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Adaptive Management Adaptive Management A Practical Guide to Mitigating Uncertainty and Advancing Evidence-Based Programming OCTOBER 2020 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MITIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND ADVANCING EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMMING Pact is the promise of a better tomorrow for communities challenged by poverty and marginalization. We serve these communities because we envision a world where everyone owns their future. To do this, we build systemic solutions in partnership with local organizations, businesses, and governments that create sustainable and resilient communities where those we serve are heard, capable, and vibrant. On the ground in nearly 40 countries, Pact’s integrated adaptive approach is shaping the future of international development. Visit us at pactworld.org. OCTOBER 2020 Recommended citation: Byom, K., Ingram, M., Oakley, A., and Serpe, L. 2020. Adaptive Management: A Practical Guide to Mitigating Uncertainty and Advancing Evidence-Based Programming. Washington, DC: Pact. Contact: Pact Results & Measurement Team [email protected] +1-202-466-5666 pactworld.org Acknowledgments: The authors would like to thank Zach Center, Christine de Guzman, Peter Hopkins, Sabine Joukes, and Anton Pestana for providing constructive feedback on early versions of this guidebook. Rachel Elrom and Stefan Peterson provided editing and graphic design support, respectively. pactworld.org ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MITIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND ADVANCING EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMMING Contents Introduction .................................................................................i Adaptive Management Guidebook ..................................1 Understanding Adaptive Management ................................................1 What is “adaptive management”? ................................................................1 Why should we manage adaptively? .............................................................1 How do we manage adaptively? ..................................................................2 Operationalizing Adaptive Management .............................................3 Mindsets ............................................................................................3 Resources ..........................................................................................3 Processes .......................................................................................... 4 Leadership. 4 Executing Adaptive Management .......................................................4 At a Glance ........................................................................................ 4 Step 1: Determine your project’s degree of complexity ........................................5 Step 2: Determine your strategy to respond to that degree of complexity ................ 8 Step 3: Determine leadership, staffing, and resource needs ................................ 10 Step 4: Establish your adaptive management process .......................................11 Step 5: Implement and evaluate your plans ....................................................13 Adaptive Management Toolkit ...................................14 Tools and Templates Overview ................................................................. 14 TOOL 1: Pact’s Adaptive Management Intensity Self-Questionnaire ....................... 16 Adaptation Intensity Self-Questionnaire ............................................ 16 Program Complexity Determination Matrix ......................................... 16 TOOL 2: Staff Roles and Responsibilities in Adaptive Management .........................17 TOOL 3: Scenario Planning Decision Matrix and Template ....................................21 Risk Versus Impact Decision Matrix ...................................................21 Scenario Planning Template ...........................................................22 TOOL 4: Context Indicator Guide ................................................................24 TOOL 5: Learning and Reflection Meeting Agenda Template ................................ 27 TOOL 6: Reflection Meeting Slide Deck Template ............................................29 TOOL 7: How to Prepare for Learning Review Meetings .....................................33 TOOL 8: Decision Tracker for Adaptive Management .........................................35 pactworld.org Introduction This document provides practical guidance to development practitioners globally on the mindsets, behaviors, resources, and processes that underpin an effective adaptive management system. It presents an approach to managing adaptively that is rooted in complexity analysis and program theory. It draws on Pact’s global experiences and work on topics as diverse as health, livelihoods, markets, governance, capacity development, women and youth, and more. This document begins with an introduction to adaptive management, then walks through successive steps to determine how much adaptation a project requires and how to design an appropriate system. These steps for executing adaptive management are: 1. Determine your project’s degree of complexity 2. Determine your strategy to respond to that degree of complexity 3. Determine leadership, staffing, and resource needs 4. Establish your adaptive management process 5. Implement and evaluate your plans The second half of this guidebook contains a toolkit of examples and templates that projects can tailor to their needs: 1. Adaptive Management Intensity Self-Questionnaire 2. Staff Roles and Responsibilities in Adaptive Management 3. Scenario Planning Decision Matrix and Template 4. Guide to Context Indicators for Adaptive Management 5. Reflection Meeting Template 6. Learning and Reflection Meeting Agenda Template 7. Guide to Preparing for Learning Reviews 8. Decision Tracker for Adaptive Management pactworld.org PAGE i Adaptive Management Guidebook Understanding Adaptive Management What is “adaptive management”? What makes great international development project managers so effective? Most likely they keep their eye on the ultimate goal and regularly ask themselves the “so what” questions. They Just like a boat navigating obstacles and shifting weather probably are adept at taking manageable risks. They undoubtedly track indicators, use data patterns on the way to its effectively, and deploy resources to maximize impact. They also monitor the external operating destination, often changing environment to seize new opportunities and navigate emerging threats. Great managers also direction and at times even encourage their teams to think and act in a similar way, knowing that managing a complex project going backwards, a complex in a shifting world requires a coordinated team effort; every team member has a role to play intervention requires project teams to shift course to adapt to because every action and decision has a cumulative effect on the project’s success. emerging threats and capitalize on opportunities, while keeping In short, the best project managers manage adaptively. They have an agile mindset that recognizes their eye on the ultimate that complex problems cannot be overcome in a linear fashion. This mindset is supported by destination. structured processes and mechanisms for using evidence to inform the pivots we make. Why should we manage adaptively? All projects operate with some level of uncertainty. For example: • Key champions in government may be replaced by someone who blocks progress to project goals. Pact defines adaptive • Monitoring data reveals that planned activities are not contributing to expected results. management as the • A typhoon may change a community’s needs from environmental advocacy to emergency intentional process of assistance. changing the path we take to achieve project • A change in vaccine supplier may triple the costs of one project activity. goals in response to • Conflict may break out in one project location. continuous learning and Projects experience different types and levels of uncertainty. But, regardless of project and information about project context, we cannot know everything and we must expect project conditions to evolve. The performance and the systems in which projects operate are unique and constantly evolving, some more quickly than external environment. pactworld.org PAGE 1 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MITIGATING UNCERTAINTY AND ADVANCING EVIDENCE-BASED PROGRAMMING others. We owe it to those we serve to be inquisitive, intentionally learn from our mistakes, use ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT resources as efficiently as possible, and take measured risks to achieve impact. In short, we owe AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR it to those we serve to manage adaptively based on evidence. Adaptive management approaches are not the development sector’s exclusive or even primary “Of course we are trying to accomplish what is in the Annual Work domain. Private sector companies Plan … But if we find that there are things that are more impactful, recognize that the complexity of markets and high levels we will tweak activities and plans based on our analysis of the data.” of competition render static MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) DIRECTOR, PACT TANZANIA strategic planning processes obsolete. According to one article, increasingly, “[companies] How do we manage adaptively? that thrive are quick to read and act on signals of change. Adaptive management occurs when sound analysis and reflection meet project decision- They have worked out how to making. Rigorous analysis goes nowhere if team members do not have the time to reflect
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