THE YOUTH VOTE WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN’T BE IGNORED

BRITISH COLUMBIA FEDERATION OF STUDENTS Federation of Students The British Columbia Federation of Students represents over 170,000 college and university students from across all regions of the province. The Federation represents full- and part-time students at the college, undergraduate, and graduate levels. Together these students advocate for a well-funded system of post- secondary education in BC that is affordable and accessible for all students.

Member Students’ Unions University of British Columbia Students’ Union Okanagan Camosun College Student Society Douglas Students’ Union Emily Carr Students’ Union College of New Caledonia Students’ Union Northern British Columbia Graduate Students’ Society North Island Students’ Union Northwest Community College Students’ Union Okanagan College Students’ Union Selkirk College Students’ Union Thompson Rivers University Students’ Union Students’ Union of Vancouver Community College Vancouver Island University Students’ Union

Prospective Member Students’ Union Quest University Students' Association

207-245 East Columbia Street New Westminster, BC V3L 3W4 (604) 733-1880 wearebcstudents.ca @theBCFS Executive Summary

In the 2015 federal election, young voters turned out to vote in record numbers. This turnout is more than an anomaly — it is a part of a larger trend of civic engagement amongst young people that is manifesting in electoral participation. Over the last three British Columbia general elections, for example, the turnout of voters aged 18 to 24 has increased steadily. These trends are mirrored with surging Millennial turnout in the 2018 USA midterm election and in the 2017 United Kingdom national election.

The recent spike in young voter turnout will undoubtedly have long term implications. Research shows voting is behavioural: a person is 50% more likely to vote again after voting for the first time compared to a non-voter.1

The data shows a generational shift is occurring. The size and engagement of Millennials is reshaping the social and political landscape; electoral success is beginning to rely more heavily on the "youth vote". Despite the false narrative that young people are apathetic, Millennials continue to prove that they are engaged on matters of great importance, such as climate change, affordability, human rights, and economic opportunity.

The generational shift is also being reflected in the age of three of the four major Canadian political party leaders. The 2019 federal election will see the youngest political leader candidates in Canadian history: Trudeau (47), Scheer (40), and Singh (40).2

This report explores demographic and voting trends amongst young Canadians and the impact it will have for political parties and governments for years to come. This report should serve as a warning — and an opportunity — for campaigns, pundits, the media, and elected officials: young voters can no longer be ignored.

WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN'T BE IGNORED 1 Millennials Rising

The Millennial generation is defined as those who were born between 1980 and 2000. figures show that in the 2019 election, Millennials and Generation Xers (born early-1960s to 1980) will represent two-thirds of the electorate, with Millennials forming the largest single voting bloc. This is the first time in 40 years that Canadians under 35 will form the largest age cohort.3

As more Millennials reached voting age, the youth category of voters has grown significantly in size, relative to other generations. As illustrated in Figure 1, Millennials will make up 37% of the electorate in the 2019 election. By sheer numbers alone, these voters have the capacity to influence election outcomes.

Political parties can no longer ignore this group of voters, nor can they be written off as apathetic. A recent report by the Samara Centre for Democracy shows that Millennials are not only more politically active than their parents, they also care about a wide variety of political issues. Young people are not just activists, though. Their passion has translated into more young people voting in elections all over the world, including Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

It is important to note that Millennials are not a homogeneous group of people: while they may share concerns about the economy, environment, and affordability, they do not all agree on the solutions. For example, Abacus Data has reported that while 87% of Millennials consider themselves moderate or ardent environmentalists, when asked about ideal components of a climate change plan their answers varied from carbon taxes, to clean technology initiatives, to vehicle emissions standards.4 In order to inspire support from this growing demographic, politicians must stop treating Millennials as a bloc that can be swayed with flashy campaign promises that are specific to that age group, or by relying on their party's reputation amongst young people.

A common rationale put forward in the media to justify attitudes about youth voter turnout is that young people do not trust the political system. Yet according to the Samara Centre for Democracy, 76% of those aged 18 to 29 are satisfied with how our democracy works in Canada, and 57% trust their Members

2 THE YOUTH VOTE of Parliament are doing what's right (which is 7% higher than the next two higher age brackets).5

Canadian Voting Trends by Age Demographic: 1965-2000 The collection of election data from the 1960s to 2000 relied solely on the Canadian Election Study, a post-election survey conducted via telephone. Due to the self-reporting nature of the Study, the numbers should be regarded as estimates: those groups who are more impacted by "social desirability" tend to answer self-reporting questions in a way that would be most favourable by others, thereby potentially inflating overall turnout numbers.6

The turnout of voters (of any age) to the polls is dependent on many issues, including the timing of the election, satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) with the current government, voting requirements, and socio- economic factors. Additionally, political events like wars, civil rights disputes, geo-political upheaval, and economic recessions can result in changes in turnout at the polls.

Since voter data has been collected, youth voter turnout has ebbed and flowed: in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s estimated turnout of 18 to 24 year olds ranged from 70% to 85%.7 However, from the mid-1980s to 2000 turnout amongst young Canadians declined dramatically.

Voter turnout data of the 1980s and 1990s is often used to paint a picture of apathetic young people, but that data must be viewed within the context of the political landscape. The 1984 federal election marked the emergence of neo-liberal politics in Canada with the election of the Progressive Conservative Government. During that time, much of the political conversation in the country shifted away from issues of social justice and equity, to high-level fiscal matters which young people tend to feel alienated from.8

However, this decline in youth voter turnout does not mean young people were apathetic. During this time of declining electoral engagement, young Canadians continued to be involved in political, social,

FIGURE 1: GENERATIONAL PROPORTION OF THE ELECTORATE

12% 9% SilentSilent 17% 21% 25% 28% 28% 32% 31% BoomersBoomers 34% 34% 37% 35% 38% 41% 28% GenGen X X 43% 42% 28% 45% 30% 30% 48% 27% 26% 37% MillenialsMillenials 24% 26% 21% 29% 15% 17% 5% 12%

1980 1984 1988 199 1997 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2019

Source: Abacus Data

WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN'T BE IGNORED 3 and community initiatives. In 1996 for example, over 10,000 students in Québec took part in a student strike against a proposed 30% increase to tuition fees, successfully winning a tuition fee freeze. In 1999, when the City of Seattle hosted the World Trade Organisation Ministerial Conference, approximately 40,000 protesters, many of whom were students and young people, gathered to protest against globalization. Continued research shows that younger people are more likely than their grandparents to engage in cause-oriented political actions.9

Canadian Voting Trends by Age Demographic: 2004-2015 In 2004 Elections Canada began using a different method to collect and analyse voter data, moving away from the Canada Election Study. As of 2004, Elections Canada now cross-references a large sample of electors who voted in the federal election with data from the National Register of Electors for a more verifiable and accurate representation of actual voter turnout.10 Because voter turnout has been estimated using two different methodologies pre-2000 and post-2000 it is difficult to directly compare the data from the two periods. General trends, however, seem fairly certain.

In the last federal election 18 to 24 year olds experienced a record-breaking surge. In 2011 only 38.8% of this age group voted, and in 2015 57.1% voted — an incredible 18.3 percentage point increase between elections.11 In all federal elections since 1960 no age group has increased its voter turnout between two consecutive elections by such a significant margin. Millennials truly made history in 2015.

FIGURE 2: VOTER TURNOUT IN CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS

80%

70%

0% 75

5 - 74 50% 55 - 4 45 - 54

5 - 44

40% 25 - 4

18 - 24

0% 2004 200 2008 2011 2015 Source: Elections Canada 4 THE YOUTH VOTE Due to this record-breaking increase in 2015 voters aged 18 to 24 had the same voter turnout rates as voters aged 25 to 34 (both reached 57%) and was not far behind the next age cohort: 35 to 44 voter turnout was 61.9%.12

Youth voter turnout increased in all provinces and territories in the 2015 federal election compared to 2011. Moreover, all provinces except PEI saw a major increase in youth voter turnout for the 2015 federal election; the two provinces with the highest youth voter turnout were New Brunswick (67%) and British Columbia (66%).13

Provincial Elections: British Columbia Over the past decade young people in British Columbia have been coming out in force. According to Elections BC, 56.2% of voters aged 18 to 24 voted in the May 2017 BC election.14 Not only is that a notable 8.3 percentage point increase over the 2013 election, but it’s also a higher turnout than those voters aged 25 to 44. In fact, virtually the same percentage of voters aged 18 to 24 voted as those aged 35 to 44.15

Since 2009, the youngest age cohort has increased significantly in voter turnout, while most other age categories have remained stagnant in percentage of voter turnout. Younger Millennials have surpassed their next closest age bracket to make their voices heard prominently in BC electoral politics.

This trend has been viewed across the globe over the past decade.

FIGURE 3: VOTER TURNOUT IN BC PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

80%

70%

0% 75

5 - 74

50% 55 - 4 45 - 54

5 - 44

40% 25 - 4

18 - 24

0% 2005 2009 201 2017 Source: Elections BC WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN'T BE IGNORED 5 United States Voter turnout trends across all age groups in the US presidential elections have been generally increasing since 1994, with the highest voter turnout in 2008, reaching just over 60%. In the 2008 presidential election, 51.1% of eligible youth aged 18 to 29 voted.16 More recently, there was a spike in voter turnout for all ages in the 2018 midterm election,17 with the highest midterm youth turnout in a quarter century.18

According to the US Census Bureau Current Population Surveys, youth (18 to 24) voter turnout increased from 17% in the 2014 midterm elections to 32% in the 2018 midterm election, making it the largest increase for any age group — an 88% jump.19 This may still seem low, but between those two midterm elections, general voter turnout increases from 41.9% to 53.4%, resulting in the largest voter turnout since 1978.20 Much of this increase can be directly attributed to the large increase in youth voters: according to the research group Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, youth voter turnout increased in every state. The researchers argue that this has happened because of the recent youth activism post-Parkland shooting, along with protests, and student-led calls to action which have continued the growing momentum that youth believe they can affect real political change. United Kingdom

This wave of engagement from young voters has also occurred in the UK over the past decade. According to exit polls, 64% of voters aged 18 to 24 cast a ballot in the 2016 referendum on membership in the European Union. The turnout is incredibly close to the 25 to 39 bracket (65%) and 40 to 54 bracket (66%), and is the highest turnout for young voters in over two decades.21

The turnout of young voters didn't end with the high profile "Brexit" referendum. According to research conducted by Ipsos MORI22, the turnout of young voters in the 2017 national election was the highest of any national election in 25 years. In 2017, 64% of British youth aged 18 to 24 voted, bringing their turnout rates within two percentage points of those aged 25 to 34 and 35 to 4423.

6 THE YOUTH VOTE What Is Motivating Millennials?

Young Canadians are facing major challenges such as the cost of post-secondary education, the affordability crisis in the housing (including rental) market, the precarious nature of today's job market, and the global climate crisis.

Canadian researchers argue that young voters are more engaged in elections when candidates discuss issues that interest them, specifically on theme of equality and human rights which young people identify as important. According to a recent report published by Abacus Data and the Canadian Alliance of Student Associations, students' top five priorities of issues that should be tackled in Canada are (in order): creating job opportunities for young Canadians; making college and university more affordable; dealing with climate change and the environment; making housing more affordable; and improving Canada's health care system.24

Educational attainment is a key factor in voter participation. Research shows that students aged 18 to 24 are 9% more likely to vote than those of the same age who are not engaged in post-secondary training or studies.25 Young Canadians that have greater political knowledge are more likely to vote, but many young people find it more difficult than their older counterparts to access helpful information about political campaigns and candidates.26 Engaging with and motiving young voters in many ways can be as straightforward as providing clear and concise materials and ensuring easy access to party platforms to help them make an educated decision on voting day.

As previously mentioned, voting is habit-forming: research shows that if you vote once, you are more likely to vote again.27 Once young voters gain that experience, they’re more likely to keep voting, and encourage others to go out to vote. A key to helping a new generation of voters — and increasing voter turnout in the generations to come — is to encourage youth to get out there and vote for the first time.

Recent research from the US shows that young voters can be encouraged to participate through peer- to-peer outreach, social media, and by highlighting issues youth care deeply about, and by getting them involved from an educated standpoint. Organisations across Canada engage in this work during provincial and federal elections to help remove barriers to youth participation and encourage voter turnout.28

WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN'T BE IGNORED 7 Conclusion and Recommendations

The 2015 Canadian federal election; three consecutive BC provincial elections; the 2017 UK national election; and the 2018 US midterm election — all saw higher (and in some cases record) voter turnout amongst young Millennials.

This is not a simple “flash in the pan” blip. There are real struggles facing the Millennial generation, including affordability, climate change, human rights, and limited access to stable economic opportunities. As long as these struggles persist, Millennials will be galvanized to seek solutions. And right now, as shown in this report, they are turning to the ballot box in record numbers.

If political parties are serious about engaging with young people, their party platforms must reflect issues that young people care about: the cost of education, the environment, good jobs, the economy and health care. Young people are not a homogeneous group that only care about ‘niche’ issues.

Some of the common barriers faced by young voters is a lack of clear information on when and where to vote, identification requirements, and lack of accessible voting stations. Elections Canada can help alleviate these concerns by continuing its voter engagement campaigns, having polling stations on campuses, and providing information for people voting outside their home communities.

Negative tropes about youth apathy perpetuated by the media and by pundits are a form of voter suppression: telling a group of citizens who have clearly demonstrated their desires to participate in the electoral system with their participation in other political actions that their vote will not matter because not enough of their peers vote is not only false, but harmful. It is evident that young people are engaged in their communities and are active at the ballot box. To further bolster youth voter turnout, the negative — and more importantly, false — messaging must end and be replaced with a recognition that young voters are an important and active segment of the voting population.

The Millennial generation is a rising power in electoral politics and in society. In the 2019 federal election, candidates, political parties, and the media must recognize and respect the influence that young Canadians will have on the outcome.

8 THE YOUTH VOTE Endnotes

1 Fieldhouse, E. & Cutts D. (2012). “The Companion Effect: Household 17 File, T. (2014). Young-Adult Voting: An Analysis of Presidential and Local Context and the Turnout of Young People,” The Journal of Elections, 1964–2012. United States Census Bureau; http://civicyouth. Politics, 74, 867. org/quick-facts/youth-voting

2 Grenier, E. (2017). Youngest lineup of political leaders in Canadian 18 CIRCLE (The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning history set to fight for youth vote. CBC News. Retrieved from https:// and Engagement) (2018).Young People Dramatically Increase their www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-young-leaders-1.4316943 Turnout to 31%, Shape 2018 Midterm Elections Retrieved from: civicyouth.org/young-people-dramatically-increase-their-turnout-31- 3 Colletto, D. (2017). The numbers don’t lie the conservatives percent-shape-2018-midterm-election have a millennial problem they have to deal with. Retrieved from: abacusdata.ca/the-numbers-dont-lie-the-conservatives-have-a- 19 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2010; millennial-problem-they-have-to-deal-with/ 2014; 2018

4 Sandhu, S., “Electoral Hopes Need Millennial Votes.” abacusdata.ca. 20 Misra, J. "Behind the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election" United States https://abacusdata.ca/electoral-hopes-need-millennial-votes/ Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/ behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html 5 Samara Centre for Democracy (2010).You Have our Attention: Youth Political Engagement in Canada. Retrieved from: www. 21 Yeung, P. (2016) "EU Referendum: Turnout among young voters samaracanada.com/research/active-citizenship/you-have-our- 'almost double' initial reports." Independent Reterieved from: https:// attention www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit- turnout-young-voters-youth-vote-double-a7129181.html 6 Library of Parliament (2016). Youth Voter Turnout in Canada. Retrieved from https://bdp.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ 22 British Election Study, 2017, Ipsos MORI ResearchPublications/2016104El 23 Financial Times (2019 ). Youth turnout at general election highest in 7 IBID 25 years, data show. Retrieved from ft.com/content/6734cdde-550b- 11e7-9fed-c19e2700005ff 8 Cartmel, F. & Furlong A. (2007). Young People and Social Change. McGraw Publishing, 128-129 24 Canadian Alliance of Student Associations (2019) The Student Vote: What motivates 18-25 year olds leading up to the federal election. 9 Norris, P. (2003). From Loyalties to Choice? Harvard University. 16. Retrieved from: https://www.casa-acae.com/students_are_voting_ 10 Library of Parliament (2016). Youth Voter Turnout in Canada. and_they_care_about_jobs_education_affordability_and_climate_ Retrieved from https://bdp.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ change t ResearchPublications/2016104E 25 Blais, A. & Loewen P. (2011). Youth Electoral Engagement in Canada, 11 Elections Canada (2015). Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group Working Paper Series, Elections Canada. and Gender at the 2015 General Election. pg 31 26 Library of Parliament (2016) Youth Voter Turnout in Canada 12 IBID 27 Fieldhouse, E. & Cutts D. (2012). “The Companion Effect: Household 13 Elections Canada (2015) Infographic on Voter Turnout of Youth Aged and Local Context and the Turnout of Young People,” The Journal of 18 to 24 in the 41st and 42nd General Election Reterieved from: Politics, 74, 867. https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/eval/ 28 CIRCLE (The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning pes2015/info&document=turnout3&lang=e and Engagement) (2018).New National Youth Turnout Estimate: 28% 14 Elections BC (2017) Elections Report. pg 57 of Young People Voted in 2018. Retrieved from civicyouth.org/new- national-youth-turnout-estimate-28-of-young-people-voted-in-2018 15 Elections BC (2013) Elections Report pg. 32

16 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November, 2008

WHY YOUNG VOTERS CAN'T BE IGNORED 9