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Downloaded 09/29/21 02:26 PM UTC 1714 JOURNAL of APPLIED METEOROLOGY and CLIMATOLOGY VOLUME 54 AUGUST 2015 T H E O B A L D E T A L . 1713 A Synoptic Classification of Inflow-Generating Precipitation in the Snowy Mountains, Australia ALISON THEOBALD AND HAMISH MCGOWAN Climate Research Group, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia JOHANNA SPEIRS Snowy Hydro, Ltd., Sydney, New South Wales, Australia NIK CALLOW Environmental Dynamics and Ecohydrology, School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia (Manuscript received 24 October 2014, in final form 23 April 2015) ABSTRACT Precipitation falling in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides fuel for hydroelectric power generation and environmental flows along major river systems, as well as critical water resources for agricultural irrigation. A synoptic climatology of daily precipitation that triggers a quantifiable increase in streamflow in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains region is presented for the period 1958–2012. Here, previous synoptic-meteorological studies of the region are extended by using a longer-term, year-round precipitation and reanalysis dataset combined with a novel, automated synoptic-classification technique. A three-dimensional representation of synoptic circulation is developed by effectively combining meteorological variables through the depth of the troposphere. Eleven distinct synoptic types are identified, describing key circulation features and moisture pathways that deliver precipitation to the Snowy Mountains. Synoptic types with the highest precipitation totals are commonly associated with moisture pathways originating from the northeast and northwest of Australia. These systems generate the greatest precipitation totals across the westerly and high-elevation areas of the Snowy Mountains, but precipitation is reduced in the eastern-elevation areas in the lee of the mountain ranges. In eastern regions, synoptic types with onshore transport of humid air from the Tasman Sea are the major source of precipitation. Strong seasonality in synoptic types is evident, with frontal and cutoff-low types dominating in winter and inland heat troughs prevailing in summer. Interaction between tropical and extratropical systems is evident in all seasons. 1. Introduction Mountains are one of only a few alpine regions in Aus- tralia. They form the highest part of the Great Dividing Inflows generated from precipitation falling in the Range and include Australia’s highest peak—Mount Snowy Mountains region provide vital water sources for Kosciusko—at 2228 m (Fig. 1). In contrast to younger irrigation and environmental flows in the agriculturally mountain ranges such as the European Alps, the topog- important and ecologically diverse Murray–Darling ba- raphy is not as steep, rugged, or high in elevation; instead, sin, as well as fuel for hydroelectric power generation. areas of undulating tablelands dominate the region. Located in southeastern Australia (SEA), the Snowy In response to a series of severe droughts in the region, construction began on the Snowy Mountains Hydro- Electric Scheme (‘‘Scheme’’ hereinafter) in 1949. The Corresponding author address: Alison Theobald, School of Scheme consists of a complex network of dams, hydro- Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, Level 4, Chamberlain Bldg., University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queens- electric power stations, tunnels, aqueducts, and pipelines land, 4072, Australia. that are able to divert eastward-flowing rivers under the E-mail: [email protected] mountain range inland to the Murray and Murrumbidgee DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0278.1 Ó 2015 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/29/21 02:26 PM UTC 1714 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY VOLUME 54 FIG. 1. (a) Location of the Snowy Mountains region within Australia (red box) and the synoptic-analysis region (dashed line). (b) Snowy Mountains region showing the water catchment (solid black line) and precipitation gauges used in this study (red squares indicate gauges on the western elevations, blue diamonds indicate gauges on the high elevations, green triangles indicate gauges on the eastern slopes, and black dots indicate the gauges from the SILO dataset). Inflow gauges at Snowy River and Yarrangobilly River are marked with asterisks. Rivers. The Scheme provides on average 2360 Gl of water 2009), generating as much as 50% of the total annual per year for irrigation, underwriting AUD $3 billion of inflows to the hydroelectric catchments (Snowy Hydro agricultural production in the Murray–Darling basin. Limited 2003). Although the warmer months are gen- Furthermore, the water provides environmental flows erally drier, heavy rainfall can result from trajectories of along major rivers and offers a degree of flow regulation warm, moist air from lower latitudes and small-scale (Snowy Hydro Limited 2003; Ghassemi and White convective events that generate thunderstorms (Barry 2007; see also http://www.mdba.gov.au/about-basin/ 1992; Basist et al. 1994; Snowy Hydro Limited 2003). how-river-runs/murrumbidgee-catchment). The Scheme’s Orographic enhancement of precipitation also occurs in hydroelectric power generation meets the peak power summer as north and northwesterly winds flow perpen- demand for much of eastern Australia and currently dicular to the Snowy Mountains (Chubb et al. 2011). provides 32% of all renewable annual energy produc- The Snowy Mountains region lies toward the northern tion in Australia (http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/energy/ limits of the influence of the midlatitude westerly wind hydro/snowy-mountains-scheme). belt, where interaction between tropical and extra- The Snowy Mountains are typically one of Australia’s tropical weather systems is an important factor in the wettest regions, but the precipitation is highly variable. generation of precipitation (Wright 1989). Accordingly, Annual precipitation from days with $10 mm of this region is sensitive to changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in high-elevation regions of the Snowy the subtropical ridge (STR) and shifts in the westerly Mountains varied between 2800 and 760 mm between storm tracks (Drosdowsky 2005; Murphy and Timbal 1958 and 2012 (Fig. 2). High precipitation variability 2008; Verdon-Kidd et al. 2013; Timbal and Drosdowsky also exists on intra-annual time scales. Precipitation in 2013), as well as hydrological-cycle changes in a warm- winter and spring is heavily influenced by the prevailing ing climate that can dramatically affect seasonal pre- midlatitude westerly winds in conjunction with oro- cipitation and runoff (Beniston 2003; Viviroli et al. graphic enhancement, and these are commonly consid- 2011). In addition, the ascent mechanisms that are re- ered to be the wettest seasons (Snowy Hydro Limited sponsible for providing deep convective moisture and 2003; Pook et al. 2006; Cai and Cowan 2008; thus the potential for higher precipitation totals in the Ummenhofer et al. 2009; Chubb et al. 2011). High- Snowy Mountains vary seasonally. intensity and warm spring rains falling onto the snow- Historic snow-course data have shown significant de- pack are a major source of inflows (McGowan et al. clines in snow depth (Nicholls 2005; Hennessy et al. Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/29/21 02:26 PM UTC AUGUST 2015 T H E O B A L D E T A L . 1715 FIG. 2. (top) Annual precipitation across the western (plus signs), high (squares), and eastern (asterisks) elevations and (bottom) annual number of precipitation days $ 10 mm for the pe- riod 1958–2012. 2008) in association with rising alpine temperatures. Strengthening of the East Australia Current and asso- Climate-change modeling of snow depth by Hennessy ciated Tasman Sea warming due to climate change et al. (2003, 2008) and Hendrikx et al. (2013) shows a suggest increasing summer precipitation in SEA (Cai continuation of these declines. Regional-scale hydro- et al. 2005; Shi et al. 2008; Gallant et al. 2012). climatic modeling predicts rainfall and runoff to decrease Previous studies of synoptic circulation over SEA on average and to increase in extremity over coming have predominantly used manual-classification schemes, decades (Chiew et al. 2011). Meanwhile, demand for which are, by their nature, subjective and limited in the both water and energy are forecast to increase into the number of meteorological variables on which they are future (Christensen et al. 2007) resulting in increased based. The majority consider only the cool-season period. vulnerability of water resources that are already under Manual approaches are considered to be time-consuming, stress (Viviroli et al. 2011). Despite the importance of and, with the exception of Pook et al. (2014),themajority inflow-generating precipitation in the Snowy Mountains, of SEA studies have covered relatively short time periods there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, of a few decades at most. Several SEA studies have fo- historic climatological behavior of the synoptic weather cused particularly on the period of extended drought that systems that deliver precipitation to the region. persisted for much of the 1990s and 2000s in an attempt to The cool-season synoptic circulation over various re- understand the significant precipitation decline that oc- gions of SEA has been well studied (e.g., Wright 1989; curred during this period (e.g., Risbey et al. 2013). Studies Pook et al. 2006; Landvogt et al. 2008; Risbey et al. 2009; confined to shorter periods may not be fully representative
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