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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Tuesday, July 11, 2017 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Tuesday, July 11, 2017 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Devry Boughner Vorwerk Corporate VP, Global Corporate Affairs Is Piñera a Shoo-in U.N. Security Cargill Council Creates Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, to Return to Colombia Mission JPMorgan Chase & Co. The U.N. Verifi cation Mission W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, Chile’s Presidency? in Colombia will work to help E.M. Warburg Pincus integrate former FARC rebels into Dirk Donath Colombian society. It will replace Senior Partner, a current mission that has been Catterton Aimara supervising the cease-fi re and Barry Featherman disarmament process. Senior Director, Page 2 International Government Affairs, Gilead Sciences Marlene Fernández ECONOMIC Corporate Vice President for Government Relations, Mexico’s Car Arcos Dorados Peter Hakim Exports to U.S. President Emeritus, Inter-American Dialogue Rise in Year’s Donna Hrinak First Half Former President Sebastián Piñera is leading polls ahead of Chile’s November presidential President, Boeing Latin America election. // File Photo: Sebastián Piñera Campaign. Mexican vehicle exports to the Jon Huenemann United States rose 15.6 percent Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, Philip Morris International Sebastián Piñera on July 2 coasted to victory in the primary year-over-year. Page 2 James R. Jones of the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, cementing the Chairman, ManattJones Global Strategies former president’s status as the frontrunner ahead of Chile’s Q POLITICAL Craig A. Kelly November presidential election. Is Piñera a shoo-in to Director, Americas International Rapporteur Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil return to the presidency? To what extent do his rivals, such as Alejandro John Maisto Guillier of the New Majority coalition, pose a threat to Piñera’s candida- Recommends Director, U.S. Education cy? Which issues are driving the presidential race? What infl uence will Finance Group Trial of Brazilian Nicolás Mariscal outgoing President Michelle Bachelet have on the election? President Chairman, Grupo Marhnos Lawmaker Sergio Zveiter, who was appointed to study and report Thomas F. McLarty III Peter DeShazo, visiting professor of Latin American, Latino back on the corruption case of Chairman, and Caribbean Studies at Dartmouth College and former McLarty Associates President Michel Temer, recom- Carlos Paz-Soldan deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere mended that the chamber put the Partner, affairs: “While the candidate of the center-right Chile Vamos president on trial. DTB Associates, LLP A Page 2 Beatrice Rangel coalition, former President Sebastián Piñera, was energized by his Director, showing in the July 2 presidential primary, the campaign ahead will be AMLA Consulting LLC hard-fought and the result is anything but decided. Tradition and polling Gustavo Roosen Chairman of the Board, point to a race between Piñera and the New Majority center-left coalition, Envases Venezolanos headed by Senator Alejandro Guillier, but with several other candidates Andrés Rozental President, Rozental & potentially infl uencing the result. Piñera says he will campaign hard for Asociados and Senior Policy Advisor, Chatham House centrist votes—where most Chileans claim to be ideologically. He has the Shelly Shetty advantage of being free to criticize the record of the unpopular Bachelet Head, Latin America administration. Guillier faces the challenge of forging an effective Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc. Roberto Sifon-Arevalo campaign from the disparate elements of his coalition and in balancing Managing Director, Americas a need to attract votes in the political center with concern about losing Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, Standard & Poor’s votes to the Broad Front on the left. The decision by the Christian Demo- crats (PDC) to run their own presidential candidate further complicates Zveiter // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, July 11, 2017 POLITICAL NEWS Automobile Industry Association shows that NEWS BRIEFS Mexico exported 1.16 million vehicles to the U.N. Security Council United States in the fi rst half of 2017, up 15.6 Rapporteur Recommends percent year-over-year. The United States has Trial for Brazil’s Temer Creates Colombia also taken a greater percentage of vehicles exported from Mexico compared to other A Brazilian Chamber of Deputies member who Political Mission countries to which Mexico exports vehicles was appointed a special rapporteur to study manufactured in the country. Meantime, U.S. the graft case of embattled President Michel The U.N. Security Council on Monday unani- auto sales fell during the fi rst half of this year Temer on Monday recommended that the mously approved a resolution to establish a by 2.1 percent. Six days after his inauguration chamber put the president on trial, Reuters new political mission to help integrate former on Jan. 20, Trump tweeted that “the U.S. has reported. The recommendation of the legisla- rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of a 60 billion dollar trade defi cit with Mexico. It tor, Sergio Zveiter, had been widely expected. Colombia, or FARC, into the country’s society, has been one-sided deal from the beginning Temer would stand trial if two-thirds of the CBS News and the Associated Press reported. of NAFTA with massive numbers of jobs lower house votes to proceed and the Supreme The United Nations Verifi cation Mission in and companies lost.” Earlier this year, Trump Court accepts the charges. Colombia was created for an initial one-year was able to pressure U.S. automaker Ford to period starting Sept. 17. The new mission will stop the building of a vehicle assembly plant replace a current mission that has been moni- in Mexico, but his efforts to dissuade other Peru Recalls Ambassador toring the FARC’s cease-fi re and disarmament automakers from moving operations to Mexico to Ecuador Amid process. Last month, the FARC handed over all have not seen widespread success. When 7,000 of its registered weapons to that U.N. asked by CNBC whether there were plans to Border Wall Dispute mission, BBC News reported. The resolution stop the building of a BMW assembly plant in The Peruvian government has recalled its approved Monday asks U.N. Secretary General Mexico, the chairman of BMW said no changes ambassador to Ecuador after the Ecuadorean Antonio Guterres to make recommendations were planned, and that the plant is scheduled government refused to stop building a border about the new mission’s size, operational to open in 2019. wall along a canal separating the two coun- aspects and mandate, CBS News and the AP tries, the Peruvian Foreign Affairs Ministry said reported. In January 2016, months before Co- Monday, Reuters reported. The wall, which is lombia’s government and the FARC signed their BUSINESS NEWS part of an urban revival project, comes as both peace accord, both sides had asked the United countries have expressed concerns over fl ood Nations to monitor any cease-fi re and disarma- Reinsurer IRB Brasil risks in the area. Peru said the wall violates a ment. Last month, Colombian President Juan peace treaty, while Ecuador said that it lament- Manuel Santos asked the Security Council to Files for Secondary ed Peru’s decision but added that Peru had not establish a new political mission for a three- responded to a request last week the discuss year period, “renewable if necessary.” Share Off ering the dispute in a high-level meeting. Reinsurance company IRB Brasil Resseguros ECONOMIC NEWS on Friday fi led for an initial public offering of shares, Reuters reported. The share sale will Workers at Chile’s Zaldivar Mexico’s Car be a secondary offering, with shareholders Copper Mine Vote to Strike including Fundo de Garantia de Operações de Workers at the Zaldivar copper mine in Chile, Exports to U.S. Rise Crédito Educativo, BB Seguros Participações, owned by Antofagasta and Barrick Gold, voted Bradesco Seguros and Itaú Seguros selling Monday to go on strike after talks with the in Year’s First Half some of their stakes as part of the offering, company failed, a union leader said, Reu- according to a prospectus on the Web site of ters reported Monday. Antofagasta, which The number of car exports from Mexico to the securities regulator CVM. Banco Bradesco’s manages labor relations at the mine, declined United States increased in the fi rst six months investment-banking unit will underwrite the of- to comment on the vote from the workers’ of this year, despite U.S. President Donald fering, alongside several other banks, including union, but said it would continue to work within Trump’s warnings that he would penalize car Banco do Brasil and JP Morgan Chase & Co. legal guidelines. There will be an at least fi ve companies that import cars and trucks from The reinsurer is backed by Brazil’s government, day-long government mediation period before Mexico to sell in the United States, CNBC which owns a stake of 27 percent, according to workers at the Zaldivar mine will walk off the reported Monday. Data from the Mexican Reinsurance News. ITB Brasil Re was formed work site. COPYRIGHT © 2017, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Tuesday, July 11, 2017 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 in 1939 in order to offer reinsurance to local insurance companies. It later became the coun- matters for a center-left that has always employment. Michelle Bachelet is leaving a try’s largest domestic reinsurance fi rm. counted the PDC within its ranks and implies legacy of structural reforms and is imposing both risks and possible rewards for the PDC an agenda of continuity in the New Majority itself.
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