MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Ongoing drought will drive food insecurity during the 2016/17 consumption year
KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for February 2016 An El Niño-related drought is ongoing in the South and West, with certain areas facing one of the driest rainy seasons in 35 years. Although sufficient rainfall in central and northern parts of country will contribute to near-average harvests in those areas, staple food production at a national-level will likely be below- average due to significant declines in production in drought-affected areas.
Poor households in the south, particularly in Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, Tsihombe and Ambovombe, will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between February and April 2016 due to the effects of two consecutive years of below-average crop production in 2014 and 2015 and an ongoing, extended lean season caused by drought-related delays in 2016 harvests.
Between April and August, main season harvests will slightly improve food insecurity in the South, although many households will still face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given the effects of expected below-average harvests. Crop
failures in the districts of Tsihombe and Ambovombe, however, will likely result Source: FEWS NET in a continuation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for affected populations in This map represents acute food insecurity these districts. outcomes relevant for emergency decision- making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/IPC for Looking towards the next lean season (December 2016 to February 2017), food more on this scale. insecurity will likely escalate across drought-affected areas of southern Madagascar both in terms of severity of outcomes and the magnitude of the food insecure population. Emergency humanitarian assistance to save lives, treat and prevent acute malnutrition, and protect livelihoods will be needed for worst-affected populations.
SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR
Source: FEWS NET
FEWS NET MADAGASCAR FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government
MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
NATIONAL OVERVIEW Projected food security outcomes, March to May 2016 Current Situation
Seasonal progress
Rainfall totals: According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), below-average rainfall levels and vegetation anomalies have been recorded during the 2015/16 rainy season to date (November to February) over southern and western Madagascar (Figures 1 – 3). Additionally, the temporal distribution of rainfall over southern areas was poor, particularly between December and January when crops planted in November were in the beginning stages of flowering, a time period when adequate water levels are particularly crucial for crop development. As a result, many initial crops in the far south failed with replanting activities occurring in January. Rainfall deficits and atypically high temperatures have also delayed agricultural activities and stunted crop growth in Atsimo Andrefana, Menabe, and Melaky. Source: FEWS NET
Cropped areas: In most northern and central areas of the country, including Projected food security outcomes, Sofia, Haute Matsiatra, Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Itasy, Vakinankaratra June to September 2016 and Bongolava, key informant reports indicate that the area planted this year was similar to last year’s levels. However, in the South, particularly in the Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock livelihood zone, the land area currently under cultivation is below typical levels. This is due to several factors including: 1) reduced seed availability after two consecutive below-average harvests in 2014 and 2015, 2) replanting activities in January after the first round of 2016 season crops failed, and 3) reduced labor availability for land preparation activities due to a high level of migration to mining areas and urban centers as a coping strategy after last year’s poor crop production.
Locusts: The third and last phase of the joint Government/FAO Migratory locust control program begun about seven months ago, although a financing gap of one million USD remains to be filled. Since the end of 2015, diffused adult populations of Malagasy Migratory locusts persisted in Bongolava, Befandriana, Belomatra, Vineta, the plains of Betsiriry, and the plains and plateaus of Morondava. However, these locusts were transiens degregans or solitary
individuals, in low to medium density. Source: FEWS NET These maps represent acute food insecurity Early rice harvests in central and northern areas: For regions that have two to outcomes relevant for emergency decision- making, and do not necessarily reflect three rice seasons per year, such as Diana, Sava, Analanjirofo and parts of chronic food insecurity. Visit Atsinanana, Bongolava, Vatovavy Fito Vinany, Ihosy and Analamanga, an on- www.fews.net/IPC for more on this scale. time rice harvest in January replenished household food stocks and brought an end to the 2016 lean season.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Figure 1. November 2015 to January Figure 2. NDVI anomalies as of Figure 3. Cumulative Eta Anomaly: 2016 CHIRPS rainfall estimates, February 29, 2015 Oct 1 – Feb 29, 2016 represented by z-score
Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Markets and trade
Prices for locally grown food products: At markets monitored by FEWS NET using Observatoire du Riz (OdR) price data, prices of locally grown products (maize, cassava, and gasy rice) were either stable or rose slightly between December 2015 and January 2016, at the peak of the lean season. Exceptions, however, were dried cassava in Ambovombre Androy, Antananarivo, Mahajanga, and Toiliara where prices fell by -5, -8, -17, and -9 percent, respectively. Compared to the 2011-2014 average1, prices were generally either stable or had increased moderately (less than 20 percent), other than for dried cassava in Ambovombe Androy where January prices were 40 percent above the average.
Prices for imported rice: In addition to locally grown rice, cassava, and maize, imported rice is an important staple food for many households in Madagascar. According to OdR’s price bulletins, imported rice prices in January 2016 were slightly above December 2014 levels (+2 to +17 percent) and were either similar to or above the 2011-2014 average (-1 to +16 percent). This is possibly due in part to the depreciation of the Malagasy ariary during recent years, whose value has declined 29 percent in February 2016 compared to the five-year average.
Other key factors
Humanitarian Assistance: USAID through local NGOs and WFP provided $4.5 million to support 120,000 beneficiaries between October 2015 and February 2016 through both in kind and cash transfer modalities. This assistance mainly targeted food insecure populations in the southern part of the country, including the districts of Amboasary Atsimo and the Androy region. While this assistance is helping beneficiary households meet their immediate food needs, the program is not yet funded beyond February. In the northern part of the country, under the coordination of the National Office of Disaster and Risk Management, partners provided safety net, food and temporary shelter for flood-affected people.
1 Comparisons are made to December 2014 and the 2011-2014 average because price data collection stopped between January and November 2015.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Figure 4. Imported rice prices in Figure 5. Gasy rice prices in January Figure 6. Cassava prices in January January 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2014 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2014 2014 average (in percentage terms) average (in percentage terms) average (in percentage terms)
Source: OdR Source: OdR Source: OdR
Assumptions The most likely scenario for the February to September 2016 period is based on the following national level assumptions:
Rainfall: Seasonal forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest an increased probability of below-average rainfall over western and southern Madagascar (ex. Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, Anosy, Melaky and Menabe regions) between March and May 2016. Meanwhile, for northern and central areas, these forecasts suggest normal rainfall while the SARCOF forecast indicates average to above-average rains between February and April. Consequently, FEWS NET is assuming below-average rainfall over southern and western Madagascar and average to above-average rainfall elsewhere. Locust situation: FEWS NET is assuming that given control operations that started in December and are planned to continue until June, the locust outbreak will not worsen or spread beyond currently affected zones. Resulting crop damages will be below an average year’s levels. Greens harvests: In most areas, green harvests will occur on time and at near average levels. However, in drought- affected areas of the South where crop development has been poor and behind schedule, green harvests will be delayed, contributing to an extension of the lean season. Crop production: Annual 2015/16 rice and maize crop production will be below average. While in the central and northern parts of Madagascar, sufficient rainfall levels will contribute to near-average production, national totals will be negatively affected by severe dryness recorded this year in the South and West. Crop harvests in these areas will likely be one month delayed and below average. Affected areas will include Boeny and Melaky, two surplus rice production areas, as well as Atsimo Andrefana, Anosy, Androy, Melaky, and Menabe regions. Flooding in northern Madagascar will likely result in localized production deficits although it is not expected to have any major impacts at a national level as flooding will not affect the second rice season (harvested in August) and the actual area flooded represents less than one percent of the total land area under rice paddy cultivation. In the south, cassava plants will be less impacted by the drought, although production will still be below average due to reductions in land area planted and early harvests that reduce overall yields. Agriculture labor: Below-average crop production linked to drought conditions, particularly in the South, will negatively affect the availability of labor work opportunities for work including weeding and harvesting. In the northern areas, agricultural wages will be near average expect for in localized areas affected by floods. Staple food prices: Due to expected below-average crop production, prices are expected to be above average during the scenario period. For gasy rice at most markets, prices will fall during the harvest period and reach their lowest levels around June. Prices will then increase at a slightly faster rate than usual at the end of the scenario period around August
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
and September. Similar trends are expected for maize and cassava, although cassava prices will reach their lowest levels in July/August after the cassava harvest. Prices are expected to be highest in far southern areas for maize and cassava where a third consecutive year of drought will result in atypically low supplies, along with above-average market dependency for poor households.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Households in most parts of Madagascar outside of the South will continue Figure 7. 35 Year Dryness Rank October to have relatively normal access to food due to normal income levels, crops 2015 to February 22, 2016 from own production and regular market supplies from 2016 harvests and rice imports. As a result most areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between February and September 2016.
However, in far southern areas, food insecurity is expected to be elevated due to the impacts of several consecutive years of below-average production on food and incomes sources. To cope, atypical migration, livestock sales, and the early consumption of unripe watermelon and cactus ha ve been observed during the first quarter of 2016. Despite these coping efforts, households in worst-affected areas will still be unable to meet basic food consumption requirements and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the start of the next maize harvest in April. Meanwhile, in neighboring areas where the drought impacts have been less severe, households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the harvests.
Although harvests will likely be below average, with localized crop failures, food security outcomes are expected to improve for most households between May and September due to small food stocks from own production and declining food prices on local markets. During this time period, most poor households in drought-affected areas of the South will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes. However, many Source: USGS/FEWS NET poor households in the districts of Tsihombe and Ambovombe will likely face a near complete crop failure and will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity.
Additionally, poor households in certain areas of Melaky and Menebe will likely have below-average harvests this year and will begin to have difficulties affording both essential food and nonfood expenditures once household food stocks deplete earlier than usual. As a result, these households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) for the majority of the June to September period.
Looking towards the next lean season (December 2016 to February 2017), food insecurity will likely escalate across drought- affected areas of southern Madagascar both in terms of severity of outcomes and the magnitude of the food insecure population. Emergency humanitarian assistance to save lives, treat and prevent acute malnutrition, and protect livelihoods will be needed for worst-affected populations.
AREAS OF CONCERN
Livelihood zone 24: Districts of Tsihombe and Ambovombe (Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock rearing livelihood zone)
This zone is located in the southernmost part of the country and is known for being the country’s driest (semi-arid) area, with an average rainfall of only 300 mm/year in southern parts. This zone is typically a cassava surplus producing zone and the country’s highest producer of dried cassava. Maize production is the second most important crop in the zone, and is more often sold for cash rather than consumed on the farm. Rice is by far the least common crop in the zone. Typically, poor households hold less than a half of hectares and less than five small ruminants.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Current Situation Figure 8. Wilting maize from the first round of maize plantings Previous season’s production levels: Most in Ambonaivo, district of Ambovombe, Région Androy, mid- households across all wealth groups are currently January 2016 relying on market purchases for cereal staples as their food stocks from last year’s production depleted in July – September, or two to four months earlier than normal. The 2014-15 CFSAM shows maize and cassava production decreased 66 and 77 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year averages.
Atypical coping strategies and asset depletion: Based on a FEWS NET field assessment conducted in January 2016, poor local households, particularly in Tsihombe, were relying on sales of unripe cactus peas and firewood to generate cash incomes during the unusually harsh lean season. More household
members than usual had also migrated to urban Source: FEWS NET municipalities in order seeking labor opportunities such as fetching water for better off households and Figure 9. Rainfall in Androy for every 10-day period during carrying luggage at bus stations. Daily wages earned the 2015/16 rainy season compared to the short-term average, by these migrants were roughly 25 to 50 percent in mm (CHIRPS) below average, however, due to increased labor supply. Households also reported above-average levels of borrowing, which they would have to reimburse after the start of the harvests. About 60 to 80 percent of households had also begun depleting assets by selling off above-average levels of goats, lambs, poultry and even kitchen items, particularly in the district of Ambovombe, Beloha and Tsihombe, between October 2015 and January 2016.
Seasonal progress: The first rains received in early November were followed by abnormal dryness
through mid-December and two dry spells during the Source: USGS months of January and February. This resulted in parts of this zone experiencing one of the driest rainy seasons in the past 35 years. A combination of the erratic rainfall, atypically high local migration and limited access to seeds and inputs resulted in a significant decrease in the area planted in maize this year. Additionally, maize grain planted in November wilted in many cases and nearly 40-60 percent were written off. Although middle and better-off households then replanted, many poor households could not as they did not have additional cash available for seed purchases. Cropping conditions for cassava is much better although many households prioritized short-cycle crops, such as maize and horticultural crops (ex. pumpkins and watermelons), over cassava production due to a long and harsh 2015-2016 lean season and very small landholdings. Horticultural crops have also been threatened by the poor rains and were in many cases harvested before their maturity in order to meet food gaps.
Labor incomes: During the peak of the lean season, poor households usually get additional income for staple food purchases from casual labor. However this year, these opportunities are very limited due to the reduced cropped area and poor crop development. An increase in the number of people seeking casual labor work compared to the limited number of opportunities has significantly reduced labor rates. For example, in Ambovombe and rural Tsihombe, wages are approximately 33 percent below average.
Market prices: Despite poor local production in 2015 in the surrounding area, staple food prices (dried cassava, white maize, milled rice, and gasy rice) in January 2016 at the market of Ambovombe were either similar to or below December
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
2014 levels, according to data from the Observatoire du Riz (OdR). However, compared to the 2011 – 2014 four-year average, the price of dried cassava increased 40 percent, likely due to poor supply levels in the zone. Prices changes for maize, milled rice, and gasy rice were significantly less large at 9 percent, -1 percent, and 5 percent, respectively.
Humanitarian assistance: The US government funded $4.5 million in humanitarian assistance, which though local NGOs and WFP targeted 120,000 beneficiaries in the districts of Amboasary, Ambovombe, Tsihombe, Beloha, Bekily and part of Atsimo Andrefana region between October 2015 and February 2016. Additionally, following the failure of the first round of 2015/16 maize crops, the government provided the following assistance:
o The Ministry of Agriculture provided 450kg of sorghum seeds, as well as 50,000 cassava cuttings and 7 MT of sweet potatoes cuttings to boost the restart of the season in the municipalities of Beraketa, Bekily and Andalatanosy; and
o The Ministry of Population distributed unconditional food assistance to 2,000 beneficiary households in the municipalities of Anjampaly, Nikoly, Antaritarika and Behazomanga. This humanitarian assistance included 19 MT of maize, as well as 20,000 bags of fortified food for children.
Current food sources: According to FEWS NET’s field assessment to the zone in January 2016, many poor households were only consuming one meal per day, which compares to two to three meals per day normally. Additionally, households reported that they had begun harvesting unripe cactus peas, watermelons, and pumpkin leaves earlier than they normally would due to ongoing food deficits.
Assumptions
The most likely scenario for the February to September Figure 10. Price projections for maize in Ambovombre 2016 period is based on the following zone level (MGA/kg) assumptions:
Extension of the lean season: Delayed crop development will result in an extension of the current lean season by a month, or to late April 2016. Below-average rainfall during the remainder of the season: Based on the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), southern parts of Madagascar will likely receive below-normal rains from February
through April. Using CHIRPS and RFE rainfall Source of data: OdR, Source of projections: FEWS NET estimates to date, historical rainfall trends, and the assumption of below-average (lower tercile) rainfall for the remainder of the season, FEWS NET estimates that rainfall totals in the zone will be between 300 and 330 mm, or roughly 34 to 40 percent below average. Maize grain typically requires at least 400mm of rainfall to mature. Staple and cash crop production: Due to the effects of below-average rainfall and high temperatures, maize, black-eyed peas, and cowpea yields are expected to be well below-average with areas of total crop failure. Additionally, cassava production will be lower than average, despite being less affected by the drought, as households harvest tubers before they have reached full size, as a coping strategy. Maize grain prices: Although maize prices will likely fall between late April and May due to increased availability with the ongoing harvest, household demand will still likely be atypically strong due to below-average crop production and a strong dependence on market purchases to meet food needs. As a result, maize prices will likely increase at an atypically fast rate starting in June to moderately above-average levels by the end of the outlook period in September. At the market of Ambovombe, an analysis of historical price trends suggest that, at a minimum, maize grain prices will likely be 30 to 70 percent above the 2011 – 2014 average (Figure 10). Livestock conditions: Although the availability of crop residues from abandoned, wilted crops from the first round of plantings will serve as cattle feed, animal body conditions are expected to be poorer than usual due to atypically poor pasture conditions caused by the ongoing drought.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Livestock sales: Most poor households primarily own small livestock, such as chickens and goats, and due to the consecutive years of drought, many have already sold off the majority of their stock. For those who still have animals to sell, prices (for both small and large livestock) will be atypically poor due to 1) increased supply as households sell additional animals to access food and 2) below-average livestock body conditions. Reduced labor and income source: The availability of on-farm casual labor opportunities will be 20 percent below average because of the low crop production. Increased availability of laborers compared to limited opportunities will also likely result in significant decrease in labor wages and total incomes from this source. Remittances: Households’ reliance on remittances will increase significantly compared to normal as additional people migrate to neighboring towns and cities to generate income to afford basic food expenditures. Debt: Due to current difficulties accessing food, households will acquire above-average levels of debt between now and the start of the maize harvests in April. Many households will likely to use cassava harvests, which are expected in July- September, to replay these loans. This, along with the early harvests, will likely drive a premature exhaustion of cassava food stocks two months earlier than normal, or as early as August to October.
Figure 11. Breakdown of cumulative rainfall modeling results for Androy based on rainfall levels to date (CHIRPS and RFE), rainfall trends during recent years, and seasonal forecasts
Minimal Water Requirements for Maize: 400mm
Most-likely cumulative rainfall totals: 300 to 330mm
Source: FEWS NET
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes With the lean season expected to extend into April due to the delay in crop development, atypical coping and asset stripping (intense livestock sales, consumption and sale of unripen crops, migration, debt etc.) will likely continue. However, these coping strategies will not enable households to fully meet their food requirements and as a result, food consumption gaps in line with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to continue until April.
Towards the end of April, the start of the main harvests will slightly improve food availability and consumption, although this is not expected to last long as most households will see significantly below-average harvests. Additionally, households who experience a complete crop failure will continue to struggle to meet food consumption requirements. Consequently, the zone will remain in Crisis (Phase 3) between June and September.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Livelihood zone 22 : District of Amboasary (Center-south: staple crops, industrial sisal, zebu livelihood zone)
On average, this zone receives between 400 to 800mm of Figure 12. Rainfall in Amboasary for every 10-day period rain during the year. About two thirds of the zone have during the 2015/16 rainy season compared to the short-term two rice cropping seasons, with the main rice season average, in mm (CHIRPS) normally sown in December-January and harvested in April-May. In addition to rice, maize, sweet potatoes and cassava are also grown. However, despite own production, poor household usually rely on market purchases to access food during the lean season (December to February). Agricultural labor is a key source of income for poor households, particularly between February and June. In addition, more than 75 percent of households normally raise small ruminants. Zone 22 also has a colonial sisal plantation that attracts labor, even from neighboring zones.
Current Situation Source: USGS
Figure 13. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Seasonal progress: The 2015/16 season has been over time in Amboasary, compared to last year and the short- characterized by below-average and poorly term average distributed rainfall. This situation is reflected in various remote sensing data, including CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates (Figure 12) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of greenness (Figure 13). Data also suggests that parts of this zone are experiencing one of the driest rainy seasons in the past 35 years. Main staple crops, including maize, sweet potatoes, and rice have been affected. In particular, the prolonged dryness has resulted in less cropped area for maize, as well as stressed conditions resulting in 50 percent of the planted crops wilting. This comes at a time where maize production was already down by 81 percent Source: USGS during the previous 2014/15 season. Cassava, on the other hand, is in good condition due to its resistant nature to dryness, although the area cropped is generally below normal due to a reduced availability of cassava cuttings this year.
Incomes: The low cropped area, as well as delayed rice planting, has reduced the availability of casual agriculture opportunities, leading to low incomes for poor households who normally depend on these activities. Additionally, poor rainfall has affected the normal development of reeds which households use as raw materials for self-employment activities such as handicraft making. This has reduced income levels for households who typically earn cash from the sale of these products.
Humanitarian assistance: WFP is currently providing food-for-work assistance in the municipality of Amboasary atsimo, targeting 600 households, or 3,000 beneficiaries.
Food consumption: Food consumption patterns are currently poor due to the effects of below-average 2014/15 crop production and atypically low cash incomes from typical sources. Despite asset stripping, including selling atypically high levels of small livestock in an attempt to improve food access, many poor households are currently relying on wild foods, including immature cactus peas, watermelons and pumpkins leaves, as the main component of their diets.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
Assumptions The most likely scenario for the February to September 2016 period is based on the following zone level assumptions:
Below-average rainfall during the remainder of the season: Based on the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), southern parts of Madagascar will likely receive below normal rains from February through April. Using CHIRPS and RFE rainfall estimates to date, historical rainfall trends, and the assumption of below-average (lower tercile) rainfall for the remainder of the season, FEWS NET estimates that rainfall totals in the zone will be between 380 and 460 mm, or roughly 44 to 53 percent below-average. Maize grain typically requires at least 400mm of rainfall to mature. Crop production: Although the probability that cumulative rainfall totals will meet minimal water requirements is higher in the district of Amboasary compared to the districts of Tsihombe and Ambovombe, rice, sweet potato and maize harvests in April and May will still likely be well below average across the livelihood zone due to below-average rainfall levels. In addition, due to delayed rice planting and a prolonged dry spell which affected sweet potatoes tuber development, harvesting of this crop, which normally take place in May and June, will likely be delayed by a month. Cassava harvests in August will also be below average due to a reduction in the land area cropped. In addition, cassava will likely be harvested earlier than normal because of the poor main harvest. Below average incomes: Income from crop sales is likely to be below average due to anticipated low production of pulses (black-eyed peas and beans) and groundnuts in May and June which are some of the crops that poor households normally sell to raise cash for both food and other nonfood expenditures. Casual labor opportunities will also remain below normal due to a reduction in employment opportunities caused by anticipated poor harvests. Additionally, income from waged and self-employment activities, such as hand crafts, is expected to be below normal due to a reduced availability of reeds, a key raw material. Figure 14. Breakdown of cumulative rainfall modeling results for Amboasary based on rainfall levels to date (CHIRPS and RFE), rainfall trends during recent years, and seasonal forecasts
Most-likely cumulative rainfall totals: 380 to 460mm
Minimal Water Requirements for Maize: 400mm
Source: FEWS NET Most Likely Food Security Outcomes During the first two months of the outlook (February and March), households will not be able to meet their basic food requirements without damaging copping strategies such as unsustainable livestock sales and the harvesting of immature crops. Food consumption gaps amongst poor households will continue, in line with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity.
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MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016
From June to September, most households will likely be able to meet their food needs given the short relief provided by ongoing crop harvests. However, given the below-normal production levels and strong depletion of assets from previous years, households will still not be able to minimally meet their non-food expenditure and will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food security outcomes. However, as food stocks deplete later in the consumption year, the severity of food insecurity in this zone will likely worsen beyond September.
EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK
Table 1: Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario. Areas Events Impact on food security conditions Depreciation of the Malagasy ariary Increased prices for imported goods and fuel, which could erode the purchasing power of poor households and limit food access. In this scenario, a larger number of people would likely be food insecure. Anti-locust campaign is 2015/2016 harvests would be significantly below average for local unsuccessful and there is an rice and maize, causing a significant reduction in household food National expansion of the area under threat stock levels and agricultural-related incomes (crop sales and by locusts to include areas that agricultural labor). Low market supply would also cause a currently are experiencing little to continuation of atypically high prices. A larger proportion of no locust activities households and more areas could face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. Coastal areas Strong cyclone Crop production would be below average. Flooding would displace households, cause damage to transportation infrastructure and housing, and increase emergency needs Livelihood Increased humanitarian assistance Humanitarian assistance by the Government and other responding zones 22 and agencies could improve food consumption and protect livelihoods. 24 in the south
ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. To learn more about this approach to scenario development, visit www.fews.net/scenario_development.
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