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The Adaptive Water Resource Management Handbook 234x156 cover (240x159mm with the 3mm bleed) ppc spine 21.1mm T he Adaptive Front cover photos (left to right): ‘How Get Your Water’ © K The complexity of current water resource management poses many challenges. Water managers need to solve a range of interrelated water dilemmas, such as balancing water quantity and quality, flooding, drought, maintaining biodiversity and ecological functions and services, in a context where human beliefs, actions and values play a central role. Furthermore, the growing uncertainties of W global climate change and the long term implications of management actions make the problems even more difficult. ater Resource Management This book explains the benefits, outcomes and lessons learned from adaptive water management (AWM). In essence AWM is a way of responding to uncertainty by designing policy measures which The are provisional and incremental, subject to subsequent modification in response to environmental change and other variables. Included are illustrative case studies from seven river basins from across Europe, West Asia and Africa: the Elbe, Rhine, Guadiana, Tisza, Orange, Nile and Amudarya. These exemplify the key challenges of adaptive water management, especially when rivers cross national Adaptive Water boundaries, creating additional problems of governance. laas Lingbeek- van Kranen/istockphoto.com ‘African Home’ © Jaroslav Mysiak is Senior Researcher at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, and a lecturer at the Resource Department of Economics, University Ca’Foscari in Venice, Italy. Hans Jørgen Henriksen is Senior Advisor in Hydrology at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, GEUS, Copenhagen, Denmark.Caroline Sullivan is an environmental economist and is currently Group Leader of the Water Management and Policy Group at the Oxford University Centre for the Environment, UK. Handbook Management John Bromley is a hydrogeologist and a Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford University Centre for Water Research, UK. Claudia Pahl-Wostl is Professor of Management of Resource Flows at the Institute for Environmental Systems Research in Osnabruck, Germany. Based on extensive collaborative research from the NeWater (New Approaches to Adaptive Water Handbook Management Under Uncertainty) project. Peeter Viisimaa/istockphoto.com ‘Libya’ © Tobias Helbig/ist Climate Change/Risk and Science & Technology Studies/Water and Pahl-W Sullivan, Bromley Mysiak, Henrik Edited by ostl son, contract no 511179 (GOCE) ISBN 978-1-84407-792-2 ockphoto.com www.earthscan.co.uk Edited by Jaroslav Mysiak, Hans Jorgen Henrikson, 9 781844 077922 Earthscan strives to minimize its impact on the environment Caroline Sullivan, John Bromley and Claudia Pahl-Wostl The Adaptive Water Resource Management Handbook The Adaptive Water Resource Management Handbook Edited by Jaroslav Mysiak, Hans Jørgen Henrikson, Caroline Sullivan, John Bromley and Claudia Pahl-Wostl London • Sterling, VA First published by Earthscan in the UK and USA in 2010 Copyright © Dr Jaroslav Mysiak, 2010 All rights reserved ISBN: 978-1-84407-792-2 Typeset by Hands Fotoset, Nottingham, UK Cover design by Yvonne Booth For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan Dunstan House 14a St Cross St London, EC1N 8XA, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1930 Fax: +44 (0)20 7242 1474 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The adaptive water resource management handbook / edited by Jaroslav Mysiak ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-84407-792-2 (hardback) 1. Water–Distribution–Planning–Handbooks, manuals, etc. 2. Water-supply engineering–Handbooks, manuals, etc. 3. Adaptive natural resource management–Handbooks, manuals, etc. 4. Water resources development–Government policy–Case studies. I. Mysiak, Jaroslav. TD345.A335 2009 628.1–dc22 2009014036 At Earthscan we strive to minimize our environmental impacts and carbon footprint through reducing waste, recycling and offsetting our CO2 emissions, including those created through publication of this book. For more details of our environmental policy, see www.earthscan.co.uk. This book was printed in the UK by Cromwell Press. The paper used is FSC certified and the inks are vegetable based. Contents List of Figures and Tables xi Contributor Affiliations xiii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xv 1 Introduction – Making a Strong Case for AWM 1 1.1 Challenges of river basin management 1 C.A. Sullivan (2, 33) 1.2 Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) 4 P. van der Keur (3) and G.J. Lloyd (4) 1.3 Adaptive Water Management in terms of development and application within IWRM 7 P. van der Keur (3), P. Jeffrey (6), D. Boyce (6), C. Pahl-Wostl (1), A.C. Hall (7) and G.J. Lloyd (4) 1.4 Tools for adaptive management 9 J. Bromley (2) and J. Mysiak (5) 1.5 AWM concept in terms of training and capacity building 11 S. Rotter (14), D. Ridder (14) and P. van der Keur (3) 2 Working Towards AWM 17 H. Jørgen Henriksen (3), J. Mysiak (5), F. Jaspers (9), R. Giordano (8), C.A. Sullivan (2, 33) and J. Bromley (2) 2.1 Key outcomes and benefits of AWM 17 2.2 Summary of outcomes from NeWater case river basins (outputs and benefits) 22 2.3 Experiences and identification of lessons learned from piloting AWM 32 vi THE ADAPTIVE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT HANDBOOK 3 Tools and Instruments for Adaptive Management 33 3.1 Management of participatory processes 33 D. Ridder (14), S. Rotter (14), E. Mostert (10), N. Isendahl (1) and D. Hirsch (1) 3.2 Participatory modelling 39 J. Sendzimir (15), P. Magnuszewski (15), O. Barreteau (16), N. Ferrand (16), K. Daniell (16) and D. Haase (17) 3.3 Uncertainty and policy making 43 M. Brunach (1), P. van der Keur (3) and J. Mysiak (5) 3.4 Indicators and monitoring to support AWM 47 C.S. Sullivan (2,33), C. Giupponi (5) and R. Giordano (8) 3.5 An introduction to analysing dynamic vulnerability 53 S. Bharwani (18), J. Hinkel (12), T. Downing (18) and R. Taylor (18) 3.6 Integrated assessment tools and decision support systems 57 C. Giupponi (5) and P. Walsum (9) 3.7 Climate change impacts on water resources and adaptation options 62 V. Krysanova (12) and F. Hattermann (12) 3.8 Management and Transition Framework 67 C. Pahl Wostl (1), B. Kastens (1) and C. Knieper (1) 3.9 Internet portals and services for knowledge transfer 70 C. Knieper (1), D. Thalmeinerova (7) and J. Mysiak (5) 4 Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer 81 S. Rotter (14), C. Terwisscha Van Scheltinga (9), C. van Bers (1), D. Ridder (14), F. Jaspers (9) and P. van der Keur 4.1 Introduction 81 4.2 Aims of the training courses 81 4.3 Target audience for training 82 4.4 Obstacles encountered 82 4.5 The ‘broker concept’ 82 4.6 Train-the-trainer workshops 83 4.7 Train-the-practitioner workshops 83 4.8 AWM in academic education 84 CONTENTS vii 4.9 Lessons learned in academic education 85 4.10 Involvement of organizations outside the project consortium 86 5 Case Study: Elbe 89 V. Krysanova (12), C. Hesse (12), M. Martínková (19), R. Koskova (20) and S. Blazkova (19) 5.1 Background 89 5.2 Selected themes 90 5.3 Research and tools applied in the Elbe case study 93 5.4 Outlook and policy summary 98 6 Case Study: Guadiana 103 R.M. Llamas (21), C. Varela-Ortega (31), A. de la Hera (13), M.M. Aldaya (21), F. Villarroya (21), P. Martínez-Santos (21), I. Blanco (31), G. Carmona (31), P. Esteve (31), L. De Stefano (21), N. Hernández-Mora (21) and P. Zorrilla (21) 6.1 Background 103 6.2 Selected themes 104 6.3 Groundwater modelling and management scenarios 109 6.4 WEAP model 109 6.5 The vulnerability analysis (CART analysis) 110 6.6 Bayesian Belief Networks 110 6.7 Water Footprint 111 6.8 The Future 112 7 Case Study: Rhine 117 J.G. Timmerman (22), H. Buiteveld (22), M. Lamers (23), S. Möllenkamp (1), N. Isendahl (1), B. Ottow (28) and T. Raadgever (10) 7.1 Introduction 117 7.2 The Lower Rhine 118 7.3 Kromme Rijn 120 7.4 Wupper 123 7.5 Comparison between the Wupper and Kromme Rijn regimes 125 viii THE ADAPTIVE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT HANDBOOK 7.6 Conclusions 126 8 Case Study: Tisza 129 D. Haase (17), S. Bharwani (18), S. Kuptsova (29) and A. Iaroshevitch (30) 8.1 Background 129 8.2 Major problems 130 8.3 Lessons learnt and the future 139 8.4 How can AWRM help and what tools are still needed 140 9 Case Study: Amudarya 143 M. Schlüter (17), D. Hirsch (1), U. Abdullaev (35), E. Herrfahrdt-Pähle (24), R. Giordano (8), M. Khamirzaeva 26), G. Khasankhanova (35), N. Kranz (25), S. Liersch (17), N. Matin (18), A. Salokhiddinov (26), A. Savitsky (26), C. Siderius (9) and R. Toryannikova (36) 9.1 Background 143 9.2 Selected themes addressed in the Amudarya Case Study 144 9.3 Tools developed and applied in the Amudarya case study 151 9.4 The future 154 10 Case Study: Nile 157 C.W.J. (Koen) Roest (9), O. Schoumans (9), C. Siderius (9), P. van Walsum (9) and F. Jaspers (9) 10.1 Background 157 10.2 Selected themes in the NeWater project 160 10.3 Tools applied in NeWater 160 10.4 Future of the Nile Basin 167 11 Case Study: Orange 169 C.A. Sullivan (2,33), C. Dickens (27), M. Mander (34), M. Bonjean (2), D. Macfarlane (27), S. Bharwani (18), N. Matin (18), K. Pringle (27), N. Diederichs (34), A.
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