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Cost Analysis of Evtol Configuration Design for an Air Ambulances System in Japan Purdue University Purdue e-Pubs CESUN Conference Cost Analysis of eVTOL Configuration Design for an Air Ambulances System in Japan Yusuke Mihara Keio University Payuhavorakulchai Pawnlada Keio University Aki Nakamoto Keio University Tsubasa Nakamura Keio University Masaru Nakano Keio University Follow this and additional works at: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/cesun Mihara, Yusuke; Pawnlada, Payuhavorakulchai; Nakamoto, Aki; Nakamura, Tsubasa; and Nakano, Masaru, "Cost Analysis of eVTOL Configuration Design for an Air Ambulances System in Japan" (2021). CESUN Conference. 3. https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/cesun/cesun2020/papers/3 This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information. Cost Analysis of eVTOL Configuration Design for an Air Ambulance System in Japan Yusuke Mihara Payuhavorakulchai Pawnlanda Aki Nakamoto Dept. of System Design and Dept. of System Design and Dept. of System Design and Management Management Management Keio University Keio University Keio University Yokohama, Japan Yokohama, Japan Yokohama, Japan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Tsubasa Nakamura Masaru Nakano Dept. of System Design and Dept. of System Design and Management Management Keio University Keio University Yokohama, Japan Yokohama, Japan [email protected] [email protected] Abstract—Electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) cost per seat mile by 26% compared to helicopters [3]. The aircraft, known as urban air mobility or flying cars, are being safety of air EMS (Emergent Medical Services)will also be considered for widespread use as air taxis, emergency medical further increased by the development of flight controls, sense- transportation, sightseeing vehicles, and rural transportation, and-avoid technologies, and fully autonomous aircraft, owing to their reduced-size, low-cost, and low-noise consequently reducing the current problem of a high crash rate characteristics. In this study, we conduct an interview at a [4]. Japanese hospital that currently uses a helicopter for medical emergencies to output the mission profile. Due to current In the usual case, four passengers, including a pilot, doctor, battery-technology limitations, the new air ambulance, which nurse, and passenger, are onboard for medical services. Due will deliver a doctor to a patient, is conceived as having 2 to battery-technology limitations, a 4-passenger vehicle will passengers, including the pilot. Two eVTOL configurations are be available in the year 2025 only if hybrid systems are studied: a fixed-wing craft and a multi-rotor. The purpose of introduced. Hence, to cover needs in the year 2025, eVTOL this study is to develop a cost model for a new air ambulance capable of carrying 2 passengers (a doctor and a pilot) to the through a combination of 3 approaches: top-down, bottom-up, site of an emergency is proposed. Accordingly, the cost model and parametric. The cost model is constructed to analyze the for verifying the viability of 2-passenger eVTOL is studied in production cost of each configuration, broken down into the this research. capital expense and direct operating cost. The result shows that the multi-rotor’s production cost is lower than the fixed-wing Conventional aircraft-cost estimation is performed using craft. The direct operating cost of a fixed-wing craft at high the cost-estimating relationship (CER) or a statistical equation flight hours is higher than that of the multi-rotor. Scenario such as the Eastlake cost model [5] to predict an aircraft’s analysis shows a result that the capacity difference of a battery acquisition cost using only typical input variables such as has a significant difference in the cost in the years 2020 and 2030 empty weight, maximum velocity, and production volume. due to the high cost of battery replacement. The CER method breaks down costs into subcomponents such as material and engine-production costs. Hence, eVTOL’s Keywords—eVTOL, configuration, cost analysis, systems electric-systems components, including batteries, motors, and engineering propellers, and additional costs, including ballistic parachute I. INTRODUCTION systems and sense-and-avoid systems, can be integrated into conventional cost estimation for cost analysis of the eVTOL In Japan, emergency medical helicopters are known as configuration design. For components regarded as automotive “doctor helicopters,” since doctors are onboard and are parts, cost estimation is related to automotive-manufacturing transported with the medical team to the site of the emergency. cost. Current eVTOL cost studies conduct estimates based on These systems ensure early treatment and result in high the vehicle cost per unit weight, especially for fixed-wing patient-survival rates according to HEM-net’s research. Due aircraft [6], and profitability analysis is necessary for air-taxi to the high running cost of approximately 250-million yen utility [7]. This research focuses upon collecting actual data in annually, doctor helicopters have not yet been fully deployed Japan related to an air ambulance’s requirements, and throughout Japan [1]. Operators in the field also face problems discusses the components affecting cost, such as battery of low ride quality due to noise and vibration, which utilization and deterioration. With this objective and the complicate in-flight operation [2]. available data, the selected methodologies are a combination To find the best solution to the helicopter’s problems with of top-down, bottom-up, and parametric-cost equation. cost, noise, and performance, short/vertical-takeoff-and- The purpose of this research is to estimate the cost of landing (S/VTOL) aircraft, have long been developed, but eVTOL by developing a mathematical-cost model and only some designs are safely operable. Electrical vertical inputting different commercial-configuration designs for takeoff and landing (eVTOL), which has promising small- analysis. We aim to verify that the eVTOL’s cost will be lower size, low-cost, and low-noise characteristics, is anticipated to than the current expected cost; hence, the total cost of an air relieve problems and enhance existing helicopters for use in ambulance will need to be lower than the Japanese urban areas. eVTOL is expected to reduce the total operating government’s budget. Guidelines on the expected amount of eVTOL production for the needs of air-ambulance service, component such as pilot or operating cost will need to be and realistic cost estimation for each configuration for aircraft analyzed in relation to Japan’s current pilot salary. With past- for operators interested in expanding eVTOLs to air- cost data in combination, it is possible to make a reasonable ambulance usage are proposed in this study. Commercial approximation with less time. This technique will require configurations, including fixed-wing vectored thrust with 2 knowledge and judgment to identify the analogies and different propulsors for each configuration and multi-rotors, differences between the two products. The difficulty in were collected from various companies; these include A3 implementing this technique is that it requires an appropriate Vahana’s tilt-wing [8], Lilium jet’s fixed-wing [9], and baseline and detailed data [15]. Volocopter 2X’s wingless multirotor [10] aircraft. We expect that this study will increase access to air-ambulance service in This research paper uses the combination of the parametric Japan. approach, the bottom-up approach, and the top-down approach for the cost analysis of eVTOLs of both fixed-wing This paper consists of 5 sections. Section 2 will introduce and multi-rotor configurations. Conventional studies on the methods to achieve the goal. Section 3 will show the results of cost-estimation relationship of the airframe [11], direct cost estimation. Section 4 will discuss our findings. The operating cost, propeller-cost estimation [16], battery cost per overall study will be summarized in the last section. kWh [17], sense and avoid systems’ cost per lb [5], and motor cost from the automotive industry [18] are combined with II. METHOD parachute cost and ducted fan part which is constructed from A. Survey on a conventional study survey in the market. In subsection B,C and D, cost estimation will further be separated into direct-operation cost and capital During conceptual design, cost estimation is based upon expense. statistical data. A statistical cost-estimation method is called the CER. The cost equation is obtained by plotting the cost B. Cost Model data of many airplanes, and various datasets are analyzed by The cost model for an eVTOL is consisted of capital curve-fit programs. Hence, the equation has no fundamental expense and direct operation cost (DOC) (Figure 1). Capital physics. Instead, it only needs the basic input variables, expense of the configuration will be distinguished for different including the aircraft’s empty weight, maximum velocity, and types of propulsor, where CapExP (Capital expense for the production quantity to obtain cost. This method is easy to configuration with a propeller) is used for analysis of Vahana implement; however, its drawbacks are that it is difficult to and Volocopter 2X. Both configurations share variable-pitch develop, since the cost model itself is very specific to the past propellers, but differ in size and number of propellers as a model and technological change cannot be represented [11]. reference to the commercial model. CapExD (Capital expense In the bottom-up approach, the cost of each element is for the configuration with a ducted fan) shows a ducted-fan- calculated and added to form a total cost. This method requires type configuration, which is a Lilium jet. The fixed cost, an understanding of the process [12]. It can be performed on which will not change depending on a vehicle’s weight, an activity, operation, or even a feature basis. The bottom-up velocity, propulsion systems etc., including SAACost, is given approach is an information-intensive method, since it by: generates cost estimation from the lowest level [13].
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