MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 Ongoing drought will drive food insecurity during the 2016/17 consumption year KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for February 2016 An El Niño-related drought is ongoing in the South and West, with certain areas facing one of the driest rainy seasons in 35 years. Although sufficient rainfall in central and northern parts of country will contribute to near-average harvests in those areas, staple food production at a national-level will likely be below- average due to significant declines in production in drought-affected areas. Poor households in the south, particularly in Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, Tsihombe and Ambovombe, will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity between February and April 2016 due to the effects of two consecutive years of below-average crop production in 2014 and 2015 and an ongoing, extended lean season caused by drought-related delays in 2016 harvests. Between April and August, main season harvests will slightly improve food insecurity in the South, although many households will still face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes given the effects of expected below-average harvests. Crop failures in the districts of Tsihombe and Ambovombe, however, will likely result Source: FEWS NET in a continuation of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes for affected populations in This map represents acute food insecurity these districts. outcomes relevant for emergency decision- making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/IPC for Looking towards the next lean season (December 2016 to February 2017), food more on this scale. insecurity will likely escalate across drought-affected areas of southern Madagascar both in terms of severity of outcomes and the magnitude of the food insecure population. Emergency humanitarian assistance to save lives, treat and prevent acute malnutrition, and protect livelihoods will be needed for worst-affected populations. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET MADAGASCAR FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Projected food security outcomes, March to May 2016 Current Situation Seasonal progress Rainfall totals: According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), below-average rainfall levels and vegetation anomalies have been recorded during the 2015/16 rainy season to date (November to February) over southern and western Madagascar (Figures 1 – 3). Additionally, the temporal distribution of rainfall over southern areas was poor, particularly between December and January when crops planted in November were in the beginning stages of flowering, a time period when adequate water levels are particularly crucial for crop development. As a result, many initial crops in the far south failed with replanting activities occurring in January. Rainfall deficits and atypically high temperatures have also delayed agricultural activities and stunted crop growth in Atsimo Andrefana, Menabe, and Melaky. Source: FEWS NET Cropped areas: In most northern and central areas of the country, including Projected food security outcomes, Sofia, Haute Matsiatra, Alaotra Mangoro, Analamanga, Itasy, Vakinankaratra June to September 2016 and Bongolava, key informant reports indicate that the area planted this year was similar to last year’s levels. However, in the South, particularly in the Extreme south: cassava, maize, and livestock livelihood zone, the land area currently under cultivation is below typical levels. This is due to several factors including: 1) reduced seed availability after two consecutive below-average harvests in 2014 and 2015, 2) replanting activities in January after the first round of 2016 season crops failed, and 3) reduced labor availability for land preparation activities due to a high level of migration to mining areas and urban centers as a coping strategy after last year’s poor crop production. Locusts: The third and last phase of the joint Government/FAO Migratory locust control program begun about seven months ago, although a financing gap of one million USD remains to be filled. Since the end of 2015, diffused adult populations of Malagasy Migratory locusts persisted in Bongolava, Befandriana, Belomatra, Vineta, the plains of Betsiriry, and the plains and plateaus of Morondava. However, these locusts were transiens degregans or solitary individuals, in low to medium density. Source: FEWS NET These maps represent acute food insecurity Early rice harvests in central and northern areas: For regions that have two to outcomes relevant for emergency decision- making, and do not necessarily reflect three rice seasons per year, such as Diana, Sava, Analanjirofo and parts of chronic food insecurity. Visit Atsinanana, Bongolava, Vatovavy Fito Vinany, Ihosy and Analamanga, an on- www.fews.net/IPC for more on this scale. time rice harvest in January replenished household food stocks and brought an end to the 2016 lean season. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 Figure 1. November 2015 to January Figure 2. NDVI anomalies as of Figure 3. Cumulative Eta Anomaly: 2016 CHIRPS rainfall estimates, February 29, 2015 Oct 1 – Feb 29, 2016 represented by z-score Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/FEWS NET Source: USGS/FEWS NET Markets and trade Prices for locally grown food products: At markets monitored by FEWS NET using Observatoire du Riz (OdR) price data, prices of locally grown products (maize, cassava, and gasy rice) were either stable or rose slightly between December 2015 and January 2016, at the peak of the lean season. Exceptions, however, were dried cassava in Ambovombre Androy, Antananarivo, Mahajanga, and Toiliara where prices fell by -5, -8, -17, and -9 percent, respectively. Compared to the 2011-2014 average1, prices were generally either stable or had increased moderately (less than 20 percent), other than for dried cassava in Ambovombe Androy where January prices were 40 percent above the average. Prices for imported rice: In addition to locally grown rice, cassava, and maize, imported rice is an important staple food for many households in Madagascar. According to OdR’s price bulletins, imported rice prices in January 2016 were slightly above December 2014 levels (+2 to +17 percent) and were either similar to or above the 2011-2014 average (-1 to +16 percent). This is possibly due in part to the depreciation of the Malagasy ariary during recent years, whose value has declined 29 percent in February 2016 compared to the five-year average. Other key factors Humanitarian Assistance: USAID through local NGOs and WFP provided $4.5 million to support 120,000 beneficiaries between October 2015 and February 2016 through both in kind and cash transfer modalities. This assistance mainly targeted food insecure populations in the southern part of the country, including the districts of Amboasary Atsimo and the Androy region. While this assistance is helping beneficiary households meet their immediate food needs, the program is not yet funded beyond February. In the northern part of the country, under the coordination of the National Office of Disaster and Risk Management, partners provided safety net, food and temporary shelter for flood-affected people. 1 Comparisons are made to December 2014 and the 2011-2014 average because price data collection stopped between January and November 2015. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 MADAGASCAR Food Security Outlook February to September 2016 Figure 4. Imported rice prices in Figure 5. Gasy rice prices in January Figure 6. Cassava prices in January January 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2014 2016 compared to the 2011 – 2014 2014 average (in percentage terms) average (in percentage terms) average (in percentage terms) Source: OdR Source: OdR Source: OdR Assumptions The most likely scenario for the February to September 2016 period is based on the following national level assumptions: Rainfall: Seasonal forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest an increased probability of below-average rainfall over western and southern Madagascar (ex. Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, Anosy, Melaky and Menabe regions) between March and May 2016. Meanwhile, for northern and central areas, these forecasts suggest normal rainfall while the SARCOF forecast indicates average to above-average rains between February and April. Consequently, FEWS NET is assuming below-average rainfall over southern and western Madagascar and average to above-average rainfall elsewhere. Locust situation: FEWS NET is assuming that given control operations that started in December and are planned to continue until June, the locust outbreak will not worsen or spread beyond currently affected zones. Resulting crop damages will be below an average year’s levels. Greens harvests: In most areas, green harvests will occur on time and at near average levels. However, in drought- affected areas of the South where crop development has been poor and behind schedule, green harvests will be delayed, contributing to an extension