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Future Forests: a Framework for Adaptive Management at Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park

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Future Forests: a Framework for Adaptive Management at Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park Future Forests: A Framework for Adaptive Management at Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park Report prepared by: Matthias Nevins, M.S. – University of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resource Date published: September 6, 2019 Acknowledgements This report is the result of a collaborative effort amongst many individuals. I would first like to acknowledge the work and support of park staff at the Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park (MABI). Kyle Jones, Ecologist at MABI, has offered his expertise and wealth of knowledge about MABI and its forest resources and has provided critical input throughout the process. Christina Marts, the Deputy Superintendent at MABI, has been generous with her time and knowledge throughout the process as well. Ben Machin, forester with Redstart forestry, is the consulting forester for MABI and has generously offered time and support and has provided expert option and feedback throughout the process. Ben Machin also provided forest inventory data for MABI collected by his staff. Anthony D’Amato, PhD Professor and Director of the forestry department in the Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources at the University of Vermont, has provided expert opinion and guidance throughout the process. I would also like to acknowledge the work of Jane Foster, PhD Senior Researcher at the University of Vermont, who provided her expertise in the development of the simulation models which were used in this report to project future forest conditions under different climate scenarios and management alternatives. Maria Janowiak and Todd Ontl from Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science have been working with MABI for several years on climate adaptation planning and this report synthesizes much of their work to date. I would like to thank the Woodstock Foundation for their generous support of this project and the University of Vermont’s Rubenstein School of the Environment and Natural Resources. ii Abstract Natural resource managers are faced with significant challenges as they seek to ensure that forests continue to provide critical goods, services, and functions. Increasingly, managers must continually accommodate shifting societal demands on forests, increased threats from damaging insects, diseases, and invasive species, and a changing climate. These forces of change, referred to by many as global environmental change, represent one of the greatest challenges facing forest resource managers today. The uncertainty and variability around the potential future impacts on forest systems, compels managers to continually adapt to change, implement alternative management approaches, and regularly evaluate the outcomes of our management decisions. This report applies an adaptive management framework, originally developed by the US Forest Service, to assist the Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park in planning for future forest management. In this report we provide a road map for resource managers at MABI to mitigate and adapt to the challenges posed by a changing climate and a host of other stressors, to help ensure that the forest remains productive and resilient into the future. In addition, this report utilizes forest landscape simulation modeling techniques to evaluate the potential long-term impacts of a range alternative management approaches and climate change scenarios on future forest conditions. iii Table of contents Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Table of contents ............................................................................................................................ iv Figures............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................ vii Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1: Context for adaptive forest management ...................................................................... 3 Chapter 2: A framework for adaptive management ........................................................................ 5 Chapter 3: Define management goals and objectives ..................................................................... 7 Northern Hardwood Forest System ........................................................................................................... 9 Plantation Forest System ......................................................................................................................... 11 Hemlock-Hardwood Forest System ......................................................................................................... 12 Culturally and Ecologically Significant Areas ........................................................................................ 13 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 4: Assessing Forest Vulnerability ................................................................................... 15 Potential Impacts ..................................................................................................................................... 17 Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................................... 20 Park Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................... 23 Northern Hardwood Forest System Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................... 23 Plantation Forest System Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................... 28 Hemlock-Hardwood Forest System Vulnerability Assessment .............................................................. 32 Culturally and Ecologically Significant Areas: Vulnerability Assessment ............................................. 35 Chapter 5: Evaluate ....................................................................................................................... 37 Northern Hardwood Forest System: Management Evaluation ................................................................ 37 Plantation Forest System: Management Evaluation ................................................................................ 40 Hemlock-Hardwood Forest System: Management Evaluation ............................................................... 42 Culturally and Ecologically Significant Areas: Management Evaluation............................................... 44 Chapter 6: Identify Adaptation Strategies..................................................................................... 46 Adaptive Silviculture ............................................................................................................................... 46 Adaptive Silviculture Approaches (Resistance, Resiliency, And Transition) ......................................... 49 Adaptive Tactics ...................................................................................................................................... 52 Northern Hardwood Forest System: Adaptation Tactics ........................................................................ 54 Plantation Forest System: Adaptation Tactics......................................................................................... 57 Hemlock-Hardwood Forest System: Adaptation Tactics ........................................................................ 62 Culturally and Ecologically Significant Areas: Adaptation Tactics ....................................................... 66 Chapter 7: Monitor and Re-Evaluate ............................................................................................ 68 Monitor .................................................................................................................................................... 68 Northern Hardwood Forest System: Monitoring Table ...................................................................... 68 Plantation Forest System: Monitoring Table ...................................................................................... 71 Hemlock-Hardwood Forest System: Monitoring Table...................................................................... 74 Re-Evaluate ............................................................................................................................................. 76 Chapter 8: Future forest projections ............................................................................................. 77 Simulating Long-Term Impacts of Current and Alternative Management ............................................. 79 iv Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 95 Additional Resources ...................................................................................................................
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