be required outside the Downtown Area to accommodate the long term warranted additional retail/service and office facilities identified in this report. Under current Official Plan and Zoning By-law definitions, we estimate that between 8.5 and 10 acres of Highway Commercial (C-4) land could accommodate a portion of the large space user retail categories. Hence, another 40 - 45 acres of land assigned commercial designations other than Highway Commercial, will be required in the long term.
At this time, the inventory of land situated outside the Downtown Area, which is zoned or designated for commercial uses, amounts to over 87 acres (refer to Table A-3). However, over 60% of this inventory is presently Commercial Highway land. The remaining 34.2 acres is distributed between General Commercial (17.4 acres), Industrial
87 Commercial (14.5 acres), and 2.3 acres of residential land currently being developed for the County Health Unit on Laurier Blvd. As suggested in Appendix G, Industrial Commercial lands are very constrained in terms of permitted retail, service and office uses. Hence, the 17.4 acres of General Commercial land fall well short of longer term requirements in the City. It should also be noted that over 6.7 acres of the General Commercial land is situated in the Swift Water Development parcel (Proposal L) which is also constrained in terms of permitted commercial uses.
A closer look at the vacant General Commercial land inventory, shows there to be 11 distinct sites, with the average size being just over 1.0 acres if we exclude the Swift Water parcel. Furthermore, the 11 properties are dispersed throughout the City, with 5 parcels located in the North End of the City, and another 6 located south of Highway 401. Recognizing the existing distribution of commercial space in Brockville, and the fact that new commercial development typically prefers being located in the vicinity of other major commercial zones, we would suggest a shortfall of suitably designated space may exist in the short term future. This will particularly be the case in the City’sNorth End, where most of the new commercial development has been focused in recent years. The degree of commercial land shortfall in any area will depend on the ability of the prospective developer to consolidate existing commercial parcels with adjoining lands, to create development sites with adequate exposure and accessibility characteristics.
Appropriate Forms of Retail and Service Space Development
The provision of the additional retail and service space identified through this analysis, must be undertaken in a timely manner with due regard for existing retail concentrations in the City, including the Downtown district. In conjunction with this point, future retail developments should strive to provide new and interesting forms of retail tenants, and in doing so strive to recapture the significant amounts of expenditures which currently exit the trade area for other major commercial centres. To simply provide additional facilities which are already found in the Brockville market, will not enable the City’s commercial sector to increase its level of market penetration into outlying portions of the trade area, as well as intercept travellers passing along
88 Highway 401. Furthermore, a duplication of existing merchants and tenants will simply redistribute and dilute existing expenditures in the trade area to the detriment of both existing and new businesses. With respect to extending the penetration of existing commercial facilities into outlying market areas, it is also important that existing commercial facilities such as Downtown merchants, continue in their efforts to be competitive in the local marketplace and respond to new forms of competition through innovative forms of marketing and merchandising.
Alternative Official Plan and Zoning Designations for Existing Commercial Land
Existing lands currently assigned a Commercial Highway or Industrial Commercial designation which offer superior access and visual exposure, as well as proximity to existing commercial concentrations, could be considered for an alternative designation such as General Commercial, or Shopping Centre Commercial, as appropriate.
Alternatively, spot zoning within existing Highway and Industrial Commercial areas could be utilized to broaden the permitted uses sufficiently to accommodate specific development plans, while maintaining the integrity of the original designation. For instance, the accessibility and exposure typically required by office space users may make an office development an appropriate use for a strategically located parcel with a Commercial Highway designation. The comparatively non-offensive characteristics of traditional office space development make it a relatively compatible form of development with a wide variety of adjacent commercial uses.
The long term opportunities cited in our analysis for a discount or promotional department store in Brockville, suggests that an additional Shopping Centre Commercial designation will be required. The ultimate size and configuration of this centre cannot be anticipated at this time. However, it would not be unreasonable to expect a centre in the order of 125,000 - 150,000 square feet, possibly built in phases and completed with a department store tenant during the latter portion of the study period.
89 Local Commercial Space Requirements
With the continued expansion of the City’s residential population, particularly towards the north and western portions of the City, additional Local Commercial zones may be appropriate to provide the convenience retail and service needs of the new population base. Commercial centres in the order of 5,000 - 10,000 square feet would be appropriate, although their number and locations will be contingent on future developments in the market. With respect to requirements in the City’sNorth End, the possibility of expanding the Kensington Plaza is another factor that will determine market requirements in this area.
Evolving Retail Industry lYends
The retail development industry will undoubtedly evolve over time and produce new forms of shopping facilities. These new projects will be designed to more effectively compete within a market area, capture reasonable shares of market expenditure potential, and fill retail niches which invariably develop over time. Furthermore, these facilities will be capable of accommodating new forms of retail outlets that will evolve over time.
A current example of a relatively new form of retail development can be seen in projects commonly referred to as “Power Centres”. These projects are intended to accommodate larger space users at sites which offer high degrees of accessibility and visual exposure to the travelling public. The types of stores accommodated in such a centre can range from large home furnishings tenants, to apparel outlets, recreation/leisure stores, entertainment facilities, and home improvement centres, to name a few. Many of the tenants in a Power Centre are destination oriented stores, and do not require significant cross-shopping or pedestrian flows such as those generated in traditional shopping centres.
Power Centres have evolved, for the most part, in the United States where the number of large potential markets and wide variety of prospective tenants support the concept.
90 Locally, the Oakville Town Centre project as well as the Dixie Value Mall in Mississauga are “Canadianized” examples.
This type of project is but one example of the manner in which the retail marketplace continues to evolve and meet new market opportunities. Other examples can be seen in the evolution of large warehouse stores sometimes known as Category Killers (eg. Toys R Us, Drug Warehouse stores and possibly Canadian Tire) and the Hypermarket (Loblaws Supercentre is a relatively close Canadian example). In either case, a highly visible site with strong access to a large market population such as a substantial metropolitan area is typically required to support the development. However, these examples suggest that to accommodate new forms of retail development and therefore provide Brockville trade area residents with a competitive selection of shopping environments and store types, an element of flexibilityis required of the Official Plan and Zoning By-Laws. As suggested above, this flexibility may come through increased use of spot zoning or designation of additional General Commercial or Shopping Centre lands, as the market continues to grow and becomes capable of supporting new forms of retail development.
Suitable Districts for Office Development
Businesses in need of office accommodation typically require space that offers strong accessibility and visual exposure characteristics. Furthermore, office functions usually prefer being located in the vicinity of other existing commercial zones. In this way, both the business and its employees can be in the vicinity of a variety of necessary services and other amenities. Furthermore, proximity to other businesses will facilitate interaction between enterprises, which is a necessary characteristic for a healthy and expanding economic base.
At this time, the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law permits business and professional office space in the General Commercial, ‘Mtterfront, and Shopping Centre Commercial districts. In addition, a very limited type and amount of office uses are permitted in Industrial Commercial zones. Depending on the future development of shopping centre
91 space, a portion of the warranted office development may be accommodated in the Shopping Centre zone. However, under the existing commercial definitions of the Official Plan, the bulk of the warranted space would require a General Commercial designation for strategically located sites.
As indicated earlier, an alternative to the General Commercial zone could be the broadening of uses in Highway Commercial districts, to permit office functions. Spot zoning of strategic sites could be used as a mechanism to facilitate this process. We would also suggest that consideration be given to broadening the type of office users permitted in Industrial Commercial zones. In many respects, a variety of office space users are a logical extension of the type of business activity performed in industrial zones. The provision of office space for users requiring proximity to traditional industrial enterprises could increase the efficiency with which business is conducted in the City. Frequently, these office users will provide necessary services to the major industrial enterprises in the vicinity. Furthermore, office accommodation can be made visually compatible with the local industrial environment.
92
APPENDIX A. INVENTORY OF COMPETiTiVE RETAIl/SERVICE SPACE IN THE TRADE AREA
Appendix A Inventory of Competitive RetalJ,ervice Space in the Trade Area
An inventory of competitive retail, service and vacant space in the Primary Zone defined for this report, ie. the City of Brockville, was conducted during the month of July, 1990. The results of this inventory have been summarized in Table A-i. The accompanying map indicates the location of the major competitive retail clusters listed on this schedule.
The inventory includes both comparison and convenience type stores. Comparison stores are those carrying merchandise lines which can vary significantly in terms of price, quality and variety. Consumers are inclined to shop at several similar stores before making a decision to purchase the item. Convenience stores are those which carry merchandise that is relatively standard in terms of price, quality and variety and frequently does not warrant spending a significant amount of time comparison shopping. Examples of convenience stores/services included in the inventory include specialty food stores; eating and drinicing facilities; financial institutions; liquor/beer/wine outlets and personal services.
The largest amount of inventoried space is in the household furnishings category, totalling 180,200 square feet and representing 14.8% of the total space. Other large groups include discount department stores, eating and drinking facilities and supermarkets.
The largest concentration of space is found in Cluster 1 (Downtown Brockville) containing over 460,000 square feet. Included in this total is 107,100 square feet of household furnishings space and 59,100 square feet of other specialty DSTM space. Another major concentration of space is in Cluster 3 (1000 Islands Mall) where over 271,000 square feet of space is found. This centre is the only enclosed shopping mall in the City and contains two of the three department stores operated in Brockville, ie. Sears and Woolco. The third department store is a Zellers which anchors Brockville Shopping Centre on the south side of Highway 401 at Stewart (Cluster 2). It is also
93 noteworthy that a substantial amount of strip retail space is clustered in the vicinity of 1000 Islands Mall on Parkedale and Stewart Blvd.
Vacant space in the Primary Zone totals some 63,800 square feet or 5.2% of the total inventory. A large portion of this space (44,900 square feet) is located in Downtown Brockville where the vacancy is significantlyhigher at 9.7%. Vacancy rates in the order of 5.0% to 6.0% are typicallyconsidered to represent a balanced retail market. Hence, the overall vacancy level for Brockville indicates the market is relatively stable at this time. In the case of the Downtown, over half of the vacant space (27,000 square feet) is situated in an older building formerly used by a furniture retailer. This space is on Water Street, removed from the focus of retail on King Street and therefore suffers from limited visibilityin the market. Furthermore, we understand that Official Plan and Zoning By-Law Amendments to permit residential condominiums on this site are pending. Hence, a far more reasonable vacancy situation exists in the Downtown when we recognize the effect of this space on the vacancy calculation.
Brockville Commercial I.and Proposals
In addition to the existing retail space discussed previously and the office inventory outlined in Appendix F, we have identified current proposals for new retail and office developments or commercially designated lands within Brockville. These developments are listed in Table A-2 according to their status and include:
• Current Applications for Rezoning; • Vacant Sites with Official Plan Designation; and • Zoned and Official Plan Approved Sites.
A total of 10.8acres currently have applications outstanding for rezoning to commercial purposes or have been considered in a preliminary manner for commercial use. The existing supply of commercial land includes 73.2 acres that are vacant and designated in the Official Plan as well as 20.2 acres that are both commercially zoned and Official Plan approved for a total potential commercial land supply of 93.4 acres. A portion of
94 the zoned and approved lands (proposals A, B, D, G & I) are presently being developed or construction has just been completed. Hence, 85.9 acres remain vacant and represent the potential future commercial land stock, i.e. either designated or zoned for development, at this time. The specific commercial designations are outlined in the description for each land parcel. Furthermore, a summary of these lands by Official Plan Designation is found in Table A-3. It is noteworthy that most of the lands, ie. 57%, are designated Highway Commercial.
The map accompanying Table A-2 indicates the location of these proposed commercial locations. A significant number of proposals are located north of Highway 401 in the vicinity of Stewart Boulevard. Only a few commercially designated or proposed sites are located in the downtown area recognizing that much of the land in the central business district is afready developed.
Secondary Zone RetaijlService Competition
Although a detailed inventory of retail/service space was not conducted in the Secondary Zone, it is necessary to recognize that significant retail concentrations operate in this area. The largest community other than Brockville within the defined trade area is Prescott, located approximately 20 kilometres to the northeast near Highway 401. Its main commercial concentration is located along Highway 2 in the central business area where Metropolitan and Stedman’s general merchandise stores are located as well as a Sears Catalogue store. A Mr. Grocer supermarket and an IDA pharmacy are also located in this area. A second commercial concentration in the Town is near the Highway 401 and County Road 18 interchange where a Canadian Tire and an IGA supermarket are found.
Further to the east of Prescott in the Town of Cardinal, a limited amount of retail/service space serves local population commercial needs. A Valu-Mart supermarket is the town’s largest and most dominant retail tenant. Other businesses include a bank, a liquor store and a jug milk store.
95 The Town of Spencerville is located in the northeast portion of the trade area on Highway 16. Commercial operators include several convenience stores such as grocery/jug milk outlets, a Royal Bank, a restaurant, and an antique outlet.
Finally, the Village of Athens is located in the northwestern portion of the Secondary Zone. Approximately 25 stores are located in this community including; Stedmans, Bank of Montreal, Pro Hardware, a Liquor Store, Freshmart (grocery store) and several jug milk stores.
In Table A-4 we have indicated proposals for new retaWservice development in the Secondary Zone. It is noteworthy that none of these proposals are significant in size and should have limited affect on the performance of Brockville commercial facilities in the future.
Other Significant RetaiIiervice Competition
In addition to Secondary Zone commercial concentrations, the consumer survey indicated that significant trade area resident expenditures are made at retail facilities in City’s and Towns outside of the trade area. Some of the outlying retaWservice facilities which influence trade area expenditure habits are briefly discussed in this section.
The City of Kingston is located 80 kilometres to the southwest of Brockville on Highway 401 and contains a large quantity of retail/service space. Major commercial centres include Cataraqui Town Centre with over 110 stores and a Bay and Zellers department store. In addition, Kingston Centre has 83 stores and a large Sears department store. Downtown Kingston also contains a wide variety of commercial establishments. Other department stores in the City include a single Woolco and K-Mart.
The Town of Smiths Falls is linked with Brockville via Highway 29 and is situated approximately 45 kilometres to the northwest. A single enclosed shopping centre of 134,000square feet gross leasable retail area is located in this community. The anchor
96 tenants of Smiths Falls County Fair Mall include a Zellers of 64,000 square feet and an A&P supermarket of 27,000 square feet. The other major retail concentration in Smiths Falls is the downtown area where large retail chains including Canadian Tire, Woolworth’s, Giant Tiger, Loblaws and Colour Your World are represented.
Another significant community in the vicinity of Brockvifle is the City of Cornwall located 75.0 kilometres east along Highway 401. Major retail/service centres within this City include the downtown Cornwall Square project with over 250,000 square feet of retail/service space. This centre is anchored by a Sears department store and a Steinberg’s supermarket. Three other significant shopping centres are present in this city, each anchored by a discount department store (Woolco, Zellers, K-Mart are represented).
Finally, trade area expenditure habits are also significantlyinfluenced by the large selection of retail space in the Ottawa region approximately 90 kilometres north of Brockville. Major concentrations of space include the downtown Rideau Centre with 1,175,000 square feet GLA as well as several regional shopping centres including Bayshore Mall (750,000 square feet), St. Laurent Mall (575,000 square feet), the recently expanded Place D’Orleans (over 700,000 square feet), and Carlingwood Shopping Centre (510,000 square feet). There are presently 14 traditional department stores operating in the Ottawa region representing Eaton’s, The Bay, Sears, and Robinsons’s. Another 17 discount/promotional stores can also be found, including K Mart, Woolco, Zellers, and Towers.
97
__ __
ij U .1
,.4 c -.. : .i:. . I
1 .
o -. . . . o / . ... —.—. a • .—, ,...... - 0 / . j • - . . K ( [ U : • N. L •.-._... . !;i..!i1/ i / 4 4; 1 . - . . - .
.. Qavs.1 j .1 . . ii •__ . -..., — . 4 — - — I -‘ \. - I ‘..-- ‘ - t . 1 I ..‘“. . . . - ‘‘ ‘.. I ‘ I •- -h - . —. -. ._1 •• .. . . - I ...-.. -_ . ‘ . \ : : I - !“ ‘ _ :. _-- •1 J__• - — a - I a I - “_3 •j ! _i’-. —
— \ I Ii- I /1 . i . .41•1!., 4. I I
.: : / _:
/
0 : I
/ Ii
TABLE A-i BROCKVILLE PRIMARY ZONE INVENTORY OF COMPETITIVE SPACE (1
CLUSTER NuMBERS 1 2 3 4 5 6 Other Other Total Brockville 1000 Parkedale Ave. Brockville Brockville Primaiy $ Downtown Shopping Islands and North of South of Zone Distribution Brockvillc Centre Mali Stewart Blvd. Hwy.401 Hwy.401 of Space
Supermarket 21,000 14,000 28,000 47,500 0 0 110,500 9.1% Specialty Food 700 l6. 3,700 57, 47% TOTAL FOOD 36,300 15,500 28,700 63,500 3,700 20,700 168,400 13.8%
Traditional Department Store 0 0 30,600 (3 0 0 0 30,600 2.5% Discount Department Store 0 45, (2 120,800 (4 0 0 0 16,000 13.6% TOTAL DEPARTMENT STORE 0 45,200 151,400 0 0 0 196,600 16.1%
General Merchandise 19,800 0 0 0 0 16,300 36,100 3.0% Apparel and Accessories 35,900 13,000 37,500 4,300 0 0 90,700 7.4% Household Furnishings 107,100 7,800 5,500 0 37,900 21,900 180,200 14.8% Drugs and Cosmetics 18,900 5,600 7,100 0 0 1,400 33,000 2.7% Other Specialty DSTM 59.100 8, 5, 6. 104,400 86% TOTALNON-DEPARTMENTSTOREDSTM 240,800 35,700 65,100 12,600 43,700 46,500 444,400 36.5%
Canadian Tire (5 17,500 0 0 0 0 0 17,500 1.4% Home Improvement 0 0 0 0 36,000 10,800 46,800 3.8% Liquor/Beer/Wine i2 2 2 9 9 TOTAL OTHER RETAIL 25,100 15,700 0 0 36,000 10,800 87,600 7.1%
Eating and Drinking 49,400 7,400 10,600 55,400 18,200 18,200 159,200 13.1% Personal Services 20,000 6,400 4,300 1,200 3,200 6,700 41,800 3.4% Financial Institutions 45. 5,100 4. 5000 0 0 48% TOTAL SERVICES 114,400 18,900 18,900 61,600 21,400 24,900 260,100 21.3%
TOTAL OCCUPIED SPACE 416,600 131,000 264,100 137,700 104,800 102,900 1,157,100 94.8%
VACANT SPACE 2, 3. 52%
GRAND TOTAL SPACE 461,500 134,500 271,500 139,700 107,300 106,400 1,220,900 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on a detailed inventoly of selected retail/service space within the City of Brockville conducted in July, 1990. 2) Figure excludes restaurant contained within the Zellers Department Store. 3) Figure excludes a hair salon contained within the Sears Department Store. 4) Figure excludes a Lady Foot Locker, a hair salon and a restaurant contained within the Woolco Department Store. 5) Figure includes service bay areas.
______
Ii i / IIIV I I II I -“ -I II II ICI . / ii I “—. / I I 1 ii I / II I / fi A II -‘ I tT \ 7’ II
• 4,‘// /1 / I II a — / C
P 1 tTI — C.., . --.-- • — 1 •..—. 1 . ii : - II
- ,• .•. •n....a.. I a. • £ I —--•---- ‘-7 9
. •;::t I-i -: •. •% •-,.• ;:r. •\,!o;Ff ,o?.’’-. \4 1! : :. .-
‘ - — -- C I / a ... —• .i:j F
[f -i • I • . I .1 ‘ ç * / I I
.\ ci.. I a
• : a - —. • Ib. —t —I — b CD CD N (10 (El 0 0 CD C)
• CD c. 11 rr
TABLE A-2 COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
Map icx Name/Location Details Current Applications for Official Plan Amendment/Rezoning
534499 Ontario Ltd. • proposed 13,000 square foot SIE Laurier Blvd. and Stewart commercial plaza on this 1.3 acre Blvd. site; • site currently zoned residential; • by-law amendment was approved but appealed by Kensington Plaza to 0MB.
B. Pimm Investments Ltd. • a three storey 42,000 square foot N/E Stewart Blvd. and Chelsea office building is proposed for this Street (485-491 Stewart Blvd.) 1.6 acre site (3 floors); • site currently zoned for residential purposes; • decision was deferred by council pending outcome of Commercial Land study.
C. 467875 Ontario Ltd. • proposed 8,000 square foot N/W Parkedale Avenue and funeral home with 2 apartment Stewart Blvd. (3040 Parkedale units on 2nd floor; Ave.) • property currently designated rural; • awaiting Ministerial approval; • site is 1.39 acres in size.
D. South side Central Avenue • proposed medical office building halfway between Strowger Blvd. of 25,000 square feet; and Perth Street • application has been withdrawn due to future economic outlook; • this 2.05 acre site is currently zoned industrial.
99 TABLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
E. M.C.S. Development Corp. • 3.3 acre site; N!E Stewart Blvd. and Brock • site currently zoned industrial Ml; Street • application was made for a flea market comprising 45,000 square feet; • proposal was deferred by PAC pending further analysis and a traffic study for the City; • more recent information suggests plans have been expanded to include a wider range of retail, business and office space.
F. Arvic Realties • tentative plans for unspecified S/W Water Street and Bethune commercial space in conjunction Street with a residential project have been discussed in the past; • site is 1.13 acres in size and would require O.P.A..and zoning amendment to change the current residential designation; • no recent activity shown for this project and status is uncertain; • no application outstanding at this time.
Vacant Sites with Official Plan Designation
T. Fournier • approximately 23 acres of vacant West side Stewart Blvd. north of land designated for Highway Parkedale Avenue Commercial use; • development status is uncertain.
2. Highland Golf Course • 10.25 acres are vacant and S/W Kent Blvd. and Parkedale designated for Highway! Avenue Commercial uses; • development status is uncertain.
100 TABLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
2A/2B/ Dodge/Dr. Perrin/Dodge • 2.25 acres are vacant and 2C. S/W Parkedale Avenue and Kent designated for Highway/ Blvd. Commercial uses; development status is uncertain.
3. Dodge Developments • 8.84 acres vacant and designated S/E Parkedale Avenue and Kent for Highway/Commercial uses; Blvd. • development status uncertain.
4. A&P • 2.75 acres vacant and designated S/W Jefferson Drive and Stewart for Highway/Commercial uses; Blvd. • immediately adjacent to Say-a- Centre store; • development status is uncertain.
5. Queen’s Grant Hotel • 2.0 acres vacant and designated S/W Parkedale Avenue and for general commercial uses; Stewart Blvd. • MTO holds frontage on Stewart Blvd.; • development plans unknown.
6. Alexander Stephen Kingston • 0.25 acre site designated general East side Windsor Drive, north of commercial; Parkedale Avenue • no plans known.
7. Brian Ferrier • 2.25 acres of land designated for Commercan Developments Corp. general commercial; NIE MiUWOOdAvenue and • 30,000 square feet of commercial Parkedale Avenue space is being considered for retail and office on two floors plus a freestanding module.
8. Pimm Investments • this 14.5 acre site is designated N/E California Avenue and for industrial/commercial uses; Parkedale Avenue • a hotel was at one time considered for the site; • awaiting further development information.
101 TABLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSAlS
9. Manufacturer’s Life Insurance • 0.80 acre vacant site designated N/W Central Avenue and Park for general commercial uses; Street • formerly was a parking lot for a former Dominion supermarket across the Street. • development plans unknown.
10. Centreview Properties • this 0.45 acre site is designated N/E Central Avenue and Park for general commercial uses; Street • development plans unknown.
11. Stonecliff Developments • a 1.8 acre vacant site designated S/W Park Street and CNR Line for general commercial uses; • development plans unknown.
12. T. Dailey • 0.70 acre site has zoning for S/E Home Street and King Street retail/office/apartment uses; • the existing building on this site would be torn down in favour of more intensive uses; • a commercial project with office and possibly retail uses totalling approximately 20,000 square feet is being considered; • subject to market demand.
13. South of Flint Street • 3.35 acre site designated for (Waterfront) Waterfront commercial; • office with some retail being considered; • a hotel/marina/office was once considered for this site; • currently the site is being cleared; • status of plans uncertain.
102 TABLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
Znned and Official Plan Anoroved Sites
Lanark, Leeds & Grenville • a 26,900 square foot 2-storey District Health Unit office building is under 458 Laurier Blvd. construction and will be (North side Laurier Blvd.) completed either at the end of this year or in early 1991; • it will be the Administration building for the County Health Unit when completed; • this site is designated Holding Residential and may eventually be rezoned to Institutional, according to the Brockville Planning Department; • a portion of the space at this tenant’s current premises, 70 Charles St. and the Comstock Building at 82 Emma Street, will be left vacant, ie. over 10,000 square feet.
B. Judi Ann Ltd. and Cadith • a 12,100 square foot Bingo Hall Entertainments Ltd. was completed during the Fall of 806 Chelsea Street 1990 (North side Chelsea Street, west • this site is designated for Highway of Stewart Blvd.) Commercial uses.
C. The Dodge Group • a Casey’s Restaurant and other 7772 Kent Blvd. highway commercial uses totalling (North side of Kent Blvd.) 18,000 square feet in two buildings are proposed for this site; • site plan approval has been given and completion is anticipated for 1991.
D. Sleep Inns • a 76 room motel on 2 levels 7789 Kent Blvd. totalling 27,100 square feet is (South side of Kent Blvd.) currently under construction at
103 T4BLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
this highway commercial site; completion 1991.
E. Canuck Properties • a 6,500 square foot gas bar with 2462 Parkedale Avenue general commercial space is (N/E Windsor Drive and proposed; Parkedale Avenue) • site plan approval is still pending, however, anticipated completion is sometime in 1991.
F. Joe Murano • a Bandito video outlet and a 2379 Parkedale Avenue Roadhouse Restaurant for a total of 8,200 square feet have recently received an OPA and zoning by law approval to proceed; • the site is zoned for General Commercial uses; • site plan approval is pending..
G. Centreview Properties • a convenience plaza for general N/W Reynolds Drive and Ormond commercial uses totalling 6,000 Street square feet has recently been completed; • as of mid-September 1990 35% of project was leased to a convenience store.
H. The Entity Group • a 3,500 square foot automotive 4 Stewart Blvd. service facility is proposed on the N/W Louis Street and Stewart Highway Commercial land at this Blvd. site; • site plan is approved; • timing unknown.
I. Arvic Realties • 2-storey office building of 15,000 S/W Brock Street and William square feet is under construction Street on this General Commercial site (early 1991 completion).
104 TABLE A-2 (Continued) COMMERCIAL PROPOSALS
J. P. Hoogendam • 0.30 acre vacant site designated S/W St. Paul & King Street general commercial for either retail or office uses; 26,000 square feet of space on two floors has been planned in the past; • development status is uncertain.
K. Wachfree Construction • proposed 3,800 square feet of East side Kincaid Street, across retaWoffice space in ground floor from Halliday Street of proposed seniors’ building; • the site is designated General Commercial; • site plan approval has been granted. • timing unknown.
L. Swift Water Developments Ltd. • limited commercial and industrial SJW North Augusta Road and uses on this 6.75 acre site are CNR Line proposed; • O.P. designation recently changed from Industrial to General Commercial; • Range of Commercial uses limited and to be phased over time, ie. up to 53,800 square feet by the end of 1994. Fashion merchandise, ie. apparel, shoes and jewellery, generally not permitted on the site; • Select IndustrialJWarehouse also permitted and presently occupy the site.
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd.
105
TABLE A-3 SUMMARY OF VACANT COMMERCIAL LAND IN BROCKVILLE (ACRES)
Official Plan Downtown Other Total % Designation Brockville Brockvllle Brockville Distribution
General Commercial 2.6 17.4(2 20.0 21.4%
Highway Commercial 53.2 53.2 57.0%
Waterfront Commercial 3.4 3.4 3.6%
Industrial Commercial 14.5 14.5 15.5%
Holding Residential’ 2.3 2.3 2.5%
Shopping Centre Commercial -
Total 6.0 87.4 93.4 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Land currently being developed for office space on Laurier Blvd. (Proposal A). 2) Includes 1.6 acres currently being developed (Proposals G & I). 3) Includes 3.6 acres currently being developed (Proposals B & D).
106 TABLE A-4 SECONDARY ZONE PROPOSED RETAIL DEVELOPMENTh(
Community Name/Location 1 Details
Town of Village Square • the owner of this existing Cardinal Shopping Mall strip plaza has purchased Highway #2 south of land immediately to west Highway 401 of site and is considering a small expansion; • existing tenants include a liquor store, deli, craft shops, etc; • size and status of proposed addition is uncertain.
Town of Home Hardware • this 20 acre site was Prescott Northeast corner of recently approved by the Churchill Road and 0MB for commercial Highway 18 zoning; • although no official application has yet been filed, a large Home Hardware Store as well as other uses may comprise this future development.
Town of Retirement Village • a 450 unit retirement Prescott Northwest corner of village is being considered town for this area; • some land has been set aside for a small commercial centre within this development. • no official application has been filed.
Township Coon’s Industrial Park • the official plan outlines of East side Highway 29, this area for a future Elizabeth- north of County Road industrial park; town 27 • required zoning not yet in place, however, a potential for 7,000 square feet of commercial space exists; • no specific proposals for this space have yet been filed.
107 TABLE A4 (Continued) SECONDARY ZONE PROPOSED RETAIL DEVELOPMENP’
Community Name/Location Details
Township Eastern Engineering • an application has been of Group submitted to rezone 8.82 Elizabeth- West side Highway 29, acres to Special Highway town north of County Road Commercial; 27 • proposed uses for the site would include a 20,000 square foot building supply centre and display area for prefabricated houses.
Township Township Industrial • A total of 9,100 square of Park feet of commercial space is Elizabeth- West side Highway 29 permitted in this existing town industrial park; currently only 1,600 square feet is built, the remaining space has site plan approval.
Township East side Highway 29, • application has been of north of Township submitted to the Township Elizabeth- Industrial Park Planning Department for town an Official Plan Amendment and rezoning to permit a mixed use development; • proposed arts and crafts space with an indoor market; • total size unknown.
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on discussions with the Planning Departments of the various towns and townships that comprise the Secondary Zone.
108
TABLE B-i SUMMARY BROCKVILLE LICENCE PLTh SURVEY BY TRADE AREA ZONES
ZONE NUMBER PERCENT
Primary Zone 159 46.9%
Secondary Zone .1ZJ. 35.7% Total Trade Area 82.6% Outside Trade Area 59 17.4% Total Survey Size ‘ 100.0% Unusable Plates (2 31 N/A GRAND TOTAL N/A
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Total number of usable addresses. 2) Includes duplicate plates, leased vehicles, corporate and government owned vehicles and incorrect plate numbers searched.
109 A3AW1S aLV’lJ HDMlDfl CMV AZTAUflSII3Nf1SNOD V31V aciva a xicmaaav Appendix B. Trade Area Consumer Survey and Licence Plate Survey
Two surveys were conducted during the month of July, 1990 for this study. Their purpose was to provide data which would outline the shopping habits and characteristics of consumers residing within the market area served by retail/service facilities in the City of Brockville. The first survey was an in-home telephone survey and the second was a licence plate survey conducted at the three major commercial centres within Brockville. These include Downtown Brockville, 1000 Islands Mall, and the Brockville Shopping Centre.
Licence Plate Survey
A licence plate survey was conducted in Downtown Brockvifle, 1000 Islands Mall and the Brockville Shopping Centre during July 5 and July 7, 1990. The purpose of this survey was to determine the geographic area from which consumers travelled to utilize Brockville retail facilities. This data aided us in defining a suitable market area for study in this report, i.e. the area including the population base which will provide the bulk of expenditure support for Brockville retail facilities. Licence plate numbers were noted as cars exited the commercial areas. Addresses for these consumers were then obtained from the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) and plotted on a map. The trade area for the City of Brockville recognizes this information as well as our understanding of the competitive retail framework in the vicinity.
A total of 360 licence plate numbers were obtained in a random fashion, split between the exit points for the two shopping centres and various parking facilities in the downtown during all shopping periods of the day. On conducting a search, it was found that 339 plates were usable for this analysis. The remaining addresses could not be found or were not registered to private individuals. The distribution of plate numbers between the trade area zones and areas outside the trade area has been shown on
110
______
. 1. SURVEY CELLS[v - -- J
/\ \\‘,A - 7A i- . f’T —1 KAS/f( N0RH\ ( .., - ‘“ \ ( II ‘ &, :B - j,md : - V / / . ‘ kqu / d_ LSk) S1.d \\ . 5 5—, c,_ S. ‘S V ,S.
C {SECONDARY.ZONE______5— ,,_-V .1 _SS’ jidi*1 SS /‘7/ pyb ., 5,
•S/ ti%./ \ - .. -\J-!J. - DENS8LJRG ,— Sr .—‘V•”, ‘-L’ L’ / ‘ ‘ SS\ ‘— ./X :Vc 54 7Ei-,. 31tRGSS q / r- •y-8 /L5M \?r z tr T
PRIMARY ZONE - I, J y frHARLUON F LA 0 A&E\\ //7 J H ,Iy LE / ç — y - 4- /1 LA 4 SOOWNE E’ F -Z- i:-=*. r \// ç LL ‘ itr4r LEE(3 L 1 U :‘ K / — / / A4 LRNSE odown / -;.-- ti1 : - r LEGEND - 4 I Trade Area/Zone Boundary 7Th/L •.... Proposed Road Improvement Consumer Survey Cell Boundary \f I , ii U - i
. - —‘k . — 2
TABLE B-2 CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS LOCATION OF RESPONDENTS’ RESIDENCE
Number of Survey Cell Respondents Percentage
Primary Zone 151 48.7%
Secondary Zone Cell 30 Ce112 45 Ce113
Total 159 51.3%
TOTAL TRADE AREA 310 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. TABLE B-3 CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS BASIC DATA
Sex of Respondent Number Percentage
Female 230 74.2% Male 25.8% Total 310 100.0%
Household Size Number Percentage
1 37 11.9% 2 121 39.0% 3 63 20.3% 4 57 18.4% 5 21 6.8% 6 6 1.9% 7 or More 0 0.0% Refused 1.6% Total 310 100.0%
Age of Respondent Number Percentage
Under 25 20 6.4% 25 to 34 70 22.6% 35 to 44 65 21.0% 45 to 54 48 15.5% 55 to 64 41 13.2% 65 and older 60 19.4% Refused 1.9% Total 310 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd.
112 A total of 82.6% of the shoppers reside within the defined trade area, suggesting an inflow amounting to 17.4% of the sample. This high inflow level is due in part to Brockville’s accessibility provided by Highway 401.
Our survey experience also suggest that the average amount of expenditures by consumers tends to increase with the distance travelled to the commercial centre. Hence, Brockville commercial facilities could achieve slightly higher inflow levels than indicated by the licence plate survey. However, this factor will be offset by the fact that the survey was conducted during prime tourist season for the 1000 Islands area, thereby yielding an inflow rate which would be higher then the average over the entire year. We have recognized these considerations and concluded that the trade area and inflow factor utilized for this report is a reasonable representation of the Brockville market area.
Consumer Survey
A consumer survey of 310 trade area residents was conducted during the month of July, 1990. The purpose of this survey was to determine current expenditure patterns of trade area residents in the store categories that were analyzed in this study. The telephone interviews were conducted by staff of Research House Inc., a professional survey firm. The design of the questionnaire, sample quotas and the summary of responses was undertaken by Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. A copy of the questionnaire and the summary of results accompanies this section.
Table B-2 summaries the geographic distribution of the consumer survey respondents. A total of 310 persons were interviewed in the trade area with 151 of these in the City of Brockville (Primary Zone) and 159 in the surrounding Secondary Zone. Recognizing the 1986 Census population distribution in the Secondary Zone, the area was divided into three survey cells, from which the respondents were selected on a random basis. The sample quotas established for the three cells were intended to ensure a spatially representative sample was achieved. These cells are illustrated on the accompanying map.
113 TABLE 13-4 CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTh EXPENDITURE DISTRIBUTION
UNADJUSTED RESULTS’
Total Outside Downtown Other Total Secondary Trade Trade Primary Zone Residents Brockville Brockvlfle Brockville Zone Area Area Total
Major Dept.Store 0.0% 66.6% 66.6% 0.0% 66.6% 33.4% 100.0% Junior Dept.Store 0.0% 95.5% 95.5% 0.0% 95.5% 4.5% 100.0% General Merchandise 51.5% 48.5% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Apparel/Accessories 64.4% 27.9% 92.3% 2.1% 94.4% 5.6% 100.0% Household Furnishings 39.1% 39.1% 78.2% 16.6% 94.8% 5.2% 100.0% Drugs/Cosmetics 66.2% 32.7% 98.9% 0.0% 98.9% 1.1% 100.0% Other Specialty DSTM 34.0% 62.1% 96.1% 2.8% 98.9% 1.1% 100.0% Supermarket 29.2% 70.8% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Specialty Food 10.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% Eating & Drinking 20.1% 75.5% 95.6% 3.2% 98.8% 1.2% 100.0%
Secondary Zone Residents
Major Dept.Store 0.0% 60.0% 60.0% 0.0% 60.0% 40.0% 100.0% Junior Dept.Store 0.0% 84.5% 84.5% 0.0% 84.5% 15.5% 100.0% General Merchandise 16.4% 30.9% 47.3% 33.4% 80.7% 19.3% 100.0% Apparel/Accessories 20.5% 32.5% 53.0% 7.9% 60.9% 39.1% 100.0% Household Furnishings 9.3% 11.0% 20.3% 19.1% 39.4% 60.6% 100.0% Drugs/Cosmetics 16.8% 28.1% 44.9% 30.3% 75.2% 24.8% 100.0% Other Specialty DSTM 12.6% 35.6% 48.2% 14.3% 62.5% 37.5% 100.0% Supermarket 13.8% 37.2% 51.0% 25.6% 76.6% 23.4% 100.0% Specialty Food 4.2% 68.3% 72.5% 16.5% 89.0% 11.0% 100.0% Eating & Drinking 9.5% 43.3% 52.8% 18.2% 71.0% 29.0% 100.0%
Total Trade Area Residents
Major Dept.Store 0.0% 62.4% 62.4% 0.0% 62.4% 37.6% 100.0% Junior Dept.Store 0.0% 89.4% 89.4% 0.0% 89.4% 10.6% 100.0% General merchandise 31.0% 38.0% 69.0% 20.0% 89.0% 11.0% 100.0% Apparel/Accessories 38.5% 30.3% 68.8% 5.6% 74.4% 25.6% 100.0% Household Furnishings 21.4% 22.8% 44.2% 18.2% 62.3% 37.7% 100.0% Drugs/Cosmetics 37.0% 30.2% 67.2% 17.7% 84.9% 15.1% 100.0% Other Specialty DSTM 21.4% 46.1% 67.5% 9.8% 77.3% 22.7% 100.0% Supermarket 19.7% 50.5% 70.2% 15.5% 85.7% 14.3% 100.0% Specialty Food 6.5% 77.2% 83.7% 9.8% 93.5% 6.5% 100.0% Eating & Drinking 13.8% 56.8% 70.6% 12.1% 82.7% 17.3% 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) As determined by the consumer Survey
114 Table B-3 indicates basic characteristics of survey respondents. The male/female ratio was preset by Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. to account for the fact that the majority of a household’s shopping is done by females. The questions concerning household size and age of respondent were asked to verify the randomness of the sample. These distributions represent a reasonable cross section of the local population for the purposes of this study.
Expenditure Distribution
The distribution of trade area resident’s expenditures between Downtown Brockville facilities as well as retailers in other Brockville, the Secondary Zone and outflow to retailers beyond the trade area boundary, is indicated on Table B-4. The basis for this information is the findings of the consumer survey conducted for this report. It indicates that City of Brockville retail facilities capture a substantial share of the total expenditure potential available from trade area residents. However, significant levels of outflow to facilities beyond the trade area are also evident, particularly for expenditures by Secondary Zone residents. The comparison store categories, especially the household furnishings and apparel/accessory groups display the highest levels of outflow for the trade area.
The largest amounts of trade area outflow were directed to larger urban counties in the vicinity,eg. Ottawa and Kingston. It is noteworthy that relatively small amounts exit the province to Quebec or U.S. destinations. For instance, the greatest amounts of out-of- Province expenditures by Secondary Zone residents occurred in the Eating/Drinking (2.9% of total expenditures) and Apparel groups (2.4% of total expenditures).
City of Brockville Sale Performance by Major Store Group
Table B-S utilizes the consumer survey results along with our evaluation of the competitive inventory to calculate estimates of sales per square foot performance by Brockville stores for major store categories. The percent distribution of expenditure levels provided in Table B-4 are applied to the total trade area expenditure potential
115 ______
TABLE B-5: SALES PER SQUARE FOOT FOR RETAIL FACILiTIES BASED ON THE CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS
Trade Downtown Brockville Market Share Other Brockville Market Share Total City of Brockville Store Area Category Potential !g:!i $perSq.Ft. q..EL $perSq.Ft. $perSq.Ft. (S Millions) DSTM
Major Department Store $15.7 0.0% $0.0 0 nla 62.4% $9.8 30,600 $320 62.4% $9.8 30,600 $320 Junior Department Store $17.0 0.0% $0.0 0 n/a 89.4% $15.2 166,000 $92 89.4% $15.2 166,000 $92 General Merchandise $10.0 31.0% $3.1 19,800 $157 38.0% $3.8 16,300 $233 69.0% $6.9 36,100 $191 Apparel $23.4 33.0% $7.7 35,900 $215 35.8% $8.4 54,800 $153 68.8% $16.1 90,700 $177 Household Furnishings $30.3 24.0% $7.3 107,100 $68 20.2% $6.1 73,100 $84 44.2% $13.4 180,200 $74 Drugs $19.2 37.0% $7.1 18,900 $376 30.2% $5.8 14,100 $411 67.2% $12.9 33,000 $391 Other Specialty DSTM $23.4 30.0% $7.0 59,100 $119 37.5% $8.8 45,300 $194 67.5% $15.8 104,400 $151
Total DSTM $139.0 $32.2 240,800 $57.9 369,600 $90.1 610,400
FOOD
Supermarket $65.0 19.7% $12.8 21,000 $610 50.5% $32.8 89,500 $367 70.2% $45.6 110,500 $413 Specialty Food $21.5 10.5% $2.3 15,300 $148 73.2% $15.7 42,600 $369 83.7% $18.0 57,900 $311
Total Food $86.5 $15.1 36,300 $48.6 132,100 $63.6 168,400
Eating & Drinking $34.7 13.8% $4.8 49,400 $97 56.8% $19.7 109,800 $180 70.6% $24.5 159,200 $154
GRAND TOTAI $260.2 20.0% $52.1 326,500 48.5% $126.1 611,500 68.5% $178.2 938,000
1% Distribution of Expenditure 29.2% 7o.8%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) As determined by the results of the consumer survey. Some results have been adusted slightly based on our evalution of the Brockville inventory. to yield market shares for each category. The inventoried space is subsequently applied to the market share volumes to yield sales per square foot performance levels. It is noteworthy that inflow expenditures from non-trade area residents have not been incorporated into this analysis. Furthermore, minor adjustments to the percent market share levels provided by the survey results have been made on this schedule to reflect our evaluation of the competitive inventory.
Based on our experience in the planning of major retail facilities as well as review of community retail profiles, we have concluded that the average sales performance for Brockville retailers are reasonable for most store categories. Furthermore, the average sales performance for the supermarket and specialty food categories exceed, to a limited degree, our expectations for reasonable sales performance levels. Conversely, the household furnishings group displays an average sales level which is somewhat below expected average sales levels for the market.
117
A.
B.
We
IF Good
few
INTERVIEWER
SUPERVISOR: Time
Community: Address:
Miss Mrs
Mr.
NEITHER
are
questions.
No
Yes
Are In
______
conducting
Started:
[ [
[
the
you
[
[
AVAILABLE,
3
3
3
LAST
RECORD:
3
______
] the ______
______--->GOTOQU
.
IF First
-
THREE
->
female/male ______[
a
I
YOU
TERMINATE
survey
am
Name
TERMINATE
HAVE MONTHS,
______
[Jam
of
CHECKED
Secondary
Secondary
Primary Interview
______
head
la
J
INTERVIEW
people’s
have
pm
INTERVIEW
IN
Surname
of
EACH
Zone
you
HOME
household?
Zone
Zone
completed
of
shopping
BROCKVILLE
AND
done
PAGE,
SHOPPERS
AND
Research
Sampling
RECORD
any
RECORD
Time
INITIAL Date:
Postal
Phone
in:
habits
shopping
SURVEY
Female
House,
Finished:
Area:
(CIRCLE
#
Code: HERE:
______
and
[
whatsoever?
a
I ONE)
______
market
3 would
______[
Male
like research
______
[
[
3
to
2
1
(Watch
3pm
Jam
ask
company.
No.
118
you
Quota)
{J a
ic)
ib)
la)
OTHER
EATON’S
EATON’S
ROBINSON’S-OGILVY’S
RO8INSON’S-OGILVY’S
ROBINSON’S-OGILVY’S
SEARS
SEARS
SEARS
THE
THE
THE
THE
SEARS
THE
SEARS
Cu.
STORE)?
During
OR
the
give
What
you
Robinson’s-Ogilvy’s
Excluding
SPECIFY).
BAY
BAY
BAY
BAY
BAY
lb
name
shopped
(SPECIFY)
WAREHOUSE
me
is
the
HOME
Name
the
the
of
any
PAST
the
name
name
STORE
at
of
a
Store
THREE
Community.
of
of
MAJOR
order
the
the
or
Bavshore,
Rldeau
Lincoln
Billinos
Walklev
Rldeau
Carilnawood.
St.
ShoDoers
St.
Downtown
Kingston
Bavshore.
Cataraoui
1000
MONTHS,
Sears?
DEPARTMENT
department
shopping
Laurent.
or
Laurent.
Cu.
Islands
Centre.
Centre.
(DO
catalogue
Heights.
Road.
Bridge.
approximately
City/East.
Ottawa
Centre,
Ottawa
lb
Ottawa
Town
NOT
centre
Location
Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa
STORE
Mall.
Ottawa
store
Ottawa
Ottawa
READ
Centre.
-2-
Ottawa
Ottawa
shopping,
Kingston
or
such
Brockville
LIST
or
Ottawa
two
how
stores
Kingston
as
BUT
closest
much
Simpson’s,
in
CIRCLE
and
No...
Yes..
just
did
where
intersecting
.2
.1
the
you
APPROPRIATE
1 1
I 1
r
1435
1434
p338
1338
1334
1138
1137
1136
1238
1236
1234
p235
1132
23I
r102
Eaton’s,
(SKIP
(GO
PAST
spend
is
1$
iS
iS
15
1$
Cu.
1
1
1
1
1
1
TO
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
it
TO
THREE
$
S
$
$
S
$
$
$
S ib)
$
S
S
$
$
S
ic
at
located?
streets
2a)
The
CODE(S)
Amount
(NAME
119
MONTHS
Bay,
OF
and
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
Spen
.00
Just
.00
.00
BELa’
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00 hay
2c)
2b)
2a)
OTHER
M
N TOWERS
TOWERS TOWERS
K-MART
K-MART
K-MART
K-MART
ZELLERS
ZEILERS
ZELLERS
ZELLERS WOO
ZELLERS WOO
WOOLCO
ZELLERS
K-MART WOO
ZELLERS
WOOLCO
Ou. OR
STORE)? give
During What
the
STORE
In
STORE
STORE
LCO
LCO
LCO
SPECIFY). just
2b
name
me
is
(SPECIFY)
such
the
Name
the the
the
of
PAST
as
Merival
Merivale
Hazeldean
Bayshore. Shoooers St.
Cvrville
Herongate.
Bells
Blossom
Beacon Carl Merivale
SDarks
Pinecrest.
Lincoln Cataragui
K-Mart
Place Brockville
Frontenac
the name
1000
name
PAST
of
K-Mart,
Laurent
ingwood.
ThREE
Store
Community.
of of
THREE
Islands
Corners.
D’Orleans.
e Hill.
St./Downtown
Plaza.
Heights.
Park.
the the
City
RoaOttiwa_ Road. Road.
Mall.
Ottawa
Mall,
Town
Mall,
MONTHS,
Woolco,
Ottawa
Ottawa
S.C..
MONTHS
Blvd..
department
shopping
Ottawa Ottawa
Mall.
West.
Ottawa
Kingston
Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa
Ottawa
Centre.
Ou.
Kanata
Kingston
(DO
Ottawa
Ottawa
Brockvllle
approximately
Towers,
have
Ottawa
2b
Brockville
Ottawa
Ottawa
NOT
centre
location
Kingston
you
store
READ
-3-
or
shopped
or
or
Zellers?
LIST
two
how
stores
BUT
closest
at
much
1938
CIRCLE
a
I
I 1838
r 1935
r 1838 1838 1738 1638
1738 1637
1738 1738
1638
1638
1634 1538 1604
1538 1538 No...
1733
1631
1533 1502 Yes..
and
JUNIOR
did
Ou.
where
intersecting
1$
1$ 1$
1 1
1$ 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1
1
1 1
1
1
1 1
1 1
1 1
.2 .1
you
APPROPRIATE
$
$
$ S $
$ $
$ S $
$
S
$
$ S
S
$ $
$ $ S
2c
OR
(SKIP
(GO
spend
is
Amount
DISCOUNT
TO
it
TO
2b)
at
located?
3a)
streets
Soent
CODE(S)
.00
.00
.00 .00
.00 .00 .00
.00 .00 .00 .00
.00 .00
.00
.00
.00 .00
.00
.00 .00
.00 .00
.00
.00
(NAME
.00
DEPARTMENT
120
OF
and
Just BELOW
4c)
4b)
4a)
3c)
3b)
3a)
Ou.
During What
STORE)?
PLEASE
FOR v)
iv)
111) MONTHS
ii)
i)
Excluding
Ou.
STORE)?
During What PLEASE
______
such
In
4b
just
A
EACH
3b
A
A
is
A
A
as
is
fabric
the
ENSURE
shoe men’s
ladles
unisex
have
the
Name ENSURE
the
Name
the
BiWay,
the
STORE,
department
PAST
PAST
name ______
store?
you
name
of
PAST
or
wear
of
THE
or
or
THE
Store THREE
ASK
wool Bargain
shopped
Store THREE
of
children’s
family
of
COMMUNITY THREE
store?
COMMUNITY
QLJ.
the
the
shop?
stores
MONTHS,
MONTHS,
Haroids,
MONTHS,
4b
store
apparel
at
store
Ou.
and
any
Ou.
NAME
wear
and
NAME
approximately
or
approximately
or
4b
4c.
of
3b
have
store? general
Giant
stores
IS
store?
stores
IS
Location
the
Location
INDICATED).
you
INDICATED.)
.4-
following
Tiger,
and
merchandise
and
shopped
where
how
where
how
Woolworths
much
APPAREL
much
at
No
Yes...
is
is
I
I
I No...
I I
r No...
r I Yes..
Yes.. No...
Yes.. No....2
Yes..
No...
Yes..
I
I
r
r
a
stores,
did
it
did
it
GENERAL
Ou.
Qu.
15
is
iS 15 is
iS
iS
iS located? .1
.2
.1
AND
.2
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
1$ is
15
1$
located? 2
you
or
you
4c
(SKIP (GO
(SKIP
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
3c
a
(SKIP
(GO
ACCESSORIES
In
spend
spend
Amount
MERCHANDISE
variety
Amount
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
just
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO TO
TO
(INTERVIEWER,
4b)
4b)
(INTERVIEWER, 4b)
4b)
4b)
3b)
at
at
5a) v)
iv)
iii)
the
Ii)
4a)
Soent
Soent
.00 store?
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00 (NAME
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
(NAME
121
PAST
stores?
STORE
OF
OF THREE
6c)
6b)
FOR
6a)
5c)
5b)
FOR
5a)
EACH
EACH
Ou. What
STORE)?
During
PLEASE
v)
During
iv)
iii) I) FURNISHINGS
ii)
Ou. STORE)? During What
PLEASE
vi) v)
iv)
During
iii) STORES?
ii)
1)
6b
STORE,
5b
STORE,
A
A
or A
centres? A A
excluding
is
interior
A
An
is A
A
A
A
the
ENSURE
picture,
lighting, TV,
hardware,
furniture the
the
ENSURE
garden
jewellery,
sporting
camera,
card,
the
Name
the
bath
Name
the
art,
PAST ASK
stereo
PAST
ASK
PAST
PAST
name
stores?
name
of
and
of
craft
stationary,
THE
decorating
THE
centre
(U.
Canadian
QU.
photo
Store
SIX
china,
SIX
THREE
Store
goods,
THREE
of
linen
or
carpet,
store,
of
COMMUNITY
shop
COMMUNITY
gift,
6b
5b
or
MONTHS,
the
paint MONTHS
the
or
or
AND
MONTHS,
AND
hobby
MONTHS
kitchenware
or
shop?
toy
store
Tire
or
Consumer’s
store
luggage,
optical
antique
store?
book
6c.
and
record
5c.
Qu.
appliance have
Qu.
or
NAME
approximately
NAME
store?
and
have
wallpaper
or
approximately or
pet
shop
6b
Sb
you
store?
stores
home or
IS
store?
stores
IS
or
location
Location
store?
you
Distributing?
or
INDICATED). other
shopped
INDICATED).
souvenir
store?
-5-
improvement
florist?
shopped
and
store,
and
how
where
•
in
where
how
shop?
much
at
any
much
any
is
is
did
I Yes.
r No... Yes..
r r Yes.. No... No...
I I No... No...
Yes.. of
Yes..
I
I
r
I
I
I No... Yes..
Yes.. No...
I No...
No...
Yes..
No...
Yes..
Yes..
No.. Yes..
it
did
it
of
the
you
Ou.
..1
Ou.
1$
..2
1$
1$
lS located?
1$
1$
.2 .2 .2 1$
.2 1$ 1$
.1
.1 .2 lS
.1 .1
1$ 1$
1$
located?
.2 .1
.1 .2
.2
.2
.1
the
.1
.1
.2
.1
you
following
6c
spend
(GO
(GO (SKIP
(SKIP (GO (SKIP (GO
(GO
(GO (SKIP
5c
(GO (GO (GO (SKIP
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
(SKIP
(GO
following
spend
Amount
Amount
TO
TO TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
TO
at TO
TO
TO
TO
(INTERVIEWER,
TO
TO
TO
TO
6b)
6b) 6b)
7a) 6b)
6b)
6a)
5b)
vi)
Sb)
5b)
(INTERVIEWER, 5b)
5b)
5b)
at
HQLE
v)
iii)
iv)
(NAME
ii)
v)
iv)
iii)
ii)
Soent
Soent
.00
.00 .00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00 .00
.00
.00
(NAME
SPECIALTY
OF
122 OF
8c) 8b)
FOR
8c)
8b)
Ba)
FOR
7c)
7b)
FOR
7a)
EACH
EACH
EACH
Ou. During What
PLEASE
What
Ou.
11) During
PLEASE
OTHER
I)
In
NO
VALUMART
SAVE
STEINBERG’S
Qu. What
LOEB
During
BUT
In
just
FRILLS
just
8b
STORE,
8b
STORE,
7b
CIRCLE
STORE,
A
Is
jug
A
is
A
IGA
is
(SPECIFY)
the
drug
ENSURE
the
ENSURE
specialty
CENTRE
the
Name
the
Name
the
the
Name
the
the
milk,
ASK
PAST
ASK
PAST
APPROPRIATE
ASK
PAST
name
store
name
PAST
name
PAST
of
of
of
THE
THE
Brockville Stewart/Jefferson
Downtown
Parkedale
1000
QU.
green
QU.
Q!J.
MONTH,
Store
MONTH,
Store
MONTH,
Store
of
of
MONTH,
food
of
MONTH
COMMUNITY
or
COMMUNITY
8b
8b
Island
lb
the
the
the
drug
grocer
ANt)
AND
store
and
approximately
approximately
Brockville
CODE(S)
approximately
have
store
store
have
Avenue/Windsor.
store
Sh000inQ
8c. warehouse?
Bc.
Mall.
7c.
Qu.
Ou.
Ou.
NAME
NAME
or
such
you
you
or
or
or
8b
8b
candy
7b
OR
&
Brockville
shopped
stores
IS
stores
IS
as
shopped
stores
Location
Location
Centre.
401.
SPECIFY
Location
INDICATED).
INDICATED). Valdis,
how
how
&
how
-6-
nut
Brockvllle
and
and
Brockville
and
at
much
much
in
much
Brockvllle
BELOW).
store?
a
where
where
the
a
where
No... Yes..
No
Yes...
SUPERMARKET?
did
did
No
Yes..
bakery,
did
following
you
.2
.1
you
is
is
you
Is
.1
..1
2
r
r r
r
I
I
I
r
(SKIP
(GO
it
it
2
I
I
I
5O4
f303
4O3
rioi
2O2
it
spend
meat
spend
spend
Qu.
Ou.
(SKIP
(GO
Ou.
located?
located?
located?
TO
15
1$
15
is
1$ 1$
1$
1$
(SKIP
(GO
convenience
1$
1$
1$
1 1
1
1
1
TO
8c
TO
8c
market,
7c
7b)
at
at
at
TO
TO
S $
$
$
$
Ba)
Amount
Amount
8b)
Amount
(NAME
TO
(NAME
(NAME
9a)
8b)
(INTERVIEWER,
(DO
(INTERVIEWER, Ii)
delicatessen,
OF
Soent
OF
Soent
Soerit
OF
NOT
stores?
.00
.00 .00 ,oo
.00
.00 .00
.00
STORE)?
STORE)?
.00
.00
.00
.00 STORE)?
.00
.00
.00
.00
READ
123 LIST
A.
B.
others
BASIC
Finally,
9c)
9b)
FOR
9a)
EACH
How
In
Ou.
During
RESTAURANT)?
What
ENSURE
ii) beverage
I)
In
DATA
we
which
Just
many
1 these
9b
STORE,
get
Other A
centre
Is
and
the
THE
fast
Name
the
the
of
2 people
In
unlicenced
estabi
last
ASK
COMMUNITY
PAST
restaurants
the
this
name
fast
food
PAST
of
3
questions
QU.
i
following
are
MONTH,
Facility
shments?
survey.
of
establishment
food
MONTH
THANK
Refused
or
35-44
55-64 45-54
25-34 Under
4
9b
living
the
facilities?
NAME
65
AND
court?
approximately
including
5
facility
have
YOU
and
25
will
age
9c.
IS
in
FOR
over
6
Du.
you
INDICATED).
groups your
help
or
YOUR
9b
and
both
spent
7
a
home?
us
or
Location
shopping
are
where
how
TIME
-7-
classify
licenced
more
any
you?
much
(CIRCLE)
AND
is
money
(READ
did
it
COOPERATION
your
8
refused
located?
at
you
No....2
Yes..
No...
Yes..
LIST
answers
r
r
r
r f
I
the
spend
.1
following
.1 .2
-
is
is Ou.
is
1$
1S lS
______
(INTERVIEWER,
CIRCLE)
(GO
(SKIP (SKIP
(GO
and
at
9c
TO
(NAME TO
compare
Miount
TO
TO
7 4
6 3
5
2
1
9b)
9b)
food
A.)
11)
OF
Soent
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
and
them
124
PLEASE with
686101 1861 S3UflUCItsfldXH MI RJSOUI) 1VHH D XIUN3JJV
Appendix C.
Real Growth in Expenditures 1981 to 1989
In order to estimate future expenditure increases in DSTM, food and eating/drinking for trade area residents, we have analyzed the historic real growth or decline in consumer expenditures for these types of commodities between 1981 to 1989.
Real Growth in DSTM Expenditures
Table C-i compares the annual growth rate for DSTM expenditures in the Province of Ontario with the annual inflation rate as measured by the Ontario (weighted average of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay figures) Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items less food and energy. The difference between the annual growth in total per capita DSTM expenditures and the change in the consumer price index provides a measure of the real growth in consumers’ expenditures.
Except for the decline between 1981 and 1982,which can be attributed to the impact of the economic recession that affected the Canadian economy in the early part of the 1980’s,expenditure changes have exceeded the inflation rate, until recently. In 1988 and again in 1989 we see that growth in DSTM expenditures dipped slightly below the inflation rate. However, the real growth in DSTM expenditures has averaged 2.1% over the 1981 to 1989 period. For the purposes of this study, real growth for future years has been estimated at 1.5% per year.
Real Growth in Food Store Expenditures
In Table C-2, we have calculated the real growth in food store expenditures based on the annual growth rate in per capita food store expenditures for the Province of Ontario and the inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index for food consumed at home.
Real growth in food store expenditures has varied from year to year over the 1981 to 1989 period. It has ranged from an increase of 3.3% in 1982 to a decrease of 2.9% in
125
1984. Over the historic period analyzed, expenditures have increased in real terms at an average of 0.9% per year. For the purposes of this report, real growth has been estimated at a conservative 0.5% per year over the forecast period.
Real Growth in Eating and Drinking Expenditures
A similar analysis has been undertaken in Table C-3 to determine the real growth in eating and drinking expenditures. The CPI index used is for food purchased from restaurants.
The table shows Ontario residents reduced their real expenditures (after inflation is accounted for) between 1981 and 1983. However, in recent years eating and drinking expenditure changes have been greater than inflation. During the period 1981 to 1989, the average real increase has been 3.8%. For the purpose of this report, real growth has been forecast at 1.5% per year.
126
TABLE C-i: DSTM REAL GROWTH IN EXPENDITURES — PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
Consumer Per Capita DSTM Percent Price Percent Real Year Expenditures (1 Change Index (2 Change Growth
1981 $1,396 100.0 1982 $1,443 3.4% 111.1 11.1% —7.7% 1983 $1,598 10.7% 118.2 6.4% 4.3% 1984 $1,692 5.9% 123.1 4.1% 1.8% 1985 $1,884 11.3% 128.3 4.2% 7.1% 1986 $2,087 10.8% 135.9 5.9% 4.9% 1987 $2,288 9.6% 143.8 5.8% 3.8% 1988 $2,411 5.4% 151.9 5.6% —0.2% 1989 $2,502 3.8% 162.2 6.8% —3.0%
1981 to 1989 average 9.9% 7.8% 2.1%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63—005). 2) Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indices (publication 62—010). Consumer Price Index is for all items excluding food and energy. Represents a weighted average of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay.
127
TABLE C-2: FOOD STORE REAL GROWTH IN EXPENDiTURES — PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
Per Capita Consumer Food Store Percent Price Percent Real Year Expenditures (1 Change Index (2 Change Growth
1981 $1,042 100.0 1982 $1,144 9.8% 106.5 6.5% 3.3% 1983 $1,207 5.5% 111.0 4.2% 1.3% 1984 $1,262 4.6% 119.3 7.5% —2.9% 1985 $1,315 4.2% 121.1 1.5% 2.7% 1986 $1,384 5.2% 126.2 4.2% 1.0% 1987 $1,447 4.6% 131.8 4.4% 0.2% 1988 $1,488 2.8% 134.9 2.4% 0.4% 1989 $1,531 2.9% 140.0 3.8% —0.9%
1981 to 1989 average 5.9% 5.0% 0.9%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63—005). 2) Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indices (publication 62—010). Consumer Price Index is for food purchased from stores. Represents a weighted average of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay.
128
TABLE C-3: EATING & DRINKING REAL GROWTH IN EXPENDiTURES — PROVINCE OF ONTARIO
Per Capita Consumer Eating & Drinking Percent Price Percent Real Year Expenditures (1 Change Index (2 Change Growth
1981 $350 100.0 1982 $386 10.3% 112.4 12.4% —2.1% 1983 $398 3.1% 120.6 7.3% —4.2% 1984 $416 4.5% 125.7 4.2% 0.3% 1985 $452 8.7% 131.5 4.6% 4.1% 1986 $500 10.6% 138.7 5.5% 5.1% 1987 $542 8.4% 142.5 2.7% 5.7% 1988 $619 14.2% 149.6 5.0% 9.2% 1989 $660 6.6% 158.1 5.7% 0.9%
1981 to 1989 average 11.1% 7.3% 3.8%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63—005). 2) Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indices (publication 62—010). Consumer Price Index is for food purchased in restaurants. Represents a weighted average of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay.
129
APPENDIX D. DEFINITION OF TERMS
Appendix D. Definition of Terms
The following definitions have been prepared in order to acquaint the reader with terms which may appear new or unusual as used in this report. They have been included in order to avoid misunderstanding of the various terms or methods discussed in this analysis.
Trade or Market Area - The geographic area of influence from which a retail development or commercial centre could normally expect to derive, on a regular basis, between 75.0% and 95.0% of its total sales volume is defined as its trade area or market area. The remaining sales are normally derived from residents living in areas beyond the delineated borders or occasional travellers. Market area boundaries consist frequently of socio-economic, man-made or natural barriers such as railway lines or rivers, although the influence of competitive retail facilities, where applicable, or car driving times are also important factors considered in the establishment of trade area boundaries.
Per Capita Income - Per capita income as used in this report represents average total personal income before tax as defined by Statistics Canada. Per capita income data in this study reflects National Expenditure Account Statistics, which are prepared regularly for all Provinces. Trade area income data is based on the results of the 1981 and 1986 Census of Canada. Recent changes as reflected by Taxation Statistics, published by Revenue Canada as well as Urban and Rural FSA data have been consulted to calculate 1990 levels.
Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM) - In order to evaluate the volume potential for specific types of stores, one has to define the market within which such stores operate. In estimates dealing with future potential, the merchandise which is not carried by department stores, such as new and used cars, alcoholic beverages, fuel, etc., must be eliminated because market appeal and sales factors in these categories are normally different from those items which are carried by department stores. Therefore,
130 TABLE 1)-i CALCULATION OF DEPARTMENT STORE TYPE MERCHANDISE (DSTM) ONTARIO, 1986’
Percentage of Total Store Category Sales Category Included Included ($0OO)
Department Store $4,838,187 General Merchandise Stores $1,351,584 General Stores $241,693 Variety Stores $383,778 Men’s Clothing $577,467 Women’s Clothing $1,179,884 Family Clothing $558,561 Specialty Shoe Stores $98,256 Family Shoe Stores $434,321 Hardware Stores $378,962 Household Furniture Stores $633,695 Household Appliance $266,865 Furniture, TV, Radio and Appliance $461,230 Pharmacies, Patent Medicine and Cosmetics $2,316,323 Books and Stationery $303,952 Florists $220,488 Jewellery Stores $415,964 Sporting Goods and Accessories 71.3% $464,917 Personal Accessories2 $976,415 All Other 2Stores 42.7% $2.920.415
TOTAL DSTM $19,022,758 1986 Population 9,113,515 Ontario Per Capita DSTM Expenditure $2,087
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Statistics Canada, Retail Trade (Publication 63-005), March 1986. 2) Excludes non-DSTM store types. 3) Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 1986.
131 it is considered necessary to apply different judgement factors for totally different merchandise categories.
DSTM as used in this report includes all merchandise typically carried by Canadian department stores or by specialty stores selling similar merchandise. Table D-1 illustrates the calculation of per capita DSTM expenditures as derived from current Statistics Canada, Retail Trade Publications for the Province of Ontario. In 1986, DSTM as defined amounted to $2,087per capita.
Effective Competition - This term refers to that portion of total sales of a competitive store or group of stores which is obtained from total trade area residents.
Gross Leasable Area (‘GLA”) - This is the total retail floor area designed for tenant occupancy and exclusive use, including basements, mezzanines and upper floors, if any, expressed in square feet and measured from the centre line of joint partitions and from outside wall faces.
Gross leasable area is all that area on which tenants pay rent; it is the area producing incone. GLA lends itself readily to measurement and comparison. Because of this feature, GLA has been adopted by the shopping centre industry as its standard for statistical comparison.
Residual Method of Study - Under the residual method of calculating volume potential, only that portion of total retail potential which is not being adequately served by existing stores is recognized. Thus, the full and continuing effectiveness of existing stores in the market is recognized. The residual approach does not necessarily maximize the opportunity for a specific major retailer because factors other than those included in the residual approach must be considered in the overall market strategy of a major retailer. However, in combination with consumer surveys, it allows a clear calculation of transfers and impacts.
132 TABLE D-Z NON-DEPARIIvIENT STORE DSTM DISTRIBUTION BY STORE TYPE (%)
Province of Ontario’ Trade Area 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990(2 Store Category General Merchandise 14.9% 14.0% 12.4% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 9.5% Apparel! Accessories 24.2% 23.8% 23.3% 22.9% 22.4% 22.0% 22.0% Household Furnishings 24.5% 25.2% 26.0% 26.7% 26.6% 26.5% 28.5% Drugs! Cosmetics 15.7% 16.3% 16.2% 16.9% 17.5% 18.0% 18.0% Other Specialty 20.7% 20.7% 22.1% 21.9% 21.8% 22.0% 22.0% DSTM 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade Publication (63-005) for the Province of Ontario. 2) Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. estimates based on an evaluation of the trade area inventory and the results of the consumer survey.
133 Non-Department Store DSTM Distribution - The historic distribution of non- department store DSTM expenditures by residents of the Province of Ontario is presented on Table D-2. These figures are based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade data (publication 63-005).
The estimated distribution for the trade area has also been shown. It is based on the results of the consumer survey, our evaluation of the competitive inventory and recognition of the Provincial statistics. The indicated trade area distribution is applied to the total non-department store DSTM potential for each zone, as shown on Table 7 of the report. It is held constant for the forecasted years.
Cluster - The inventory of retail space is summarized within geographic areas which foster cross-shopping, are in proximity to each other, or serve similar functions in a specific area. Such grouping of stores is referred to as an inventory cluster.
Sales Transfer - The existing sales or potential sales taken away from existing retail or service stores by facilities locating in a particular market.
Sales Impact - The absolute decrease in sales from “before” to “after” the introduction of a new store in a market.
Critical Sales Impact - When impact is of an extended duration, or, the degree to which resulting sales for existing stores decline to levels substantially below expected industry averages, and therefore threatens the economic viability of existing stores, then the impact may be termed critical.
134
HL AU NOLLVDL4ISSVD 3HOJS 3DJJUI3StIIVJIflI ‘aXIUN3JJV
APPENDIX R LARRY SMITH & ASSOCIATES LTD. RETA]IJSERVICE STORE CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE
CODE STORE TYPE CODE STORE TYPE CODE STORE TYPE
FOOD STORES DSTh HOUSEHOLD FURNISHINGS OThER RETAIL SELECTED AUTOMOTIVE 1 Supermarket 38 Hardware 2 Superstores 39 Furniture 81 Tires/Batteries/Automotive 3 Grocery 40 Household Appliances Accessories 4 Jug Milk 41 Electrical Supply 82 Home & Auto Supply (eg. Canadian 5 Box Stores (eg. Valdis) 42 Furniture/TV/Radio/Appliances Tire) 6 Bakery 43 Paint/Glass/Wallpaper 83 Specialty Repair 7 Candy/Nut 44 TV Sales/Service 8 Green Grocer 45 TV/Radio/Stereo 9 Meat/Fish 46 China/Glassware/Kitchenware OTHER RETAIL 10 Deli 47 Floor/Curtains/Upholstery! LIQUOR/BEER/WINE 11 Cheese Interior Decorating 12 Health Food 48 Linen/Bath 84 Liquor 13 Other Food 49 Picture Frame 85 Beer 50 Antique 86 Wine (not wine making) 51 Piano/Organ DSTM GENERAL MERCHANDISE 52 Record Store 53 Sewing Machine OTHER RETAIL HOME 14 Traditional Department Stores 54 Lighting IMPROVEMENT 15 Discount Department Store 55 Video 16 General Merchandise (eg. 56 Other Household Furnishings 87 Home Improvement Stores Bi-Way, Bargain Harolds, Stedmans, Nabour) 17 Mail Order (eg. Sears) DSThI: DRUGS/COSMETICS SERVICES: F.ATING/DRINKING 18 General Store 19 Variety 57 Drug Stores 88 Restaurants (Licenced) 58 Cosmetics 89 Restaurants (Not Licenced) 90 Fast Food DSTM APPARELIACCESSORIES 91 Donuts/Cookies/Muffins DSTM OThER SPECIALTY DSTM 92 Ice Cream/Yogurt 20 Mens/Boys Wear 93 Cafeterias 21 Ladies Wear 59 Books/Stationary 22 Childrens Wear 60 Cards 23 Family Wear 61 florist SERVICES: OTHER 24 Unisex Wear 62 Jewellery 25 Mens Shoes 63 Sporting Goods/Apparel 94 Beauty/Hair 26 Ladies Shoes 64 Bicycles 95 Barber 27 Childrens Shoes 65 Tobacco/News 96 Dry Cleaning (Plant) 28 Family Shoes 66 Gift/Novelty 97 Dry Cleaning (Pickup) 29 Lingerie 67 Camera/Photo Supply 98 Laundry 30 Hosiery 68 Luggage/Leather Goods 99 Shoe Repair 31 Maternity 69 Toy/Hobby 100 Travel Agent 32 Millinery 70 Music Stores (eg. Instruments) 101 Photographer 33 Furrier 71 Opticians 102 Health/Tanning Salon 34 Fabric 72 Pets/Pet Supply 103 BankiTrust Company 35 Wool 73 Artists Supply 104 Theatre/Cinema 36 Bridal 74 Art Galleries 105 Amusement Arcade 37 Accessories/Other Apparel 75 Coin/Stamp 106 Bowling/Billiards (eg. Ties) 76 Key 107 Repair Service 77 Arts and Crafts 108 Dental/Medical 78 Catalogue (eg. Consumers 109 Real Estate Distributing) 110 Insurance 79 Garden Centre 111 Legal 80 Other Specialty DSTM 112 Brokerage 113 Accounting 114 Post Office 115 Telephone Store 116 Library 117 Other Services
135
APPENDIX F. INVENTORY OF BROCKVILLE MAJOR OFFICE SPACE
APPENDIX F. INVENTORY OF BROCKVIILE MAJOR OFFICE SPACE
Table F-i which accompanies this section outlines the existing competitive major office space within the City of Brockville. The accompanying map illustrates the location of these facilities. For the purposes of this report, major buildings are defined as those containing in excess of 5,000 square feet gross building area. Buildings smaller than this are not considered relevant to the analysis.
The total office inventory comprises 3i buildings and over 368,000 square feet of gross office space. Office space is situated throughout the urban area of Brockville, however, the major concentration of space is in Downtown Brockville, specifically along King Street. Furthermore, the majority of the inventory, i.e. 250,800 square feet (68.1%) is defined as private sector space, meaning a building is not owned and entirely occupied by a government agency (public sector). All of the private sector buildings operate in the competitive leasing market. The public sector space totals 117,600 square feet and includes 9 buildings completely occupied and administered by government agencies.
The average size of office buildings in Brockville is approximately 12,000 square feet. However, individual building sizes will vary over a wide range. For example, the majority of office buildings in the downtown area are below this average recognizing site constraints along King Street. In areas outside of the downtown, buildings are generally closer to this average level or somewhat larger.
Based on our discussions with local leasing agents and inquiries recently made of building landlords by the City of Brockville planning department, relevant information concerning vacancies, rental rates and local market trends has been considered. For instance, the current Brockville vacancy level for private sector office space is estimated to be between 15.0% - 20.0%. This is well in excess of rates in the order of 7.5%, which are typically thought to reflect a balanced office leasing market. However, we understand that a significant amount of this vacant space is located in the Downtown Boardwalk Building, i.e. an estimated 16,000 square feet asking $17.00 per square foot
136 net. This rental level is much higher than the typical rates being asked for other space in Brockville which we found to range between $7.00 - $14.00 per square foot based on discussions with local leasing agents. The high rents combined with limited parking facilities and accessibility of the project has left the space difficult to lease.
Furthermore, a substantial amount of vacant space is situated on 2nd and 3rd floors of older Downtown buildings, e.g. the Woolworth’s building and the Montreal Trust building. Much of this space is unattractive to potential tenants considering its age, physical repair, amenities and parking limitations in the downtown. Renovation costs to bring this space back to competitive standards could be prohibitively high depending on the building. Hence, alternative uses for this space may be considered in the future including conversions to residential uses. Although this space also contributes to the City vacancy level, some of it is questionable in terms of being competitive building stock.
At this time, two office buildings are under construction in Brockville. A zoned and approved site located on the north side of Laurier Boulevard is currently being developed for a 26,900 square foot (2-storey) office building. This facility will be the Administration building for the County Health Unit when completed by late 1990 or early 1991. At that time, new vacant space will be created at the 70 Charles St. premises (#3 1) and the Comstock Building (#22) where the Health Unit currently leases space. We understand that a second building located at Brock and William Streets has just recently commenced construction with completion planned for 1991. Total space in the development will be 15,000 square feet.
Several other proposals for new space are also being considered at this time. The status of these projects are varied and the information currently available for them is summarized in the Proposal Listings of Appendix A (Table A-2).
Table F-2, found at the conclusion of this Appendix, presents per capita occupied office space ratios for five other Ontario communities which can be compared to the current Brockville ratio. Please note that the ratios do not include any allowance for vacant
137 space. Hence, the addition of a 7.5% vacancy allowance to the current Brockville ratio (14.4 sq. ft./person) will yield the 15.5 sq. ft. per capita factor utilized in our analysis (Table 22). The purpose of this information is to provide a benchmark with which to compare the current and forecast ratio of per capita office space in Brockville.
138
______
TI ; L / ; -‘ II i I / 0
/ I // /
I I
1’ /1/i fr =+— I I u 11 \ /11 1, . , / / f.\ / — f \ k/ I I \ ‘I r I 1 i rer *. — - i I : —- _4 r.. , :- ‘I,. - I .• —j! I f’.’.:i I’ - ..—.. - c\ - 1 a ii._il_-rfr 1- -
— , . --. - -. / -.---.- — —-- I _.*1: ._J L. )4a a1‘‘ qi‘‘4 1O* fli \
1 - ii \irj Z’L j)< * I
II. . ...- ) . . .. . -‘:‘ ÷H $N” I”
TABLE F-i (Continued) crr OF BROCKVILLE INVENTORY OF MAJOR OFFICE SPACE(1 (Square Feet)
Gross Office Area Map Opening Public Private
j Building Name - Mdress Y Sector Sector Major lènants
10 Victoria Common School 1977 8,000 - Ontario Secondary School 32 Wall Street Teachers’ Association
- Children Services, consultants
11 21 Courthouse Ave. 1900 7,000 - Lawyers
12 Woolworths Building 1960 6,300 - vacant (previously Doctors 36-46 King Street West and Dentists offices)
13 Harding Block 1904 7,000 - Realtors, accountants, 43 King Street West investors
- Brockville BIA
14 DLK Building 1900 9,700 - DLK Insurance and DLK 35 King Street West Real Estate
15 7 King Street West 1978 18,000 - London Life
- The Mutual Group
16 Victoria Building 1850 15,000 - City of Brockville (100%) (Brockville City Hall)
17 46-50 King Street East 1979 8,600 - Accountants, Dentists
- Century 21
18 Brockville Commercial 1960 15,700 - Doctors, consultants
Building - Ministry of Community & 51 King Street East Social Services
Q TABLE F-i CITY OF BROCKVILLE INVENTORY OF MAJOR OFFICE SPACE(1 (Square Feet)
Gross Office Area Map Opening Public Private
Kc Building Name - Mdress Sector Sector Major lènants
1 The Boardwalk Condo 1989 18,000 - Wachfree Construction
9 Broad Street - Macnamee Realty
2 Ministry of the Attorney 1966 8,200 - Ministry of the Attorney General General (100%) 75 Water Street East
3 The Harbourview 1981 5,800 - R.Reid Property Mgmt.
3 Apple Street - Youth Employment Assistance Headquarters Inc.
4 179-191 King Street West 1947 8,900 - Consultants, United Way
5 Government of Canada 1963 6,800 - Public Works Canada
Building - Secretary of State 34 Buell Street
6 Canada Thist Building 1987 14,300 - Lawyers, Doctors 133 King Street West - Health & Welfare Canada
7 The Thompson Building 1892 5,100 - Kostuch Engineering Ltd. 51 King Street West
8 Montreal Thist Building 1900 18,600 - Lawyers, vacant 2-4 Courthouse Ave.
9 Leeds & Grenville County 1842 14,600 - County Court Offices Courthouse
I-. TABLE F-i (Continued) CITY OF BROCKVILLE INVENTORY OF MAJOR OFFICE SPACE(1 (Square Feet)
Gross Office Area Map Opening Public Private jçy Building Name - Mdress Sector Sector Major lènants
19 Equity Building 1958 13,200 - Lawyers
61 King Street East - Young Drivers of Canada
20 Family & Children’s Aid 1969 8,800 - Family & Children’s Aid Services Services Prescott Road
21 Ontario Government Building 1985 29,400 - Ministry of Natural Resources
- Ministry of Skills Development
22 Comstock Building 1985 11,500 - Addiction Assessment 82 Emma Street Centre
- Big Brothers Association
- Cancer Society, English as a second language.
- Leeds and Grenville County Health Unit
23 Professional Arts Building 1973 8,800 - Doctors, Dentists, 135 Ormond Street Chiropractors
24 Leeds & Grenville County 1975 19,200 - Leeds & Grenville County Board of Education Board of Education (100%) 25 Central West
25 Brockville Shopping Centre 1985 18,000 - Doctors, Dentists, Lawyers
125 Stewart Street - Elementary Teachers
TABLE F-i (Continued) CITY OF BROCKVILLE INVENTORY OF MAJOR OFFICE SPACE(1 (Square Feet)
Gro Office Area Map Opening Public Private
Buildint Name - Address Sector Sector Major lènants
Federation
26 Brockville Medical Centre 1976 13,100 - Doctors, Optometrists 309 Park Avenue
27 Glenwood Medical Centre 1966 11,800 - Doctors, Dentists, 6 Glenwood Place Psychiatrists
- MDS Laboratories
28 2495 Parkedale Ave. 1976 7,200 - Bell Canada (100%)
29 The Ontario Building 1970 8,200 - Ministry of Revenue 2479 Parkedale Ave. Assessment Office (100%)
30 Chelsea Court 1978 16,200 - Small businesses, doctors, 779 Chelsea Street accountants, insurance
- Brockville Community Living Association
31 70 Charles Street Pre 1970 7,400 - Leeds and Grenville County Health Unit
Total City of Brockville 117.600 250.800
Total Space Inventoried 368,400
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Based on data provided by the City of Brockville Planning Department and field investigations undertaken by Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. Includes buildings with 5,000 square feet gross office area or over.
-Is
TABLE F-2
OFFICE SPACE PER CAPiTA RATIOS FOR COMPARABLE ONTARIO COMMUN1TIES
OCCUPIED OCCUPIED SQ.Fr./ CITY SPACE (1 POPULATION (1 PERSON
1. Timmins 315,900 47,100 6.7 2. Oakville 848,900 102,500 8.3 3. Brockville 317,100 22,000 14.4 4. Burlington 1,820,800 122,700 14.8 5. London 4,579,970 285,000 16.1 6. Mississauga 9,079,400 446,700 20.3
SOURCE: Larry Smith & Associates Ltd. 1) Figures are for 1989 data in all other cities except Brockville, which is 1990 information.
143
APPENDIX 0: BROCKVILLE OFFICIAL PLAN AND ZONING BY-LAW COMEMRCIAL POLICIES
Appendix G: Brockvlile Official Plan and Zoning By-Law Commercial Policies
The purpose of this appendix is to provide a brief overview of the relevant commercial sections of the Brockville Official Plan and Zoning By-Law. On the basis of this review, along with the preceding Market Demand Analysis for selected retail, service and office space facilities, general recommendations are provided for appropriate changes to the Official Plan and Zoning By-Law as they relate to the provision of commercial land in Section 9.
Brockvllle Official Plan Commercial Policy
The Official Plan for the City of Brockville was first adopted by Council during August of 1987. It is intended to provide policies which will guide and direct the location and type of all future development and redevelopment within the City over the subsequent fifteen years. The independent findings of our Market Demand Analysis should be evaluated within the context of relevant commercial sections of the Official Plan. The following items are particularly relevant to this report:
1. A basic assumption upon which the Plan is based is that the City will continue to function as the main residential, commercial, industrial, service, and cultural centre for the City and its environs. Furthermore, overall development shall proceed in an orderly manner and ribbon development along arterial roads shall not generally be permitted.
2. The Official Plan goals with respect to commercial development include the provision of suitably located areas consistent with sound economic principles. However, because of existing supply, the Plan indicates the City should limit future commercial designations.
3. The objectives of the Official Plan Commercial Policy include the provision of strategically located General Commercial land, where it will not adversely affect
144 the central business district. In addition, Local Commercial should locate to serve local residents on a day-to-day basis.
4. Council shall encourage and promote an economic climate which offers a broad range of economic opportunities for the private sector, and a broad range of employment opportunities in the labour force.
As indicated by Item 3 above, the Plan is structured to be sensitive to the overall well being of the Downtown Core area in the City. The following policies reflect this sensitivity: a) Shopping centres and department stores are not permitted in Highway Commercial districts. b) New large retail uses in an area designated for Highway Commercial must be supported by documentation demonstrating that the use will not have a significant adverse effect upon existing retail concentrations, particularly the Downtown Core. c) New shopping centres proposed for the City are required to complete an economic impact study which demonstrates the additional space is justified, and will not have long-term detrimental effects upon existing commercial zones, particularly the Downtown Core. d) The Plan speaks to ensuring continuing importance of the Central Business District, as a major centre for shopping, government, institutional, cultural and business services, and to encourage the continued development of the core in areas such as banking, restaurants, clothing, and personal and professional services. e) Ancillary commercial services including personal services and convenience stores are permitted within industrial zones under the commercial/industrial
145 designation. The Plan generally directs commercial activities to commercial concentrations, and seeks to not permit commercial encroachment into industrial designated lands, including office space activities.
The Official Plan sets out four categories of commercial land as outlined below:
• The Commercial General District, which includes amongst other space users retail and service operations, business and professional offices, hotels, theatres, clubs, and places of amusement and recreation.
• The Commercial Highway Area, which amongst other users includes auto dealerships, service stations, public garages, hotel/motels, restaurants, theatres, drive-in restaurants, commercial recreation uses, commercial uses serving the motoring public and transportation industry, as well as large retail or wholesale outlets. This category does not cater to pedestrian shopping trade, but rather is suited to individuals with a specific business purpose. Users in this category require highly accessible sites, and have physical requirements such that they are not suitable for Downtown Commercial locations. Shopping centres and department stores are specifically excluded from this zone. As described above, Commercial Highway uses are relatively constrained in terms of traditional retail and office permitted uses.
• The Commercial Shopping Centre District permits retail and service operations, business, professional offices, and residential uses, as a secondary use only. A shopping centre by definition shall be owned and operated as a single entity with a total gross leasable floor area of over 53,000 square feet (5,000 square metres), and shall comprise three or more leasable units, as well as provide a common parking area on the site. Furthermore, these centres shall be located on an arterial roadway.
• The Commercial ‘Waterfront District permits a relatively wide range of commercial activity that includes boating related services and agencies, retail
146
stores, hotel/motel, specialized commercial and craft industiy uses, as well as professional offices. All of the lands in this district are located immediately south of the main Downtown Commercial Area along the river.
In addition to the four commercial designations cited above, limited types and amounts of commercial space can also be accommodated in residential and industrial districts. For the residential district, ancillary Local Commercial uses may be provided which are limited to the sale of goods and personal services as required by the inhabitants of the surrounding residential areas, e.g. convenience retail and personal service shops.
For the industrial district, limited personal service uses and convenience stores may be permitted within a Commercial Industrial zone. In addition, accessory retailing and display of goods manufactured, processed, fabricated or repaired on site, and the accessory retailing of goods directly related to the main product manufactured, processed or fabricated on site are permitted in an industrial zone. Finally, administrative offices associated with a main use are allowed, plus limited office uses within industrial malls to a maximum of 50% of the gross area of the industrial mall. Permitted office uses include space for industrial firms located within the City; government offices related to industrial and economic development; offices of courier services, building, maintenance, security, and transportation firms; taxi dispatch offices; wholesalers and other similar activities.
Brockville Zoning By-Law
The Zoning By-Law represents the mechanism by which Official Plan policies are implemented. As such, there are seven commercial zoning designations at this time in the City By-Law.
• Local Commercial (C-i) • Service Commercial (C-5) • General Commercial (C-2) • Shopping Centre Commercial (C-6) • Waterfront Commercial (C-3) • Industrial Commercial (C-7) • Highway Commercial (C-4)
147